Damn where have I heard that phrasing before?

From 2020: For anyone interested in protests and counter-mobilizations, check out @waroncars.bsky.social discussion of “using a vehicle as an instrument of terror” with Ari Weil, who studies *actual* vehicular attacks, the rising trend in the US and ~72 attacks against #BlackLivesMatter protests.

With CBS/YouGov approval coming in unchanged 41/59 looking more and more like there's either no rally effect or at best a very small one. It's worth making noise over this because there's a ton of "wag the dog" nonsense out there assuming that military action makes presidents popular.

A *very* rare case of the "moderate" (better: least conservative) GOPers actually doing something instead of caving. Don't expect it to continue, but I guess youneverknow...

I wrote about the attack on Venezuela at the newsletter today; please take a look if you can, thanks! open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...

everything is a shakedown for him

I am not a law professor so I can't speak to any of this, but an interesting thread by a law professor on MN law.

This is absolutely true...and it's also true that no one knows how to get from here to there. Doesn't make it less the case.

I've maintained a running list: www.ms.now/rachel-maddo... But I guess I'll have to update it tomorrow!

I'm too lazy to keep a running list of all the things that Trump has claimed to be spending tariff revenue on but it's a very long list, many times even his false version of that revenue, let alone the real numbers.

Gotta say that my feed is full of people complaining about how bad Dems are at messaging and who knows but somehow Trump is record-unpopular for a first year president, underwater on most issues, and Dems are doing great in elections, so *maybe* they're not actually as bad as y'all think.

"the Trump administration declares far-fetched emergencies and terrorist designations, which members of Congress must accept as truth to validate otherwise unacceptable actions." - @dbernstein.bsky.social goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/why-did-we...

ELB Book Corner: Julia Azari: “What Does History Tell Us about the Prospects for Impeachment in Trump’s Second Term?” electionlawblog.org?p=153716 @juliaazari.bsky.social

Showing that Trump II has for now slipped below Trump I and he now has the very worst net approval through at this point of any polling-era presidency. Impressive!

So I was out tonight but I hear that Trump announced he's doing Iran-Contra today instead of Watergate? Good, good.

"Turnabout Intruder" obviously.

When people start puffing out their chests and talking like the Athenian delegation in the Melian dialogue, it's because they are feeling powerful and invulnerable. That's how a lot of people on the right are feeling right now: it feels to them like they just proved that the US can ... 1/

Fortunately since Trump is the peace president it doesn't matter how many groups he and Hegseth chase out of the military oh wait.

Losing loser loses again.

4 divisions, 2 leagues. 1st round playoffs: 2nd place vs. opposite 1st place, all at 1st place team that starts with a win (so 1sts need 3 wins, 2nds need 4). Winners play regular 4 of 7 LCS, winners play WS. Yes, there are downsides, but it's the best solution. (Oh, and no major realignment).

!!!!!!! (Will Cook move it straight to lean from safe? Wouldn't be surprised).

ELB Book Corner: Julia Azari: “Election Interference is a Recurring Theme in Presidential Impeachment” electionlawblog.org?p=153713 @juliaazari.bsky.social

Overlapping the Venezuela raid, but no approval bump so far here vs. last week. Overlapping MC was +1. Ipsos, entirely post-raid, had a small positive approval change. Did (irresponsibly early?) look at the 1st polls in my item this morning. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/candidates...

Uh...article doesn't tell me where to go to volunteer for testing this, but I'm ready yesterday.

I for one welcome former Republicans to run for seats as Democrats, especially if they can offer cross-party appeal. But maybe in seats that are more competitive than Harris +64

The key point: The only people remaining to brief Trump are (for the most part at least) those who learned the lesson of never actually challenging whatever nonsense is in his brain. Presidents are rarely experts on anything, and the presidency has been set up to help them. Trump dismantled that.

Throughout 2024, I spoke with a number of Republicans who believed (and seriously worried) that Democrats would do the same thing if they lost in November. They didn’t, because the lunatics on the left are online weirdos, and the lunatics on the right are controlling all 3 branches of US government.

