The ads I’m getting on Twitter lately are fascinating

Dmitry Trenin, formerly Director of Carnegie Moscow and now with Higher School of Economics and IMEMO, was elected to be the next President of the Russian International Affairs Council instead of the former foreign minister Igor Ivanov

Russia designates Tufts University as an “undesirable organization” making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to engage with it

Nominee for U.S. Strategic Command chief says “we have the capabilities and sufficient testing to satisfy ourselves on the reliability and efficacy of our nuclear warheads” www.reuters.com/world/nomine...

I’ve been cross-posting my Twitter threads to Bluesky for a while, and so far it just doesn’t work as a real alternative. My latest thread: 3 reposts and 5 likes here vs. 24 and 59 on Twitter. Even with fewer followers, the gap is hard to ignore.

Russia has submitted its national report to the 2026 NPT Review Conference (currently only in Russian – link in the first comment). Much of it is as you would expect if you have been following recent developments, but there are some pretty significant changes. A thread 🧵 1/15

To distract yourself from doomscrolling, please join us to discuss how to advance peaceful uses of nuclear energy in the NPT Review Process. We have a fantastic line-up from @worldnuclear.bsky.social, @iaeaorg.bsky.social, VCDNP and Amb Pekka Puustinen (Chair MC3) unidir.org/event/nuclea...

No Iranian withdrawal from the NPT for now, it seems www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

As we see higher and higher levels of escalation in the US and Israel war against Iran, I think about Iranian and Emirati nuclear power plants. Attacking them would have severe consequences and preventing this should be a priority

Everyone likes to talk about deterrence. Nobody likes to talk about deterrence breaking down. So a few observations based on what we’re seeing in the US war against Iran. Short thread 1/8

And here is the recording of our side event to the CD on nuclear risk reduction and the NPT featuring UK Amb David Riley, China Amb Shen Jian, Austrian Amb Alexander Kmentt, Reto Wollenmann from Swiss MFA and our own Sarah Ruth Opatowski. A rather interesting discussion youtu.be/hJgR_j4Hi6I?...

Pres. Macron says France will increase its nuclear arsenal. Not the first things that comes to mind amid all the tragedy and destruction, but it’s hard to see a successful NPT RevCon this year www.reuters.com/world/europe...

It’s hard to be optimistic right now. But the best-case scenario is that the real costs of wars of choice eventually lead to military restraint - simply because war is usually the worst outcome for everyone involved

Broad Iranian attacks against the Gulf states in response to US and Israeli attacks against Iran are a perfect illustration of escalation risks. Your adversary has a say, and in a war things rarely go as smoothly as planned.

Russian statement today about the UK and France working together on providing Ukraine with nuclear weapons and delivery systems is not the first time Moscow has mentioned this. A short thread with some context 1/x

This from 1987 discussion about the feasibility of a Low Threshold Ban is pure poetry

"The CTBTO’s IMS did not detect any event consistent with the characteristics of a nuclear weapon test explosion [on 22 June 2020]. Subsequent, more detailed analyses has not altered that determination" www.ctbto.org/resources/fo...

Pretty strong accusation against China on testing. Does this mean the US is now going to have a "yield producing nuclear test" (6 years later?)? Will the US release any supporting evidence?

This of course has been the position of Republican admins for a while. But also Abu Dhabi talks were clearly with Russia only. And in 2020, Trump admin gave up on this point and negotiated bilaterally

US UnderSecT DiNanno at the CD right now: bilateral arms control is impossible in 2026 because of China.

Arms control is dead, long live arms control

Pres. Trump just now "Rather than extend “NEW START” (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future".

Another bit of good news, US EUCOM says US and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military-to-military dialogue (it seems Grynkewich and Gerasimov) www.eucom.mil/pressrelease...

Per @axios.com Russia and the US agreed to stick to New START limits for another 6 months. Probably less than what we need, but hey, it's a start

Axios reports a draft agreement has been reached in Abu Dhabi between Witkoff/Kushner and Russian officials on sticking to New START limits after treaty expiration. Still needs to be approved by Trump, but seems likely. Deus ex machina www.axios.com/2026/02/05/n...

Statement of the Ru MFA on NST. TL;DR: arms control remains important. Russia proposed voluntary ceilings, but the US did not respond. Neither side is now bound by limits 1/2 mid.ru/ru/foreign_p...

Merry Christmas, to everyone who celebrates today 🎄

US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno speaks on BWC and bio security at the UN in Geneva on his first overseas trip

Looking forward to engaging with my UNODA colleagues and members states as part of the NPT regional consultations in Addis Ababa

A House of Dynamite has been widely reviewed, but I think much of the critique misses the point. Here’s my take: unidir.org/dynamite-mak...

The US now supports ROK’s nuclear enrichment and reprocessing. Given that Washington also supports ROK nuclear submarine program, what level of enrichment are we talking about? whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/20…

Can we please not?🙄

As we are entering the period of another nuclear arms race, it is important to understand the risks that increase in nuclear arsenals bring with it. Here’s our contribution to the discussion:

Senate confirmed Thomas DiNanno to be Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. State Department now has its top nuclear official in place. His predecessor Bonnie Jenkins was confirmed in July of 2021

Looking forward to three days of arms control discussions at @wiltonpark.bsky.social

President Putin announced Russia will stick to New START limits for a year after the treaty expiration in 2026, and will review its policy according to the US actions after www.rbc.ru/politics/22/...

Second use of NATO article 4 in two weeks. Those used to be really rare before, this is the 8th time ever since 1949

So Vzaimodeistvie-2025 is over and as far as I can see nobody disputed Belarus statement about the nuclear component of this CSTO exercise

Christopher Yeaw has been nominated for Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Stability. His most recent government position was Senior Policy Advisor for Defense Programs at NNSA, and before that, Chief Scientist of Air Force Global Strike Command

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov told parliament on Thursday that von der Leyen's plane had not experienced "prolonged interference or jamming." It seems sometimes it’s better to be cautious about those kind of things. Yes, this is a subtweet www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

CSTO exercise in Belarus will also include planning for nuclear weapons use. Is this the first time militaries from Belarus, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan participate in an exercise with a nuclear component? www.kommersant.ru/doc/8006081

“No investigation into disruption of GPS on von der Leyen plane. 'This interference is not targeted at one or another aviation object. Such things happen daily,' says Bulgarian Premier Zhelyazkov” - well, I didn’t know such things happened daily, but ok www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/no...

Russia declares @rusi.bsky.social an undesirable organisation, making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to "engage in the activities" of RUSI.

A weird turn of the story, but one that would answer my previous question about the physics of Russian jamming over Plovdiv airport…

So what would be the physics behind Russian "GPS jamming" over Plovdiv airport (but nowhere else around?) www.ft.com/content/3c33...

The spam is really getting better these days

So what happened with the Burevestnik test? www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Jobs with some great nuclear experts in Geneva.

Come work with me, @russianforces.org, and other great people at @unidir.org's WMD Programme as a Graduate Professional in Geneva or remotely unidir.org/job/graduate...

Обсудили с @bbcrussian.bsky.social отмену Россией моратория на развертывание РСМД youtu.be/ar5IvH4BT3s