Hamidreza Azizi
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
đ€ 1191
đ„ 137
đ 23
Ph.D. | Visiting Fellow
@swp-berlin.org
http://linkedin.com/in/hamidreza-azizi-fp
reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Michael Caley
2 days ago
really useful nuance in the latest
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
update on the war from Iranian sources -public statements by Iranian leaders refuse to credit the new American messaging on negotiations -but Iran's deterrence messaging toward the Gulf has become more restrained
x.com/HamidRezaAz/...
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
SWP Africa & Middle East
8 days ago
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
spricht im Podcast Hidden Forces ĂŒber die militĂ€rischen, politischen und gesellschaftlichen Dimensionen des Iran-Krieges â von strategischen Zielkonflikten bis zu möglichen Eskalationspfaden. đ§Jetzt anhören:
hiddenforces.io/podcasts/ira...
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Americaâs Gamble: Regime Change, Retreat, or State Collapse
Hamidreza Azizi describes how the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran has evolved and what the conflict's trajectory reveals about the competing strategic objectives driving it.
https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/iran-war-regime-change-retreat-or-state-collapse-in-iran-hamidreza-azizi/
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Michael Caley
9 days ago
this from the
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
daily update remains the thing I think that particularly markets discourse on the war hasn't accounted for yet Iran consistently says their core war aim is a new security arrangement, with control over Hormuz as a means to achieve it
x.com/i/status/203...
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
alina
10 days ago
These daily updates from
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
on how Iranian regimes sees things have been very on point
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Michael Caley
11 days ago
from the
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
daily update on the other site -- Iranian messaging on war aims increasingly looks to reshaping of the security situation in the Middle East these are demands much wider than simply an end to American and Israeli bombardment
x.com/i/status/203...
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Michael Caley
15 days ago
really good piece by
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
on how the war enabled the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei and foreclosed opportunities for reform that the transition to a new supreme leader might otherwise have offered
www.irananalytica.org/p/how-mojtab...
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How Mojtaba Khamenei Became the Supreme Leader
And What It Means for Iranâs Domestic and Foreign Policy
https://www.irananalytica.org/p/how-mojtaba-khamenei-became-the-supreme
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Albert Pinto
21 days ago
A Day FIVE recap of the war (with focus on Iranian strategic narrative) --
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
"sustained Israeli air operations inside Iran, Iranian efforts to impose costs on U.S. interests and regional energy markets, and a widening regional and proxy dimension to the conflict."
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Nathan Goldwag
22 days ago
Reposted from
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
on X because it's the only analysis of Iranian strategy I've seen that seems to think they may actually have a plan.
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
SWP Africa & Middle East
23 days ago
(2/8)
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
: Entscheidend ist, ob die Islamische Republik den Schock nach Khameneis Tod absorbieren & regierungsfĂ€hig bleiben kann. Gelingt das, dĂŒrfte sich der Konfilkt ausweiten. đ
www.irananalytica.org/p/the-war-of...
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The War of Regime Change Has Begun
An Early Assessment of the U.S.-Israeli War Against Iran
https://www.irananalytica.org/p/the-war-of-regime-change-has-begun
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
23 days ago
»Iranian missiles have continued to fly, senior officials have struck defiant postures, and security forces have moved swiftly to shape the streets...« Tehran shows continuity in its military response, not collapse, writes
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
@swp-europe.bsky.social
time.com/7381954/iran...
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After Khamenei: What Iran, and the World, Face Next
"Long ago, the Islamic Republic learned to distribute coercive power across institutions to enable the state to survive crises," writes Hamidreza Azizi
https://time.com/7381954/iran-ayatollah-khamenei-trump-israel/
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
hcv \ÊâąââąÊ/
23 days ago
by
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
(c&p from twitter into thread here): đč CENTCOM confirms that U.S. strikes on Iranian missile bases used B-1 bombers. The U.S. is trying to dismantle Iranâs fortified underground missile facilities. (1/24)
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Yezid Sayigh
25 days ago
Fascinating insight from
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
, crucial relevance for what comes next in Iran: The Man Who Would Be King
open.substack.com/pub/irananal...