Five years ago today, many people simply woke up on January 6, 2021 and went to work in and around the Capitol to serve their country in ways big and small, only to be met with violence. Their stories are many, and they are still with me.

218-213 for now, with another Dem to be elected on Jan 31 and presumably ready to be sworn in on Feb 1, so a one-week CR would mean an even smaller GOP edge. The Mikie Sherrill special isn't until April 16.

Was going to post something about how ridiculous some of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame selections/omissions are, but the better Take is that it's a joke that isn't worth getting worked up about.

Of the many great DS9 moments (root beer, "I think I can live with it") we don't give enough respect for the Dukat/Weyoun discussion on whether to eradicate the population of Earth.

Like, how do you assume that gender differences are ENORMOUS and IMMUTABLE and CONSITUTIVE OF HUMAN NATURE and NECESSARY TO ALL HUMAN ORGANIZATION, NORMS, and BEHAVIORS, but not think that's something that you should understand if you want to understand the world?

this is what happens when you turn foreign policy into a kind of gender-affirming care for marginal elites who score three standard deviations north of the mean on fragile masculinity

This is not, in fact, the definition of who is in charge

Man. Trump v USA. What a bad decision 🌲🌲🌲

Dude could still announce today he'll put a rider on the upcoming CR overturning this, or zeroing out Kennedy's office, etc. - and that he won't vote for the CR unless it's included. My guess is he could round up at least a handful of Republicans to join him. Maybe a dozen or more. But nope.

Losing loser loses again.

OK if I see one person claiming that Miller/Trump are talking up Greenland as a "distraction" (from Venezuela? Something else?) I'm totally going to lose it.

A fair number of GOP incumbents (US House, state legislatures, etc) are presumably on the fence about filing for another term or not. This is the season for deciding, and it's certainly plausible that another Dem special pick-up or not in a mildly GOP district could make the difference for some.

I'm pleased to report that my forthcoming book is now available for pre-sale. What's more, if you become a paid subscriber to Tusk, I'll send you a complimentary copy of the book! More about the book below (1/4): smotus.substack.com/p/my-new-boo...

Another one where there's a majority, and likely a supermajority, for sane policy in both chambers of Congress...but Republicans won't act on their sincere (*and very popular!*) beliefs. It's a dysfunctional GOP problem. Again. As is so much of what's gone wrong.

I really value the folks I talk to on here, and also every time I have reason to go back and look at a pre-X Twitter post, I'm a little depressed to realize anew how many folks I used to talk to who are not On Here (or, frequently, On Anywhere)

Folks, there's little reason to believe DOJ will fuck THIS up. There's an experienced team of real AUSAs who've been working these cases for years (and got Maduro's key deputy to plead in June). SDNY is not as incompetent as DC, yet. SDNY/EDNY have done cases like this a lot.

🧵 The rot on America’s political right runs deep. Perhaps because of their growing numbers and influence, some on the right apparently seem to believe that the political success of the Republican party requires playing footsie with racists, bigots and antisemites. What are conservatives to do?

You should obviously read this (and for that matter Julia's book) but you might feel guilty about straying from reading her at GP/BP: goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/why-trumps... I'm not saying that adding a subscription/upgrading to paid would cure that, but worth a shot. In my opinion.

The Venezuela operation may raise the risks that the US strikes Iran again. I assess these risks in my conversation with @cnbc.com

Kudos to @profsaunders.bsky.social for consistently and brilliantly linking current foreign policy developments to scholarly literature for context. Extremely helpful!

The SSA is also engaging in unprecedented lying (and hyper-partisan communication) regarding agency activities. This is what their Facebook feed looks like. Reality: People are waiting over an hour for help, and 1 in 4 actually give up after waiting up to ~40 minutes www.nextgov.com/digital-gove...

Remember again that congressional leaders are not chosen for their public speaking skills (see: McConnell, but really just about all of them). And absolutely correct: The people who make a difference here and always are the GOP members of Congress who would prefer a republic but don't act on it.

Tried to tackle why Trump's actions in Venezuela feel like both a familiar and unprecedented disaster goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/why-trumps...