Oreshnik in Belarus? Something is definitely happening but there are reasons to be skeptical. I tried to put various bits together russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... Krichev-6 on the map below is the site identified by Jeffrey Lewis' team (seems rather close to the Russian border) 1/2

Missile defense was, of course, a big topic as well. Here is Putin in 2008 (I'd disagree with this logic, but it's a standard argument). What's interesting, the "barbaric" stuff was indeed under development. There is a photo of Status-6/Poseidon from 2009 russianforces.org/blog/2016/04...

Here is an interesting exchange between Bush and Putin in 2005. Uranium of Pakistani origin in Iran? And who are "they" who found it (if Iran didn't tell the IAEA)? nsarchive.gwu.edu/sites/defaul... (I must say I don't know Iran all that well, so maybe this is not something new at all)

Deployment of Yars missiles in Kozelsk completed russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... The decision to keep silos for Yars was made in 2008, first two missiles deployed in 2014. The total number of Yars missiles in Kozelsk silos is now 30. Post on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/deployment...

I'm excited about this — expect lots of interesting things in the new year! thebulletin.org/2025/12/alex...

Missile defense works perfectly ... against missiles that don't exist. Documents from the Katayev archive show how the Soviet Union concluded that it can come up with missile designs to defeat SDI. I'm sure it will be the same with the Golden Dome. Links to full posts below 1/2

In early December Russia released NOTAMs for the 3-7 December window covering Plesetsk and Kura. By all indications it was a Yars launch. The test was either cancelled or postponed - NOTAMs were cancelled on 2 December (h/t @thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...

Oh no. This is a very sad news. Bill was great.

Knyaz Pozharsky submarine was accepted for service in July 2025, but it's not clear if it test-launched its missile, Bulava. NOTAMs suggest that the launch was planned (h/t @m514ever.bsky.social) and it's likely it was scrubbed. But hard to say this with certainty. Links below. 1/

I am going to be holding a talk and discussion of my NEW BOOK about Truman and the atomic bomb on December 16, 2025 at 12-2pm ET. The event will be in Paris (free to anyone who is local — 18:00-20:00 CET), but also streamed on Zoom. Here is the event description: www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/even...

Oh and TOMORROW, FRIDAY, December 5th, I will be doing an AMA about the book on Reddit's AskHistorians forum. Exact time TBD but it will probably start around 10am ET and go for a few hours.

By all indications, the event in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy was a failed Sarmat test (links to the full post below). So much for the promise to deploy the first Sarmat in 2025. I wouldn't overdramatize this - stuff happens. And it's not like Russia needs Sarmat. 1/

Full video of the launch t.me/militaryruss.... Colleagues are positive it's SS-18 or Sarmat (they are quite similar). My guess is that Sarmat is more likely. A launch from Yasnyy logical after last year failure in Plesetsk. As for SS-18, it hasn't been tested for a while (2014?) so why do it now?

For comparison, here is a failed Proton launch in 2013. It's a bigger rocket, but it's UDMH/NOx too www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycRV...

Something happened in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy. There is also a video and some NOTAMs t.me/militaryruss.... Looks like a failed ICBM launch. The color of this cloud doesn't look good. Not clear if it's Sarmat. There are other options: SS-18 or SS-19. Wait for more information.

Excellent stuff here from Tatiana Stanovaya. x.com/Stanovaya/st...

Apparently, it's the first document of this kind in quite a while (since 2005?). Here is the link www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/w...

Three Rodnik communication satellites launched from Plesetsk by Angara 1.2 launcher. Will be designated Cosmos-2597, -2598, and -2599. This is second Rodnik launch in 2025 (previous in March). Links in the next post. 1/

This post by @wellerstein.bsky.social doomsdaymachines.net/p/nuclear-we... reminded me of an interesting observation by a colleague based on her interviews about attitudes toward nuclear weapons: Older generation experts are quite emotional about nuclear weapons. The younger folks, not so much.

By the way, my old take on "strategic stability" thebulletin.org/2012/10/the-...

Looks like an interesting book - “Strange Stability: How Cold War Scientists Set Out to Control the Arms Race and Ended Up Serving the Military-Industrial Complex.” Author's interview to Harvard Gazette share.google/saasRud8lxHm...

Niels Bohr writing to Carlsberg Foundation: "I respectfully request a travel grant of 2500 Kr for a one-year study stay at foreign universities." That's it. That's the entire proposal. He received approval the next day...

