SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1307 1. Putin says he's ready to extend the NEW START by a year to 2027 if Trump does so too 2. 🇺🇦 SOFs hit S-400 Triumf TEL & radar in Kaluga oblast 3. Only 11 Shahed/Gerber leakers out of 141 launches

Pass on the message to your friend Victor Orbán

⚡️US move to ease Belavia sanctions raises fears of spare parts reaching Russia, Politico reports. There is growing concern that U.S.-made aircraft components could be diverted to Russian airlines, which face acute shortages of spare parts and maintenance capacity under Western sanctions.

⚡️ Ukraine strikes Russian S-400 air defense system in western Russia. A launcher and a radar system of a Russian S-400 Triumph air defense system were hit during a Ukrainian drone strike on Kaluga Oblast, the Special Operations Forces reported on Sept. 22.

The most popoulous landlocked country being Ethiopia. PM Abiy says that the country should no longer be a "prisoner of geography", spurring fears about war across the border in Eritrea. Geography does not define a country's destiny, but what states make of it.

Should be OK with Trump given his previously stated views on strategic nuclear Russia US relations. Not a bad thing unless Trump feels obliged to give something to Putin in exchange of what is a straightforward quid pro quo (I sadly assume Trump will)

En direct, guerre en Ukraine : Vladimir Poutine propose de respecter pendant un an de plus le traité de désarmement nucléaire New Start

Basically correct

Trump may officially not leave NATO. The Russians will keep pushing in the Baltics until one of their planes is shot at or shut down. Then the Russians will escalate, at which point Trump will say it’s the Europeans who started the shooting so America is not intervening.

Time for Framce to announce its new stance

I'd missed this one. Nice hit

⚡️Slovakia and Hungary said they will not bow to pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to reduce imports of Russian oil and gas unless the European Union secures sufficient alternative energy supplies, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 17. kyivindependent.com/slovakia-hun...

The Trump 1 version of the revised transatlantic pact was: Europeans must spend more on defence & we Americans will sell you more US weapons. Painful for Europeans but fine for US. Under Trump 2: Europeans will pay more for defense & we won't sell you kit. How does this make any sense for the US?

Guerre d'Ukraine - Semaine 38 | 2025 Ukraine Gains (+ 4.33 km²) 🟨 Pertes (- 80.93 km²) 🟦 Russie | LPR | DPR Gains (+ 92.57 km²) 🟥 Pertes (- 1.63 km²) ⬛️ #UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine

Indeed. I noted the absence of US participation in recent NATO operations in the region (eg vs drones in 🇵🇱 🇷🇴; Eastern Sentry; vs MiG 31s in 🇪🇪). So alas unsurprising that US now announces cuts back on its assistance in the Baltic

UK fighter jets begin NATO air defence mission over Poland reut.rs/424E5xA

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1306 1. What, me worried? Trump says not yet briefed on Estonia incursion 2. On another planet: US mission to NATO expresses solidarity with Estonia 3. Bad: 21 Shahed leakers out of 54

TACO

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1305 1. After 3 🇷🇺 combat aircraft violate 🇪🇪 (ie EU and NATO ) airspace, Tallinn calls for an article 4 meeting. Note: I haven't noted the presence of US participation in Eastern flank air defence mission 2. Big drone (579)(27 leakers) & missile night 2/8 Iskander-M, 29/32 Kh-101 down

Yes, it was another era. I had met "Judge" Webster during the Reagan years, a time when evil empires were recognised for what they were and dealt with accordingly

Trajectory of Russian missiles and drones during the overnight attack. Main focus of the attack was Dnipro, Zaporizhzia, Mykolaiv, Odesa and front line positions.

Sounds like we're in for another 2 weeks of TACO

Turkey would have shot them down.

