"The system has effectively assembled a wartime coalition of military, security, and political leaders around Mojtaba." @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social @swp-mea.bsky.social examines the transition of power in Iran and explores how the new leadership is beginning to take shape. time.com/article/2026...

How could the war in Iran end? @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social discusses the conflict’s origins, possible scenarios & Iran’s Axis of Resistance in the Sky News Podcast. Listen to the full podcast now 👇 news.sky.com/story/how-do...

The Iranian state is not divided between civilian and military camps. It is a system in transition that is trying to manage war, diplomacy, and internal competition simultaneously, writes @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social @swp-mea.bsky.social in an article for Time Magazine: time.com/article/2026...

essential update from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on the progress of talks between the US and Iran probably worth breaking down in some detail 1) regime sources in Iran are claiming the Lebanon ceasefire was a success of high-risk Iranian diplomacy and military threats x.com/HamidRezaAz/...

as usual the @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social update on the war from Iranian sources is a must-read there are real hopeful signs here -- substantive talks and a plausible way through to a nuclear deal, but Hormuz, Lebanon and the positivity of future US/Israeli attacks still at issue x.com/i/status/204...

If @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social is right and Hormuz has evolved into a more important source of leverage for Iran than the nuclear program, does that open up possibilities for negotiating a resolution on the nuclear front that were not apparent before the war?

Very good on Iran’s evolving view of the Hormuz Strait, by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social. www.irananalytica.org/p/why-iran-w...

from the @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social daily update on the war based on Iranian sources Iranian regime and state media continues to insist upon extremely harsh terms for ending the war and these terms continue to include the formalization of Iranian control over Hormuz x.com/i/status/203...

really useful nuance in the latest @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social update on the war from Iranian sources -public statements by Iranian leaders refuse to credit the new American messaging on negotiations -but Iran's deterrence messaging toward the Gulf has become more restrained x.com/HamidRezaAz/...

@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social spricht im Podcast Hidden Forces über die militärischen, politischen und gesellschaftlichen Dimensionen des Iran-Krieges – von strategischen Zielkonflikten bis zu möglichen Eskalationspfaden. 🎧Jetzt anhören: hiddenforces.io/podcasts/ira...

this from the @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social daily update remains the thing I think that particularly markets discourse on the war hasn't accounted for yet Iran consistently says their core war aim is a new security arrangement, with control over Hormuz as a means to achieve it x.com/i/status/203...

These daily updates from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on how Iranian regimes sees things have been very on point

from the @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social daily update on the other site -- Iranian messaging on war aims increasingly looks to reshaping of the security situation in the Middle East these are demands much wider than simply an end to American and Israeli bombardment x.com/i/status/203...

really good piece by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on how the war enabled the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei and foreclosed opportunities for reform that the transition to a new supreme leader might otherwise have offered www.irananalytica.org/p/how-mojtab...

A Day FIVE recap of the war (with focus on Iranian strategic narrative) -- @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social "sustained Israeli air operations inside Iran, Iranian efforts to impose costs on U.S. interests and regional energy markets, and a widening regional and proxy dimension to the conflict."

Reposted from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on X because it's the only analysis of Iranian strategy I've seen that seems to think they may actually have a plan.

(2/8) @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social: Entscheidend ist, ob die Islamische Republik den Schock nach Khameneis Tod absorbieren & regierungsfähig bleiben kann. Gelingt das, dürfte sich der Konfilkt ausweiten. 👇 www.irananalytica.org/p/the-war-of...

»Iranian missiles have continued to fly, senior officials have struck defiant postures, and security forces have moved swiftly to shape the streets...« Tehran shows continuity in its military response, not collapse, writes @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social time.com/7381954/iran...

by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social (c&p from twitter into thread here): 🔹 CENTCOM confirms that U.S. strikes on Iranian missile bases used B-1 bombers. The U.S. is trying to dismantle Iran’s fortified underground missile facilities. (1/24)

Fascinating insight from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social, crucial relevance for what comes next in Iran: The Man Who Would Be King open.substack.com/pub/irananal...

For a recap and a primer, from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social www.irananalytica.org/p/the-war-of...

Insightful piece from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on how and why venue matters for Iran talks. In this case, Turkey's bigger ambitions of gaining leverage and positioning itself as a rising regional power reduce its suitability for Iran. www.irananalytica.org/p/all-roads-...

Thanks! The following piece builds on that research to explain the change of venue from Turkey to Oman: www.irananalytica.org/p/all-roads-...

Higher turnout in Iraq’s elections signals progress, but major challenges lie ahead. @iswerenfelsi.bsky.social & @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social examine how the next government must balance between the US & Iran while tackling domestic strains, militias, climate change & financial fragility. Read it now👇

The higher turnout in Iraq’s elections signals progress in security, infrastructure, and political stability. But the next government faces tough domestic challenges and a balancing act between the US and Iran, say @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social and Isabelle Werenfels. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Excellent analysis on the IRGC, myths of a coup, post-Khamenei order and what could happen to the Islamic Republic following these latest fissures by Berlin-based Iran scholar @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social www.irananalytica.org/p/the-myth-o...

