A strategic exercise in May is somewhat unusual - these are normally held in October - but not unprecedented. There was one in May 2014 russianforces.org/blog/2014/05...

Russia decided to join Belarus in its nuclear exercises... Speaking seriously, MoD announced a major exercise on 19-21 May, which will include ICBMs, submarines, cruise missile launches, non-strategic weapons (yes, including those in Belarus). Seems rather large-scale. Timing is rather unusual. 1/2

Are two successful tests enough to put a missile on combat duty? Probably not. On the other hand, these missiles are supposed to sit motionless in silos for tens of years. This they can certainly do. A lot of nuclear deterrence is theater (and not just in Russia).

Second successful test launch of Sarmat ICBM. The first one was in April 2022. Deployment to begin this year. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Putin today promised to deploy Russia's Sarmat ICBM "by the end of this year" — the same pledge he has made at least 10 times since 2021. The only fully successful Sarmat test before today was in April 2022. The missile exploded during a test in Sept 2024. t.me/astrapress/1...

“It is the most powerful missile system in the world,” Vladimir Putin said after receiving confirmation that the missile had struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s Far East.

Just a thought - maybe this tells us something. Like, people don't actually believe nuclear weapons are all that dangerous. And they may have a point - nuclear weapon are pretty much useless and unusable.

Does nuclear stockpile stewardship’s science diminish global security? Stewart Prager and Denisse Córdova Carrizales argue that it does (and provide a good overview of the SSP) physicstoday.aip.org/opinion/does...

US Space Force updated catalog entries for many Russian military satellites: Cosmos-2600-2608 russianforces.org/blog/2026/02..., 2609-2614 russianforces.org/blog/2026/04..., and 2615-2618 russianforces.org/blog/2026/04.... It is not clear if these are real Cosmos numbers. Russia hasn't said anything

It's not that there are "no easy answers." There are no answers open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Great contribution to the field from my colleague Sarah Ruth Opatowski. The compendium maps and analyzes a decade of nuclear risk reduction proposals across the NPT review process, First Committee, and other multilateral forums. Learn more at our side event at the RevCon on May 6, CR8

"The Mirage of European Nuclear Weapons. There is no scenario in which nuclear weapons can contribute to the security of Europeans." My op-ed in @Forsv_forum "Kjernevåpen for Europa – en illusjon." English version - Web: russianforces.org/podvig/2026/... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Angara launch deploys four military satellites on 23 April 2026. Most likely MKA small optical reconnaissance satellites. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

How many nuclear weapons did the US Air Force want in the late 1950s? An official history says: "a fantastic number." But unfortunately it doesn't quote the actual number. It does quote the Army, however, as wanting over 100,000 "battlefield" nukes, and imagining they could use over 400 per day.

Launch of multiple military satellites from Plesetsk (on 17 April 2026). Two groups of satellites deployed, mission is unknown, Cosmos designations have not been released. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

60 yrs ago today, “The War Game”—the shocking docudrama written/directed/produced by Peter Watkins—had the first of four invitation-only screenings at the British Film Institute’s National Film Theatre in London for members of the establishment after the BBC banned its broadcast on October 6, 1965.

For DOOMSDAY MACHINES this week, a post that has in some sense been in the making for something like a decade. It is a very close look at the "war plan," QUICK STRIKE, featured in the formerly classified 1958 film "The Power of Decision," produced for the USAF. doomsdaymachines.net/p/a-long-loo...

What a nuclear crisis looks like in NUKEMAP logs... these are hourly unique visitors over the last 24 hours, via Cloudflare.

This is pretty much the mildest thing I said about the current situation... perhaps for the best, though... every time I talk to a reporter I come away feeling totally unhinged, because I'm being asked "normal" questions about totally insane things. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...

The reason that the US President has the exclusive authority to order the use of nuclear weapons is because Truman set up the system along those lines after WWII. This is often depicted as either a power grab, or because in the nuclear age such decisions "must" be made quickly. This is false.

New Meridian-M communication satellite is in orbit russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

A good take on the context of the war in Iran by Sara Al-Sayed for @ucs.org - The US–Israeli History Behind Their War Against Iran blog.ucs.org/sara-al-saye...

1. Hitting civilian power plants is a war crime 2. The US has been committing this war crime, to my knowledge, at least since the raid on Hanoi in which John McCain was shot down, which targeted an electric power plant in a dense urban setting giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Karelia Project 667BDRM/Delta IV submarine is preparing to resume service after a medium overhaul that included refueling (previous one in 2009). 16 Sineva/R-29RM missiles with up to 4 warheads each. (h/t @mrfrantarelli.bsky.social and @thelookout.bsky.social). Links follow 1/2

Uranium enriched to 60% is, of course, already a weapon-grade material in that it does not require further enrichment. A relevant paper from Science & Global Security. Lower enrichments, even HALEU, will work too. And design doesn't have to be implosion. scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/2025...

