Helpful interview with expert on revolutions on what might be next for Iran at this pivotal moment.

i'm really glad i finally watched Andor so i know what's happening on this site right now.

Could we imagine this happening with Iran without a change in the regime?

Interesting analysis from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on why the ongoing Iran protests are different than previous rounds. What's still unclear is whether they will end differently. irananalytica.substack.com/p/why-this-r...

"It has now been 24 hours since Iran implemented a nationwide internet shutdown, with connectivity flatlining at 1% of ordinary levels. The ongoing digital blackout violates the fundamental rights and liberties of Iranians while masking regime violence.” - NetBlocks

the Iran protests may not have reached 2022 levels yet but it's clear something major is happening. combined with credible threats of force from the outside it's a serious crisis for the government. but no one knows how this will unfold, especially in such unpredictable times.

Iran plunged into internet blackout as protests over economy spread nationwide

Good. We need more of this. much more.

Elliot Ackerman: "it’s extremely risky to base a foreign policy around these types of operations. You can’t keep stepping up to the craps table and never expect to throw a losing roll.”

Good update on state of play in Iran as anti-government protests continue.

More astonishing public comments from Danish PM on Greenland: “I believe one should take the American president seriously when he says that he wants Greenland. But I will also make it clear that if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO..."

Kudos to @profsaunders.bsky.social for consistently and brilliantly linking current foreign policy developments to scholarly literature for context. Extremely helpful!

The Venezuela operation may raise the risks that the US strikes Iran again. I assess these risks in my conversation with @cnbc.com

Iran is not Venezuela. And another military strike on Iran is not inevitable. but i can see a logic for why the dynamics in Trump 2.0 could lead us there.

there is not a zero chance of this by any means. i've said many times that the 12-day war was more like a 12-day battle in a multi-year war. The Venezuela attack + ongoing protests may only make the next battle with Iran more likely.

great show--excited for 2nd season!

good. we need serious domestic debate not only about the legality of these actions but also the objectives, which are murkier by the hour.

So the US will maintain a military blockade to coerce Venezuela's not so new leadership to: 1. allow private investment in oil 2. stop narcotics trafficking. How will we know if these goals are met? How long does the US keep up this coercive posture?

where are folks getting legit news about what's happening on the ground in Venezuela?

looks like it. but question is regime change to what end? doesn't look like democracy is on the agenda, the regime itself is so far in place minus Maduro, and nothing else seems to be thought through.

Rep. Seth Moulton: "This is insane. What the hell are we doing? ... this is illegal."

This is not just about the future of Venezuela. This is about the future of American democracy. Please members of Congress, connect the dots before it’s too late.

Trump completely unleashed is a terrifying reality for America and the world.

A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

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This part of my assessment of the US and Iran just over a month ago seems relevant in light of Trump's post today

A US government that was serious about protecting Iranian people would not be deporting Iranians back to Iran against their will. www.pbs.org/newshour/pol...

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Surge of Economic Pain Pushes Iranians to the Streets www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/w...

So much for the ‘one and done’ logic of the June war. But the question becomes: is it viable for Israel/US to continue bombing Iran on a regular basis like Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Syria/Lebanon? The military, political, and economic costs could be much higher in this case.

Regardless of the veracity of the pardon claim, it should be clear if it wasn't already that expectations that Trump would press Netanyahu on Gaza (or for restraint on Iran) are unrealistic. They are political allies at the end of the day.

Of course this news is huge if confirmed, but meanwhile we're all staring at Bibi's matching outfit with Trump. That about sums up where we're at in the world right now.

"Although Trump’s plan explicitly states that Israel will progressively withdraw and hand over territory in Gaza to the International Stabilization Force, on the ground Israel is consolidating what appears to be a permanent military presence across more than half of Gaza."

As a researcher at RAND, Robert Lempert helps communities around the world plan for uncertain futures and survive disasters. After his home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire, he's been helping his own community become a global leader in wildfire resilience. https://lat.ms/3Y4LDOy

Important lessons and ideas for how to move forward with reconstruction and development in Gaza in the years ahead, following many other great reports from @rand.org on the topic. But all of this will require a political will in Israel (and the US) that does not seem to currently exist.

Many doubted US backing for an Israeli attack in 2025 based on the logic that Trump doesn't want war in the ME. The assumption proved wrong and can be wrong again, especially if the assumption is a new attack can be low cost and short.

👇 As they say, 'show not tell'

Yep, heavy rain in LA right now. Stay safe if you’re in the area!

Japan has been having some issues with bears lately. I was very happy to avoid an encounter while speaking on a campus in Akita!

I spent a great few days in Tokyo and Akita University with some of Japan's leading experts on the Middle East and terrific students to talk about my new @stanfordpress.bsky.social book, Enduring Hostility.

It’s really not funny that we are starting a war for no apparent reason.

Bad news. For all the talk in the NSS about spending less time in the ME, the reality is the US still has tens of thousands of forces in the region.

Thanks to @burklecenter.bsky.social for hosting an engaging salon with many good friends last night on my new book on why the US-Iran relationship remains so hostile.

This is a must watch talk. Terrifying but also empowering.

"The research reveals, in stark terms, that the Trump administration is driving a much more fundamental shift in the United States’ positioning in the world, with a foreign policy that prizes force and narrow alignment over long-term stability, rights, and human development."

No other agency of the U.S. government has saved more lives per dollar than U.S.A.I.D.—it supplied medicine, food, and staffing for some of the most desperate and vulnerable. A new short documentary shows the impact of its dismantling. newyorkermag.visitlink.me/2a5Jm5

Why is the Iranian American relationship so broken? Virtually every American administration since Carter has tried diplomacy with Iran, but why doesn't it stick? To discuss, @janekinninmont.bsky.social is joined by Dalia Dassa Kaye.

Really enjoyed speaking with @janekinninmont.bsky.social on the @disordershow.bsky.social podcast about my new book Enduring Hostility and all things US-Iran: www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpIo...

Pleased to see Enduring Hostility included in Le Grand Continent's 10 books to read in December list: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/11/2...