A real AI-nuclear (and bio) nexus

That's how you break the deadlock at the Conference on Disarmament

I'm old enough to remember when cyber was the next big thing, the cyber-nuclear nexus was the hottest issue in town, and cyber capabilities were the deus ex machina of every wargame... www.vox.com/technology/4...

Tired: IAEA for AI Wired: INF Special Verification Commission for AI

I did not have Anthropic citing Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty as an example for AI regulation on my bingo card

Does anyone here have a WOTR subscription? 🙂

This is awesome

I recounted this to my wife. She asked whether I had considered that maybe I have been the problem all along and should stop participating in the NPT review process 😂

I participated in the NPT review process for the first time in 2013. There has not been a single agreed Final Document since then. When the next RevCon starts in 2031, it will have been 21 years since states parties last reached consensus.

No consensus on the Final Document of the 2026 NPT RevCon. *sigh*

All right, we got ourselves a gap year, folks. NPT RevCon decides to hold the next RevCon in 2031 in New York, with PrepComs in 2028 (Vienna), 2029 (Geneva), and 2030 (New York).

A fascinating article by Vasily Kashin, Center Director at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. The view is becoming more popular in Russia as of late, but we haven't seen it described as prominently in policy and research publications

The fifth draft of the NPT final document is even shorter. Gone: paragraphs on nuclear sharing/extended deterrence, DPRK/Korean Peninsula, Zaporizhzhia NPP. Iran compliance paragraph bracketed (no consensus), language on reporting weakened

The fourth draft of the NPT final document is significantly shorter: 8 pages instead of 13, with 7 preambular and 45 operative paragraphs instead of 19 and 93. A lot of things are gone.

I really like the Russian-Chinese Joint Declaration on the Emergence of a Multipolar World and International Relations of a New Type adopted today. Just read some of the points 🧵: "All states and their associations are free to choose their foreign partners and models of international cooperation."

Late in 2025 I saw a presentation on philanthropic contributions to various issues, which gave the following numbers for these issues: $10B — climate change $900M — AI safety $200M — biological threats $45M — nuclear security To just give a sense of orders of magnitudes...

The third draft of the NPT final document continues the trend of becoming less controversial and demanding, mostly losing parts of the text, including some added in Rev2. The only increase is on the side of peaceful uses, and some language on attacks against nuclear facilities 🧵

Just realized that next month Gen. Sergey Karakayev will mark 16 years as commander of Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, a record for both Russia and USSR. This is quite different from most other Russian services/ branches, which have seen significant turnover in recent years

Your classical NYC UN photo and - if you are at the NPT RevCon - a reminder to join us for our side event at 13:15 in CR8 on ensuring sustainable progress on risk reduction

P3 Joint Statement to the NPT RevCon encourages states to adopt concrete risk reduction measures, such as launch notifications and CBMs on nuclear testing and zero-yield. That's it, those are the measures.

Great contribution to the field from my colleague Sarah Ruth Opatowski. The compendium maps and analyzes a decade of nuclear risk reduction proposals across the NPT review process, First Committee, and other multilateral forums. Learn more at our side event at the RevCon on May 6, CR8

"The atomic age is ending. One age of deterrence, the atomic age, is ending, and a new era of deterrence built on A.I. is set to begin" - yeah, I don't think this is true

Был рад поговорить с Павлом Палажченко про ядерное оружие, гонку вооружений, распространение и угрозу ядерной войны urbietorbi.online/articles/202...

Happy Orthodox Easter and also the International Day of Human Space Flight 🙂

Russia just banned Stanford by declaring it an undesirable organization Coincidentally, Stanford is the alma mater of Russia's chief negotiator with the United States Kirill Dmitriev www.rbc.ru/politics/10/...

Russia designates Stanford University as an “undesirable organization,” making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to engage with it

Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) is again warning about nuclear threats. After claiming Ukraine is pursuing nuclear weapons, it now says the EU is too. Short thread 🧵

The ads I’m getting on Twitter lately are fascinating

Dmitry Trenin, formerly Director of Carnegie Moscow and now with Higher School of Economics and IMEMO, was elected to be the next President of the Russian International Affairs Council instead of the former foreign minister Igor Ivanov

Russia designates Tufts University as an “undesirable organization” making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to engage with it

Nominee for U.S. Strategic Command chief says “we have the capabilities and sufficient testing to satisfy ourselves on the reliability and efficacy of our nuclear warheads” www.reuters.com/world/nomine...

I’ve been cross-posting my Twitter threads to Bluesky for a while, and so far it just doesn’t work as a real alternative. My latest thread: 3 reposts and 5 likes here vs. 24 and 59 on Twitter. Even with fewer followers, the gap is hard to ignore.

Russia has submitted its national report to the 2026 NPT Review Conference (currently only in Russian – link in the first comment). Much of it is as you would expect if you have been following recent developments, but there are some pretty significant changes. A thread 🧵 1/15

To distract yourself from doomscrolling, please join us to discuss how to advance peaceful uses of nuclear energy in the NPT Review Process. We have a fantastic line-up from @worldnuclear.bsky.social, @iaeaorg.bsky.social, VCDNP and Amb Pekka Puustinen (Chair MC3) unidir.org/event/nuclea...

No Iranian withdrawal from the NPT for now, it seems www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

As we see higher and higher levels of escalation in the US and Israel war against Iran, I think about Iranian and Emirati nuclear power plants. Attacking them would have severe consequences and preventing this should be a priority

Everyone likes to talk about deterrence. Nobody likes to talk about deterrence breaking down. So a few observations based on what we’re seeing in the US war against Iran. Short thread 1/8

And here is the recording of our side event to the CD on nuclear risk reduction and the NPT featuring UK Amb David Riley, China Amb Shen Jian, Austrian Amb Alexander Kmentt, Reto Wollenmann from Swiss MFA and our own Sarah Ruth Opatowski. A rather interesting discussion youtu.be/hJgR_j4Hi6I?...

Pres. Macron says France will increase its nuclear arsenal. Not the first things that comes to mind amid all the tragedy and destruction, but it’s hard to see a successful NPT RevCon this year www.reuters.com/world/europe...

It’s hard to be optimistic right now. But the best-case scenario is that the real costs of wars of choice eventually lead to military restraint - simply because war is usually the worst outcome for everyone involved

Broad Iranian attacks against the Gulf states in response to US and Israeli attacks against Iran are a perfect illustration of escalation risks. Your adversary has a say, and in a war things rarely go as smoothly as planned.

Russian statement today about the UK and France working together on providing Ukraine with nuclear weapons and delivery systems is not the first time Moscow has mentioned this. A short thread with some context 1/x

This from 1987 discussion about the feasibility of a Low Threshold Ban is pure poetry

"The CTBTO’s IMS did not detect any event consistent with the characteristics of a nuclear weapon test explosion [on 22 June 2020]. Subsequent, more detailed analyses has not altered that determination" www.ctbto.org/resources/fo...

Pretty strong accusation against China on testing. Does this mean the US is now going to have a "yield producing nuclear test" (6 years later?)? Will the US release any supporting evidence?

This of course has been the position of Republican admins for a while. But also Abu Dhabi talks were clearly with Russia only. And in 2020, Trump admin gave up on this point and negotiated bilaterally

US UnderSecT DiNanno at the CD right now: bilateral arms control is impossible in 2026 because of China.

Arms control is dead, long live arms control

Pres. Trump just now "Rather than extend “NEW START” (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future".

Another bit of good news, US EUCOM says US and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military-to-military dialogue (it seems Grynkewich and Gerasimov) www.eucom.mil/pressrelease...