I didn't see this NYT report confirming the carrier move. Clearly Trump is leaving his options open + Israel clearly didn't feel there was enough prep should a strike happen. It shouldn't happen.

Trump hit pause on a military strike on Iran but has not ruled it out. In this new @justsecurity.org piece I argue that his aims are unclear and military strikes would not advance any conceivable US goal. I lay out alternative ideas for how to support the people of Iran in this time of crisis.

My new piece in @justsecurity.org 👇

Very helpful and data-informed piece from @mahsaalimardani.bsky.social on the AI manipulation of media content coming out of Iran and how it benefits the government

Iran’s security forces have carried out mass killings after protests escalated on January 8. Despite a nationwide internet shutdown, Human Rights Watch has been able to verify videos and gather witness accounts. Read now: https://bit.ly/3YIRtW0

Even as reports suggest Trump may have decided to hold off on attacking Iran, the Pentagon is moving a carrier strike group toward Middle East region. thehill.com/policy/defen...

Reports in Al Arabiya and other non-US sources but no official USG confirmation on carrier move.

Seeing reports US moving an aircraft carrier to the Middle East. Another military strike on Iran is a misguided and dangerous move—not the way to help protesters and not clear what they’ll accomplish, all while raising risks on US forces and civilians in the region.

There is no plan. Nothing is thought through. Many folks in Washington have not yet absorbed this alarming reality.

Useful basic overview of where Iranian protests stand and what led to them.

The focus is now on Iran but the war in Gaza is not over; Israel still occupies half of the territory, Hamas is still there, and the humanitarian situation remains dire.

If you're in the area tomorrow please join me and Abbas Milani for a talk about my book and the current state of play of US-Iran at this pivotal moment.

RFE/RL, which has sued Kari Lake to block her termination of its federal funding grants, resumes shortwave radio broadcasts into Iran following the imposition of an internet blackout by the Islamic Republic. about.rferl.org/article/radio...

there are critical ways to support Iranian protesters other than using the US military: --ramp up internet censorship circumvention tools --lift the visa ban on Iranians seeking asylum in US --diplomacy to rally int'l condemnation (but harder to do with US pulling out of democracy/human rts orgs)

An unfortunate example of how the consequences of military actions are not always what you want or expect, and make Americans less safe.

The news that's coming out of Iran despite the continued internet blackout is horrific and makes it clear the regime is using deadly force on protesters. Trump's redline has been crossed. The possibility of a US strike has grown, with all the unpredictable consequences.

Helpful interview with expert on revolutions on what might be next for Iran at this pivotal moment.

i'm really glad i finally watched Andor so i know what's happening on this site right now.

Could we imagine this happening with Iran without a change in the regime?

Interesting analysis from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on why the ongoing Iran protests are different than previous rounds. What's still unclear is whether they will end differently. irananalytica.substack.com/p/why-this-r...

"It has now been 24 hours since Iran implemented a nationwide internet shutdown, with connectivity flatlining at 1% of ordinary levels. The ongoing digital blackout violates the fundamental rights and liberties of Iranians while masking regime violence.” - NetBlocks

the Iran protests may not have reached 2022 levels yet but it's clear something major is happening. combined with credible threats of force from the outside it's a serious crisis for the government. but no one knows how this will unfold, especially in such unpredictable times.

Iran plunged into internet blackout as protests over economy spread nationwide

Good. We need more of this. much more.

Elliot Ackerman: "it’s extremely risky to base a foreign policy around these types of operations. You can’t keep stepping up to the craps table and never expect to throw a losing roll.”

Good update on state of play in Iran as anti-government protests continue.

More astonishing public comments from Danish PM on Greenland: “I believe one should take the American president seriously when he says that he wants Greenland. But I will also make it clear that if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO..."

Kudos to @profsaunders.bsky.social for consistently and brilliantly linking current foreign policy developments to scholarly literature for context. Extremely helpful!

The Venezuela operation may raise the risks that the US strikes Iran again. I assess these risks in my conversation with @cnbc.com

Iran is not Venezuela. And another military strike on Iran is not inevitable. but i can see a logic for why the dynamics in Trump 2.0 could lead us there.

there is not a zero chance of this by any means. i've said many times that the 12-day war was more like a 12-day battle in a multi-year war. The Venezuela attack + ongoing protests may only make the next battle with Iran more likely.

great show--excited for 2nd season!

good. we need serious domestic debate not only about the legality of these actions but also the objectives, which are murkier by the hour.

So the US will maintain a military blockade to coerce Venezuela's not so new leadership to: 1. allow private investment in oil 2. stop narcotics trafficking. How will we know if these goals are met? How long does the US keep up this coercive posture?

where are folks getting legit news about what's happening on the ground in Venezuela?

looks like it. but question is regime change to what end? doesn't look like democracy is on the agenda, the regime itself is so far in place minus Maduro, and nothing else seems to be thought through.

Rep. Seth Moulton: "This is insane. What the hell are we doing? ... this is illegal."

This is not just about the future of Venezuela. This is about the future of American democracy. Please members of Congress, connect the dots before it’s too late.

Trump completely unleashed is a terrifying reality for America and the world.

A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

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This part of my assessment of the US and Iran just over a month ago seems relevant in light of Trump's post today

A US government that was serious about protecting Iranian people would not be deporting Iranians back to Iran against their will. www.pbs.org/newshour/pol...

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Surge of Economic Pain Pushes Iranians to the Streets www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/w...

So much for the ‘one and done’ logic of the June war. But the question becomes: is it viable for Israel/US to continue bombing Iran on a regular basis like Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Syria/Lebanon? The military, political, and economic costs could be much higher in this case.

Regardless of the veracity of the pardon claim, it should be clear if it wasn't already that expectations that Trump would press Netanyahu on Gaza (or for restraint on Iran) are unrealistic. They are political allies at the end of the day.

Of course this news is huge if confirmed, but meanwhile we're all staring at Bibi's matching outfit with Trump. That about sums up where we're at in the world right now.

"Although Trump’s plan explicitly states that Israel will progressively withdraw and hand over territory in Gaza to the International Stabilization Force, on the ground Israel is consolidating what appears to be a permanent military presence across more than half of Gaza."

As a researcher at RAND, Robert Lempert helps communities around the world plan for uncertain futures and survive disasters. After his home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire, he's been helping his own community become a global leader in wildfire resilience. https://lat.ms/3Y4LDOy