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The Man Who Would Be King
Ali Shamkhani and Iranâs Security-Managed Transition
https://open.substack.com/pub/irananalytica/p/the-man-who-would-be-king?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
alina
26 days ago
For a recap and a primer, from
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
www.irananalytica.org/p/the-war-of...
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The War of Regime Change Has Begun
An Early Assessment of the U.S.-Israeli War Against Iran
https://www.irananalytica.org/p/the-war-of-regime-change-has-begun
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Lisel Hintz
about 2 months ago
Insightful piece from
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
on how and why venue matters for Iran talks. In this case, Turkey's bigger ambitions of gaining leverage and positioning itself as a rising regional power reduce its suitability for Iran.
www.irananalytica.org/p/all-roads-...
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Thanks! The following piece builds on that research to explain the change of venue from Turkey to Oman:
www.irananalytica.org/p/all-roads-...
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All Roads Lead to Muscat
What Iranâs Preference for Oman Reveals About Its Mediation Playbook
https://www.irananalytica.org/p/all-roads-lead-to-muscat
about 2 months ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
SWP Africa & Middle East
2 months ago
Higher turnout in Iraqâs elections signals progress, but major challenges lie ahead.
@iswerenfelsi.bsky.social
&
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
examine how the next government must balance between the US & Iran while tackling domestic strains, militias, climate change & financial fragility. Read it nowđ
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
2 months ago
The higher turnout in Iraqâs elections signals progress in security, infrastructure, and political stability. But the next government faces tough domestic challenges and a balancing act between the US and Iran, say
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
and Isabelle Werenfels.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
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Reclaiming Iraqi Agency
Post-election Dynamics and Challenges
https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/reclaiming-iraqi-agency
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Nassim Assefi
2 months ago
Excellent analysis on the IRGC, myths of a coup, post-Khamenei order and what could happen to the Islamic Republic following these latest fissures by Berlin-based Iran scholar
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
www.irananalytica.org/p/the-myth-o...
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Hamidreza Azizi on X: "The Myth of an IRGC Coup In my latest analysis on Iran Analytica, I examine why speculation about an IRGC coup misreads how power actually works in #Iran and why succession, not seizure, is the real fault line đ https://t.co/hrkSepeDlt" / X
The Myth of an IRGC Coup In my latest analysis on Iran Analytica, I examine why speculation about an IRGC coup misreads how power actually works in #Iran and why succession, not seizure, is the real fault line đ https://t.co/hrkSepeDlt
https://x.com/HamidRezaAz/status/2013182827509027099?s=20
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Tareq
2 months ago
Really good read by
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
www.irananalytica.org/p/the-myth-o...
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The Myth of an IRGC Coup
Succession, Militarization, and the Constraints on Power in Iran
https://www.irananalytica.org/p/the-myth-of-an-irgc-coup?trk=feed_main-feed-card_feed-article-content
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
SWP Africa & Middle East
2 months ago
(6/8)
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
: Die Proteste sind Folge von wirtschaftlichem Kollaps, urbaner Mobilisierung & auĂenpolitischer Bedrohungslage. Das Regime bleibt repressiv, doch seine HandlungsspielrĂ€ume schrumpfen.
irananalytica.substack.com/p/why-this-r...
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Why This Round of Protests in Iran Matters
Economic Breakdown, Political Fragmentation, and the Islamic Republic's Narrowing Options
https://irananalytica.substack.com/p/why-this-round-of-protests-in-iran
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Oliver Meier
2 months ago
Really good analysis by
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
of current situation in Iran protests and why this round of protests matters:
is.gd/qiZRxT
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Why This Round of Protests in Iran Matters
Economic Breakdown, Political Fragmentation, and the Islamic Republic's Narrowing Options
https://is.gd/qiZRxT
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Dalia Dassa Kaye
3 months ago
Interesting analysis from
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
on why the ongoing Iran protests are different than previous rounds. What's still unclear is whether they will end differently.
irananalytica.substack.com/p/why-this-r...
