Hamidreza Azizi
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
đ€ 821
đ„ 128
đ 20
Ph.D. | Visiting Fellow
@swp-berlin.org
http://linkedin.com/in/hamidreza-azizi-fp
pinned post!
In my latest for
@foreignaffairs.com
, I examine why
#Iran
didnât step in to prevent Assadâs downfall, the challenges Tehran faces as
#Syria
breaks away from its orbit, and how it might adapt to a post-Assad era.
www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-ir...
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How Iran Lost Syria
A stable post-Assad future will require Tehranâs involvement.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-iran-lost-syria
9 months ago
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15
reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Oliver Meier
about 1 month ago
All concerned should use next 30 days to seek off-ramp before snapback. Alternative is outcome nobody wants, except advocates of war. Good thoughts on stepping stones to avoiding such outcome in this
@theeln.bsky.social
piece by
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
đâŒïž
europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=24532
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
The European Leadership Network (ELN)
about 1 month ago
Today, đŹđ§, đ«đ· & đ©đȘ diplomats meet Iranian counterparts in Geneva, days before an end-of-August snapback deadline that would restore pre-2015 sanctions on Iran.
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...
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A narrow path forward: Iran and the snapback deadline
By the end of August, Britain, France, and Germany have to decide whether to invoke the âsnapbackâ mechanism, which would automatically restore pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Hamidreza Azizi writes th...
https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a-narrow-path-forward-iran-and-the-snapback-deadline/
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
SWP Africa & Middle East
3 months ago
In his piece for
@amwajmedia.bsky.social
,
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
assesses Iranâs options after the war with Israel - and how Tehran could use nuclear ambiguity to buy time, preserve its leverage, and quietly recalibrate. Read the full articleđ
amwaj.media/en/article/d...
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Deep Dive: âNuclear ambiguityâ on horizon as Iran weighs options
In the early hours of June 23, the United States launched a major military operation against key Iranian nuclear facilities, striking underground uranium enrichment sites at Fordow and Natanz, and a c...
https://amwaj.media/en/article/deep-dive-nuclear-ambiguity-on-horizon-as-iran-weighs-options
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
SWP Africa & Middle East
3 months ago
Im Interview mit CNN Ă€uĂerte sich
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
zu den Implikationen des jĂŒngsten Krieges mit Israel fĂŒr die strategische Ausrichtung des Iran. Dabei analysierte er Defizite in der iranischen MilitĂ€rdoktrin und die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Anpassungen.đ
www.linkedin.com/posts/hamidr...
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Spoke with CNN on what the recent war with #Israel revealed about the shortcomings in #Iranâs military strategy and how likely the Islamic Republic will try to fix them. | Hamidreza Azizi
Spoke with CNN on what the recent war with #Israel revealed about the shortcomings in #Iranâs military strategy and how likely the Islamic Republic will try to fix them.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/hamidreza-azizi-fp_israel-iran-activity-7343548683184971776-qfzC?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAEhqD4kBT6HGTT6GFIi5JSGbml7sx4EQLlA
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My new analysis for Middle East Council Om Global Affairs on
#Iran's
strategic calculations amid the ongoing war with
#Israel
mecouncil.org/blog_posts/h...
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How Iran Is Calculating Its War with Israel
Facing a massive attack on its homeland, the Islamic Republic is in survival mode. Its war-time decision-making reflects this.
https://mecouncil.org/blog_posts/how-iran-is-calculating-its-war-with-israel/
4 months ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Rose Mason
4 months ago
Everyone, please read this excellent assessment of the Israeli strikes by Hamidreza Azizi
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
. I do wonder how the resistance in Iran would react to this, if it is indeed Israel's goal. There are few things worse than a destabilized and failed state.
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Ian Ford đȘđș đșđŠ
4 months ago
This is a very comprehensive article analysing the rationale, strategies and possible responses by both Iran and Israel. Highly recommended. đ
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Jannis J Grimm
4 months ago
This is by far the most comprehensive assessment of the Israeli strikes on Iran and their implications that I have read so far. Highly recommended!
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
ECFR MENA
5 months ago
6/
#Iran
:
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
explores how Iran is prioritising the Red Sea in its political & military agenda by increasing its naval presence in the sea, deploying naval forces to conduct operations & gather intelligence in the region.
