François Heisbourg
@fheisbourg.bsky.social
📤 11364
📥 160
📝 1581
Senior adviser (Europe), IISS, Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1410 1. Hemispheric regime change: US bombs Caracas and SOFs seize Nicolas Maduro & wife 2. Foreign intelligence service chief Ivaschchenko replaces Budanov as chief of HUR 3. ~60 Shaheds launched, 15 hits
about 7 hours ago
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
1 day ago
⚡️Zelensky to appoint Foreign Intelligence Service chief as Budanov's replacement, President's Office says. Oleh Ivashchenko will lead Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR), a source in the President's Office told the Kyiv Independent shortly after Zelensky named Budanov his new chief of staff.
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Zelensky to appoint Foreign Intelligence Service chief as Budanov's replacement, President's Office says
The news comes a few hours after Zelensky announced he would appoint Kyrylo Budanov, head of the military intelligence, to take charge of the President’s Office.
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-appoint-foreign-intelligence-service-chief-as-budanovs-replacement-presidents-office-says/
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We'll see if the Oslo committee did much better when it gave the Peace prize to Ms Machado?
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about 7 hours ago
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No Gostomel in Venezuela: US SOFs swoop in and grab Maduro and wife
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about 7 hours ago
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SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1409 1. ZELENSKY: end of war, not end of 🇺🇦 2. PUTIN: no mention of peace in new year's message 3. 🇺🇦 joins EU's single roaming zone 4. CIA rejects Putin's claim re strike vs dacha 5. ~70 Shaheds launched, 27 hits
1 day ago
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
3 days ago
⚡️Finland detains Russia-linked ship suspected of sabotage. Early in the morning on Dec. 31, an undersea communications cable linking Finland and Estonia was reported damaged. The cargo ship Fitburg, sailing from Russia, may be responsible, authorities said.
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Finland detains Russia-linked ship suspected of sabotage
Early in the morning on Dec. 31, the Finnish telecommunications service provider Elisa reported that an undersea cable linking Finland and Estonia had been damaged. The cargo ship Fitburg, sailing fr...
https://kyivindependent.com/finland-detains-russia-linked-ship-suspected-of-sabotage/
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
3 days ago
⚡️'We want the end of the war — not the end of Ukraine,' Zelensky says in New Year address. "A Budapest-style piece of paper will not satisfy Ukraine. Ukraine does not need a Minsk-style meticulously drafted trap. My signature will be under a strong agreement," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
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'We want the end of the war — not the end of Ukraine,' Zelensky says in New Year address
"A Budapest-style piece of paper will not satisfy Ukraine. Ukraine does not need a Minsk-style meticulously drafted trap. My signature will be under a strong agreement," Zelensky said in his address o...
https://kyivindependent.com/we-want-the-end-of-the-war-not-the-end-of-ukraine-zelensky-says-in-new-year-address/
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The Kyiv Independent
2 days ago
⚡️ CIA rejects Putin's claim of Ukrainian attack on his residence, CNN reports. The report confirms Ukraine's original denial and undercuts claims made by the Kremlin.
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CIA rejects Putin's claim of Ukrainian attack on his residence, CNN reports
The report confirms Ukraine's original denial and undercuts claims made by the Kremlin.
https://kyivindependent.com/after-putin-claim-to-trump-cia-rejects-allegation-of-ukraine-attack-on-his-residence-cnn-reported/
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
2 days ago
⚡️ Putin's New Year speech lauds Russia's war, makes no mention of peace in Ukraine. Putin's speech avoided any mention of Ukraine, peace talks, or plans to bring the war to an end in 2026.
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Putin's New Year speech lauds Russia's war, makes no mention of peace in Ukraine
Putin's speech avoided any mention of Ukraine, peace talks, or plans to bring the war to an end in 2026.
https://kyivindependent.com/we-believe-in-our-victory-putins-new-year-speech-shows-no-intention-to-end-the-war-in-2026/
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
2 days ago
⚡️Ukraine enters EU's single mobile roaming zone. Ukraine formally joined the European Union's single roaming zone on Jan. 1, allowing Ukrainian citizens to use their mobile phone service across the European bloc without incurring additional charges.
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Ukraine enters EU's single mobile roaming zone
Ukraine formally joined the European Union's single roaming zone on Jan. 1, allowing Ukrainian citizens to use their mobile phone service across the European bloc without incurring additional charges.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-enters-eus-single-mobile-roaming-zone/
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Savchenko Volodymyr
2 days ago
‼️ How Russia attacked Ukraine on New Year's Eve: a map of the flight of enemy targets. Main directions: Lutsk, Volyn, Odesa, Konotop, Zatoka. The main target is energy infrastructure.
