I'll be doing this tomorrow!

I wouldn't be surprised if part of their pitch was, We can intercept that Burevestnik thing...

After U.S. moves to resume nuclear testing, Kremlin spokesman Peskov tells Trump Russia’s Burevestnik test was non-nuclear Experts Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) and Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center weigh in on the latest developments.

And here is 9M729. Note that "they began [to use it] on August 21." Russia formally announced the end of its moratorium on August 4. So, it appears that the moratorium on deployment was a thing. www.reuters.com/business/aer... 1/2

I wrote briefs on Putin's media gambit in Pokrovsk and Germany's deliberations on Rosneft Deutschland. Plus Trump's nuke testing order and Russia's Poseidon & Burevestnik tests. Always happy to get the chance to share insights from @russianforces.org. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

It's a sad sign of these sad times that many people assumed almost immediately that it's about nuclear tests. It's as if we want more bad nuclear news.

1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong. 1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.

it's striking how similar Putin is to Khrushchev when it comes to nuclear weapons and "unique" weapon systems. Totally the same vibe.

Russia ends the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, but the commitment not to use PMDA plutonium for military purposes appears to remain in place. Links in the next tweet. Image: A mock up of a container used to store plutonium at Mayak 1/2

I tried to take a look at the history of large strategic force exercises in Russia to see how the goals changed over the years. I don't think there is a clear pattern, but at least I have all these in one place. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... Image is from the 2017 one.

imo this is *not* space debris. It appears too fast for that. Rather, it looks like a slow fragmenting meteoric fireball of asteroidal origin, likely dropping meteorites. #Moscow #fireball

First 100 subscribers... It's easy to get a 1300% growth rate from a low base 🙂 If you prefer to get news by email, please subscribe (it's free). The link is below. I'm planning a post on how stated goals of strategic exercises have changed over the years. 1/2

Jeffrey is absolutely right about Burevestnik (it's from a NYT piece www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/w...), but the thing is that exactly the same can (and should) be said about US missile defense and Golden Dome in particular.

People are asking what's the purpose of Burevestnik and why develop a system that is very much useless as a weapon. The answer has always been right there, in the 1 March 2018 address. Russian president has always wanted to say these words. The rest doesn't matter really.

By the way, I don't think it's correct to call Burevestnik "a flying Chernobyl." I wouldn't be surprised if Russian engineers solved the problem of radioactivity in the heat exchanger/exhaust. And any radioactive trail would have been detected by someone.

On 21 October 2025 Russia conducted "the key test" of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile (also referred to as SSC-X-9 Skyfall). The test is reported to be successful. The missile travelled 14,000 km in a 15-hour flight (Image: Pan'kovo test site). Links follow 1/

Yes, assuming no common mode failures etc. But even without those, can one be certain of 95%-ish? Worth recalling that plenty of forecasts gave Clinton 99% chance in 2016. With unique events probability is not really a thing.

I have set up a Substack, so if you would rather get stuff in your email, please subscribe. I plan to keep it free. Substack also allows for a reasonably structured discussion - feel free to start it there. The subscription link is in the next post 1/

Russia conducted a regular exercise of strategic forces. Launches of Yars from Plesetsk, Sineva from Barents Sea (Bryansk submarine), and ALCMs from Tu-95MS. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... The image is a rare shot of a launch as seen from inside a Krona shelter.

The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA), which Russia is about to withdraw from, is an example of US violating its obligations. Link to a brief history is below. The US did ask eventually, but when Russia said no, went ahead with the change of plans anyway 1/

Strategic Simplicity folks looked at Russia's post-New START proposal (link next). Quite surprisingly, they came up with reasonable recommendations. Like the one below. I just came from an ACA First Committee side event, where I advocated something similar 1/

Congratulations to a new MacArthur fellow, Sébastien Philippe, @sebphilippe.bsky.social www.macfound.org/fellows/clas...

