It should be obvious by this point that just because Trump tells a reporter ‘Iran said it would do x, y, and z’ doesn’t make it true. Maybe misinformation is good for markets but it’s not how negotiations on complex issues work

Iran got the Lebanon ceasefire (hopefully it sticks). Its 2nd big condition was release of frozen assets--this will be a harder sell in the US context but with Trump seeming eager for exit ramp it could happen.

We will need to wait and see what actually happens on the ground (or sea in this case...). What matters practically is how commercial shipping responds to these conflicting messages.

Good analysis on what China is gaining from US strategic setbacks in the Iran war and why China is not going to bail the US out by leaning on Iran (nor is it likely to help Iran much...)

Great joining @kqedforum.bsky.social this morning to talk US-Iran with @sangernyt.bsky.social and Robin Wright. Even without a return to military conflict, there's no easy offramp and after 7 weeks of death and destruction it's unclear the outcome will leave us in a better place.

Given Israel and Hezbollah are the parties actually doing the fighting, it's pretty critical that both sides adhere to it. There's still a gap between the Trump administration's rosy assessments and the reality on the ground, where relentless Israeli bombing continues in the south.

Many thanks to @jwassers.bsky.social and his UCI colleagues for hosting an engaging conversation on Enduring Hostility yesterday. A great community and sharp students!

US blockade yet another policy made on the whim and unlikely to solve the Strait problem that didn't exist before this costly war started. My interview with @elexmichaelson.bsky.social last night

Good to know the US is ending its 47 year conflict with Iran. Not sure the Iranians, the region, or the rest of the world are seeing it that way (or Americans for that matter).

After all the death and destruction and a war that has upended the global economy it's all down to 2 issues: 1. reopening the Strait of Hormuz (a problem that didn't exist before the war) 2. nuclear: a problem Trump claimed was solved last June but that will require pretty familiar compromises

Here's where we are: A costly military attack on Iran failed to achieve still unclear goals and created a new global energy crisis Now we're trying a blockade on Iran's ports (after 1 day of diplomacy) fraught with risk and little evidence this will force Iran's capitulation.

this language harkens back to the line attributed to Kissinger--is Iran a country or a cause? For many policymakers and analysts, it's difficult to imagine that Iran's leaders are threatening the region because they view it as their best gambit for survival and leverage, not because of ideology.

This Chinese position appears to contradict the assumption by those arguing in favor of the US blockade option (Richard Haass, Dennis Ross, etc.) that flipping the script would push the Chinese to pressure the Iranians to back down.

I had missed this important piece explaining the dangers of ditching a normal policy process and why analysts and journalists are misguided by trying to fit Trump 2.0 decisions into a rational framework. The harsh realities we are facing in the Iran war underscore these dangers.

This answers my question. Bottom line is if the US blockade happens no oil is getting out—more pain for all of us.

If a US blockade starts tomorrow it’s not likely the ceasefire will hold until April 22.

This @theguardian.com piece reports that the US sent 300 officials to the Islamabad talks. Has this number been reported/confirmed anywhere else? Other reporting suggested a small group of 5 or so US officials with Vance.

People will be closely studying how Hungary's opposition pulled off their win in such a pro-incumbent system. Important to note that the theme was corruption. Democrats need to get much better at calling out Trump's corruption.

The thing is, this is not like previous rounds. It's no longer just about the nuclear issue It's occurring during a war that initially tried to topple the Iranian regime and killed its top leadership There is no normal d-m process in Washington Analysis needs to adjust to these new realities

Amazing news for the people of Hungary that could have a huge positive ripple effect around the world. Time to turn the global slide toward authoritarianism and repression around!

Let’s say this works and Iran’s oil can’t get out. But does any oil get out? How will the blockade reassure shipping from other nations than it’s safe to transit the Strait during what are continuing war conditions? Isn’t this a strategy where everyone loses?

Trump wants an Iranian surrender. This is a predictable disaster the entire world will pay for. If it wasn't clear already there is no exit strategy.

Less than 24 hours and an ultimatum is not a negotiation

My post from the first day of the war feels particularly relevant this week.

It's gotten lost amidst everything else, but a sitting Vice President traveling overseas to speak at a campaign rally for a flailing authoritarian leader is such a massive violation of both norms and democratic values

This.

Also on the historic nature of talks, it’s important to note this is not the first time there’s been direct contact between high-level US and Iranian officials since 1979. From the 1980’s to post 9/11 to Kerry’s regular engagement with Iranian FM in nuclear talks. But VP is highest level yet

Meanwhile Israel-Lebanon talks postponed. Notable that Iran went ahead with Islamabad talks in full force (60 member delegation!) without ceasefire in Lebanon

Positive development in what has become a net negative war for the US and the world. But the US is entering the talks with a weaker hand. And US goals are still unclear beyond reopening Hormuz.

watching on NASA's site--calling it a textbook mission. Bravo!

If @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social is right and Hormuz has evolved into a more important source of leverage for Iran than the nuclear program, does that open up possibilities for negotiating a resolution on the nuclear front that were not apparent before the war?

The Islamabad talks are at best about turning a tenuous temporary ceasefire into a longer-term ceasefire. We are very very far from talks about a lasting peace.

The Trump administration is coming into the ceasefire talks with a weak hand after failing to achieve strategic gains from this costly war. Among the many reasons these talks will be difficult, assuming they happen. My thoughts on CNN this morning.

Lebanon’s 10 minutes from hell ft.trib.al/QH0YsC9

👇 and imagine if this ceasefire completely breaks down

Netanyahu says Israel will continue attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon to protect residents in the north. Both Hezbollah and Israel need to stop attacks and give the already difficult truce a chance.

Some good news. But reports indicate that these talks will proceed without a ceasefire in Lebanon. Trying to get a more sustainable ceasefire with Iran will be extremely difficult if attacks in Lebanon continue.

US-Iran ceasefire violations - Iranian missiles at Israel - Israel hit Iran oil refinery - Iran hit Saudi Arabia pipeline - Iran fired missiles at UAE, Qatar - Iran fired drones at Kuwait, Bahrain Massive Israeli airstrikes in Beirut as US says Lebanon NOT included in ceasefire

Many thanks to @marieharf.bsky.social and @perryworldhouse.bsky.social for hosting an engaging conversation about my book and the current state of play on US-Iran at a pivotal moment.

👇

This is not a ceasefire. It’s on Trump to get the Israelis on board. This was a joint US-Israeli war.

This is the paradox: a war meant to contain Iran may have reinforced its strength. In modern conflict, you don’t have to win — you just have to endure, impose costs, and outlast your opponent. That may be exactly what Iran has done. #Geopolitics #Iran #MiddleEast

Horrible.

The outcome of this war was not going to bring decisive strategic gains for the US; even if the ceasefire holds it’s looking more like significant losses (on top of the death and destruction of the past 6 weeks). Still, this would be the best bad outcome we could expect.

More ceasefire violations on day 1.

And Israeli compliance?

Bad news. Still no clarity on Lebanon as part of the ceasefire.

The fragile truce does not bring a permanent end to the war between foes burdened by decades of distrust. Read the full story here: ft.trib.al/B2dJJgT

We didn't deserve this day.