This piece in National Interest about UK decision to buy nuclear F-35As wrongly claims B61-12 nuke will "sacrifice" aircraft stealth because bomb can't fit in the bomb bay. nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/th... No so. As this picture shows, the F-35A can carry two bombs internally.

1/ For once, not only bad news out of the Kremlin: ""Russia is prepared to continue adhering to the central numerical limits under the New START Treaty for one year after 5 February 2026." is.gd/0rAcRF

And a bit of nuclear chest-thumping here: "Volkel air base also hosts the U.S. Air Force 703rd Munitions Support Squadron", which provides security for nuclear weapons. is.gd/VS32sE

Concise, solid and constructive @deepcutsproject.bsky.social fact sheet laying out key challenges for finding a follow-on agreement and describing policy options to avoid an unconstrained nuclear arms build-up "After the New START treaty" expires February 2026. Take a look 👇‼️ is.gd/U3iPxH

Russia’s exercise Zapad is not only combat prep but also an instrument of strategic communication. The challenge is reading it right. ELN Senior Policy Fellow @alxgraef.bsky.social writes that confidence-and security-building measures (CSBMs) may help. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/n...

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Check out the ELN's latest Iran briefing ⤵️ mailchi.mp/europeanlead...

US B61 to be delivered by UK F35 are "something between hydrogen bomb and frontier policeman"? Well, B61 *are* hydrogen bombs to start with. Also, there are plenty of other, smarter "response options" than weapons of mass destruction. There is no "void" on the "escalation ladder". is.gd/gT8HUx

Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.

On September 11, 2001, US Strategic Command was—by sheer coincidence—one week into its annual Global Guardian nuclear command and control exercise. Strategic bombers had been armed with some 36 nuclear weapons, ICBMs and several SSBNs were on alert, and three E-4B airborne command posts were aloft.

Today in 1996, the United Nations General Assembly approved the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty on a vote of 158-3. Bhutan, India, and Libya all voted no. All five declared nuclear-weapon states (the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China) pledged to sign the treaty.

Potentially important step to averting #snapback: @iaeaorg.bsky.social DG Grossi said agreement gave access to “all facilities and installations in Iran, and contemplates required reporting on all attacked facilities, incl. the nuclear material”, referencing 440kg stockpile of 60% HEU. is.gd/4Xq76m

Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7

"Exercises are also instruments of strategic communication, intended to shape perceptions, signal resolve, and strengthen deterrence. The real challenge is reading them correctly. This is where confidence- and security-building measures may help" 1/2 europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/n...

For me, most scary part of this incredible story is that Trump was/is willing to take such risks with nuclear-armed adversaries. is.gd/eBpzjU

Now they just have to rename "Nobel Peace Prize" to "Nobel War Prize" and all will be good.

Russia declares @rusi.bsky.social an undesirable organisation, making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to "engage in the activities" of RUSI.

We are delighted to welcome Dr. Karin von Hippel to the ELN's Executive Board. Between 2015 and 2024, she served as Director-General of RUSI. Before that, she served for nearly six years in the US Department of State.

Check out the ELN's latest Iran briefing here ⤵️ mailchi.mp/europeanlead... Sign up to receive it direct to your inbox here ⤵️ europeanleadershipnetwork.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=...

All concerned should use next 30 days to seek off-ramp before snapback. Alternative is outcome nobody wants, except advocates of war. Good thoughts on stepping stones to avoiding such outcome in this @theeln.bsky.social piece by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social 👇‼️ europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=24532

News from climate change free-rider Washington: "Two weeks ago, Trump administration promised to punish countries — by applying tariffs, visa restrictions and port fees — that vote for a global agreement to slash greenhouse gas emissions from the shipping sector." www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/c...

"Two milestones approach. If no nuclear test is conducted by Jan. 14, 2026, the world will set a record for the longest period without a nuclear test since 1945. And on Sept. 24, 2026, we will mark the 30th anniversary of the CTBT’s opening for signature." is.gd/DzGg1P

If you are interested in how further escalation around #JCPOA #snapback deadline can be avoided, read this excellent piece by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social 👇‼️

"Russia has put forward a draft resolution on the extension of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which is due to expire in October, informed sources in the region have told Amwaj.media. The step appears designed to avert an imminent showdown between Iran and western governments." is.gd/t8DtFB

#ChemicalWeapons #Syria #Ghouta #Justice #Victims Syria's Sharaa vows accountability after meeting Ghouta chemical attack survivors www.newarab.com/news/sharaa-... [...] Meeting with several survivors, Sharaa vowed accountability and justice for the massacre that killed ...

New: Iran, E3 FMs to speak Friday on ‘snapback’ open.substack.com/pub/diplomat...

