A good take on the context of the war in Iran by Sara Al-Sayed for @ucs.org - The US–Israeli History Behind Their War Against Iran blog.ucs.org/sara-al-saye...

1. Hitting civilian power plants is a war crime 2. The US has been committing this war crime, to my knowledge, at least since the raid on Hanoi in which John McCain was shot down, which targeted an electric power plant in a dense urban setting giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Karelia Project 667BDRM/Delta IV submarine is preparing to resume service after a medium overhaul that included refueling (previous one in 2009). 16 Sineva/R-29RM missiles with up to 4 warheads each. (h/t @mrfrantarelli.bsky.social and @thelookout.bsky.social). Links follow 1/2

Uranium enriched to 60% is, of course, already a weapon-grade material in that it does not require further enrichment. A relevant paper from Science & Global Security. Lower enrichments, even HALEU, will work too. And design doesn't have to be implosion. scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/2025...

The Program on Science and Global Security invites applications for the Princeton School on Science and Global Security to be held July 27-31, 2026 at the International Center for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy. Applications close on April 17, 2026 sgs.princeton.edu/school2026

The Russian way of war is not working either. Maybe it's war that is the problem?

"If the American way of war can’t work against Iran, a weak regime with a middling military, there is no chance that it will work in a much harder case — China, say." Excellent piece by Jacquelyn Schneider www.ft.com/content/9fae...

Satellite company @planet.com has announced a *14 day delay* to the release of imagery in the MidEast. This will be a huge setback for those trying to verify events in the region.

Billions of dollars, decades of progress spent eliminating devastating diseases may be lost with undoing of USAID. theconversation.com/billions-of-...

It's only partially a joke that the entire Soviet military industrial complex was a ploy to get access to a legal source of ethanol... (From elib.biblioatom.ru/text/tremaso...)

In January @russianforces.org pointed out odd behaviour from the Russian ELS/TUNDRA satellite early warning system. The co-ordinated westward drift in apogee longitude appears to have ended in a co-ordinated manner. 🧵⬇️ bsky.app/profile/coas...

Apply now to the Scoville Fellowship! ⤵️ bsky.app/profile/scov...

The French nuclear test on May 1, 1962. It is known as the Béryl incident - apparently, there was serious release of radioactivity. But the film does not mention it at all. Maybe that was why it was made www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHMr... The explosion is at 11:45.

Note that Yeaw said "right near to Lop Nur site" www.youtube.com/live/LHEdJ5e... cc: @stevenjgibbons.bsky.social

Surprise, surprise--the military say that they are the (only) people to deal with the threat that they have identified.

Wouldn't it be correct to say that the war in Ukraine has shown that Russian "escalate to de-escalate" is not a thing?

A fascinating film from 1958, originally classified (h/t @wellerstein.bsky.social). The insanity of the scenario is staggering. Not to mention that the Soviet Union had, like, one and a half bomber. (In a way, it's anti-House of Dynamite, everybody is very calm.) youtu.be/jbSI6Tyc6AQ?...

I have a working paper that looks into the history of (some) Soviet and Russian false alarms and nuclear weapons incidents. A short summary (and a link to the full paper) is in the post. Links below. (Image: Fire on the Yekaterinburg submarine in 2011) 1/2

A data point on decoupling. The Soviet Union did an experiment back in 1976. 36-meter cavity (from another explosion), 10 kt, 15-fold signal reduction. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, p. 477)

Taught about the "decision to use the atomic bomb" a bit today, and the thing the students were audibly the most surprised by was Nagasaki being written in, by hand, on the penultimate draft of the strike order, after Kyoto had been definitely removed from the list for the final time.

The difference between zero enrichment in Iran and a couple of thousand centrifuges in Iran is quite modest, since Iran has shown the ability to install almost that many in a month. Some compromise there would be better than going back to military strikes, with all their risks and uncertainties.

Nine ministry of defense satellites launched from Plesetsk on Feb 5. The missions are not yet clear. One, Cosmos-2600, is on sun-synchronous orbit with altitude about 325 km. Others are at about 500 km orbits. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/02... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Those of you who are lucky to be in Paris, don't miss the chance to see Martin Parr's photos at Jeu de Paume. He is really good.

Russia takes back the commitment to stay within New START limits for one year, but leaves some room for doing it de facto (or together with the US). However, Putin's September initiative seemed only conditioned on the US response after a year, so maybe we'll see it again. mid.ru/ru/press_ser...

The Soviet Union, of course, had no weapons or delivery systems to do anything like this in 1954

@russianforces.org is pretty spot-on here. New START's probable expiry reflects the broader state of relations between Russia, the US, and China. Those poor relations are the fundamental source of nuclear risk, rather than the existence or not of a specific treaty. www.ft.com/content/fd1d...