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SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1408 Ringing in the New Year 1. Even Trump no longer appears to be buying story of purported drone strike vs Putin dacha 2. Macron announces January 6 meeting in Paris of countries supporting 🇺🇦 3. ~130 Shaheds launched, 24 hits
2 days ago
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Poulet Volant
2 days ago
Guerre d'Ukraine | 31/12/25 Secteurs : 🌐 Kostiantynivka🔹U251231-0924 🌐 Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad-Rodynske🔹U251231-0930 🌐 Novopavlivka🔹U251231-0933 🌐 Orikhiv-Huliaipole🔹U251231-0944
#UkraineRussianWar
#GuerreEnUkraine
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SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1407 1. US NATO PERMREP Whitaker says attack on Putin dacha may not have happened 2. ~80 Shaheds launched, 20 hits 3. Odesa struck again 4. Rosneft Tuapse oil refinery burns; Ditto Temp TSKV oil depot in Rybinsk (Yaroslavl). 4. 🇺🇦 computes 🇷🇺 casualties at 1.2 million since Feb 2022
3 days ago
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
4 days ago
"It is unclear whether it actually happened," Whitaker told Fox News on Dec. 30. President Volodymyr Zelensky previously dismissed Putin's claim as "another lie," warning that Moscow could use the allegation to justify potential strikes, most likely targeting Kyiv.
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Grand Continent
3 days ago
Poutine a souhaité une bonne année à 36 dirigeants — dont Trump, le pape Léon XIV et Orbán
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/12/3...
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À quels dirigeants Poutine a-t-il souhaité une bonne année 2026 ?
Vladimir Poutine a adressé ses meilleurs vœux pour l’année 2026 à 36 chefs d’État et de gouvernement. La liste — qui inclut désormais Donald Trump — des dirigeants ayant reçu un appel ou une carte des...
https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/12/30/poutine-a-souhaite-une-bonne-annee-a-36-dirigeants-dont-trump-le-pape-leon-xiv-et-orban/
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NOELREPORTS
3 days ago
More footage is surfacing from the burning oil depot in Rybinsk. Another hit deep inside Russia.
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NOELREPORTS
3 days ago
Russia’s MoD has released a map allegedly showing the flight path of Ukrainian drones targeting Putin’s residence. Meanwhile, no evidence of the strike has been provided, and even Kremlin narratives contradict each other. 🙃
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SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1406 1. Trump as Putin's shill. Lavrov asserts 91 🇺🇦 drones targetted Putin dacha near Novgorod; no evidence offerd. Putin says same to Trump. Trump believes him & expresses anger vs Zelensky. No US intel cited 2. ~40 Shaheds launches; 8 hits
4 days ago
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
5 days ago
⚡️ 'They are looking for a pretext' — Zelensky denies drone attack on Putin's residence Zelensky dismissed Russia's claims that Ukrainian drones attempted to attack Putin's state residence as "another lie," warning that Moscow is using the allegation to justify potential strikes on Kyiv.
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'They are looking for a pretext' — Zelensky denies drone attack on Putin's residence
Zelensky dismissed Russian claims that Ukrainian drones targeted Putin’s residence as “another lie,” warning Moscow is using the allegation as a pretext for possible strikes on Kyiv and government bui...
https://kyivindependent.com/they-are-preparing-the-ground-for-new-strikes-zelensky-denies-drone-attack-on-putins-residence/
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
5 days ago
A new poll found 76% of Ukrainians consider it unacceptable to recognize Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories as part of Russia in exchange for ending the war; Zelensky dismissed Russia's claims that Ukrainian drones attempted to attack Putin's state residence as another lie; and more.
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Ukraine war latest updates: 76% of Ukrainians reject recognizing occupied territories as Russian to end war, poll finds (9)
Live coverage of Russia’s war against Ukraine with breaking news and frontline updates, updated 9 times today. More than half of Ukrainians are against recognizing the Russian-occupied territories of ...
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-12-29/
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Unimpeachable source
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4 days ago
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François Heisbourg
MeidasTouch
5 days ago
Zelenskyy calls Russia’s claim of a strike on one of Putin’s residences a “complete fabrication,” a lie designed to sabotage diplomacy, justify more attacks on Kyiv, and excuse Moscow’s refusal to end the war. He warns the world must not stay silent as Russia tries to derail peace.