Must-read for all concerned about health of global non-proliferation regime and NPT: my great @theeln.bsky.social colleague @janabaldus.bsky.social on how different takes on nuclear deterrence divide international community and how #NPT should be revitalised as forum for addressing this question. 👇‼️

Putin said the discussions with the United States were aimed at creating "the long–term conditions of peace between our countries, in Europe, and in the world as a whole, if we reach agreements in the field of strategic offensive arms control in the next stages." is.gd/Zpvy7R

Take a look at our work around failsafe reviews, together with @nti.org @apln.network. Newly published analyses and background material support case that failsafe reviews by all nuclear weapons possessor should be easy-to-take, meaningful measures to reduce risks of accidental nuclear weapons use 👇‼️

Now apply that to intelligence analysis, for example on an adversary's preparations for nuclear first use.

Many in Europe resent some African states’ neutrality on Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, Daniel Ajudeonu of the YGLN notes this stance reflects economic realities, notably, Russia’s growing role in African nuclear energy development. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/m...

When words aren’t enough, we draw the picture. Nuclear danger is higher than at any point since the Cold War. ⚠ More warheads ⚠ Fewer safeguards ⚠ Growing risks of proliferation We can choose a safer future. Watch our new animated video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jm7...

A thoughtful reminder of the need to educate rising generations on the dangers of nuclear war -- worth reading. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/o...

80 years after Hiroshima, ELN Policy and Research Director @olivermeier.bsky.social warns that while leaders solemnly mark the bombing’s anniversary, their growing complacency toward nuclear weapons and proliferation raises the risk of use. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/u...

Today, on the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, ELN Policy and Research Director @olivermeier.bsky.social spoke to @ntvde.bsky.social (in German) about Hiroshima's legacy and its contemporary relevance. #Hiroshima80 www.n-tv.de/mediathek/vi...

Today marks the 80th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and the bombing of Nagasaki on the 6th & 9th August. This solemn anniversary provides an opportunity to reflect on the untold devastation caused by nuclear weapon use and the ongoing responsibility to ensure that they are not used again.

A history of nuclear blasts since 1945. AFP Infographic charting known nuclear blasts around the world since 1945, according to data collated by the Arms Control Association, and checked with UN documentation

Anlässlich des 80. Jahrestags heute habe ich mit @ntvde.bsky.social über den Atomwaffenangriff gegen Hiroshima gesprochen - und warum das Risiko eines Atomkriegs heute so groß ist wie lange nicht mehr. 👇 is.gd/2QvSAR

🚨 JUST IN: 80 years after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings, Arjun Makhijani reflects on the nuclear road no taken. In @thebulletin.org thebulletin.org/2025/08/the-... #nuclearweapons #80thanniversary #Hiroshima #Nagasaki #nukesky

Russian MFA announces that Russia "no longer considers itself bound by relevant self-imposed restrictions" [on deployment of INF-range missiles], citing US development & deployment of its INF-range systems in Europe and Asia. Moratorium is officially dead mid.ru/ru/foreign_p...

APLN Policy Fellow Joel Petersson Ivre @joelivre.bsky.social writes for The Korea Times and examines the paradox in South Korea’s public opinion, where support for #nuclearweapons is high while opposition to #nuclearpower remains strong. www.koreatimes.co.kr/opinion/colu... #NukeSky

Imagine sitting in an Ohio class somewhere deep under the ocean getting this message. “Medvedev bothering POTUS. Recalibrate target set to the following list of dachas”

⚡️Russia begins production of hypersonic missile, plans deployment to Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Aug. 1 that Moscow has begun production of its latest hypersonic missile, named "Oreshnik," and confirmed plans to deploy the weapon to Belarus later this year.

In a new ELN commentary, @peterrautenbach.bsky.social examines how experimental wargames can map AI-nuclear dangers and suggests three paths forward for how policymakers can use this to generate quality data around AI and nuclear risks. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/p...

Ahem (Deleted earlier version, which was missing caption!)

This week ELN Senior Policy Fellow on Russia-West relations @alxgraef.bsky.social, and ELN Project and Communications Coordinator @edansimpson.bsky.social were in Helsinki with other members of the Expert Network on the OSCE to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act. #OSCE25FI

As noted👇 the cost of the first boat in the Columbia SSBN class has risen to $16.1 billion. But per a comparison of the FY26 and FY25 Navy shipbuilding budget requests, the first boat is not alone in experiencing cost growth. (1/n)

Maybe this is the Trumpian version of "swords to plowshares"? ICBMs to .... in-flight entertainment systems? 🤔

Tomorrow, officials & civil society will gather in Helsinki to mark the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act. Former American career diplomat Paul Fritch argues that participants should shift from debating its relevance to rediscovering its legacy. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/h...

On Friday, I argued in @foreignpolicy.com that Trump admin claims it had set Iran back by "years" were true but disingenuous. The same day, the normally excellent David Ignatius amplified the misleading U.S. and Israeli narrative. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202... Let's take a look... (1/n)