In my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social I look at what Africa Corps is up to and what its activities suggest about Russia‘s long-term strategy in the Sahel and beyond warontherocks.com/2025/09/russ...

What began as a Wagner replacement is turning into something much larger.

After Ukraine, Moscow may turn its attention south. Africa Corps is already paving the way.

In my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social I look at what Africa Corps is up to and what its activities suggest about Russia‘s long-term strategy in the Sahel and beyond warontherocks.com/2025/09/russ...

This week in the newsletter: @hannanotte.bsky.social on Russian foreign policy. What does Putin want? We discuss China, North Korea, Iran and Trump. thehundred.substack.com/p/interview-...

"Die Ukraine ist in Putins Mär Dreh- und Angelpunkt eines angeblichen Systemkampfes," schreibe ich in einem Essay für @zeit.de

Klein beigegeben ist für Putin im Krieg gegen die Ukraine keine Option. Auch, weil er Russlands gesamte außenpolitische Bestimmung von seinem Ausgang abhängig gemacht hat. Ein etwas anderer Blick auf Russlands Krieg in meinem @zeitonline.bsky.social Essay www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...

"Die Ukraine ist in Putins Mär Dreh- und Angelpunkt eines angeblichen Systemkampfes," schreibe ich in einem Essay für @zeit.de

Klein beigegeben ist für Putin im Krieg gegen die Ukraine keine Option. Auch, weil er Russlands gesamte außenpolitische Bestimmung von seinem Ausgang abhängig gemacht hat. Ein etwas anderer Blick auf Russlands Krieg in meinem @zeitonline.bsky.social Essay www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...

After all the hype re: Alaska & Washington diplomacy, the fundamentals are unchanged: Putin won't revise his aims. Ukraine & Europe will resist. The war remains Russia's strategic cul de sac & limits its throw-weight elsewhere, as I argued in @nytopinion.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

“Mr. Putin has long insisted that Ukraine will be his,” Hanna Notte writes. “But in a world shaped by Mr. Trump’s mercurial temperament and might-is-right principles, his obsession may cost Russia more than he has bargained for.”

Putin "won", played Trump in #Alaska? Fact is, despite the summit hype/optics, the Ukraine war remains a strategic cul de sac for Russia Putin will it keep going - but he'll make Russia ill-prepared for an increasingly unruly Trumpian world, as I write: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

Putin "won", played Trump in #Alaska? Fact is, despite the summit hype/optics, the Ukraine war remains a strategic cul de sac for Russia Putin will it keep going - but he'll make Russia ill-prepared for an increasingly unruly Trumpian world, as I write: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

✍️ "Putin Should Be Careful What He Wishes For," writes @hannanotte.bsky.social in her new piece in @nytimes.com. Don't miss her full essay below––outlining why the stakes of today's #TrumpPutinSummit may be higher for Russia than meets the eye: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

No, a world shaped by Trump’s mercurial temperament & might-is-right principles actually isn’t good for Putin - for as long as he indulges his illusion of total victory in Ukraine. The Alaska summit won't change that. My essay in @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

No, a world shaped by Trump’s mercurial temperament & might-is-right principles actually isn’t good for Putin - for as long as he indulges his illusion of total victory in Ukraine. The Alaska summit won't change that. My essay in @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

Fascinating reporting on Russia's efforts to preserve influence in post-Assad Syria, including: -dangling prospect of defense cooperation -intensified mil. activities in northeast and contacts with SDF -contacts with remnants of old regime (for leverage) (in Arabic) www.majalla.com/node/326725/...

The always insightful @hannanotte.bsky.social joined me on this season's last episode of @crisisgroup.org's War & Peace podcast to discuss how Russia's role in the Middle East is & is not changing: A great ep, from implications of Iran & Syria events to the vagaries of Russian-Israeli relations.

Last week, on the anniversary of the Trinity Test, I was fortunate to join Nobel Laureates and colleagues from the nuclear expert community in Chicago. Our declaration to reduce the risk of nuclear war by implementing 13 achievable recommendations: nobelassembly.org/declaration/

My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991. In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...

After research trips to over a dozen countries and many months of writing, I just sent off the finished manuscript for: WE SHALL OUTLAST THEM Putin's Global Campaign to Defeat the West Out with W. W. Norton in 2026

In conversation on ABC Australia's "Saturday Extra" radio show to discuss what the Israel-Iran war meant for Russia. www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

A pleasure to join @csis.org colleagues @maxbergmann.bsky.social & @msnegovaya.bsky.social for the Russian Roulette podcast This week on what the recent #Israel-#Iran war (& ongoing tensions surrounding Iran) mean for #Russia - both in the Middle East & more broadly www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...

In this week’s episode of Russian Roulette, @maxbergmann.bsky.social and I speak with the always insightful @hannanotte.bsky.social about how the recent war between Iran and Israel, along with U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, are shaping Russia’s strategy in the Middle East. Tune in today!