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Why This Round of Protests in Iran Matters
Economic Breakdown, Political Fragmentation, and the Islamic Republic's Narrowing Options
https://irananalytica.substack.com/p/why-this-round-of-protests-in-iran
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Hanna Notte
3 months ago
There's reasons for Russia to worry: I'm not going to speculate as to whether
#Iran's
regime will collapse - follow
@alivaez.bsky.social
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
@hdagres.bsky.social
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
But were it to happen, it could be difficult for Russia to retain influence /3
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR
4 months ago
#OpenAccess from
@nationalitiesp.bsky.social
- A Status Quo Power in a Changing Region: Iranâs Regionalism in the South Caucasus - https://cup.org/4pbZRcn - VGolmohammadi &
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
#FirstView
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
6 months ago
In Syrien findet am Sonntag die erste Parlamentswahl nach dem Sturz Assads statt. In einem SWP-Aktuell erklÀren
@sinemadar.bsky.social
,
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
, Muriel Asseburg, Margarete Klein & Guido Steinberg, wie die EU beim Wiederaufbau unterstĂŒtzen kann.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
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Der politische Ăbergang in Syrien: Regionale und internationale Interessen
Am 8. Dezember 2024 wurde in Syrien das Assad-Regime durch eine von Hayâat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) angefĂŒhrte Rebellenallianz gestĂŒrzt. Die...
https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/der-politische-uebergang-in-syrien-regionale-und-internationale-interessen
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Oliver Meier
7 months ago
All concerned should use next 30 days to seek off-ramp before snapback. Alternative is outcome nobody wants, except advocates of war. Good thoughts on stepping stones to avoiding such outcome in this
@theeln.bsky.social
piece by
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
đâŒïž
europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=24532
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
The European Leadership Network (ELN)
7 months ago
Today, đŹđ§, đ«đ· & đ©đȘ diplomats meet Iranian counterparts in Geneva, days before an end-of-August snapback deadline that would restore pre-2015 sanctions on Iran.
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...
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A narrow path forward: Iran and the snapback deadline
By the end of August, Britain, France, and Germany have to decide whether to invoke the âsnapbackâ mechanism, which would automatically restore pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Hamidreza Azizi writes th...
https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a-narrow-path-forward-iran-and-the-snapback-deadline/
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
SWP Africa & Middle East
9 months ago
In his piece for
@amwajmedia.bsky.social
,
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
assesses Iranâs options after the war with Israel - and how Tehran could use nuclear ambiguity to buy time, preserve its leverage, and quietly recalibrate. Read the full articleđ
amwaj.media/en/article/d...
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Deep Dive: âNuclear ambiguityâ on horizon as Iran weighs options
In the early hours of June 23, the United States launched a major military operation against key Iranian nuclear facilities, striking underground uranium enrichment sites at Fordow and Natanz, and a c...
https://amwaj.media/en/article/deep-dive-nuclear-ambiguity-on-horizon-as-iran-weighs-options
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
SWP Africa & Middle East
9 months ago
Im Interview mit CNN Ă€uĂerte sich
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
zu den Implikationen des jĂŒngsten Krieges mit Israel fĂŒr die strategische Ausrichtung des Iran. Dabei analysierte er Defizite in der iranischen MilitĂ€rdoktrin und die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Anpassungen.đ
www.linkedin.com/posts/hamidr...
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Spoke with CNN on what the recent war with #Israel revealed about the shortcomings in #Iranâs military strategy and how likely the Islamic Republic will try to fix them. | Hamidreza Azizi
Spoke with CNN on what the recent war with #Israel revealed about the shortcomings in #Iranâs military strategy and how likely the Islamic Republic will try to fix them.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/hamidreza-azizi-fp_israel-iran-activity-7343548683184971776-qfzC?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAEhqD4kBT6HGTT6GFIi5JSGbml7sx4EQLlA
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My new analysis for Middle East Council Om Global Affairs on
#Iran's
strategic calculations amid the ongoing war with
#Israel
mecouncil.org/blog_posts/h...
