Delighted to have joined the Strategic Simplicity Podcast with @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, @fravel.bsky.social, Austin Long, and Vipin Narang to discuss China's nuclear strategy!

Sharp analysis here from @mpoznansky.bsky.social and Erik Sand, regarding what this summer's spectacular Israeli and Ukrainian drone strikes do-- and don't-- mean for U.S.

The Bike Will Always Get Through? Vivid example of how drones both constrict and create opportunities for movement on the battlefield. www.twz.com/news-feature...

"The White House tried to oust Buria, but struggled to find a replacement who wanted the job." www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

"The hour-long fight, which took place in darkness, involved some 110 aircraft, making it the world's largest air battle in decades.... Faulty intelligence gave the [Indian] Rafale pilots a false sense of confidence they were out of Pakistani firing distance." www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Probably the first time that idle shitposting has resulted in concrete changes to an adversary’s nuclear posture.

Hard to deter if you can't get to the fight: "If Nato’s tanks were called to respond to an invasion by Moscow’s forces across the EU’s eastern border, they would get stuck in tunnels, cause bridges to collapse and get snarled up in border protocols" www.ft.com/content/d77d...

Beyond issues with interceptor quantity, "U.S. ships had to head to port in the Med or the Red Sea after shooting all of their interceptors, because the Navy doesn’t yet have a reliable way to reload at sea." Significant implications here for conflict in Indo-Pacific www.wsj.com/world/israel...

Good discussion of US & China views on strategic stability. Would just note China need not worry about US damage limitation capability unless it plans to challenge the status quo by force, notably regarding Taiwan. Virtually only scenario where relevant. www.brookings.edu/articles/chi...

Absolutely horrific. Oh and "many of the migrants the administration removed had entered the United States legally and were complying with U.S. immigration rules." www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Must read. This is criminal conduct, full stop.

Wow, today is just filled with explosive news that is completely unsurprising.

Randy Schriver is spot on here regarding U.S. economic and defense policies in Asia working at cross-purposes www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...

Let's say the quiet part out loud: w/o French damage limitation capability vs Russia, which France is nowhere remotely close to achieving, promises to extend nuclear umbrella over Germany lack credibility. www.wsj.com/world/europe...

As this article correctly notes, Europe’s lack of strategic mobility is critical. No matter how many forces Europe builds, if it can’t move them to NATO’s eastern flank quickly enough, they won’t deter Russia effectively. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Fairly clear signal to Russia that Kaliningrad is not off limits in the event of an attack on NATO's eastern flank www.defensenews.com/land/2025/07...

More evidence that US efforts to coerce China in a Taiwan conflict by closing Straits of Malacca unlikely to be successful www.wsj.com/world/china/...

"The fact that, according to the USAF, Israel did this without the help of clandestine USAF tanking is remarkable." Yes, it really is. Further testament to sophistication of IAF operations against Iran. www.twz.com/air/u-s-deni...

Then: Epstein File is deep state conspiracy, Houthi attacks must be met with force, Zelenskyy is going to start WW 3, NATO is a scam Now: never mind

My new report from the Carnegie Endowment offers a framework for understanding how major power competition plays out within "swing" states - focused on South Asia but with applicability beyond - and a set of implications for contemporary US foreign policy: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

“I think he’s gonna get it together,” Trump said of Hegseth. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...

Important and overdue www.ft.com/content/4dcc...

It's almost like America needs an Indo-Pacific economic policy that's integrated with its overall grand strategy. www.ft.com/content/57e1...

I'm old enough to remember when Trump was lecturing Zelenskyy about gambling with World War III www.ft.com/content/b66f...

Eye-popping account of the Israeli effort to ready its Air Force for the Iran campaign, with quiet but vast help from other states. “The Air Force was rearmed over the past year with a decade’s worth of munitions and systems." www.ynetnews.com/magazine/art...

"The total size of the existing MOP inventory is classified, but Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said at a hearing before members of the Senate Appropriations Committee on June 26 that it is currently being expanded." www.twz.com/air/new-fuze...

Funny how that works: it is indeed hard for DOD to prepare for war in Indo-Pacific when White House keeps launching major operations (Houthis, Iran) in the Middle East. www.defensenews.com/pentagon/202...