My latest column @financialtimes.com #Russia doesn't need #Iran’s help to sustain the war in #Ukraine. Iran’s humiliation and weakening don’t please Russia -- but domestic drone production and new alliances mean Putin can fight on. on.ft.com/4l5O3GA

Russia no longer needs Iran’s help to sustain the war in Ukraine https://on.ft.com/44huVy6 | opinion

My latest column @financialtimes.com #Russia doesn't need #Iran’s help to sustain the war in #Ukraine. Iran’s humiliation and weakening don’t please Russia -- but domestic drone production and new alliances mean Putin can fight on. on.ft.com/4l5O3GA

As a precarious Israel-Iran ceasefire takes hold & concerns shift to what's left of #Iran's nuclear program & HEU, #Russia rejects Western pressure on #Iran to now immediately provide access to #IAEA inspectors to its nuclear facilities, so they can verify where its HEU is. 🧵

Join our next #MorningBriefing on Thursday! Together w/ @joerglau.bsky.social, @hannanotte.bsky.social & András Rácz, @stoeckmannjan.bsky.social will unpack the geopolitical implications of the conflict in the Middle East, focusing especially on 🇮🇷-🇷🇺 relations & 🇷🇺’s war against 🇺🇦. buff.ly/ZJ4nZor

The very first reactions from #Russia to the US bombing #Iran #nuclear facilities can be summed up as: “Thank God we have nuclear weapons” This event will likely propel Russia's efforts to further strengthen its own nuclear coercive credibility for deterrence and compellence

Worth looking at #Putin remarks about #Russia and #Israel-#Iran at #SPIEF2025 in full - they reveal a lot about his current thinking: -He says that "those who promote ... narratives about Russia's unreliability as an ally are provocateurs" 🧵

Backing the most anti-Western Middle Eastern power was convenient—until it wasn’t, @hannanotte.bsky.social writes:

Backing the most anti-Western Middle Eastern power was convenient—until it wasn’t, @hannanotte.bsky.social writes:

Why Isn’t #Russia Defending #Iran? Russia is not happy about Iran’s humiliation at the hands of Israel, a US ally. But when it comes to shaping events far from its borders, Russia is only so able. My essay in @theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Backing the most anti-Western Middle Eastern power was convenient—until it wasn’t, @hannanotte.bsky.social writes:

Why Isn’t #Russia Defending #Iran? Russia is not happy about Iran’s humiliation at the hands of Israel, a US ally. But when it comes to shaping events far from its borders, Russia is only so able. My essay in @theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Putin hat Grund, mit Sorge auf die Angriffe gegen Iran zu blicken, sagt @hannanotte.bsky.social . Konkrete Auswirkungen auf seinen Krieg gegen die Ukraine habe ein Waffenlieferstopp aus Teheran aber wohl vorerst nicht. Die ganze Analyse bei @tagesspiegel.de : www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...

Keine Drohnen mehr aus Teheran: Verliert Putin seinen wichtigsten Verbündeten im Nahen Osten? Mein Interview mit @tagesspiegel.de www.tagesspiegel.de/internationa...

Pro-war Russian Telegram channel predicts benefits for #Russia's war against #Ukraine from #Israel-#Iran war: Amid protracted mutual attacks & general shortage of interceptors, new serious deliveries of Patriots to Ukraine are becoming "increasingly illusory" = good for Russia t.me/dva_majors/7...

How does #Russia look at the #Israel-#Iran war? How is Russia reacting; how will it position itself; what are its cards; what are its concerns - and what are the implications for its war against #Ukraine? A🧵on 6 themes

How does #Russia look at the #Israel-#Iran war? How is Russia reacting; how will it position itself; what are its cards; what are its concerns - and what are the implications for its war against #Ukraine? A🧵on 6 themes

Waiting for more reactions from #Russia to #Israel attack on #Iran. But what seems highly likely - in continuation of the trend of the past year - is that there is little #Russia can or is willing to do for Iran. 🧵

#Russia's current playbook for engaging #Trump is totally different from the one it followed during the 2009 US-Russian reset: Putin has more patience, less goodwill and an altogether different measure of success. My latest for the @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/c207...

#Russia's current playbook for engaging #Trump is totally different from the one it followed during the 2009 US-Russian reset: Putin has more patience, less goodwill and an altogether different measure of success. My latest for the @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/c207...

It was a great honour to join the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Moldova, Hungary & Latvia at the Raisina Dialogue 2025 for a panel on European security. Moderated by V. Varma I discussed Europe's challenges in deterring Russia - from the hybrid to the nuclear domain: www.youtube.com/live/PBOqMaJ...

Massive congratulations to @johnalechner.bsky.social whose book DEATH IS OUR BUSINESS is published today. I had a chance to read an advance copy of this detailed and thrilling account of the Wagner Group's activities - from Syria to Ukraine - and highly recommend it!

"If the countries still committed to countering Russian disruption are to do so effectively in this new, uncertain era, they will need to assess carefully where and when to enter the fray—starting with the increasingly imperiled European front." My latest: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-b...

In which I try to make sense of Russia as a source of global upheaval - in a new era of American disruption. My latest for @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-b...

I was privileged to speak at what felt like a pivotal @munsecconf.bsky.social 2025 - looking beyond Europe (understandably the focus of attention) to address some of the global implications of Russia's foreign policy: Its ties with China, Iran & North Korea; and its stance on nuclear issues.

New Syria DM: -Russia can keep its bases as long as any agreement serves Syria's interests - additional negotiations required; -Russia’s attitude toward Syria has “improved significantly” since Assad's fall -“In politics, there are no permanent enemies” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...