Great debate on "gulf" between academic community that believes in "theory of the nuclear revolution, strategic stability, counter-population or minimum deterrence & US gov't...who saw enduring value in damage limitation strategies or counterforce" strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/debating-d...

🧵New piece from me @goodauth.bsky.social on risks of striking Venezuela, focused on the added risk from Trump team of loyalists. Hint: it has to do with centralized role of Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, and the incompetence of advisers like SecDef Hegseth. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...

Brilliant and deeply researched essay by Lindsey O'Rourke and Alex Downes on the many dangers of regime change operations. www.foreignaffairs.com/venezuela/re...

One of those rare times the President should trust his instincts

Rare MAGA on MAGA violence over Congressional control of defense policy www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...

My latest with Mike O'Hanlon on why a military campaign against Venezuela will likely fail: nationalinterest.org/feature/bomb...

Good development but need more details to know what it really means. Who can actually connect rapidly with whom here is a big deal.... www.militarytimes.com/news/pentago...

Does acting like an irrational maniac make Trump a more effective negotiator? In a word, no. My new @lawfaremedia.org piece with Samuel Seitz explains why. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...

History demonstrates why the administration’s approach of “strategic uncertainty” is unlikely to produce better deals, write Samuel Seitz and @proftalmadge.bsky.social. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...

This is good. taskandpurpose.com/news/vet-gro...

I never knew Halloween could feel heavy, but it's hard to slap on a smile and gear up for a holiday about gorging on candy when millions of kids are about to lose SNAP benefits.

Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

As I was saying… 👇🏻

Trump continues to be both arsonist and fireman.

Wut. This is actually way more puzzling than Trump's tweet. 🤔 How on earth are we going to build ROK nuclear-powered subs in... *checks notes*... Philadelphia? If it were that easy we wouldn't be having so much difficulty building our own and the ones we owe Australia. www.ft.com/content/a6ee...

Congress pushing back against Hegseth attempts to restrict military communications with Congress, a bedrock of healthy civilian control of the military. 👏👏👏 www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...

Can't wait to read this!

FWIW it's not in US interest to normalize nuclear testing. We have the data we need from many earlier tests, but China doesn't, so China has the potential to gain much more than we do from resumption of testing. But I suspect POTUS was referencing testing *delivery vehicles* anyway-- not warheads.

1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong. 1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.

Signs mounting that U.S. plans to bomb Venezuela, ostensibly with the goal of toppling the regime. Unfortunately the track record of this kind of campaign is uniformly poor. A short thread. 1/8 www.wsj.com/world/americ...

Ensuring the future surface fleet can deter China is a great idea! Step 1: Stop sending the current fleet off on a fool's errand in the Caribbean. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Just a reminder that this 8th attack, just the first 7, is illegal: 1. Not self-defense 2. No (or any) Congressional authorization 3. No evidence of criminal wrongdoing 4. Int'l waters 5. No open state of hostility 6. Criminal groups are not terrorists legally 7. No id on people or group targeted

Excited to be speaking on defense strategy @brookings.edu next week, along with keynoters Rep. Adam Smith and Rep. Elissa Slotkin. Join us in person or online! www.brookings.edu/events/the-2...

Wild breach of US civil-military norms. Our Constitution divides control of the military between the executive and the legislature. Hard for Congress to exercise that control without information. But perhaps it will get Congress to wake up. breakingdefense.com/2025/10/pent...

Fantastic news

At least they realized a summit with Putin was a waste of time beforehand this time? I'm all for negotiating an end to the horrific Ukraine war, but there is a difference between negotiation vs. just agreeing to everything the aggressor wants and calling it peace. www.ft.com/content/49eb...

Thorough and fairly devastating run down of Hegseth's tenure thus far, featuring a surprising number of anonymous quotes from senior military officers www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/oc...

It's like they have complete amnesia about the 30 Years' War against Iraq. www.wsj.com/world/americ...

@poni.csis.org is now accepting applications for the 2026 Nuclear Scholars cohort! Just as this year, PONI is able offer a few spots to non-U.S. citizens for 2026. I have had the opportunity to participate this year and cannot recommend the program enough. Apply by November 17!

Unnecessary and dangerous. If we have so many extra 155mm artillery shells lying around that we can detonate them over our own highways for a Vance/Hegseth vanity project, maybe send them to Ukraine instead? www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/u...

China and Russia have to be laughing their heads off at this giant waste of U.S. military time and effort. Christmas will come early for them if the U.S. gets bogged down in a needless & pointless regime change operation in the western hemisphere. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/u...

Came across this gem reading Congressional testimony today

Most uplifting thing I’ve read all year and it might even be right www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/why-i-have...

Great piece from @jackieschneider.bsky.social explaining why Trump's decision to divert the military to internal missions in US cities will undermine military effectiveness, no matter how big the defense budget gets. on.ft.com/3L2jOD3

Welcome to Late Stage Civil-Military Dysfunction. When you fire the JAGs & then order the military to do unlawful things, this is what you get. Alarm bells should be ringing-- combatant commander stepping down during ongoing military operations is unprecedented AFAIK. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/16/u...

"So if the U.S. is not in an authorized military conflict with these targets under either domestic or international law, what is it? Well, colloquially, we call it murder.... Pay attention to what is happening on the high seas, because the plan is to bring it to a city street near you."

"If Trump is not careful, unilateral U.S. military action in Venezuela could see the country collapse into chaos, potentially fueling a Libya-style meltdown just a three-hour flight from Miami." foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/16/v...

Delighted to have joined the Strategic Simplicity podcast to continue the discussion of China's nuclear forces

Kurt Campbell spot on here in noting that China not only lacks interest in escalation management but actually sees benefits in making the US worry about escalation dangers. That's a feature, not a bug, of Chinese approach (or lack thereof) to arms control. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Absolutely the right call. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/u...

An important and brilliant essay from @himself.bsky.social. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/o...

Siri, tell me what an extremely insecure man sounds like www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/u...

Delighted to have joined the Strategic Simplicity Podcast with @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, @fravel.bsky.social, Austin Long, and Vipin Narang to discuss China's nuclear strategy!

Sharp analysis here from @mpoznansky.bsky.social and Erik Sand, regarding what this summer's spectacular Israeli and Ukrainian drone strikes do-- and don't-- mean for U.S.

The Bike Will Always Get Through? Vivid example of how drones both constrict and create opportunities for movement on the battlefield. www.twz.com/news-feature...

"The White House tried to oust Buria, but struggled to find a replacement who wanted the job." www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

"The hour-long fight, which took place in darkness, involved some 110 aircraft, making it the world's largest air battle in decades.... Faulty intelligence gave the [Indian] Rafale pilots a false sense of confidence they were out of Pakistani firing distance." www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Probably the first time that idle shitposting has resulted in concrete changes to an adversary’s nuclear posture.

Hard to deter if you can't get to the fight: "If Nato’s tanks were called to respond to an invasion by Moscow’s forces across the EU’s eastern border, they would get stuck in tunnels, cause bridges to collapse and get snarled up in border protocols" www.ft.com/content/d77d...

Beyond issues with interceptor quantity, "U.S. ships had to head to port in the Med or the Red Sea after shooting all of their interceptors, because the Navy doesn’t yet have a reliable way to reload at sea." Significant implications here for conflict in Indo-Pacific www.wsj.com/world/israel...