Immigrants to America are great. They enrich communities and make us stronger, safer, and more prosperous than society would be otherwise. Just saying this out loud because I’ve not seen much articulation of a positive case for immigration, lately, even as opposition to mass deportation grows.

Contradictions of late-stage MAGA www.wsj.com/us-news/gun-...

Oops, it turns out fascism is unpopular www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Do better. Call your buddy George W. Bush and show up together in Minneapolis. Don’t just write statements. DO something with your megaphone.

With the aid of chocolate I have brought myself to read the just-released National Defense Strategy. A few quick reactions: 1/7 media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...

Incredibly significant development in Chinese civil-military relations, one that I believe probably lowers the risk of near-term conflict over Taiwan. Xi unlikely to launch a war after hollowing out military leadership. www.wsj.com/world/china/...

A crazy(?) part of my brain thinks that the horrific events in Minnesota make a U.S. strike on Iran more likely. The relevant military assets are now assembled in the Middle East. Hope I am wrong, but Trump knows how to change the conversation.

Vetted organizations supporting the people of Minnesota-- worth a look if you are searching for ways to actually do something www.standwithminnesota.com

📣📣📣Announcing...Chalkboard Politics @chalkboardpolitics.bsky.social, a podcast by students, for students (and their teachers). Written, edited, and mixed by the students at @siwpscolumbia.bsky.social and distributed by @goodauth.bsky.social. 1/ www.podbean.com/media/share/...

Good luck with that www.wsj.com/world/middle...

"The Venezuelan military’s incompetence appears to have played a big role in the U.S. success.... Russia may have quietly allowed the military equipment it sold Venezuela to fall into disrepair, to avoid greater conflict with Washington." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/w...

Just trying to buckle down today and immerse myself in the blissful irrelevance of scholarly work as I look at archival evidence on **checks notes** US military responses to the Iranian Revolution 👀

Pleased to join @brookings.edu podcast The Current with @sranderson.bsky.social to discuss the implications of the Maduro raid. www.brookings.edu/articles/wha...

A busy day at @brookings.edu talking Venezuela. First, this phenomenal podcast conversation with @proftalmadge.bsky.social for The Current (recorded yesterday but just published): www.brookings.edu/articles/wha...

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."

Who could have foreseen that turning poorly trained, heavily armed, ideologically motivated goons loose on residential streets would result in US citizens getting murdered

It was only a matter of time. www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9CJ...

So the US killed five Venezuelan GENERALS in the Maduro raid. As one often does in standard "law enforcement" operations. www.bbc.com/news/article...

1/Quick thoughts on Venezuela oil and what it means for world politics. Rather than a simple story of corporate oligarchy, more about Trump putting himself at the center of spoils that can be used to consolidate power i.e neo-royalism. www.cnbc.com/2026/01/06/t...

Great deep dive here on Interior Minister Cabello and the threat he poses to Rodriguez's consolidation of power in Venezuela. “Delcy may have Donald Trump’s ear, but she doesn’t have the guns, and Cabello knows that.” Authoritarian politics 101 www.wsj.com/world/americ...

Nothing says "compact of free association" like a threat of invasion www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...

Well, this is fun. The US is chasing an EMPTY oil tanker around the Atlantic. It's like the entire Venezuela adventure in a nutshell. www.wsj.com/world/russia...

This should disabuse anyone of the notion that Trump cares about Venezuelan people or democracy. Key question: will remnants of Maduro regime remain cohesive & comply w/ US demands? Lots of potential for internal conflict (coups, civil war) & further US military escalation (assassinations/strikes).

Pleased to contribute a short piece for this @brookings.edu roundup on Venezuela, alongside experts like @proftalmadge.bsky.social. Mine is titled "A precedented intervention in unprecedented times." www.brookings.edu/articles/mak...

Serious question per some commentary earlier by @profsaunders.bsky.social: can anyone explain what it is that the US would want in Greenland that it can't currently get?