I'm not an economist, so don't shoot me. One idea shows up in many places in @johncassidysays.bsky.social Capitalism & its Critics: Capitalism is truly effective in amassing wealth, which must be spent (it creates problems otherwise). But the system cannot spend it on citizens' welfare... 1/

There seems to be a new date for Sarmat deployment: "experimental combat duty" in 2025 and "combat duty" in 2026. The former seems plausible: Rocket Forces can put it into one of the Uzhur silos (like the one below). The latter is unlikely w/o tests. Links to posts in reply 1/

By the way, Lavrov's "we are ready to discuss US suspicions regarding nuclear experiments" appears to be the first of this kind. Back in 2020, when the accusations was first made, the official response was "we do not intend to discuss compliance [with the US]"

Lavrov at a press conference today: "We are ready to discuss..." mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... Well, that would be a useful discussion. It's funny that on this issue it's Russia that is the adult in the room.

I'll be doing this tomorrow!

I wouldn't be surprised if part of their pitch was, We can intercept that Burevestnik thing...

After U.S. moves to resume nuclear testing, Kremlin spokesman Peskov tells Trump Russia’s Burevestnik test was non-nuclear Experts Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) and Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center weigh in on the latest developments.

And here is 9M729. Note that "they began [to use it] on August 21." Russia formally announced the end of its moratorium on August 4. So, it appears that the moratorium on deployment was a thing. www.reuters.com/business/aer... 1/2

I wrote briefs on Putin's media gambit in Pokrovsk and Germany's deliberations on Rosneft Deutschland. Plus Trump's nuke testing order and Russia's Poseidon & Burevestnik tests. Always happy to get the chance to share insights from @russianforces.org. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

It's a sad sign of these sad times that many people assumed almost immediately that it's about nuclear tests. It's as if we want more bad nuclear news.

1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong. 1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.

it's striking how similar Putin is to Khrushchev when it comes to nuclear weapons and "unique" weapon systems. Totally the same vibe.

Russia ends the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, but the commitment not to use PMDA plutonium for military purposes appears to remain in place. Links in the next tweet. Image: A mock up of a container used to store plutonium at Mayak 1/2

I tried to take a look at the history of large strategic force exercises in Russia to see how the goals changed over the years. I don't think there is a clear pattern, but at least I have all these in one place. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... Image is from the 2017 one.

imo this is *not* space debris. It appears too fast for that. Rather, it looks like a slow fragmenting meteoric fireball of asteroidal origin, likely dropping meteorites. #Moscow #fireball

First 100 subscribers... It's easy to get a 1300% growth rate from a low base 🙂 If you prefer to get news by email, please subscribe (it's free). The link is below. I'm planning a post on how stated goals of strategic exercises have changed over the years. 1/2

Jeffrey is absolutely right about Burevestnik (it's from a NYT piece www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/w...), but the thing is that exactly the same can (and should) be said about US missile defense and Golden Dome in particular.

People are asking what's the purpose of Burevestnik and why develop a system that is very much useless as a weapon. The answer has always been right there, in the 1 March 2018 address. Russian president has always wanted to say these words. The rest doesn't matter really.

By the way, I don't think it's correct to call Burevestnik "a flying Chernobyl." I wouldn't be surprised if Russian engineers solved the problem of radioactivity in the heat exchanger/exhaust. And any radioactive trail would have been detected by someone.

On 21 October 2025 Russia conducted "the key test" of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile (also referred to as SSC-X-9 Skyfall). The test is reported to be successful. The missile travelled 14,000 km in a 15-hour flight (Image: Pan'kovo test site). Links follow 1/

Yes, assuming no common mode failures etc. But even without those, can one be certain of 95%-ish? Worth recalling that plenty of forecasts gave Clinton 99% chance in 2016. With unique events probability is not really a thing.

I have set up a Substack, so if you would rather get stuff in your email, please subscribe. I plan to keep it free. Substack also allows for a reasonably structured discussion - feel free to start it there. The subscription link is in the next post 1/

Russia conducted a regular exercise of strategic forces. Launches of Yars from Plesetsk, Sineva from Barents Sea (Bryansk submarine), and ALCMs from Tu-95MS. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... The image is a rare shot of a launch as seen from inside a Krona shelter.

The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA), which Russia is about to withdraw from, is an example of US violating its obligations. Link to a brief history is below. The US did ask eventually, but when Russia said no, went ahead with the change of plans anyway 1/

Strategic Simplicity folks looked at Russia's post-New START proposal (link next). Quite surprisingly, they came up with reasonable recommendations. Like the one below. I just came from an ACA First Committee side event, where I advocated something similar 1/

Congratulations to a new MacArthur fellow, Sébastien Philippe, @sebphilippe.bsky.social www.macfound.org/fellows/clas...

In New York for the UNGA First Committee on Disarmament & International Security? Make sure to check out ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer's and ELN Senior Network member @akmentt.bsky.social's side event ⤵️ docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

As fully expected, the US nuclear community is strongly against adhering to New START limits after Feb 2026. "Two peer competitors" etc. But the Russian proposal is vague enough to leave some room for US upload: "a similar spirit" does not have to mean full reciprocity. 1/