I'll join @ForeignPolicy's @RaviReports on Mon to discuss the one-month record of the Iran War and the path ahead. foreignpolicy.com/live/ali-vae...

Told @Politico that the Trump administration has been exchanging messages indirectly with Iran through the governments of Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

Told @WSJ: @araghchi has always been an implementer. Not somebody who was used to shaping policy.

Told @FT: When it comes to the Strait, these are less ad hoc reactions than longstanding playbooks Tehran has kept on the shelf for roughly 40 years.  giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

I told @amanpour that the Iranian leadership is nowhere near the brink of collapse. www.cnn.com/2026/03/19/t...

Spoke to @USATODAY about the complex history between the U.S. and Iran. www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...

Is the U.S. repeating a century-old mistake in Iran? I told @ezraklein @nytimes that Western-backed “short-term gains” often lead to unintended consequences.

“🇺🇸has not thought this through. It’s not aware of the long tail of events, about how short-term victories, even if they are achievable — & at this point in the conflict, I’m not even sure of that — sometimes come back to haunt you down the road.” @alivaez.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/o...

It was a pleasure joining @ezraklein to explain how Trump plunged into war with Iran as if firepower were enough, forgetting the oldest rule of conflict: half the battle is knowing your enemy.  www.nytimes.com/2026/03/14/o...

Told @Reuters: The U.S. had entered the war unprepared, driven by a lot of wishful thinking and not a lot of well-thought-through strategies. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Told @Telegraph: I think Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was the last supreme leader of Iran. If Mojtaba survives, he is not going to be in the same commanding position. The leader is no longer supreme. It is the Revolutionary Guards who are running the show. www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

“Yet in the rubble of war, the IRGC, the very institution most isolated from the international order may prove the most capable of inheriting the state”. My essay for ⁦‪@nytimes‬⁩ www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

“This is Israel’s ultimate objective [in Iran].’ Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director Ali Vaez joined @mehdirhasan.bsky.social to discuss Trump arming Kurdish separatist groups to destabilize Iran and the very real threat of state collapse that Israel wants. zeteo.com/p/ali-vaez-t...

Told @TIME: “Even in scenarios where we had, like in Iraq or Afghanistan, some degree of planning for the day after, it ended in grief. This time around, it is really based on wishful thinking.” time.com/7382697/trum...

Spoke with @TheWorld Host @carolynbeeler about how and why the Iran war is expanding. theworld.org/segments/202...

U.S-Israeli tactical wins do not guarantee strategic clarity. The deeper risk in this campaign lies in the assumptions that animate it – assumptions about how Iran behaves under pressure, and what pressure produces. Mt new piece for @guardian: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

I told @AFP: "Given that most opposition groups lack meaningful networks or operational capacity inside Iran, it is hardly surprising that Trump appears to treat elements within the existing power structure as more consequential actors than their exiled rivals." www.france24.com/en/live-news...

I told @golnarM @Bloomberg: “If Iran calibrates its retaliation carefully, and if it can maintain elite cohesion at home, it may be able to outlast the immediate storm. Survival, not victory, is the strategic objective.”

I told @washingtonpost: "The Islamic republic is never going to be the same. Iran as a country that can determine the trajectory of the region is no longer." www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

I told @golnarM @Bloomberg: “Tehran’s bet appears to rest on a familiar asymmetry: its conviction that it can absorb more pain, for longer, than the US and its partners are willing to tolerate." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I joined @AnaCabrera on @MSNOWNews to discuss Iran's nuclear materials. www.ms.now/ana-cabrera-...

Watch Iran War: Trump Pledges Safe Mideast Oil Transit & Threatens Spain | Daybreak Europe 3/4/2026 - Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

Told @RFERL: By empowering the IRGC, Khamanei militarized the country’s politics and by co-opting the clerical establishment, he delegitimized it. www.rferl.org/amp/khamenei...

US AND ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN; TEHRAN FIRES BACK, EXPLOSIONS ACROSS REGION aje.news/p4rw7y?updat...

US-Iran talks in Geneva, latest Trump administration news | CNN edition.cnn.com/us/live-news...