What to expect when New START expires on 5 February 2026? Russia is likely to stick to its offer to stay within the limits. The US is likely to go for upload, but there are options about when and how. Links to the post below. 1/2

NUKEMAP is apparently making guest appearances on the London metro, to the surprise of many (including me — but I explicitly make it clear people can use its imagery for whatever without asking me!)

Back to Greenland and early-warning radars. As it turned out, a few things have changed. All radars got an upgrade to AN/FPS-132 (UEWR). Here is an updated Goole Earth file russianforces.org/US-Early-War.... The image shows Pituffik/Thule. Note that ranges are notional

All eyes on Greenland... Yes, the US has an early-warning radar there. And in many other places too. Here is a Google Earth file with US radar fans russianforces.org/US-Early-War... It's from 2018, but I don't think much has changed. Maybe the name - it's still Thule in the file.

65 years ago today, President Dwight D. Eisenhower delivered his Farewell Address, warning—inter alia—“against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”

"Wellerstein presents his story in clear, direct prose, ... 'The Most Awful Responsibility' is a well-written opus unpacking Truman’s—and America’s—complicated relationship with nuclear weapons." www.wsj.com/arts-culture...

That's a good milestone: "January 14, 2026 marks a milestone in world history. The world has gone eight years, four months, and 11 days without a nuclear test—the longest period since the Trinity test without a nuclear explosion" blog.ucs.org/dylan-spauld...

Those opposed to extending New START limits feel that it's their moment. If the limits are extended now, even for one year, it would be much more difficult to upload and do other things a year later. 1/

Forty years ago, on 15 January 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev announced a plan to eliminate all nuclear weapons by 2000. Here is the original poster and the English version. More details on the website russianforces.org/blog/2026/01... and Subtack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

I tried to put together an update of the status of the Russian strategic forces. My estimate is 575 launchers/1530 warheads (can "upload" to about 2100). It appears that R-36M2/SS-18 has been withdrawn. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/01... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

First Yars missiles deployed at Tatishchevo. Not clear if they are replacing Topol-M deployed there since 1997. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2025/12.... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

A nice video by DTRA on inspections. They are optimists and still maintain the program to train linguists and inspectors. Don't tell me that verification is hard or even impossible. There is a lot of expertise there. youtu.be/FNtV2-0QFzg?... (Image: R-39 removed for inspection?)

I am thrilled the newest "Russia's Nuclear Signaling" Chronology is published! Really glad @smetanamichal.bsky.social came onboard 15 months ago to continue this important work. A big thank you to all @swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social #STAND & @prcp.cuni.cz for making this possible! 1/7

My annual report, Space Activities in 2025, is now available at planet4589.org/space/papers...

Well, Russian early-warning satellites may not be dead yet. Thanks to @planet4589.bsky.social and @coastal8049.bsky.social for pointing out that it may be too early to write these satellites off. I still think the constellation is not quite well, but we'll see in a few months. Links below 1/

This is a nice addition to the "bad Cold War ideas" file — nukes that would detonate themselves at full yield "in the event the carrier and/or crew fell prey to the enemy defense." Never adopted as far as I know... from a Sandia study of nuclear safety issues, 1959.

The space segment of the Russian early-warning system is not in good shape. Only one satellite appears to be operational. The image shows mean motion of Cosmos-2563, launched in November 2022. Links to posts below 1/2

It's now clear that the Yars test launch in early December was postponed. Russia made another attempt on Dec 25-26, unclear if successful (probably not). russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... (The early December attempt is here russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...)

Oreshnik in Belarus? Something is definitely happening but there are reasons to be skeptical. I tried to put various bits together russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... Krichev-6 on the map below is the site identified by Jeffrey Lewis' team (seems rather close to the Russian border) 1/2

Missile defense was, of course, a big topic as well. Here is Putin in 2008 (I'd disagree with this logic, but it's a standard argument). What's interesting, the "barbaric" stuff was indeed under development. There is a photo of Status-6/Poseidon from 2009 russianforces.org/blog/2016/04...

Here is an interesting exchange between Bush and Putin in 2005. Uranium of Pakistani origin in Iran? And who are "they" who found it (if Iran didn't tell the IAEA)? nsarchive.gwu.edu/sites/defaul... (I must say I don't know Iran all that well, so maybe this is not something new at all)

Deployment of Yars missiles in Kozelsk completed russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... The decision to keep silos for Yars was made in 2008, first two missiles deployed in 2014. The total number of Yars missiles in Kozelsk silos is now 30. Post on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/deployment...

I'm excited about this — expect lots of interesting things in the new year! thebulletin.org/2025/12/alex...

Missile defense works perfectly ... against missiles that don't exist. Documents from the Katayev archive show how the Soviet Union concluded that it can come up with missile designs to defeat SDI. I'm sure it will be the same with the Golden Dome. Links to full posts below 1/2