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
SWP Africa & Middle East
5 months ago
Trumpâs return brings back âmaximum pressureâ on Iran - but this time, diplomacy is also on the table.
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
explores how sanctions and backchannel talks are reshaping US - Iran relations & why Israel might be the biggest spoiler. đ Read now:
mecouncil.org/blog_posts/t...
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Trumpâs Middle East Policy, Revisited
In this Council Views, experts from the ME Council reflect on the past 100 days of the new Trump administration's disruptive foreign policy, unpacking what recent changes mean for MENA and how states ...
https://mecouncil.org/blog_posts/trumps-middle-east-policy-revisited/
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In this piece for ELN, I explore the Iranian narratives surrounding the upcoming talks with the US in Oman, why the location and format of the negotiations matter, and what to expect from the renewed diplomacy.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...
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A fragile opening: Iran, the US, and the high-stakes return to diplomacy
Talks between Tehran and Washington are set to take place on Saturday in Oman. Hamidreza Azizi writes that much of Iranâs political spectrum is cautiously optimistic about negotiations, reflecting a r...
https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a-fragile-opening-iran-the-us-and-the-high-stakes-return-to-diplomacy/
6 months ago
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The latest blog in our Clingendael series Iran in Transition is out now. Erwin van Veen and I explore
#Iranâs
strategic predicament as it faces the threat of war, a deteriorating economy, and widening fractures within the political elite đ
www.clingendael.org/publication/...
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Running out of road: Iranâs strategic predicament
Iranâs deteriorating economy is hit by new and tighter US sanction enforcement just as the Islamic Republicâs primary mechanism of deterrence â its Axis of Resistance - is weak.
https://www.clingendael.org/publication/running-out-road-irans-strategic-predicament
6 months ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Paul T. Levin
6 months ago
In brief, Iran feels geographically cornered by Turkey & threatened by Turkeyâs growing influence in the region. Check out this interview with Iran expert
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
where he explains the context.
podcasts.apple.com/se/podcast/o...
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For some in Iran, Turkey is a bigger threat than Israel as its regional influence rises
Poddavsnitt · On the Middle East with Amberin Zaman · 2025-02-10 · 24 min
https://podcasts.apple.com/se/podcast/on-the-middle-east-with-amberin-zaman/id1511046416?i=1000690906254
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
7 months ago
Syriens Ăbergangsregierung steht vor immensen Herausforderungen. Wie die EU zur Stabilisierung des Landes beitragen kann, erklĂ€ren
@sinemadar.bsky.social
,
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
, Muriel Asseburg, Margarete Klein & Guido Steinberg in einem neuen SWP-Aktuell:
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
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Der politische Ăbergang in Syrien: Regionale und internationale Interessen
Am 8. Dezember 2024 wurde in Syrien das Assad-Regime durch eine von Hayâat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) angefĂŒhrte Rebellenallianz gestĂŒrzt. Die...
https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/der-politische-uebergang-in-syrien-regionale-und-internationale-interessen
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
7 months ago
Hello Bluesky community! Welcome to the official account of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). Follow us for updates on our latest research.
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
William Armstrong
8 months ago
Worth listening to this conversation between
@amberinzaman.bsky.social
and
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
on Iranian perceptions of this dynamic.
www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/som...
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For some in Iran, Turkey is bigger threat than Israel as its regional influence rises
The surprise fall of Iran's close regional ally Bashar al-Assad has dealt a huge blow to Tehran's so called axis of resistance running through Iraq onto Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's loss is ...
https://www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/some-iran-turkey-bigger-threat-israel-its-regional-influence-rises
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It was a pleasure to once again join
@amberinzaman.bsky.social
on her Al-Monitor podcast to discuss how
#Iranâs
threat perception of
#Turkey
has been on the rise since the fall of
#Assad
, as well as the prospects for long-term relations đ
www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/som...
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For some in Iran, Turkey is bigger threat than Israel as its regional influence rises
The surprise fall of Iran's close regional ally Bashar al-Assad has dealt a huge blow to Tehran's so called axis of resistance running through Iraq onto Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's loss is ...
https://www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/some-iran-turkey-bigger-threat-israel-its-regional-influence-rises
8 months ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Marc Owen Jones
9 months ago
Was fascinating interviewing Hamidreza Azizi on the current and future course of Iran's Nuclear program. Especially relevant given the current state of regional politics in the Middle East.
add a skeleton here at some point
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On the sidelines of the Doha Forum last month, I joined
@marcowenjones.bsky.social
on his ME Council podcast to discuss the current state and future prospects of
#Iranâs
nuclear program - including what to expect from Trumpâs second term
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpGB...
