Great questions from local news in LA as I explain all the challenges arising from this war on Iran:

Here's my latest podcast with @cfr.org talking through how the US got into this war and what may be next:

Correct: "I was told repeatedly that this is a war without a plan, without a strategy, and without any clear understanding of where it leads or how it ends."

thousands of airstrikes across Iran, killing of top leaders, region-wide retaliation from Iran, and now State Department warnings for all US citizens in the Middle East to evacuate (meanwhile air traffic is shut down). This is war.

Ominous. Also why is Egypt here? It’s not in the Iran-Israel crossfire. This announcement means that the US State Department is ordering hundreds of thousands of US citizens in the Middle East (over 200,000 in Israel alone) to “depart now” on virtually nonexistent commercial transit.

This is not going well. What a reckless mess.

Inside the plan to kill Ali Khamenei - remarkable reporting here by Mehul Srivastava and James Shotter. ie "Nearly all the traffic cameras in Tehran had been hacked for years, their images encrypted and transmitted to servers in Tel Aviv and southern Israel." www.ft.com/content/bf99...

Here's my full conversation with @dassakaye.bsky.social about where things may be headed: www.globaldispatches.org/p/off-ramps-...

and it's not just a disconnect with Trump's statements. look at the target list taking out the top leadership, up to the SL. that's not about degrading Iran's missile capability.

all predictable fallout of a war of choice that still lacks a clear strategy or endgame.

"Trump administration officials acknowledged in closed-door briefings with congressional staff on Sunday that there was no intelligence suggesting Iran planned to attack U.S. forces first." www.reuters.com/world/us/pen...

Some basic problems with this: what was the US doing building up forces for 6 weeks after Trump's posting that 'help was on the way' in response to the protests? Of course Netanyahu wanted this war. But this is ultimately Trump's war. He decided to do what no president had done before.

I’ll be speaking with @dassakaye.bsky.social, author of the definitive book about US-Iran policy. What do you want to learn? open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Worth a read.

.. and now they have stricken Oman as well

Iran’s retaliation in the Gulf had been more extensive than I would have expected, striking all GCC states other than Oman and hitting civilian targets. This will only increase Iran’s isolation and is doubtful to change Trump’s calculus (after all they tried to prevent war and failed)

If all these high profile killings are confirmed, including SL, and if they happened in the early hours of the attack as some Israeli journalists are reporting, who has been running the retaliatory attacks across the region all day? Clearly some regime elements are surviving.

definitely big news if confirmed. but killing the SL is not yet the end of the Islamic Republic. it's a deeply entrenched system. recall killing Sinwar did not destroy Hamas; killing Nasrallah has not eradicated Hezbollah. they are weakened but not gone.

Big, if true.

I was hesitant to do book promo during this awful moment but if you're looking for context on US policy toward Iran, please check out my book.

Further expansion of war to maritime arena/global oil markets. Iran is clearly hoping to raise the costs on the US and its allies for launching this attack.

This war could end tomorrow and the US and the region will be living with the consequences for many years. You cannot put what Trump unleashed back in the box.

Horrific. I fear there will be many more stories like this in the coming weeks. www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

If reports are confirmed, it appears the US-Israel attack on Iran has already become a regional war, with swift Iranian retaliation against Israel but also against US bases across the GCC. Worst case scenarios could be playing out. Hopefully not, but this is not looking good.

Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/

Trump's kitchen sink of grievances against Iran are well-known. But it's not clear that this statement tells Americans why we're going to war with Iran now or what Trump is trying to accomplish through military force.

There was a time when Israelis used to debate how best to deal with Iran, and whether Netanyahu's existential framing was wise (or accurate given Israel's nuclear deterrent). But that debate is no more--unity across the political spectrum when it comes to Iran.

This.

So far Iran's retaliation has predictably targeted Israel and US forces based in the Gulf. The question now is how much damage, death and instability this war will inflict on Americans, Iranians, and people in the region given extensive US war aims and Iran's existential moment.

If the current leadership survives in any form they will consider that a victory given what now appears to be expansive US war objectives to topple the regime.

Trump: "No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight." Trump wants to show he's the American president that led to the downfall of the Islamic Republic. It's always about him, no matter the consequences. There is a reason no previous president has done this.

But what remains unclear is how exactly the Iranian people are supposed to 'take over' their government. none of this was thought through.

Trump: "When we are finished, take over your government" It's now perfectly clear this is not a limited military strike. This is war to bring down the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Clearly Trump did not intend to give negotiations more time. Just llke last June.

It's unfortunately happening--another joint US-Israel war on Iran. This is Trump's war. He will own the consequences but we will all live with them.

Important that major US media outlets are correcting the record on Trump's false claims about Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. Some learning from the run up to the 2003 Iraq war?

Few would have expected a deal at this stage and the odds of a sustainable agreement given dynamics in both Washington and Iran remain low. But at least the talks have bought time to figure out an off-ramp from Trump’s ill-conceived military buildup.

Trump’s Plan for Strikes on Iran carries major Risks – and the US Military knows it

The woman has no criminal record and is unsure what prompted the threat of removal. She fears being deported to Iran given her father's military service and her Christian faith.

Also here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6Z_...

Thx to Derek and Danny for a great conversation!

E238 - On the Brink with Iran w/ @dassakaye.bsky.social Dalia Dassa Kaye joins the program to talk about the possibility of war with Iran and the history of America's Iran policy. Link in the replies ⏬

If the story ever gets told, we'll likely find that there were many voices in the Pentagon pushing back-- and the only reason we're seeing this leak now is that none of them were able to dissuade the civilian policymakers from a clearly dangerous and misguided decision.

It would have made a lot more sense to debate these risks BEFORE the massive and costly deployment of US forces to the region Just the latest example of the rash and personalized decision making in this administration

"Washington ordered the departure of non-essential diplomats and their family members from Lebanon on Monday as concerns mount of a potential US military conflict with Iran."

agree no need for panic, but senior US officials should be far more careful in making statements like this knowing the general public doesn't understand these distinctions. or, there's the possibility that senior officials are doing this intentionally to generate support for an attack.

A second day of antigovernment protests erupted on university campuses in Iran’s two largest cities, according to student and human rights groups as well as videos, which were verified by The New York Times, despite a deadly state crackdown on unrest.

In asymmetric conflicts like the US and Iran, the weaker side will consider survival a victory. Iranian leaders appear to be planning for this.

In 2011 I wrote a piece on why bombing Iran was a bad idea. I called it a dangerous and unpredictable option that should be avoided. It's 15 years later and it's still a bad idea for nearly all the same reasons.

“Rarely in modern times has the United States prepared to conduct a major act of war with so little explanation and so little public debate.” www.nytimes.com/2026/02/19/u...