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How Iran Is Calculating Its War with Israel
Facing a massive attack on its homeland, the Islamic Republic is in survival mode. Its war-time decision-making reflects this.
https://mecouncil.org/blog_posts/how-iran-is-calculating-its-war-with-israel/
9 months ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Rose Mason
10 months ago
Everyone, please read this excellent assessment of the Israeli strikes by Hamidreza Azizi
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
. I do wonder how the resistance in Iran would react to this, if it is indeed Israel's goal. There are few things worse than a destabilized and failed state.
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Ian Ford đȘđș đșđŠ
10 months ago
This is a very comprehensive article analysing the rationale, strategies and possible responses by both Iran and Israel. Highly recommended. đ
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
ECFR MENA
11 months ago
6/
#Iran
:
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
explores how Iran is prioritising the Red Sea in its political & military agenda by increasing its naval presence in the sea, deploying naval forces to conduct operations & gather intelligence in the region.
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
SWP Africa & Middle East
11 months ago
Trumpâs return brings back âmaximum pressureâ on Iran - but this time, diplomacy is also on the table.
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
explores how sanctions and backchannel talks are reshaping US - Iran relations & why Israel might be the biggest spoiler. đ Read now:
mecouncil.org/blog_posts/t...
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Trumpâs Middle East Policy, Revisited
In this Council Views, experts from the ME Council reflect on the past 100 days of the new Trump administration's disruptive foreign policy, unpacking what recent changes mean for MENA and how states ...
https://mecouncil.org/blog_posts/trumps-middle-east-policy-revisited/
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In this piece for ELN, I explore the Iranian narratives surrounding the upcoming talks with the US in Oman, why the location and format of the negotiations matter, and what to expect from the renewed diplomacy.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...
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A fragile opening: Iran, the US, and the high-stakes return to diplomacy
Talks between Tehran and Washington are set to take place on Saturday in Oman. Hamidreza Azizi writes that much of Iranâs political spectrum is cautiously optimistic about negotiations, reflecting a r...
https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a-fragile-opening-iran-the-us-and-the-high-stakes-return-to-diplomacy/
12 months ago
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The latest blog in our Clingendael series Iran in Transition is out now. Erwin van Veen and I explore
#Iranâs
strategic predicament as it faces the threat of war, a deteriorating economy, and widening fractures within the political elite đ
www.clingendael.org/publication/...
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Running out of road: Iranâs strategic predicament
Iranâs deteriorating economy is hit by new and tighter US sanction enforcement just as the Islamic Republicâs primary mechanism of deterrence â its Axis of Resistance - is weak.
https://www.clingendael.org/publication/running-out-road-irans-strategic-predicament
12 months ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Paul T. Levin
about 1 year ago
In brief, Iran feels geographically cornered by Turkey & threatened by Turkeyâs growing influence in the region. Check out this interview with Iran expert
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
where he explains the context.
podcasts.apple.com/se/podcast/o...
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For some in Iran, Turkey is a bigger threat than Israel as its regional influence rises
Poddavsnitt · On the Middle East with Amberin Zaman · 2025-02-10 · 24 min
https://podcasts.apple.com/se/podcast/on-the-middle-east-with-amberin-zaman/id1511046416?i=1000690906254
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
about 1 year ago
Syriens Ăbergangsregierung steht vor immensen Herausforderungen. Wie die EU zur Stabilisierung des Landes beitragen kann, erklĂ€ren
@sinemadar.bsky.social
,
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
, Muriel Asseburg, Margarete Klein & Guido Steinberg in einem neuen SWP-Aktuell:
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
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Der politische Ăbergang in Syrien: Regionale und internationale Interessen
Am 8. Dezember 2024 wurde in Syrien das Assad-Regime durch eine von Hayâat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) angefĂŒhrte Rebellenallianz gestĂŒrzt. Die...
https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/der-politische-uebergang-in-syrien-regionale-und-internationale-interessen
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
about 1 year ago
Hello Bluesky community! Welcome to the official account of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). Follow us for updates on our latest research.
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
William Armstrong
about 1 year ago
Worth listening to this conversation between
@amberinzaman.bsky.social
and
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
on Iranian perceptions of this dynamic.
www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/som...