Told @AFP: Larijani is a true insider, a canny operator, familiar with how the system operates and familiar with the supreme leader's inclinations. www.barrons.com/news/the-vet...

NEW STATEMENT | The U.S. and Iran Can Still Avoid a War Both have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to averting war exists, but time is of the essence. www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-e...

Told @NYTimes: The Iranians don’t believe that once they capitulate, the U.S. will alleviate the pressure. They believe that would only encourage the U.S. to go for the jugular.

President Trump says Iran’s supreme leader “should be very worried now.” -NBC News

“Trump likes low-cost, high-impact operations. On Iran, he could do high impact, but not at a low cost. That’s why he has been hesitating.” @alivaez.bsky.social tells the NTY www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/w...

NEW STATEMENT | Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within Iran is experiencing nationwide upheaval, and the state has responded with brute force. U.S. threats of military intervention create additional dangers. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

NEW UPDATE | On Our Radar 🔴 Demonstrations in Iran have grown into nationwide anti-regime unrest. 🔴 Lebanon says it has passed a milestone in disarming Hizbollah. 🔴 Provisional results for CAR are out after the general elections. www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...

“At least having their own streets under their control is what they see as essential for their own survival, even if it invites a US strike.” @alivaez.bsky.social speaking with @cnn.com on protests in Iran. edition.cnn.com/2026/01/11/m...

🇮🇷 Failing to implement environmentally sound policies will only deepen the crisis, further imperilling both Baluchestan’s fragile ecosystems and its already vulnerable communities. Our latest report explains why: www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

📈 Rising temperatures, sporadic rainfall, over-extraction and poor planning have converged to make water scarcity a major crisis in Sistan and #Baluchestan – and an increasingly pressing concern across #Iran.

🇮🇷 #Baluchestan has been plagued by neglect and a sense of exclusion and growing grievances have at times manifested in unrest and militancy. Growing water scarcity could deepen public discontent in Iran’s semi-arid region.

NEW OP-ED | How a Historic Israel-Iran Non-aggression Pact Could Change the Middle East The only sustainable solution is a diplomatic one. Donald Trump should seal the deal. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

"A dash toward nuclear weapons in a secret facility is still something that Iran can do. It has the knowledge, the material, and the equipment needed. And without inspections, the world will be blinded to that possibility." More from @crisisgroup.org's Ali Vaez: ip-quarterly.com/en/iran-down...

NEW STATEMENT | How Trump and Tehran Can Find an Exit from an Escalating War As Israel pummels Iran, the U.S. is weighing direct involvement. Washington should look to diplomacy, while Tehran should offer meaningful incentives for it to do so. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Friday, May 16, 11 AM ET: Join us for a timely conversation with @alivaez.bsky.social, Iran Program Director at @crisisgroup.org, and DAWN's @sarahleah1.bsky.social, on the shifting dynamics of nuclear policy in the Middle East on the heels of Trump's trip. On X Spaces: twitter.com/i/spaces/1Zk...

Wow. Will be looking for US follow through due to possibility of some in the administration seeking to slow roll this. Erdogan and MBS seemed to have played key roles. wapo.st/43aWW9R

Astonishing news on Trump’s lifting of Syria sanctions. Much still depends on follow through and implementation and there is a Congressional piece as well, but I would never have predicted this; I’m sure some members of his administration feel the same.

@richardgowan1.bsky.social examines how the Trump administration’s approach could make or break UN reforms in @wpr.bsky.social. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trump-united...

This week, the Trump administration issued NSPM-2, laying out the economic and diplomatic tools of a renewed "Maximum Pressure" campaign, while POTUS @realDonaldTrump called for a "Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement" with Iran.  🧵 on reading the early tea leaves.

Told @WSJ: There is no Axis without access. t.co/KEVwRwqr5i

Told @NYTimes: The fall of Assad puts an exclamation point on the fact that decades of Iranian strategy and investment in the Levant have come undone in a matter of weeks. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/w...

Man, history has a sense of irony. Hamas initially supported the Syrian revolution, but Yahya Sinwar came along and played a key role in reconciling the group with the Assad regime, only for Sinwar to then trigger a chain of dominoes that led to the Assad regime losing Aleppo