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The Future of Iran's Nuclear Program
YouTube video by ME Council
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpGBhJpPhco&list=PLihD9YLEIdM-IsEmVTaV6wxHZxrsBbBUN
9 months ago
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#Iran
and
#Russia
are set to sign a strategic partnership agreement tomorrow. For a detailed background on Iran-Russia relations and their growing partnership in recent years, read this edited volume by Abdolrasool Divsallar, in which I also have a chapter on IR-RU in
#Syria
đ
9 months ago
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I was quoted in this RFE-RL piece by
@kiansharifi.bsky.social
on the election of
#Lebanonâs
president and its implications for
#Iran
&
#Hezbollah
đ
www.rferl.org/a/joseph-aou...
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Election Of New Lebanese President Signals Iran's Waning Influence
Lebanese lawmakers have elected army chief Joseph Aoun as the countryâs new president, ending a two-year gridlock in a clear sign of the weakening of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed political party and ...
https://www.rferl.org/a/joseph-aoun-elected-lebanon-president-hezbollah-weakened/33271078.html
9 months ago
0
0
1
reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
In my latest for
@foreignaffairs.com
, I examine why
#Iran
didnât step in to prevent Assadâs downfall, the challenges Tehran faces as
#Syria
breaks away from its orbit, and how it might adapt to a post-Assad era.
www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-ir...
loading . . .
How Iran Lost Syria
A stable post-Assad future will require Tehranâs involvement.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-iran-lost-syria
9 months ago
1
22
15
reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Foreign Affairs
9 months ago
âThe United States should offer Iran a seat at the table during regional talks over Syriaâs future,â writes
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
. âThis strategy could curtail Iranâs disruptive influence in Syria and the greater Middle East.â
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How Iran Lost Syria
A stable post-Assad future will require Tehranâs involvement.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-iran-lost-syria?utm_medium=socal&utm_source=bluesky_posts&utm_campaign=blue_soc
1
13
4
In my latest for
@foreignaffairs.com
, I examine why
#Iran
didnât step in to prevent Assadâs downfall, the challenges Tehran faces as
#Syria
breaks away from its orbit, and how it might adapt to a post-Assad era.
www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-ir...
loading . . .
How Iran Lost Syria
A stable post-Assad future will require Tehranâs involvement.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-iran-lost-syria
9 months ago
1
22
15
reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
ECFR MENA
10 months ago
For more background information on the Syrian & wider regional context, re-read
@jbdacey.bsky.social
&
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
's policy brief
ecfr.eu/publication/...
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Beyond proxies: Iranâs deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflictâŠ
https://ecfr.eu/publication/beyond-proxies-irans-deeper-strategy-in-syria-and-lebanon/
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Aron Lund
10 months ago
Things being completely bonkers âmay require Russia to reconcile with the reality that its reduced military influence demands greater flexibility with regional powers,â argue Hamidreza Azizi & Nicole Grajewski.
foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/02/s...
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
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What the Fall of Aleppo Means for Russia
A lightning advance by rebels will force Moscow to recalibrate its Syria strategy.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/02/syria-aleppo-russia-hts-hezbollah-iran/
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In this piece for
@foreignpolicy.com
,
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
and I discuss what the recent rebel offensive in
#Syria
means for
#Russiaâs
policy in Syria and the broader Middle East
foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/02/s...
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What the Fall of Aleppo Means for Russia
A lightning advance by rebels will force Moscow to recalibrate its Syria strategy.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/02/syria-aleppo-russia-hts-hezbollah-iran/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=c3lyaWEtYWxlcHBvLXJ1c3NpYS1odHMtaGV6Ym9sbGFoLWlyYW4=&pid=OC20506955
10 months ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Nicole Grajewski
10 months ago
In
@foreignpolicy.com
,
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
and I examine what the fall of Aleppo means for Russia's role in Syria and the future of its ties to Iran, Turkey, Israel, and the GCC.
foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/02/s...