The Program on Science and Global Security invites applications for the Princeton School on Science and Global Security to be held July 27-31, 2026 at the International Center for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy. Applications close on April 17, 2026 sgs.princeton.edu/school2026

The Russian way of war is not working either. Maybe it's war that is the problem?

"If the American way of war can’t work against Iran, a weak regime with a middling military, there is no chance that it will work in a much harder case — China, say." Excellent piece by Jacquelyn Schneider www.ft.com/content/9fae...

Satellite company @planet.com has announced a *14 day delay* to the release of imagery in the MidEast. This will be a huge setback for those trying to verify events in the region.

Billions of dollars, decades of progress spent eliminating devastating diseases may be lost with undoing of USAID. theconversation.com/billions-of-...

It's only partially a joke that the entire Soviet military industrial complex was a ploy to get access to a legal source of ethanol... (From elib.biblioatom.ru/text/tremaso...)

In January @russianforces.org pointed out odd behaviour from the Russian ELS/TUNDRA satellite early warning system. The co-ordinated westward drift in apogee longitude appears to have ended in a co-ordinated manner. 🧵⬇️ bsky.app/profile/coas...

Apply now to the Scoville Fellowship! ⤵️ bsky.app/profile/scov...

The French nuclear test on May 1, 1962. It is known as the Béryl incident - apparently, there was serious release of radioactivity. But the film does not mention it at all. Maybe that was why it was made www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHMr... The explosion is at 11:45.

Note that Yeaw said "right near to Lop Nur site" www.youtube.com/live/LHEdJ5e... cc: @stevenjgibbons.bsky.social

Surprise, surprise--the military say that they are the (only) people to deal with the threat that they have identified.

Wouldn't it be correct to say that the war in Ukraine has shown that Russian "escalate to de-escalate" is not a thing?

A fascinating film from 1958, originally classified (h/t @wellerstein.bsky.social). The insanity of the scenario is staggering. Not to mention that the Soviet Union had, like, one and a half bomber. (In a way, it's anti-House of Dynamite, everybody is very calm.) youtu.be/jbSI6Tyc6AQ?...

I have a working paper that looks into the history of (some) Soviet and Russian false alarms and nuclear weapons incidents. A short summary (and a link to the full paper) is in the post. Links below. (Image: Fire on the Yekaterinburg submarine in 2011) 1/2

A data point on decoupling. The Soviet Union did an experiment back in 1976. 36-meter cavity (from another explosion), 10 kt, 15-fold signal reduction. (Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, p. 477)

Taught about the "decision to use the atomic bomb" a bit today, and the thing the students were audibly the most surprised by was Nagasaki being written in, by hand, on the penultimate draft of the strike order, after Kyoto had been definitely removed from the list for the final time.

The difference between zero enrichment in Iran and a couple of thousand centrifuges in Iran is quite modest, since Iran has shown the ability to install almost that many in a month. Some compromise there would be better than going back to military strikes, with all their risks and uncertainties.

Nine ministry of defense satellites launched from Plesetsk on Feb 5. The missions are not yet clear. One, Cosmos-2600, is on sun-synchronous orbit with altitude about 325 km. Others are at about 500 km orbits. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/02... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...

Those of you who are lucky to be in Paris, don't miss the chance to see Martin Parr's photos at Jeu de Paume. He is really good.

Russia takes back the commitment to stay within New START limits for one year, but leaves some room for doing it de facto (or together with the US). However, Putin's September initiative seemed only conditioned on the US response after a year, so maybe we'll see it again. mid.ru/ru/press_ser...

The Soviet Union, of course, had no weapons or delivery systems to do anything like this in 1954

@russianforces.org is pretty spot-on here. New START's probable expiry reflects the broader state of relations between Russia, the US, and China. Those poor relations are the fundamental source of nuclear risk, rather than the existence or not of a specific treaty. www.ft.com/content/fd1d...

What to expect when New START expires on 5 February 2026? Russia is likely to stick to its offer to stay within the limits. The US is likely to go for upload, but there are options about when and how. Links to the post below. 1/2

NUKEMAP is apparently making guest appearances on the London metro, to the surprise of many (including me — but I explicitly make it clear people can use its imagery for whatever without asking me!)

Back to Greenland and early-warning radars. As it turned out, a few things have changed. All radars got an upgrade to AN/FPS-132 (UEWR). Here is an updated Goole Earth file russianforces.org/US-Early-War.... The image shows Pituffik/Thule. Note that ranges are notional