Map from a reputable Finnish news outlet (national daily Helsingin Sanomat) showing how far the Migs went

Apparently, Italian F-35s intervened. Not sure what their ROE's were

"L'incursion a eu lieu au-dessus du golfe de Finlande, où trois avions de chasse MIG-31 de la Fédération de Russie sont entrés dans l'espace aérien estonien", a indiqué le ministère des Affaires étrangères de ce pays de l'UE. ➡️ https://l.franceinfo.fr/2q5

«L’incursion a eu lieu au-dessus du golfe de Finlande, où trois avions de chasse MIG-31 de la Fédération de Russie sont entrés dans l’espace aérien estonien», a indiqué le ministère dans un communiqué. → https://l.lefigaro.fr/90f

Russia putting NATO to the test -again, and this time with actual shooters. We will now pretend to discover that NATO's air policing missions have no serious rules of engagement. Note: 12 minutes at a modest 500 knot speed represents 100 nautical miles, ie 190 kilometers.

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1304 1. 🇬🇧 & 🇨🇦 sign agreements with EU to join 150bn € SAFE arms funding mechanism 2. Kuybishev refinery suffers multiple hits from 🇺🇦 drones 3. 15 Shahed leakers out of 86

I agree. Our insufficient response may have little deterrent effect. Time to put together an integrated air defence system with the advice of our 🇺🇦 partners. 🇵🇱 mindef meeting in Kyiv appears to show this is beginning to be understood

On Sept 18, remains of a Russian “Geran”-type attack drone were found on a beach in western Latvia. A Latvian military EOD team has been dispatched to analyze the wreckage.

As Putin's curator?

I agree wirh you on point 1 (ie 'we didn't do anything'); I disagree on point 2: NATO only destroyed 4 out of 21 drones in a critical area (Rzeszów); adding a dozen hi-cost lo-gain aircraft (Eastern Sentry) is an insufficient response. 🇺🇦 has an integrated air defence system, NATO clearly doesn't.

After much delay, the negotiation mandates for talks with Canada and the UK about participation in SAFE are now adopted. The mandate themselves are non public, but should be a sign that negotiaitons can now commence swiftly with the SAFE deadline at the end of November looming.

True but I won't mind too much if the money comes from Euroclear 🇷🇺 central bank frozen assets

Trump clashes with Australian journalist over business deals in office

Special Operations Forces struck the Volgograd oil refinery last night, disrupting operations. As the largest fuel producer in Russia’s Southern Federal District, it processes 15.7M tons annually - 5.6% of Russia’s total. Preliminary reports confirm the refinery has been halted.

The collateral costs of Russia's war against Ukraine. After losing Finland and Sweden to NATO, after being kicled out of Syria, Russia gives up its primacy in Azerabaijan.

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1303 1. 🇵🇱 Mindef in Kyiv to discuss air defence 2. 27 Shahed leakers out of 75 3.EU moving towards use of Russian EUROCLEAR central bank assets

⚡️Polish military delegation to visit Ukraine to study air defense experience. Ukraine expects a delegation of Polish military officials to arrive this week to study the country’s experience in countering Russian air attacks, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said on Sept. 17.

🚂🇺🇦 Attacks on Ukrainian Railways: Purpose and Consequences ✅ Ukrzaliznytsia has anticipated this trend, organizing transfers, additional cars, and deploying at least 20 standby diesel locomotives to maintain service. Read more 👀⬇️ theukrainianreview.info/attacks-on-u...

I like that arms deliveries resume, I don’t like that Trump found a way to profit

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1302 1. After the first 3 this year, Zelensky expects 2 more large Russian offensives this year 2. Saratov refinery hit 3. Shelling near ZNPP 4. Trump arrives in UK for 2nd state visit 5. 38 Shahed leakers out of 136 drone launches

⚡️Trump administration approves first Ukraine arms aid funded by NATO allies, Reuters reports. The aid will be the first use of the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, a mechanism developed by NATO members to coordinate and fund Kyiv's most urgent battlefield needs.

Unfortunately, NATO's unconvincing performance vs Russian drones gave substance to that point

⚡️ Russia preparing 2 more 'heavy offensive campaigns,' Zelensky says. "There were already three of them, and ahead... there are two more heavy offensive campaigns," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Guerre d'Ukraine | 16/09/25 Secteurs : 🌐 Zone Sud-Ouest Koursk🔹U250916-1050 🌐 Kupiansk-Myrove🔹U250916-1100 🌐 Lyman-Siversk🔹U250916-1110 🌐 Velyka novosilka-Novoivanivka🔹U250916-1106 #UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine

Svalbard scenario?

Counterpoint maritime-executive.com/article/vide...