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François Heisbourg
Oliver Alexander
5 days ago
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NOELREPORTS
5 days ago
It gets even better. Putin’s advisor Ushakov claims Trump was “shocked and outraged” by Ukraine’s alleged drone attack on Putin’s residence. Ukraine has denied the accusation, calling it a Russian fabrication to justify further escalation. No further comment....
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WarTranslated (Dmitri)
5 days ago
"87% of Ukrainians want peace, at the same time, 85% are against withdrawing from Donbass." - Zelensky in an interview with Fox News.
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
5 days ago
⚡️US security guarantees set for 15 years, with Ukraine pushing for extension, Zelensky says.
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US security guarantees set for 15 years, with Ukraine pushing for extension, Zelensky says
"I told (Trump) that we would like to consider guarantees for 30, 40, or even 50 years, and that would be a historic decision by president Trump. The president said he would think about it," President...
https://kyivindependent.com/us-security-guarantees-outlined-for-15-years-with-ukraine-pushing-for-extention/
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François Heisbourg
Le Monde
5 days ago
EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : les Etats-Unis ont proposé à Kiev des garanties de sécurité « solides » pour quinze ans prolongeables, annonce Volodymyr Zelensky
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EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : les Etats-Unis ont proposé à Kiev des garanties de sécurité « solides » pour quinze ans prolongeables, annonce Volodymyr Zelensky
Emmanuel Macron, qui s’est entretenu avec le président ukrainien après la rencontre de ce dernier avec Donald Trump en Floride, a par ailleurs affirmé que les alliés de Kiev se réuniront début janvier.
https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2025/12/29/en-direct-guerre-en-ukraine-les-etats-unis-ont-propose-a-kiev-des-garanties-de-securite-solides-pour-quinze-ans-prolongeables-annonce-volodymyr-zelensky_6659606_3210.html
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SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1405 1. No breakthrough at Trump Zelensky meet. Trump says Putin "was very generous in this feeling toward 🇺🇦 succeeding" 2. 🇷🇺 says ballistic missile intercepted near Tula. A new 🇺🇦 capability? 3. Khanskaya air base hit 4. Slow drone nite. ~15 Shaheds, 4 hits
5 days ago
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François Heisbourg
Financial Times
6 days ago
The US president said ‘thorny’ issues remain on ending Europe’s biggest land war in 80 years ‘but we are getting closer’.
ft.trib.al/YBKaIRp
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Yes, just a little strange...
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5 days ago
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
6 days ago
⚡️Explosions reportedly rock Russia's Khanskaya military airfield. Explosions reportedly rocked the Khanskaya military airfield near the southern Russian city of Maykop as air defenses were engaged early on Dec. 29.
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Explosions reportedly rock Russia's Khanskaya military airfield
Explosions reportedly rocked the Khanskaya military airfield near the southern Russian city of Maykop as air defenses were engaged late on Dec. 29.
https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-reportedly-rock-russias-khanskaya-military-airfield/
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François Heisbourg
Géopolitique
5 days ago
Asie / La Chine engage des exercices militaires d’ampleur autour de Taïwan
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La Chine engage des exercices militaires d’ampleur autour de Taïwan
La Chine a débuté, lundi, l'opération "Mission justice 2025" autour de Taïwan, des exercices militaires "majeurs" avec des tirs à munitions réelles. Taipei a dit déployer les "forces appropriées", ajo...
https://www.france24.com/fr/asie-pacifique/20251229-chine-annonce-exercices-militaires-majeurs-autour-taiwan-provoquant-ire-ile-operation-munitions-indignation
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François Heisbourg
POLITICO Europe
5 days ago
Donald Trump is unpopular in Europe, according to the new POLITICO Poll. Even among the supporters of right-wing populist parties he sees as allies.
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Trump is unpopular in Europe — even among right-wing populist supporters, POLITICO Poll shows
The US president gets favorable views from only about a third of people who support the parties Trump wants to see win power in France and Germany.
https://www.politico.eu/article/politico-poll-international-populism-donald-trump/
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Bosphorus Observer
6 days ago
Russian flagged bulker Irtysh delivered stolen grain from occupied Sevastopol, for the second time, to Houthi controlled Al-Salif. Irtysh returned from Houthi controlled port of Yemen, transited Bosphorus and returned to the Black Sea.