In New York for the UNGA First Committee on Disarmament & International Security? Make sure to check out ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer's and ELN Senior Network member @akmentt.bsky.social's side event ⤵️ docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

As fully expected, the US nuclear community is strongly against adhering to New START limits after Feb 2026. "Two peer competitors" etc. But the Russian proposal is vague enough to leave some room for US upload: "a similar spirit" does not have to mean full reciprocity. 1/

A somewhat confused piece in Politico re US plutonium by @zcolman.bsky.social. These 25 tonnes of plutonium in pits is the material identified as surplus 30 years ago, no way it "plays a central role in the US nuclear weapons stockpile" (pits are not "highly radioactive" by the way) 1/

This is from the "Air Force Doctrine Publication 3-72, Nuclear Operations," released in August 2025: "To achieve theater-level objectives, CCDRs [Combatant Commanders] may request the use of CONUS-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)..." h/t Al Mauroni, links ⬇️ 1/

A new @unidir.org report by Tamara Patton & @russianforces.org proposes the concept of ‘demonstrable verification’ to show compliance in the absence of agreed verification measures for nuclear arms control and space security 7/10

A serious question: What political decisions in the last four years (or even 40) the UK couldn't have taken if it didn't have nuclear weapons? Re last four years, the argument was: nuclear weapons allowed stronger support of Ukraine. But did they really?

Verification is a vital part of most arms control treaties. But strict verification can exist outside of treaties. New @unidir.org report introduces a concept of 'demonstrative verification' that allows states to prove compliance with their obligations unidir.org/dv

🗣️Come work with us! We are looking for a strategic and creative Digital Communications Coordinator to enable ICAN's world-changing work. Learn all about who we need and how to apply here: www.icanw.org/digital_comm... #opportunity #jobopening #hiring #nuclearban

I was an exhibit a few weeks back on atomic age posters — some pro, some anti — at Poster House in NYC... some thoughts on nuclear posters that work: doomsdaymachines.net/p/critical-m...

Right now. Washington, DC. Oh well...

Note this at the end of the letter: "Thank you for your attention to this highly important matter." :-)

If you think about it, one can, in fact, imagine 'Art. 5-style' guarantees plus no foreign troops in Ukraine plus a small(ish) Ukrainian army. One can even imagine that Moscow would be okay with it. But this would go very much against the conventional wisdom.

oof

Am I the only one who gets annoyed by this kind of stuff ChatGPT 5 adds to its answers? (I asked for an image of an ICBM silo)

We've launched our first-ever short fiction contest! Entries can be of any genre, as long as they have some connection to (avoiding) the apocalypse. The first-place wins $3,000, with $500 each to four runners-up. The deadline for submissions is September 30, 2025. thebulletin.org/write-before...

A very useful take on how we got here: compactmag.com/article/how-... I'd say it's rather biased, but you can imagine that from the Kremlin things looked like orders of magnitude darker. This is not to excuse Moscow, but it's useful to see this perspective.

Come work with me, @russianforces.org, and other great people at @unidir.org's WMD Programme as a Graduate Professional in Geneva or remotely unidir.org/job/graduate...

Hello! I have written a short article about the atomic bombings, and the anniversary that I think gets overlooked — when Truman *stopped* further atomic bombing, and why he did so. thebulletin.org/2025/08/trum...

No Constant Phoenix visiting Novaya Zemlya today - but an aircraft is visible off Pankovo in this morning's Sentinel 2 pass. As it is within restricted & sovereign airspace, it is likely one of the Russian monitoring aircraft operating from Rogachevo Airbase in support of the Burevestnik test.

Fair enough to say that it's hard to trust Russia after it did this or violated that. But it's puzzling to see this turned into "one cannot ever have an agreement with Russia" (on INF in particular, but not only). It doesn't work like that. 1/

PhD level

In case you missed it, here is "Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume XLIV, Part 1, National Security Policy, 1985–1988" history.state.gov/historicaldo...

Guess who got a 🚨FOIA release🚨! After 6 years. Will have upload link momentarily. #NukeSky #OpenSky Nuclear Weapon Safety from Production to Retirement, Stan Spray. You can enable my work: paypal.me/nuclearanthro patreon.com/nuclearanthro Afaik, I am 1st to put record into public: 1/2

К 80ой годовщине ядерной бомбардировки Хиросимы попал в сюжет Ильи Варламова о ядерном оружии в компании Димы Ковчегина и @russianforces.org www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENJs...

There are a lot of horrifying photographs of the damage and human toll at Hiroshima. But it's still this one that sticks in my mind the most. Noboricho Elementary School, about 1 km from ground zero. School children were an important source of data about the bomb's mortality. 98% fatalities.

I said it before and will say it again - had the US seriously engaged with Russia's October 2020 INF+9M729 moratorium proposal (like, by forming negotiating teams at the July 2021 summit), the war in Ukraine would have been averted. 1/

The idea of moving US ballistic missile submarines around for signaling purposes is not exactly new. Just a year ago, in July 2024, a perfectly Nuclear Submarine USS Tennessee made a very visible visit to the Norwegian Sea (link below) 1/