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What the Fall of Aleppo Means for Russia
A lightning advance by rebels will force Moscow to recalibrate its Syria strategy.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/02/syria-aleppo-russia-hts-hezbollah-iran/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=c3lyaWEtYWxlcHBvLXJ1c3NpYS1odHMtaGV6Ym9sbGFoLWlyYW4=&pid=OC20506955
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The latest in our Clingendael blog series âIran in Transition.â Erwin van Veen & I look at the current state & future prospects of
#Iran-EU
relations đ
www.clingendael.org/publication/...
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Hurtling towards irrelevance: Iran-EU relations in 2024
In relational terms, the EU has become nearly irrelevant to Iran due to its (perceived) unwillingness to chart a foreign policy towards Tehran that is independent from the US.
https://www.clingendael.org/publication/hurtling-towards-irrelevance-iran-eu-relations-2024
10 months ago
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This year, I had the pleasure of attending and speaking at the Rome MED Dialogues, alongside leading experts on the MENA region. My talk focused on BRICSâ expansion into MENA and its various implications.
10 months ago
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In this article for Al Majalla, I outline
#Iranâs
vision for regional order, how its ideological and strategic priorities shape this vision, and the implications of the
#Gaza
war
en.majalla.com/node/322993/...
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How Iran sees the 'New Middle East'
Iran's vision entails a region where US influence is minimised and Israel is isolated
https://en.majalla.com/node/322993/politics/how-iran-sees-new-middle-east
11 months ago
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Latest with Erwin van Veen for Clingendael Institute blog series âIran in Transition.â We analyze what the respective reactions of
#Iranâs
political elites & its population to
#Gaza
war tell us about intra-elite dynamics & state-society relations in the country
www.clingendael.org/publication/...
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Iranian reactions to 7/10 and the invasion of Gaza | Clingendael
By Hamidreza Azizi and Erwin van Veen
https://www.clingendael.org/publication/iranian-reactions-710-and-invasion-gaza
almost 2 years ago
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My latest for War on the Rocks: How Iran and Its Allies Hope to Save #Hamas  I explore the responses by #Iran and its allies in the âaxis of resistanceâ to the war in #Gaza & explain the division of labor within the axis.
warontherocks.com/2023/11/how-...
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How Iran and Its Allies Hope to Save Hamas - War on the Rocks
âWe kiss the foreheads and the arms of the shrewd and astute planners and the courageous Palestinian youth.â On Oct. 10, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah
https://warontherocks.com/2023/11/how-iran-and-its-allies-hope-to-save-hamas/
almost 2 years ago
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It was a pleasure to speak to Amberin Zaman on the Al-Monitor podcast âOn the Middle Eastâ about #Iranâs calculations vis-a-vis the war in #Gaza.
www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/ira...
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Iran continues strategic miscalculations even after Hamas' attack on Israel, says analyst Hamidreza ...
Iran is doing its best to avoid getting dragged into the conflict in Gaza. Its strategy of deterrence through its proxies appears to have backfired and the United States is more present than ever in t...
https://www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/iran-continues-strategic-miscalculations-even-after-hamas-attack-israel-says-analyst#ixzz8IPwTGFwn
almost 2 years ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Sinem Adar
almost 2 years ago
Here are some reflections from
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
and me concerning Iran-Turkey relations in light of the war in Gaza đ
www.mei.edu/publications...
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Turkey and Iran: Toward an âAxis of Revisionismâ amid the war in Gaza?
Hamasâ violent and unexpected Oct. 7 attack on Israel has shaken a fragile regional order in the Middle East. Ankara and Tehran are worried that a stronger U.S. presence in the Middle East is detrim...
https://www.mei.edu/publications/turkey-and-iran-toward-axis-revisionism-amid-war-gaza
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Sinem Adar
almost 2 years ago
further thoughts (with
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
) on Turkey, Iran, and the war in Gaza đ
www.mei.edu/publications...
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Turkey and Iran: Toward an âAxis of Revisionismâ amid the war in Gaza?
Hamasâ violent and unexpected Oct. 7 attack on Israel has shaken a fragile regional order in the Middle East. Ankara and Tehran are worried that a stronger U.S. presence in the Middle East is detrim...
https://www.mei.edu/publications/turkey-and-iran-toward-axis-revisionism-amid-war-gaza
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