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For some in Iran, Turkey is bigger threat than Israel as its regional influence rises
The surprise fall of Iran's close regional ally Bashar al-Assad has dealt a huge blow to Tehran's so called axis of resistance running through Iraq onto Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's loss is ...
https://www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/some-iran-turkey-bigger-threat-israel-its-regional-influence-rises
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It was a pleasure to once again join
@amberinzaman.bsky.social
on her Al-Monitor podcast to discuss how
#Iranâs
threat perception of
#Turkey
has been on the rise since the fall of
#Assad
, as well as the prospects for long-term relations đ
www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/som...
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For some in Iran, Turkey is bigger threat than Israel as its regional influence rises
The surprise fall of Iran's close regional ally Bashar al-Assad has dealt a huge blow to Tehran's so called axis of resistance running through Iraq onto Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's loss is ...
https://www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/some-iran-turkey-bigger-threat-israel-its-regional-influence-rises
about 1 year ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Marc Owen Jones
about 1 year ago
Was fascinating interviewing Hamidreza Azizi on the current and future course of Iran's Nuclear program. Especially relevant given the current state of regional politics in the Middle East.
add a skeleton here at some point
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On the sidelines of the Doha Forum last month, I joined
@marcowenjones.bsky.social
on his ME Council podcast to discuss the current state and future prospects of
#Iranâs
nuclear program - including what to expect from Trumpâs second term
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpGB...
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The Future of Iran's Nuclear Program
YouTube video by ME Council
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpGBhJpPhco&list=PLihD9YLEIdM-IsEmVTaV6wxHZxrsBbBUN
about 1 year ago
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#Iran
and
#Russia
are set to sign a strategic partnership agreement tomorrow. For a detailed background on Iran-Russia relations and their growing partnership in recent years, read this edited volume by Abdolrasool Divsallar, in which I also have a chapter on IR-RU in
#Syria
đ
about 1 year ago
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I was quoted in this RFE-RL piece by
@kiansharifi.bsky.social
on the election of
#Lebanonâs
president and its implications for
#Iran
&
#Hezbollah
đ
www.rferl.org/a/joseph-aou...
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Election Of New Lebanese President Signals Iran's Waning Influence
Lebanese lawmakers have elected army chief Joseph Aoun as the countryâs new president, ending a two-year gridlock in a clear sign of the weakening of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed political party and ...
https://www.rferl.org/a/joseph-aoun-elected-lebanon-president-hezbollah-weakened/33271078.html
about 1 year ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
In my latest for
@foreignaffairs.com
, I examine why
#Iran
didnât step in to prevent Assadâs downfall, the challenges Tehran faces as
#Syria
breaks away from its orbit, and how it might adapt to a post-Assad era.
www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-ir...
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How Iran Lost Syria
A stable post-Assad future will require Tehranâs involvement.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-iran-lost-syria
over 1 year ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
Foreign Affairs
over 1 year ago
âThe United States should offer Iran a seat at the table during regional talks over Syriaâs future,â writes
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
. âThis strategy could curtail Iranâs disruptive influence in Syria and the greater Middle East.â
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How Iran Lost Syria
A stable post-Assad future will require Tehranâs involvement.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-iran-lost-syria?utm_medium=socal&utm_source=bluesky_posts&utm_campaign=blue_soc
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In my latest for
@foreignaffairs.com
, I examine why
#Iran
didnât step in to prevent Assadâs downfall, the challenges Tehran faces as
#Syria
breaks away from its orbit, and how it might adapt to a post-Assad era.
www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-ir...
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How Iran Lost Syria
A stable post-Assad future will require Tehranâs involvement.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-iran-lost-syria
over 1 year ago
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reposted by
Hamidreza Azizi
ECFR MENA
over 1 year ago
For more background information on the Syrian & wider regional context, re-read
@jbdacey.bsky.social
&
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social
's policy brief
ecfr.eu/publication/...
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Beyond proxies: Iranâs deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon
Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflictâŠ
https://ecfr.eu/publication/beyond-proxies-irans-deeper-strategy-in-syria-and-lebanon/
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