My latest @financialtimes.com on the perils of believing a Russian war with Europe is becoming inevitable giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Excellent op-ed from @hannanotte.bsky.social on how Europe "risks a self-fulfilling prophecy over the threat from Russia." A good balance of addressing "adversarial relations with Russia" as "a fixture of the European security landscape" while stressing the dangers of post-2022 "overcorrection."

Europe risks a self-fulfilling prophecy over the threat from Russia ft.trib.al/5nekh4L | opinion

My latest @financialtimes.com on the perils of believing a Russian war with Europe is becoming inevitable giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

The EU yesterday decided to sanction Russian foreign policy analysts Fyodor Lukyanov, Dmitry Suslov, and Andrei Sushentsov as part of its new sanctions package, according to media reports. www.rferl.org/a/eu-blackli...

1 year ago today, Syria's Assad fell. I spoke with @meduza.io about why and how Russia has managed to preserve its military bases in the country, the extent of Russian influence over the new Syria, and more. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

It has a cover! WE SHALL OUTLAST THEM tells the story of how Russia has reinvented itself on the global stage since February 2022—to try to outlast the West in a struggle over Ukraine and over global order: wwnorton.com/books/978132... 🧵 /1

It has a cover! WE SHALL OUTLAST THEM tells the story of how Russia has reinvented itself on the global stage since February 2022—to try to outlast the West in a struggle over Ukraine and over global order: wwnorton.com/books/978132... 🧵 /1

The Kennan Institute is back! So thrilled for Michael Kimmage & honoured to join as an associate fellow, alongside much esteemed colleagues like Karl Schloegel, Andrew Monaghan, Jim Goldgeier, Linda Kinstler, @stevenerlanger.bsky.social @kirland.bsky.social & others www.kennaninstitute.org/about

Even if Russia succeeds in maintaining its military presence in Syria, it is unlikely to play a significant role in shaping the country’s future, writes @hannanotte.bsky.social.

#Russia has resumed military flights to its Hmeimim airbase in Syria, @bloomberg.com reports. This comes two weeks after al-Shara's first visit to Moscow. I wrote about Russia's enduring role in post-Assad Syria not long ago in @foreignaffairs.com: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russi...

In a first reaction to #Trump's musings about #nuclear testing, Dmitry Peskov explains to the US president that the recent #Burevestnik test did not constitute a nuclear (explosive) test The Russians seem just as confused by Trump's post as everyone else tass.ru/politika/254...

Trump announced the US' resumption of #nuclear tests. How might #Russia react? 🧵

Trump announced the US' resumption of #nuclear tests. How might #Russia react? 🧵

In a remarkable first, Syria's new leader Al-Shara is in Moscow today to meet Putin Though Russia had to postpone its Russia-Arab summit due to the Gaza ceasefire, Al-Shara still went to Moscow In a recent @foreignaffairs.com essay I discuss how & why Russia retained influence in post-Assad Syria

When asked why Russia isn't represented at the Sharm El Sheik peace summit, Lavrov says Russia doesn't "impose its mediation services" on anyone The Russia-Arab summit planned for Wedn also had to be postponed Not since intervening in Syria in 2015 has Russia been so sidelined in Mideast diplomacy

10 years ago this week, Russia intervened in Syria to save Assad. His ouster last December dealt a serious blow to Putin. But Russia is not done in Syria. It's turning adversity into opportunity. My essay in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russi...

Even if Russia succeeds in maintaining its military presence in Syria, it is unlikely to play a significant role in shaping the country’s future, writes Hanna Notte.

10 years ago this week, Russia intervened in Syria to save Assad. His ouster last December dealt a serious blow to Putin. But Russia is not done in Syria. It's turning adversity into opportunity. My essay in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russi...

In my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social I look at what Africa Corps is up to and what its activities suggest about Russia‘s long-term strategy in the Sahel and beyond warontherocks.com/2025/09/russ...

What began as a Wagner replacement is turning into something much larger.

After Ukraine, Moscow may turn its attention south. Africa Corps is already paving the way.

In my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social I look at what Africa Corps is up to and what its activities suggest about Russia‘s long-term strategy in the Sahel and beyond warontherocks.com/2025/09/russ...

This week in the newsletter: @hannanotte.bsky.social on Russian foreign policy. What does Putin want? We discuss China, North Korea, Iran and Trump. thehundred.substack.com/p/interview-...

"Die Ukraine ist in Putins Mär Dreh- und Angelpunkt eines angeblichen Systemkampfes," schreibe ich in einem Essay für @zeit.de

Klein beigegeben ist für Putin im Krieg gegen die Ukraine keine Option. Auch, weil er Russlands gesamte außenpolitische Bestimmung von seinem Ausgang abhängig gemacht hat. Ein etwas anderer Blick auf Russlands Krieg in meinem @zeitonline.bsky.social Essay www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...

"Die Ukraine ist in Putins Mär Dreh- und Angelpunkt eines angeblichen Systemkampfes," schreibe ich in einem Essay für @zeit.de

Klein beigegeben ist für Putin im Krieg gegen die Ukraine keine Option. Auch, weil er Russlands gesamte außenpolitische Bestimmung von seinem Ausgang abhängig gemacht hat. Ein etwas anderer Blick auf Russlands Krieg in meinem @zeitonline.bsky.social Essay www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...