Really good read by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social www.irananalytica.org/p/the-myth-o...

(6/8) @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social: Die Proteste sind Folge von wirtschaftlichem Kollaps, urbaner Mobilisierung & außenpolitischer Bedrohungslage. Das Regime bleibt repressiv, doch seine Handlungsspielräume schrumpfen. irananalytica.substack.com/p/why-this-r...

Really good analysis by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social of current situation in Iran protests and why this round of protests matters: is.gd/qiZRxT

Interesting analysis from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on why the ongoing Iran protests are different than previous rounds. What's still unclear is whether they will end differently. irananalytica.substack.com/p/why-this-r...

There's reasons for Russia to worry: I'm not going to speculate as to whether #Iran's regime will collapse - follow @alivaez.bsky.social @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social @hdagres.bsky.social @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social But were it to happen, it could be difficult for Russia to retain influence /3

#OpenAccess from @nationalitiesp.bsky.social - A Status Quo Power in a Changing Region: Iran’s Regionalism in the South Caucasus - https://cup.org/4pbZRcn - VGolmohammadi & @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social#OpenAccess #FirstView

In Syrien findet am Sonntag die erste Parlamentswahl nach dem Sturz Assads statt. In einem SWP-Aktuell erklären @sinemadar.bsky.social, @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social, Muriel Asseburg, Margarete Klein & Guido Steinberg, wie die EU beim Wiederaufbau unterstützen kann. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

All concerned should use next 30 days to seek off-ramp before snapback. Alternative is outcome nobody wants, except advocates of war. Good thoughts on stepping stones to avoiding such outcome in this @theeln.bsky.social piece by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social 👇‼️ europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=24532

Today, 🇬🇧, 🇫🇷 & 🇩🇪 diplomats meet Iranian counterparts in Geneva, days before an end-of-August snapback deadline that would restore pre-2015 sanctions on Iran. @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...

In his piece for @amwajmedia.bsky.social, @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social assesses Iran’s options after the war with Israel - and how Tehran could use nuclear ambiguity to buy time, preserve its leverage, and quietly recalibrate. Read the full article👇 amwaj.media/en/article/d...

Im Interview mit CNN äußerte sich @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social zu den Implikationen des jüngsten Krieges mit Israel für die strategische Ausrichtung des Iran. Dabei analysierte er Defizite in der iranischen Militärdoktrin und die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Anpassungen.👇 www.linkedin.com/posts/hamidr...

My new analysis for Middle East Council Om Global Affairs on #Iran's strategic calculations amid the ongoing war with #Israel mecouncil.org/blog_posts/h...

Everyone, please read this excellent assessment of the Israeli strikes by Hamidreza Azizi @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social. I do wonder how the resistance in Iran would react to this, if it is indeed Israel's goal. There are few things worse than a destabilized and failed state.

This is a very comprehensive article analysing the rationale, strategies and possible responses by both Iran and Israel. Highly recommended. 👇

6/ #Iran: @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social explores how Iran is prioritising the Red Sea in its political & military agenda by increasing its naval presence in the sea, deploying naval forces to conduct operations & gather intelligence in the region.

Trump’s return brings back “maximum pressure” on Iran - but this time, diplomacy is also on the table. @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social explores how sanctions and backchannel talks are reshaping US - Iran relations & why Israel might be the biggest spoiler. 📖 Read now: mecouncil.org/blog_posts/t...

In this piece for ELN, I explore the Iranian narratives surrounding the upcoming talks with the US in Oman, why the location and format of the negotiations matter, and what to expect from the renewed diplomacy. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...

The latest blog in our Clingendael series Iran in Transition is out now. Erwin van Veen and I explore #Iran’s strategic predicament as it faces the threat of war, a deteriorating economy, and widening fractures within the political elite 👇 www.clingendael.org/publication/...

In brief, Iran feels geographically cornered by Turkey & threatened by Turkey’s growing influence in the region. Check out this interview with Iran expert @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social where he explains the context. podcasts.apple.com/se/podcast/o...

Syriens Übergangsregierung steht vor immensen Herausforderungen. Wie die EU zur Stabilisierung des Landes beitragen kann, erklären @sinemadar.bsky.social, @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social, Muriel Asseburg, Margarete Klein & Guido Steinberg in einem neuen SWP-Aktuell: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Hello Bluesky community! Welcome to the official account of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). Follow us for updates on our latest research.

Worth listening to this conversation between @amberinzaman.bsky.social and @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on Iranian perceptions of this dynamic. www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/som...

It was a pleasure to once again join @amberinzaman.bsky.social on her Al-Monitor podcast to discuss how #Iran’s threat perception of #Turkey has been on the rise since the fall of #Assad, as well as the prospects for long-term relations 👇 www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/som...