Fantastic @financialtimes.com deep dive on defensive preparations by Finland, Norway, Poland, Baltic States. Great maps and diagrams for teaching: ig.ft.com/russia-easte...

Short new piece by me on what the Iran-Israel War means for the broader Middle East & Indo-Pacific, plus commentary from other @brookings.edu colleagues including @profsaunders.bsky.social

"Today looks eerily like Iraq in 1991. A militarised regime has survived, albeit in a weakened form. It can no longer project force, but it can still disrupt its neighbourhood. And its leaders still believe that regime change is the undeclared goal." ‪@emile-hokayem.bsky.social‬ on.ft.com/44C7SPD

"New satellite images show that work is underway at the Fordow underground facility" www.twz.com/news-feature...

It's unusual for the HHS Secretary to be the clear front-runner for most evil cabinet member.

What's really notable here is Hegseth appears to have played little substantive role in discussions about whether to launch Iran strike. Presidents have right to any advisors they want but *highly* unusual for SECDEF's main role to just be cheerleading on TV afterwards. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Rather remarkable in reflecting on Spider's Web and Rising Lion to realize that over the last year Ukraine and Israel were simultaneously concocting very similar drone campaigns on enemy territory, presumably totally independently. warontherocks.com/2025/06/why-...

Great piece. Israeli-Saudi rapprochement-- a major driver of Hamas decision to attack Oct 7-- was driven by common interest in countering Iran. Will that interest persist given the series of military defeats Iran has suffered at the hands of a largely unchecked Israel? www.wsj.com/world/middle...

More details on UK buy of nuclear-capable F-35As, including good explanation of NATO dual-key arrangements for gravity bombs, i.e., why Britain will face more constraints dropping these nukes from aircraft than it does with submarine-launched ballistic missiles www.twz.com/air/royal-ai...

Slightly belatedly sharing this H-Diplo roundtable honoring the contributions of the late Owen Cote. Contributions from Barry Posen, Steve Miller, Phil Haun, @fiona-cunningham.bsky.social, Lena Andrews, Austin Long, and myself. We miss Owen everyday. networks.h-net.org/group/discus...

Turns out at least one of "our boys" piloting the B-2s was a woman www.military.com/daily-news/2...

ICYMI, UK decides to acquire nuclear-armed F-35A. Britain's entire nuclear arsenal currently consists of Trident II missiles aboard 4 Vanguard SSBNs, maybe 1-2 of which at sea at any given time, so this is certainly a shift. www.ft.com/content/1b77...

ICYMI, UK decides to acquire nuclear-armed F-35A. Britain's entire nuclear arsenal currently consists of Trident II missiles aboard 4 Vanguard SSBNs, maybe 1-2 of which at sea at any given time, so this is certainly a shift. www.ft.com/content/1b77...

"The United States should not have to expand its overall existing stockpile of 3,800 or so warheads. But changing the composition of the arsenal will be crucial." Important piece from @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social & Vipin Narang @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Most interesting thing here is that up til now Chinese concerns about U.S. closure of **Malacca Strait** in a Taiwan war have apparently NOT motivated them to actively pursue expanded overland pipeline with Russia www.wsj.com/world/china-...

OBLITER-wait www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

"Netanyahu said that Iran’s nuclear program had now been set back two or three years." If only there had been a verifiable agreement in place to do that (and then some) without a war... 🤔 www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Key question on Iranian strikes: is damage significant enough that Trump decides to escalate further in response? Administration rhetoric over last few days doesn't leave a lot of wiggle to declare victory and walk away, even if damage limited. And that may be by design.

Wonder if Iran is privately telegraphing retaliation plans to limit damage and therefore escalation potential www.reuters.com/business/aer...

The day summer camp starts

Incredible story www.bostonglobe.com/2025/06/18/m...

In trying to assess Operation Midnight Hammer, useful to keep in mind distinction in international relations theory between brute force and coercion, which goes back to Thomas Schelling. 1/5 yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...

I spoke with @ichotiner.bsky.social from @newyorker.com about the consequences of the U.S. strikes on Iran. Here's my big concern in one paragraph... newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...