Seeing lots of theories about why the crime decline is continuing (phones, lead, both of which I think matter) and nobody saying the most obvious one: the opioid epidemic has peaked and was driving a lot of violence.

The crazy part of this is that a couple years ago, the US increasing its military presence in Greenland would’ve been celebrated by Europeans as a strong signal of allied solidarity. Now, it’s seen as a serious threat to Greenland’s (future) sovereignty, rightly so.

As someone who follows Europe very closely, I have to admit I have seen about 10 minutes of Eurovision in my entire life… and I’m perfectly okay with that

Europeans vs the rest of social media on any given #Eurovision night BANGARANGA 💃🏻🕺❤️🇪🇺

Just back from a fascinating and inspiring week in Ukraine. Shift in momentum in the war is clearly felt and believed in Kyiv. Big question is whether Ukraine can push its deep strike campaign to another level. On the downside, there is no magic solution to the energy situation next winter.

CSIS vs. RUSI death match

In the latest episode of #RussianRoulette, @maxbergmann.bsky.social and I spoke with @samagreene.bsky.social about Russian public opinion amid economic strain, the war, declining approval ratings, and Putin’s growing paranoia. w/@erep.csis.org

Seems unwise -- increased fiscal cost of turning on a dime; damaged relations with an ally pulling more than their weight; unilateral reduction of deterrent strength apparently in exchange for nothing from RU; chaos introduced into the lives of soldiers. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Great scoop by Dewey Sim Russian leader Vladimir Putin will pay a one-day visit to Beijing, just days after President Xi Jinping wraps up his closely watched summit with his American counterpart Donald Trump.

Live footage of European GDP falling behind America's. Poor French people on their four-day weekend look inconsolable.

Great piece by @fromtga.bsky.social: Germany’s defence surge is transformational but the big question is whether it’s done narrowly and nationally or as part of a wider European rearmament.

This week, President Trump is set to travel to Beijing for a highly anticipated summit with President Xi Jinping. What should we expect from the meeting? We turned to @chinapower.csis.org expert Bonny Lin for answers.

Sanchez was right maybe

Undoing Brexit is no longer just up to the UK. For the EU to take the UK back, it will have to firmly demonstrate that it is committed to the federal project. The crux of the UK's problem has always been it wanted the European project to just be about a common market; not a federal project. 🧵

🚀 New Missile Matters post: how Europe can rapidly acquire deep-strike capabilities after Washington canceled the Long-Range Fires Battalion. No ideal solution remains, but Europe is not out of options. missilematters.substack.com/p/beggars-ca... Short summary below. 1/5

"By deepening its own single market and leveraging its extensive network of bilateral agreements, the European Union can champion a more resilient, rules-based system that balances strategic autonomy with international cooperation," writes @erep.csis.org. More: https://bit.ly/4cYPzsh

And yes, Europe is a lived reality of many citizens: three out of four say they feel they are a citizen of the EU.

81% support a common security and defence policy among EU member states. That is four out of five citizens.

Newest Eurobarometer is out, and numbers are mind-blowing: 73% of EU citizens see the EU as a “pillar for peace and security in a troubled world”. ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

🇪🇺🇬🇧 Big, big debate has now taken off inside Labour on the back off disastrous election results over whether it should use the new world of the Iran war & Donald Trump to justify breaking its 2024 manifesto commitments - in particular rejoining the Single Market & Customs Union

2 Epic 2 Fury

In case you missed it, this was one of the proposals @nilsredeker.bsky.social @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social and I made how to Europeanise EV industrial policy. Most European economists I heard from agreed with this as a way forward - we seem to have balanced red lines. www.cer.eu/publications...

In further embrace of flexibility over unity, German foreign minister Wadephul today held a speech calling for institutional reforms in EU foreign policy. Some aspects are standrd German positions, such as majority voting, but Wadephul also called for using Enhanced Cooperation in foreign policy.

It's astonishing that the Americans have seemingly paid so little attention to what's been happening in Ukraine for >4 years & seem to have learned so little about drones & counter-drones from their Ukrainian partners, while Russia & Ukraine have helped each other with tech, tactics & intelligence.

