Can we please not?🙄

As we are entering the period of another nuclear arms race, it is important to understand the risks that increase in nuclear arsenals bring with it. Here’s our contribution to the discussion:

Senate confirmed Thomas DiNanno to be Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. State Department now has its top nuclear official in place. His predecessor Bonnie Jenkins was confirmed in July of 2021

Looking forward to three days of arms control discussions at @wiltonpark.bsky.social

President Putin announced Russia will stick to New START limits for a year after the treaty expiration in 2026, and will review its policy according to the US actions after www.rbc.ru/politics/22/...

Second use of NATO article 4 in two weeks. Those used to be really rare before, this is the 8th time ever since 1949

So Vzaimodeistvie-2025 is over and as far as I can see nobody disputed Belarus statement about the nuclear component of this CSTO exercise

Christopher Yeaw has been nominated for Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Stability. His most recent government position was Senior Policy Advisor for Defense Programs at NNSA, and before that, Chief Scientist of Air Force Global Strike Command

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov told parliament on Thursday that von der Leyen's plane had not experienced "prolonged interference or jamming." It seems sometimes it’s better to be cautious about those kind of things. Yes, this is a subtweet www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

CSTO exercise in Belarus will also include planning for nuclear weapons use. Is this the first time militaries from Belarus, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan participate in an exercise with a nuclear component? www.kommersant.ru/doc/8006081

“No investigation into disruption of GPS on von der Leyen plane. 'This interference is not targeted at one or another aviation object. Such things happen daily,' says Bulgarian Premier Zhelyazkov” - well, I didn’t know such things happened daily, but ok www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/no...

Russia declares @rusi.bsky.social an undesirable organisation, making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to "engage in the activities" of RUSI.

A weird turn of the story, but one that would answer my previous question about the physics of Russian jamming over Plovdiv airport…

So what would be the physics behind Russian "GPS jamming" over Plovdiv airport (but nowhere else around?) www.ft.com/content/3c33...

The spam is really getting better these days

So what happened with the Burevestnik test? www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Jobs with some great nuclear experts in Geneva.

Come work with me, @russianforces.org, and other great people at @unidir.org's WMD Programme as a Graduate Professional in Geneva or remotely unidir.org/job/graduate...

Обсудили с @bbcrussian.bsky.social отмену Россией моратория на развертывание РСМД youtu.be/ar5IvH4BT3s

There are a lot of horrifying photographs of the damage and human toll at Hiroshima. But it's still this one that sticks in my mind the most. Noboricho Elementary School, about 1 km from ground zero. School children were an important source of data about the bomb's mortality. 98% fatalities.

I’m kind of frustrated with the whole INF moratorium discussion, so here are my two cents without going into the whole 9m729 controversy, which we don’t have facts to independently verify one way or the other. Thread 1/6

К 80ой годовщине ядерной бомбардировки Хиросимы попал в сюжет Ильи Варламова о ядерном оружии в компании Димы Ковчегина и @russianforces.org www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENJs...

Russian MFA announces that Russia "no longer considers itself bound by relevant self-imposed restrictions" [on deployment of INF-range missiles], citing US development & deployment of its INF-range systems in Europe and Asia. Moratorium is officially dead mid.ru/ru/foreign_p...

Getting back to discussions about “putting nuclear weapons in space”, here’s an interesting memorandum from Special Assistant for Science and Technology to President Kennedy in 1962, which mostly holds to this day. Short🧵1/4 history.state.gov/historicaldo...

It’s hard to imagine this is happening, but here we are “U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he had ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in regions near Russia in response to threats from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev” www.reuters.com/world/trump-...

Russia designated Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung @rosaluxglobal.bsky.social an "undesirable organization," making it a civil and criminal offence for Russian citizens to participate in the work of the foundation

Secretary-General Announces Members of Independent Scientific Panel on Effects of Nuclear War: 21 members, all P5 nationals are represented press.un.org/en/2025/dc39...

Поговорили об иранской ядерной программе и ущербе от израильских ударов с Марианной Беленькой на Первом радио youtu.be/JZX-GMJeIF4?...

Поговорил с русской службой BBC о ситуации вокруг ядерной программы Ирана youtu.be/Pp6n60txgPY

I’m not sure why I even need to say it, but countries should avoid major military action when they lack the resources to achieve their stated goals under reasonable real-world scenarios.

🎙️ NEW PODCAST: In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur from IISS, Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social, @lydiawachs.bsky.social & @baklitskiy.bsky.social discuss how Russia’s nuclear arsenal has evolved from the Soviet era & what #Armscontrol means for global security today. 🎧 Listen : tinyurl.com/59bkpxsf

I discussed Soviet and Russian nuclear weapons with Alex Bollfrass on the Arms Control Poseur podcast. Give it a listen! www.iiss.org/podcasts/arm...

President Putin says that the US and Russia will have to deal with the "extension" of the New START, which will end in a year. Quite a change of mood in Moscow tass.ru/politika/231...

President Trump would have no problems getting an arms control treaty through the Senate. Again, not that it’s very likely. But it is certainly possible

“The U.S. assessment found that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would at best set back its activities by months, and potentially only by weeks, said current and former officials.” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

As I said at a conference last December, we should be ready for things in the nuclear sphere to move very quickly in unexpected directions. There is a chance now of restart of Ru-US engagement on nuclear issues. There is also a chance that everything will fall apart, of course

Thomas Dinanno who was deputy assistant secretary and acting assistant secretary in the State AVC bureau in the first Trump admin was nominated for Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security www.semafor.com/article/02/1...

Kommersant reports that Sergey Rogov longtime Director (and recently Research Director) of Institute of US and Canada studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences died at the age of 76. A huge loss for Russian expert community h/t @dvsteff.bsky.social www.kommersant.ru/doc/7495931

The #DoomsdayClock has moved even closer to midnight 🕰️ Read our new report by @baklitskiy.bsky.social and Sarah Ruth Opatowski to find out what nuclear weapon States think about nuclear risks, related challenges and opportunities for their reduction 📙 🔗 unidir.org/RiskPerception

The doomsday clock was moved forward to 89 seconds to midnight. So in the last year, we got closer to destroying the world by one second? I'm not sure what to do with this information... thebulletin.org/doomsday-clo...

Some good news for a change: the Kazakh government announced that things are going well with the Northern part of the Aral Sea - once the third biggest lake in the world, now mostly dried up. Water volume is up 42%, salinity down 4 times www.gov.kz/memleket/ent... h/t mikeeckel.bsky.social

It took us a while, but I think we got pretty interesting insights about where the P5 see nuclear risks coming from and what can be done about them. Check out our report unidir.org/publication/...

US states that Russia “may have exceeded the deployed warhead limit” under the New START. It was just a matter of time after the inspections and information exchange stopped but the statement puts the issue on the priority list for the incoming Trump administration www.state.gov/2024-report-...

Happy New Year everyone 🙂 May it be a better one!

Russian Defense Minister Belousov said spending on national defense had reached 32.5% of the state budget and 6.3% of the GDP www.kommersant.ru/doc/7381417

Lt Gen Igor Kirillov, head of Russian CBRN forces, was killed in a IED explosion in Moscow. Ukraine has recently charged him with use of chemical weapons on the battlefield www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

It’s that time of the year

I wonder if President Putin truly believes that mass use of IRBMs is “comparable to nuclear use” (it isn’t) and if he does, what are the consequences of this, especially since his opponents hardly think so

Some eloquent (as always) thoughts on deterrence and deterrences from Lawrence Freedman. Many questions still remain open but it’s a very tough subject to deal with