After all the hype re: Alaska & Washington diplomacy, the fundamentals are unchanged: Putin won't revise his aims. Ukraine & Europe will resist. The war remains Russia's strategic cul de sac & limits its throw-weight elsewhere, as I argued in @nytopinion.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

“Mr. Putin has long insisted that Ukraine will be his,” Hanna Notte writes. “But in a world shaped by Mr. Trump’s mercurial temperament and might-is-right principles, his obsession may cost Russia more than he has bargained for.”

Putin "won", played Trump in #Alaska? Fact is, despite the summit hype/optics, the Ukraine war remains a strategic cul de sac for Russia Putin will it keep going - but he'll make Russia ill-prepared for an increasingly unruly Trumpian world, as I write: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

Putin "won", played Trump in #Alaska? Fact is, despite the summit hype/optics, the Ukraine war remains a strategic cul de sac for Russia Putin will it keep going - but he'll make Russia ill-prepared for an increasingly unruly Trumpian world, as I write: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

✍️ "Putin Should Be Careful What He Wishes For," writes @hannanotte.bsky.social in her new piece in @nytimes.com. Don't miss her full essay below––outlining why the stakes of today's #TrumpPutinSummit may be higher for Russia than meets the eye: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

No, a world shaped by Trump’s mercurial temperament & might-is-right principles actually isn’t good for Putin - for as long as he indulges his illusion of total victory in Ukraine. The Alaska summit won't change that. My essay in @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

No, a world shaped by Trump’s mercurial temperament & might-is-right principles actually isn’t good for Putin - for as long as he indulges his illusion of total victory in Ukraine. The Alaska summit won't change that. My essay in @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

Fascinating reporting on Russia's efforts to preserve influence in post-Assad Syria, including: -dangling prospect of defense cooperation -intensified mil. activities in northeast and contacts with SDF -contacts with remnants of old regime (for leverage) (in Arabic) www.majalla.com/node/326725/...

The always insightful @hannanotte.bsky.social joined me on this season's last episode of @crisisgroup.org's War & Peace podcast to discuss how Russia's role in the Middle East is & is not changing: A great ep, from implications of Iran & Syria events to the vagaries of Russian-Israeli relations.

Last week, on the anniversary of the Trinity Test, I was fortunate to join Nobel Laureates and colleagues from the nuclear expert community in Chicago. Our declaration to reduce the risk of nuclear war by implementing 13 achievable recommendations: nobelassembly.org/declaration/

My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991. In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...

After research trips to over a dozen countries and many months of writing, I just sent off the finished manuscript for: WE SHALL OUTLAST THEM Putin's Global Campaign to Defeat the West Out with W. W. Norton in 2026

In conversation on ABC Australia's "Saturday Extra" radio show to discuss what the Israel-Iran war meant for Russia. www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

A pleasure to join @csis.org colleagues @maxbergmann.bsky.social & @msnegovaya.bsky.social for the Russian Roulette podcast This week on what the recent #Israel-#Iran war (& ongoing tensions surrounding Iran) mean for #Russia - both in the Middle East & more broadly www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...

In this week’s episode of Russian Roulette, @maxbergmann.bsky.social and I speak with the always insightful @hannanotte.bsky.social about how the recent war between Iran and Israel, along with U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, are shaping Russia’s strategy in the Middle East. Tune in today!

My latest column @financialtimes.com #Russia doesn't need #Iran’s help to sustain the war in #Ukraine. Iran’s humiliation and weakening don’t please Russia -- but domestic drone production and new alliances mean Putin can fight on. on.ft.com/4l5O3GA

Russia no longer needs Iran’s help to sustain the war in Ukraine https://on.ft.com/44huVy6 | opinion

My latest column @financialtimes.com #Russia doesn't need #Iran’s help to sustain the war in #Ukraine. Iran’s humiliation and weakening don’t please Russia -- but domestic drone production and new alliances mean Putin can fight on. on.ft.com/4l5O3GA

As a precarious Israel-Iran ceasefire takes hold & concerns shift to what's left of #Iran's nuclear program & HEU, #Russia rejects Western pressure on #Iran to now immediately provide access to #IAEA inspectors to its nuclear facilities, so they can verify where its HEU is. 🧵

Join our next #MorningBriefing on Thursday! Together w/ @joerglau.bsky.social, @hannanotte.bsky.social & András Rácz, @stoeckmannjan.bsky.social will unpack the geopolitical implications of the conflict in the Middle East, focusing especially on 🇮🇷-🇷🇺 relations & 🇷🇺’s war against 🇺🇦. buff.ly/ZJ4nZor

The very first reactions from #Russia to the US bombing #Iran #nuclear facilities can be summed up as: “Thank God we have nuclear weapons” This event will likely propel Russia's efforts to further strengthen its own nuclear coercive credibility for deterrence and compellence

Worth looking at #Putin remarks about #Russia and #Israel-#Iran at #SPIEF2025 in full - they reveal a lot about his current thinking: -He says that "those who promote ... narratives about Russia's unreliability as an ally are provocateurs" 🧵