Told @NBCNews that after a war, a leadership transition, and the lingering trauma of a brutally suppressed uprising, the Islamic Republic enters a period of profound uncertainty. nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...

Told @CBSNews: There is an inverse correlation between Iran's ability to secure sanctions relief and its desire to look at the strait as a source of revenue.

Told @NYtimes: Control over the Strait of Hormuz is critical leverage that Iran doesn’t want to see eroded before they have a final deal. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/28/w...

Told @CNN: Ghalibaf has finally arrived at a position of immense influence by a process of elimination. He sought the presidency several times but was eclipsed by rivals whom the war has since swept from the stage. edition.cnn.com/2026/03/24/w...

Told @washingtonpost: The Iranians view Trump as unreliable and erratic. That’s why the MOU is a proof of concept on whether negotiating a more comprehensive agreement with the U.S. is even possible. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

Told @NYT: Iran has the capacity and maybe even more incentive now to develop nuclear weapons, because it provides the ultimate deterrence against the kinds of attacks Iran has suffered for the last two years. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/18/w...

Trump says that Iran "has to have" ballistic missiles, adding "what am I going to do? Am I going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles but they can't have them?"

Told @FT that the US-Iran MoU can break a lose-lose dynamic, but without concessions on the nuclear program, relief for Tehran is little more than a painkiller for a system facing deep economic & political challenges.

Told @guardian: Iran’s water crisis has left it with virtually no margin for error. Further disruptions could prove catastrophic for the population. But Tehran is more likely to endure a deepening thirst at home than satisfy Trump’s thirst for a political victory. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

TRUMP: We're gonna be attacking Iran, and attacking them very hard. REPORTER: Resuming bombing? TRUMP: Yeah. We are.

Told @WSJ: Iran has left Washington trying to separate two fronts whose key triggers remain outside the U.S.-Iran channel: Israel’s asserted freedom of action in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s refusal to stand down. The war has certainly made Iran less, not more, risk averse. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Spoke to @Freedland @guardian about why Trump keeps changing his mind on what to do to end the war. www.theguardian.com/politics/aud...

Spoke to @NPRinskeep about the Trump administration's latest efforts to end the war with Iran. www.npr.org/2026/05/29/n...

Will he? Won't he? Why does Trump do anything? Jonathan and @alivaez.bsky.social look at the prospect of the US-Israel war on Iran ending any time soon.

Told @NPR that the deal between Iran and the U.S. can stop the bleeding, but won't heal the wound. www.npr.org/2026/05/25/n...

DC's Iran hawks got two wars, nearly every conceivable sanction designation, a blockade, threw a wrench in global economy and will still claim that just a little more pressure and a touch more bombing will magically yield the concessions they still won't be satisfied with.

Told @Reuters: Neither side has shown willingness to make the painful concessions needed for a deal. Both believe time is on their side and they have the upper hand, and that perception is precisely what is making a deal impossible. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Fox News: "President Trump just spoke to our John Roberts a moment ago. He says he is now considering renewing Project Freedom, but he says this time around the US guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz would be just one small piece of a larger military operation."

Told @AJEnglish: No amount of economic coercion or military force will compel Iran to capitulate to maximalist US demands. Trump is therefore left with two bad options: escalate a war he cannot win, or accept a compromise he cannot sell. www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/...

Told @lemondefr: The only thing Project Freedom will succeed in doing is collapsing the ceasefire. www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...

Told @NYtimes: At every point when pressure hasn’t delivered the intended result, Trump sought a new tool of coercion which he believed would magically conjure victory, but pressure without an open door is an exercise in futility. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/w...

Told @NikkeiAsia: Iran appears to be using alternative export routes such as rail transport via Afghanistan, but that capacity is insufficient. The blockade is clearly putting pressure on Iran. asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/ir...

Told @abcnews: The Iranian calculus is that the time pressure on them is measured in months, whereas for the United States, it is measured in weeks. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05...

Told @NYT: Many IRGC affiliated voices are now openly saying that the failure of Iran has been that it was too shy about aligning itself with China & Russia. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/u...

Told @The_NewArab: Rather than establishing a stable equilibrium, this ‘No War, No Peace’ limbo is best described as escalation management with live ammunition. www.newarab.com/analysis/no-...

Told @MSNOW: This is not a contest in which one side must blink first; the challenge is to choreograph a simultaneous blink by both sides. www.ms.now/news/two-mon...