But that wouldn't make America look like a tough guy! It's almost like our leaders don't have coherent strategic rationales for doing things and are driven by deep insecurities and a thirst for performative violence.

Worth reading on why Trump is so hard to predict, and I largely agree. warontherocks.com/2026/01/trum...

So Trump threw Machado under the bus due to fear she couldn't get Venezuela's powerful defense & security forces under control. Key question is what happens if Rodriguez can't do this either. Reminder: these people were all hand-picked by Maduro. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Turns out oil companies have little interest in investing in Venezuela given that Maduro's entire political apparatus is still in charge of the country. Oops. www.wsj.com/business/ene...

"Military intervention without a clear path to strategic and political success" www.brookings.edu/articles/mak...

🧵Day 3 and we have a new meaning for "running Venezuela," courtesy of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, who is in charge of Venezuela as well as the National Archives. We're going to insist they do what's in the US national interest. Time for some principal-agent theory. 1/

US seems to have no plan to deal w/ powerful Venezuelan security forces, who can threaten/thwart political leaders if they comply w/ US demands. Authoritarian politics 101 & major reason US approach could lead to military escalation and/or civil conflict. www.wsj.com/world/americ...

Intervention in Venezuela epitomizes U.S. way of war since 9/11: stunningly effective at the tactical and operational levels, dangerously divorced from the achievement of strategic and political outcomes that actually make U.S. more secure.

Trump seems to harbor belief that Venezuela intervention will deter challenges to US elsewhere. If US gets bogged down in a needless Latin American military campaign, the opposite is more likely.

Unless Venezuela is politically & economically stable, v unlikely oil companies come rushing back in. Trump can try to strong arm them, & regime leaders, to do his bidding, but what happens when both private & govt actors don't comply with his vision of a South American Valhalla? Endless escalation?

This is a good moment to step back & remember that U.S. military intervention in Venezuela was 100% elective. This is what you see next to "war of choice" in the dictionary. Not forced on U.S. in any way by any pressing issue or imminent/actual attack. Just something POTUS felt like doing.

“Even if a regime change operation succeeds at first, history again shows that long-term outcomes are often disappointing,” write Alexander Downes and Lindsey O’Rourke.

This makes the Iraq War seem well planned.

Fun fact, there’s a difference between leadership decapitation & actual regime change. With the former you capture/kill someone and it takes hours. With the latter you undo and redo all the civil and military institutions they built. It takes years and ground forces.

You can simultaneously: - hate the scourge of drugs - be shedding zero tears for Maduro And still think this is a really bad idea.

The US is going to “run” Venezuela? How? It is a country of 30M people, comparable to Iraqi population in 2003, and the one thing Trump hasn’t done is build up large-scale ground forces in the region needed for occupation.

Anyone who says they know what happens next is lying. But Trump has made the range of outcomes huge. There's no process, no checks to produce course corrections, far less capacity to implement corrections, no experienced civilians in charge. /8 @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...

Excellent article on China's expanding nuclear ambitions. Lots of evidence beyond silo construction. wapo.st/49lkL22

I strongly support reviving the bilateral arms control process. Nuclear danger is a thing! But the changing legal status of Rubezh/Oreshnik shows what Putin is offering at the moment is a sham: the appearance of arms control, rather than the real thing.

China is undergoing major changes in how it thinks about nuclear weapons, as indicated in the just released China Military Power Report. 2 developments stand out. media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...

Been wondering about this for a year. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/w...

Battleships are just big targets in a war with another great power. If we have money to throw around we should be building more attack submarines, which are dramatically more survivable in all the scenarios that matter. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/u...

Sobering analysis: "The reality of a possible U.S.-Venezuelan confrontation is that while Venezuela cannot win a conventional war, it can make a U.S. intervention a costly, uncertain, and politically explosive gamble." warontherocks.com/2025/12/weak...

Please consider donating to the Go Fund Me set up to support the family of Nuno Loureiro, the MIT professor horrifically slain in his home earlier this week. He leaves behind a wife and three young daughters. Link here: gofund.me/d9681940c