#T
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SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1404 1. Zelensky holds telcons with Euro NATO leaders. Meeting with Trump at 19h CET 2. 🇷🇺 claims fall of Huliaipole & Myrnohrad. 🇺🇦 denies 3. 🇨🇦 gives CDN $2.5 bn 4. Syzran (Samara obl) oil refinery hit (Yuganskneftegaz) 5. Repairs begin ZNPP (local cease fire) 6. 30 Shaheds; 9 sites hit
6 days ago
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
7 days ago
⚡️Canada to provide $1.8 billion in economic aid to Ukraine. Canada will provide Ukraine with $2.5 billion Canadian dollars ($1.8 billion) in economic aid to Ukraine, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Dec. 27.
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Canada to provide $1.8 billion in economic aid to Ukraine
Canada will provide Ukraine with $2.5 billion Canadian dollars ($1.8 billion) in economic aid to Ukraine, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Dec. 27.
https://kyivindependent.com/canada-to-provide-1-8-billion-in-economic-aid-to-ukraine/
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The Kyiv Independent
7 days ago
⚡️Ukraine denies Russia's claims of capturing key front-line cities ahead of Zelensky-Trump meeting. Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast and Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are not under Russian control, Ukraine's General Staff said, dismissing the Kremlin's claims as "the weapon of disinformation."
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Ukraine denies Russia's claims of capturing key front-line cities ahead of Zelensky-Trump meeting
Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast and Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are not under Russian control, Ukraine's General Staff said, dismissing the Kremlin's claims as "the weapon of disinformation."
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-denies-russias-claims-of-capturing-key-front-line-cities-ahead-of-zelensky-trump-meeting/
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
7 days ago
⚡️Russia's Syzran Oil Refinery under attack by Ukrainian drones, media reports. The refinery was attacked multiple times in the night, residents claimed. An electrical substation in Syzran was also hit, causing blackouts in the city.
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Russia's Syzran Oil Refinery under attack by Ukrainian drones, media reports
The refinery was attacked multiple times in the night, residents claimed. An electrical substation in Syzran was also hit, causing blackouts in the city.
https://kyivindependent.com/russias-syzran-oil-refinery-under-attack-by-ukrainian-drones-media-reports/
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*Iskander-M included in Kinzhal tally
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7 days ago
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My annotations on last night's big raid: 6 out of 10 Kinzhal down 23 out of 29 cruise missiles down (Kh-101, Iskander-K, Kalibr) Shaheds: ~300 launched, 30 hits
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7 days ago
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SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1403 1. Massive bombing of Kyiv, including by Kinzhal as Zelensky prepares to meet Trump 2. Orezhnik base spotted at Kirchev in Belarus
7 days ago
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May be a good time for 🇵🇱 to become a fully-fledged participant in NATO's nuclear sharing
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7 days ago
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François Heisbourg
NOELREPORTS
7 days ago
Footage from Kyiv shows the moment a drone strikes a residential high rise in the Pozniaky district. Another direct and deliberate attack on civilian housing.
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WarTranslated (Dmitri)
7 days ago
Russia is likely deploying nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missiles at a former airbase near Krichev in eastern Belarus, US researchers found from satellite imagery.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
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(To be confirmed)
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8 days ago
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SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1402 1. Zelensky Xmas telcon with Witkoff & Jared: 'slow but steady progress'; says meeting with Trump soon 2. Orenburg obl. gas processing plant hit 3. Odesa/ Mikolayiv area ports/2 vessels hit 4. 26 leakers out of ~60 Shaheds. 1 Iskander-M strike
8 days ago
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François Heisbourg
The Kyiv Independent
8 days ago
⚡️President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine and the U.S. had agreed to meet "in the near future," suggesting there could be progress in peace talks to end Russia's war before the New Year.
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'A lot can be decided before New Year' — Zelensky says he and Trump plan to meet in 'near future'
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine and the U.S. had agreed to meet "in the near future," suggesting there could be progress in peace talks to end Russia's war before the New Year.
https://kyivindependent.com/a-lot-can-be-decided-before-new-year-zelensky-plans-to-meet-trump/
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Next door to China and N Korea
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8 days ago
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CNN
8 days ago
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a “very good” conversation with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on Christmas Day as negotiations over the terms of a potential peace deal continued.
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Ukrainian and US negotiators discuss peace deal on Christmas Day | CNN
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a “very good” conversation with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on Christmas Day as negotiations over th...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/25/europe/ukrainian-us-negotiators-discuss-peace-deal-on-christmas-day-latam-intl?Date=20251226&Profile=CNN&utm_content=1766739900&utm_medium=social&utm_source=bluesky
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