Told @Newsweek: Moscow would play an important role in any solution for the Strait of Hormuz that would require international recognition. www.newsweek.com/iran-heads-t...

Told @CNN: President Trump seems to believe that the US blockade on Iran is working and will bring Iran to its knees in the coming days, if not weeks, and therefore he can finally get Iran to surrender to his terms. edition.cnn.com/2026/04/28/w...

Told @WSJ: This cease-fire is inherently unstable. At sea, neither side is deescalating so much as testing the limits of coercion. As long as the double blockade stays in place, every interdiction, warning shot or ship seizure could trigger conflict. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Told @NYT: “Mojtaba is not supreme; he might be leader in name, but he is not supreme the way his father was. He is subservient to the Revolutionary Guards because he owes his position and he owes the survival of the system to them.” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/w...

Both Russia and China are keen to exploit the Iran war to sap U.S. power, gain intelligence on U.S. military systems, and erode the U.S.-led order. And so far, both countries are succeeding. Read my latest with @CSIS’ Jon Alterman. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Told @NYT: The Iranians measure the timeline in months for themselves, and in weeks for the Trump administration and the global economy. They think Trump can’t tolerate the strait remaining closed for another few weeks. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/22/w...

Told @FT: Pakistan’s whole-of-the-system approach to mediation helps with creating consensus in Iran, but their inexperience means they rarely come up with creative ideas and their close ties to Iran’s adversaries makes Tehran suspicious. www.ft.com/content/eb22...

Told @WSJ: The mixed messaging from Tehran on the status of the Strait is more a reflection of a truly incongruous U.S. stance than infighting in Tehran. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Tracking US-Iran talks for better part of two decades: Breakthroughs aren't irreversible, stalemates aren't unbreakable, each side thinks it's reasonable and the other isn't, nothing is agreed until everything agreed, and if you get that far you still need implementation.

Told @WSJ: They Iranians drive a hard bargain but often fail at demonstrating flexibility when they must. And that results in squandering more opportunities than gaining ground in negotiations. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Spoke to @carolynbeeler - @theworld about the fragile two-week ceasefire brokered between the US and Iran. theworld.org/segments/202...

Spoke to @France24_en about the reconfiguration of power within Iran. www.france24.com/en/pakistani...

Told @nytimes: Tehran was now likely to double down on its support for Hezbollah, long a central pillar of its regional strategy, making a quick end to the fighting in Lebanon unlikely. This is a game of endurance. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/w...

Told @CNN: Given the degree of regime paranoia, the repression is going to be much harsher than was the case in the past. This is a wounded regime, and if it survives, it is not going to give an inch to its population, at least not anytime soon. edition.cnn.com/2026/04/03/m...

Told @ABC: Trump has lost control of events in Iran. abcnews.com/video/131747...

Told @Reuters: Tehran understands its ability to drive world energy markets through its chokehold on the strait is much more potent than even a nuclear weapon. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

As the #Iran war stretches into a second month, a campaign that may have started with hopes of quick and decisive wins now leaves the U.S. has three options: Escalation, degradation, and negotiation. My latest for @nytopinion 👇 tinyurl.com/hexfnyje

Dans @lemondefr: Avec Khamenei, on a aussi tué la fatwa contre l’arme nucléaire. www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

Told @nytimes that the regime has been turning out its supporters in public squares throughout the country. Those crowds are actually growing bigger and bigger. Many Iranians who dislike their rulers have come to oppose the war. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/o...

Told @WSJ: “The question at the heart of this war was never whether Iran could be wounded. It was whether coercion would produce capitulation. It hasn’t.” www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

It was a pleasure to join @RaviReports to discuss Iran's evolving war strategy and the Islamic Republic's internal dynamics. foreignpolicy.com/live/ali-vae...

Spoke to @FRANCE24 about how military escalation risks triggering systemic regional and global consequences, while diplomatic pathways remain constrained by deep mistrust, asymmetrical expectations, and the absence of credible guarantees. www.france24.com/en/as-us-pur...

The US & Israel hold escalation dominance in the Iran war. But Tehran seeks to shift a contest of firepower into test of endurance, wearing out defenses, raising costs & leveraging geography into bargaining power. W/ @ProfessorPape in @ForeignPolicy 👇 tinyurl.com/2tkbk4kp

Told @WSJ: That system [of patronage] will make it very hard to convince those who profit from it to turn against the regime. Millions of people get benefits from their loyalty to the regime. They don’t want to lose them. www.wsj.com/world/middle...