In the end, the difference between immediately denouncing the US attack on Iran as illegal and attempting to somehow justify it has been that Merz and Meloni got abused by Trump two months later than Sánchez.

Russian oil&gas revenues in April rose as a result of higher oil prices. The total was 856 billion RUB (incl. quarterly NDD tax, minus higher subsidies for domestic market). In nominal terms, oil&gas revenues are at 2024 levels, and roughly in line with original budget plans.

A couple questions: 1) why is KPMG writing reports for Chinese state propaganda purposes? 2) why is Reuters reproducing these reports without any context? No comment from the EU or independent tech experts and no mention of China's restrictions on European tech www.reuters.com/world/china/...

So… Europe

Trump’s abrupt decision to cancel a planned deployment of Tomahawk missiles to Germany has made stark a major fear in European capitals: that the US will withdraw critical weapons from Europe faster than the continent can develop domestically-made alternatives. as.ft.com/r/754bcccf-a...

Trump’s latest moves on trade and troops in Europe reconfirm two simple facts: no deal with Trump is worth the paper it’s written on & no degree of bending the knee to him makes an iota of a difference (other than shredding European dignity)

”developments … show that European nations are working with shocking speed to free themselves from dependence on America.” The problem never was that Europeans cannot imagine European security without the US. The problem is that Americans can’t imagine that Europeans can do it.

Berlin, you have a problem.

We’re watching you King man.

"The Economist is loth to second-guess those who have the facts to hand and billions of dollars at stake. However, markets have a poor record of pricing geopolitical risk." #oil #diesel www.economist.com/leaders/2026...

Big EU digital news: Commission has preliminarily found Meta's Instagram and Facebook in breach of the Digital Services Act (DSA) for failing to diligently identify, assess and mitigate the risks of minors under 13 years old accessing their services.

🚘 New monthly record! More than 230,000 electric vehicles were registered in the EU in March. The upward trend comes as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dramatically increased the price of petrol and diesel.

“Applications from the United States to Sciences Po’s bachelor’s program surged 52 percent this academic year, while the number of Sciences Po students applying to study for a year in the United States has plunged by 50 percent.” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/29/w...

No kings

A pleasure to chat with @maxbergmann.bsky.social about managing the fallout in Europe from higher energy prices stemming from Hormuz.

The #Eurofile: a stunning end to Orbán's rule, Bulgaria's eighth election in five years, and a conversation with @bmcwilliams.bsky.social about the fallout for European energy of the war in Iran. Tune in below. 🎙️ @maxbergmann.bsky.social @donatienneruy.bsky.social www.csis.org/podcasts/eur...

China is getting worked up about the European preference in the industrial accelerator act, and going public with it. It shows China needs the EU market, and Brussels is building some leverage Beijing probably didn’t think it’d have the guts to build. www.ft.com/content/f492...

In a new episode of the Eurofile, @erep.csis.org experts cover Hungary's rejection of Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power, Bulgaria's eighth election in five years, and more. Listen: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/eurofile/end-orban-and-europes-energy-crunch

Norway sold 12 petrol cars in February 2026. Out of 7,272 new passenger car registrations, 98% were fully electric. Just 67 diesel & 12 petrol cars were registered. Hybrids? Only 66 in total mostly plug ins. More in my new Substack newsletter coming out every 7 days. Sign up here: t.co/In5lBaF2ox

There was no better mentor, no better man in Washington than Larry Korb. He lived an amazing life, had an amazing career, and did it all by always being who he was. It was such a privilege to work for him 20 yrs ago and to have him as a mentor and friend. www.americanprogress.org/press/statem...

A country not prone to decisive action is the country that European security will rely on.

Fingers crossed! Because Europe's security is now based on Germany filling the chasm left by America.

More civilizational decline

Suspending funds is the EU’s strongest tool to safeguard rule of law. In Hungary, release of frozen EU funds was a key factor in Péter Magyar’s campaign. The Commission wants to enshrine RoL conditionality in the next MFF. In a new paper, I take a closer look: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...

🇪🇺🇭🇺🇺🇦‼️ EU Ambassadors have just agreed to launch two written procedures to adopt the sanctions package and approve the Ukraine support loan. Kyiv is about to get its €90bn