I strongly support reviving the bilateral arms control process. Nuclear danger is a thing! But the changing legal status of Rubezh/Oreshnik shows what Putin is offering at the moment is a sham: the appearance of arms control, rather than the real thing.

China is undergoing major changes in how it thinks about nuclear weapons, as indicated in the just released China Military Power Report. 2 developments stand out. media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...

Been wondering about this for a year. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/w...

Battleships are just big targets in a war with another great power. If we have money to throw around we should be building more attack submarines, which are dramatically more survivable in all the scenarios that matter. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/u...

Sobering analysis: "The reality of a possible U.S.-Venezuelan confrontation is that while Venezuela cannot win a conventional war, it can make a U.S. intervention a costly, uncertain, and politically explosive gamble." warontherocks.com/2025/12/weak...

Please consider donating to the Go Fund Me set up to support the family of Nuno Loureiro, the MIT professor horrifically slain in his home earlier this week. He leaves behind a wife and three young daughters. Link here: gofund.me/d9681940c

"It would withhold 25 percent of Mr. Hegseth’s travel budget if he failed to give the congressional national security committees the video footage and the command orders behind the strikes." www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/u...

Great new essay by my colleague Vipin Narang on why strategic stability isn't always good, and arms races aren't always bad, among other topics strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/four-shibb...

A reminder that while we debate the vulnerability of submarines to various technologies, submarine BASES also face potential threats. US has only 2 such bases for ballistic missile submarines. www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

Useful discussion of emerging British ASW concept for defending GIUK gap against Russian attack subs, relying on AI and underwater gliders. www.ft.com/content/d803...

My quick take on the Trump National Security Strategy www.brookings.edu/articles/bre...

Fantastic article, though I still worry more about a Chinese coercive campaign against Taiwan than I do about a full-blown invasion. www.wsj.com/world/china/...

Much scarier than the Burevestnik test www.wsj.com/world/russia...

Quite a double standard here: "Despite concluding that an armed conflict is underway, the memo also says the operation is not covered by the War Powers Resolution" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/u...

Civil-military relations again rears its head as a key variable in the generation of authoritarian military power... Good quotes from @josephtorigian.bsky.social here www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/w...

Significant development-- could pave the way for introduction of U.S. nuclear weapons to Japanese territory www.reuters.com/world/china/...

Great debate on "gulf" between academic community that believes in "theory of the nuclear revolution, strategic stability, counter-population or minimum deterrence & US gov't...who saw enduring value in damage limitation strategies or counterforce" strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/debating-d...

🧵New piece from me @goodauth.bsky.social on risks of striking Venezuela, focused on the added risk from Trump team of loyalists. Hint: it has to do with centralized role of Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, and the incompetence of advisers like SecDef Hegseth. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...

Brilliant and deeply researched essay by Lindsey O'Rourke and Alex Downes on the many dangers of regime change operations. www.foreignaffairs.com/venezuela/re...

One of those rare times the President should trust his instincts

Rare MAGA on MAGA violence over Congressional control of defense policy www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...

My latest with Mike O'Hanlon on why a military campaign against Venezuela will likely fail: nationalinterest.org/feature/bomb...

Good development but need more details to know what it really means. Who can actually connect rapidly with whom here is a big deal.... www.militarytimes.com/news/pentago...

Does acting like an irrational maniac make Trump a more effective negotiator? In a word, no. My new @lawfaremedia.org piece with Samuel Seitz explains why. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...

History demonstrates why the administration’s approach of “strategic uncertainty” is unlikely to produce better deals, write Samuel Seitz and @proftalmadge.bsky.social. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-...

This is good. taskandpurpose.com/news/vet-gro...

I never knew Halloween could feel heavy, but it's hard to slap on a smile and gear up for a holiday about gorging on candy when millions of kids are about to lose SNAP benefits.

Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

As I was saying… 👇🏻

Trump continues to be both arsonist and fireman.

Wut. This is actually way more puzzling than Trump's tweet. 🤔 How on earth are we going to build ROK nuclear-powered subs in... *checks notes*... Philadelphia? If it were that easy we wouldn't be having so much difficulty building our own and the ones we owe Australia. www.ft.com/content/a6ee...

Congress pushing back against Hegseth attempts to restrict military communications with Congress, a bedrock of healthy civilian control of the military. 👏👏👏 www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...

Can't wait to read this!

FWIW it's not in US interest to normalize nuclear testing. We have the data we need from many earlier tests, but China doesn't, so China has the potential to gain much more than we do from resumption of testing. But I suspect POTUS was referencing testing *delivery vehicles* anyway-- not warheads.

1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong. 1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.

Signs mounting that U.S. plans to bomb Venezuela, ostensibly with the goal of toppling the regime. Unfortunately the track record of this kind of campaign is uniformly poor. A short thread. 1/8 www.wsj.com/world/americ...

Ensuring the future surface fleet can deter China is a great idea! Step 1: Stop sending the current fleet off on a fool's errand in the Caribbean. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Just a reminder that this 8th attack, just the first 7, is illegal: 1. Not self-defense 2. No (or any) Congressional authorization 3. No evidence of criminal wrongdoing 4. Int'l waters 5. No open state of hostility 6. Criminal groups are not terrorists legally 7. No id on people or group targeted

Excited to be speaking on defense strategy @brookings.edu next week, along with keynoters Rep. Adam Smith and Rep. Elissa Slotkin. Join us in person or online! www.brookings.edu/events/the-2...

Wild breach of US civil-military norms. Our Constitution divides control of the military between the executive and the legislature. Hard for Congress to exercise that control without information. But perhaps it will get Congress to wake up. breakingdefense.com/2025/10/pent...

Fantastic news

At least they realized a summit with Putin was a waste of time beforehand this time? I'm all for negotiating an end to the horrific Ukraine war, but there is a difference between negotiation vs. just agreeing to everything the aggressor wants and calling it peace. www.ft.com/content/49eb...

Thorough and fairly devastating run down of Hegseth's tenure thus far, featuring a surprising number of anonymous quotes from senior military officers www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/oc...

It's like they have complete amnesia about the 30 Years' War against Iraq. www.wsj.com/world/americ...

@poni.csis.org is now accepting applications for the 2026 Nuclear Scholars cohort! Just as this year, PONI is able offer a few spots to non-U.S. citizens for 2026. I have had the opportunity to participate this year and cannot recommend the program enough. Apply by November 17!

Unnecessary and dangerous. If we have so many extra 155mm artillery shells lying around that we can detonate them over our own highways for a Vance/Hegseth vanity project, maybe send them to Ukraine instead? www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/u...

China and Russia have to be laughing their heads off at this giant waste of U.S. military time and effort. Christmas will come early for them if the U.S. gets bogged down in a needless & pointless regime change operation in the western hemisphere. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/u...

Came across this gem reading Congressional testimony today

Most uplifting thing I’ve read all year and it might even be right www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/why-i-have...

Great piece from @jackieschneider.bsky.social explaining why Trump's decision to divert the military to internal missions in US cities will undermine military effectiveness, no matter how big the defense budget gets. on.ft.com/3L2jOD3