We're going to break big oil's hold on the American taxpayer by making their product easier to purchase

Not really the main focus of this post, but the difference between fundamentals-based predictions of 2026 House elections and polling-based predictions is *vast*. My fundamentals model suggests Dems picking up 40-ish seats. Polling models more like 10-15. smotus.substack.com/p/democrats-...

We need a complete shutdown of Frontier at DIA until we know what the hell is going on

It turns out they were only *mostly* dead

There's a line of thought that the US wasn't a full democracy until the Voting Rights Act of 1965. You could test that by gutting the VRA and seeing what happens to US democracy...

New at the Smotus Report: The range of forecasts for House elections is *wide*, but Democrats are still likely to take the majority, if more narrowly

Along with everything else going wrong, the last two episodes of “Hacks” sucked

Opinion | Democrats are the real racists. Also, here’s why I support the Confederate slave states furiously redrawing their maps to replace all Black Democrats with white Republicans.

Happy Mother's Day!

Happy Mother's Day

Doctors say that fluoride helps build strong teeth. A guy who snorts cocaine off toilet seats and takes raccoon penises home for “further study” says it causes autism. For busy parents, it can be hard to know who to trust.

A supremely fucked up thing would be if Democrats take the Senate but not the House because the Senate has become more reflective of the electorate

My "this is not a golden calf" cassock has congregation asking a lot of questions already answered by my cassock.

The real Epstein note

Spoke with @smotus.bsky.social about conspiracy theories, billionaires, and consumer sentiment. A throughline: Billionaires don't just try to buy elections. They also promote informational rot that steers people toward their patron politicians. Ending this vicious cycle has to be a top priority.

Road Rules

When was the last time a court invalidated a statewide election?

"Billionaires don't just try to buy elections. They also promote the conspiracy theories and malaise that steer people toward fascist politicians, who in turn allow billionaires to loot the country." Listen to @brianbeutler.bsky.social and @smotus.bsky.social: www.offmessage.net/p/saving-dem...

Listen to @smotus.bsky.social: "there’s a massive overlap between democratic erosion and racial backlash in this country." smotus.substack.com/p/racial-bac...

“Cosmopolitan communists” and “race hustlers” That train is never late

By next year we will be teaching with slates by whale oil lamps and I welcome it

RFK: I'm undermining food safety and vaccines and many other life-saving programs we consider part of normal life Also RFK: You're being depressed wrong

Senior academic who got tenure track offer in 2008 with one publication has job market advice

I'll be discussing how the numerous Dem 2028 candidates are positioning themselves in the very early stages of the race with two experts on the primary process, @smotus.bsky.social and @mschmitt9.bsky.social. Tune in if you can. open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Please join me and @brianbeutler.bsky.social for a live conversation about billionaires, the economy, conspiracies, and much much more! Today at 2PM EDT. open.substack.com/live-stream/...

I’ll be joining @perrybaconjr.bsky.social and Mark Schmitt for a discussion of the 2028 Democratic field, starting at noon EDT today open.substack.com/live-stream/...

In this piece at the Smotus Report, I describe how you can’t talk about democratic backsliding without talking about racial backlash. Our democracy is being undermined by people determined to unwind the Civil Rights Movement. smotus.substack.com/p/racial-bac...

A lot of good commentary on here about how a legend involving mermaids, cyclopses, giants, and literal fucking gods isn’t been portrayed accurately

Maple says American public wrongly views trees as wood

Need me some Ka$h Mash

I loved this conversation and the huge range of issues we covered

Pleasure having @smotus.bsky.social on the pod to talk about everything political scientists have got right about Trump over the last ~6 years. Plus we talk abt Dem strategy for 2028 and beyond. Can Ds avoid anti-incumbent backlash once they're back in power? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/deep-dive-...

Dersh once again defending Epstein and pedophilia. Really got to respect his commitment to the bit.

Oh, did he have a nazi tattoo as well?

The Sun is returning! Suck it, astrophage!

Join in Thursday at noon EDT as @perrybaconjr.bsky.social, Mark Schmitt, and I discuss the potential field for 2028 Democratic presidential candidates open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Please join me for a conversation with @brianbeutler.bsky.social about billionaires, conspiracy theories, the economy, and more! Thu 5/7 at 2PM EDT.

I'm looking forward to speaking either @gelliottmorris.com about polling, the economy, how Democrats should be running, and pretty much everything else! Noon EDT

Looking forward to speaking with @gelliottmorris.com at noon EDT!

Doing a live conversation on Substack at 12:00 PM ET with political scientist @smotus.bsky.social of smotus.substack.com to talk about political science and Trump, the Constitution, how Democrats will/should campaign in 2028, and more. Tune in! open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Good morning Denver!

New at the Smotus Report: What southern states are doing post-Callais is right out of the post-Reconstruction era

Long Island: Where the hell's Billy Joel? Brooklyn: Where the hell's Neil Diamond?

Finally listened to the @podsaveamerica.crooked.com interview with Ken Martin and good lord Martin is a train wreck.

...

The Forum's issue on poli sci fi -- deadline is 6/30

In this piece at The Smotus Report, I examine debates about how much to protect American democracy. Some GOPers worry about this but keep their concerns stifled when Trump is looking. Dems struggle with how much to repair/protect democracy or to just assume cooler heads will prevail in the future