Lots of Russian regions are raising their sign-on bonus right now, indicating recruitment problems. Just in the last weeks: Volgograd 2.6m YaNAO 3.6m Astrakhan 2.6m Rostov 3m Khabarovsk 2.1m Magadan 3.6m Sakha/Yakutia 2.1m KhMAO 3.55m Kab-Balk 2.4m Karach-Cherk 2.4m Novosibirsk 2.9m Sevastopol 1.5m

Recruitment in Russia is slowing down. In Q1 of 2026, numbers were down by 20% compared to last year. This change is evident in both official statements and budget data. On average, it was 800 new contract soldiers per day this year.

1\ Very hopeful new evidence from the excellent @jakluge.de for 2026Q1. "Despite further increases in sign-on bonuses...Russian recruitment was significantly slower than in the previous year. Both official information and estimates based on regional budget data confirm"

Unsere Hörempfehlung der Woche 🔊 @felixheiduk.bsky.social & @jakluge.de diskutieren das Konzept „Multipolarität“ in der neusten SWP-Podcast Folge⬇️

Your podcast for the Easter weekend: @jakluge.de & I discuss the implications of the #IranWar‌ for #Russia, its economy, foreign policy, and war against #Ukraine. We join hosts @maxbergmann.bsky.social and @msnegovaya.bsky.social on another episode of Russian Roulette: www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...

Russian oil+gas revenues in March were 617 billion rubles, the lowest since 2021. Russia's tax rate is based on the previous month, so these numbers don't reflect the Iran war yet. Unfortunately, the next month will.

The Iran war has huge implications for Russia, for its foreign policy, its economy and the war against Ukraine. Listen to @hannanotte.bsky.social and me discussing what it all means for the Kremlin, and what it may lead to, in Russian Roulette with @maxbergmann.bsky.social & @msnegovaya.bsky.social.

SWP gibt's jetzt auch bei Youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=xin_...

Zur Lockerung der US-Sanktionen / Irankrieg: - Russland profitiert wirtschaftlich (Hunderte Mio. € pro Tag) - aber für Putin ist der Krieg auch eine Zwickmühle - ukrainische Drohnen-Erfahrung sehr gefragt Das ganze Interview (6 min) gibt es hier: www.tagesschau.de/video/video-...

»Multipolarität« ist zum zentralen, aber ambivalenten Begriff der Debatten über die künftige Weltordnung geworden. Eine neue SWP-Studie zeigt, welche Ordnungsvorstellungen und Ziele in ausgewählten Staaten mit dem Begriff Multipolarität verbunden werden. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Germany's intelligence service BND says Russia's federal deficit was actually 3.6% of GDP in '25, not 2.6%. This was exactly my final estimate in December, based on past spending patterns (random but funny: I estimated 8.02 trillion). If true, the deficit was probably hidden in other public budgets.

Russia Finance Ministry data now officially confirms: Russia's consolidated budget deficit was 3.9% of GDP in 2025 (8291.5 billion RUB). More on the background: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-co...

Dmitry Peskov says the main goal of Russia's war is to "ensure the safety of the people in Donbas who used to be in mortal danger..."

Russia’s recruitment numbers look steady, but regional funding is reaching a breaking point. How much longer can Putin avoid another mobilization? We asked researcher @jakluge.de. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

Russia relies on high bonuses to recruit soldiers to fight in Ukraine, but with costs soaring, is there a looming risk of another mobilization? “Recruitment is clearly the Achilles’ heel of Russia’s war,” says @jakluge.de. My latest Q&A for @meduza.io. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

I am tracking 15 Russian regions covering 20% of the total population, and they paid out compensation for 19,500 killed soldiers in 2025. This supports estimates of up to 100,000 Russian KIA last year. (Changes from month to month don't show battlefield dynamics, rather budget dynamics).

In St. Petersburg, contract soldiers are promised 10m rubles in the first year of service, almost 5m in the first month. The median salary in St. Petersburg is ~1.0m per year, the average ~1.5m per year. As a contract soldier, you go straight to the top 10% income bracket.

Every day, Russian regions are increasing their signing bonuses for contract soldiers. St Petersburg just became the new leader, offering a regional payout of 4.1 million. Rapidly increasing payouts mean that Russian recruitment is not going as planned right now. (Chart from gogov.ru)

Russia's Vologda region just entered the (growing) club of regions offering over 3 million rubles to new contract soldiers. Source: gogov.ru/contract-pay...

The militarization of Russia's economy continues at full speed: Production of weapons (here: "finished metal goods") increased by 20-30% last year. Source: forecast.ru

The deficit in Russia's extra-budgetary (social) funds was more surprising - and looks more like "creative accounting": Reducing federal subsidies to the funds so that the federal budget deficit can stay within the announced 2.6% of GDP.

The budget deficit of Russia's regions shouldn't have been a surprise: Regional budget balances was worsening throughout 2025. War costs of Russian regions increased, while tax revenues (especially profit tax) fell. Source of data: Russian Finance Ministry.

185,000 killed Russian soldiers, identified by name. Light gray is "date of info" (when the information about the death appeared online), if the date of death is not known. Not necessarily an indication of the death toll in a particular month, but overall there seems to be a trend. Data: poteru.net.

Russian labor market is cooling (red: job openings - gray resumes).

Financial Times featured my recruitment estimates today. www.ft.com/content/ce74...

The financial situation of Russia's pension system improved a lot since 2017, saving the budget 2% of GDP in spending (almost 10% of federal budget spending). The reasons were: 1.) Increasing the pension age 2.) High Covid-19 death rate 3.) Increasing real wages > higher contributions

Federal budget subsidies to the Russian social security system. Pension subsidies fluctuate a lot. They are occasionally used as a buffer to make sure that the federal budget balance comes in on target.

Russia's fiscal situation is worse than expected: The consolidated budget had a deficit of nearly 4% of GDP in 2025. Regions are under pressure from increasing war costs. Social funds were forced to draw down their reserves after federal transfers were cut. Read: open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...

Updated my Substack to reflect this important point: Very low subsidies to the social funds late in the year were a big reason why Russian federal budget spending seemed so strangely low late in 2025. See last paragraph: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-co...

Russia's fiscal situation is worse than expected: The consolidated budget had a deficit of nearly 4% of GDP in 2025. Regions are under pressure from increasing war costs. Social funds were forced to draw down their reserves after federal transfers were cut. Read: open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...

Russia's regional budget deficits increased significantly in 2025, reaching 1.5 trillion RUB. The reason: Increased war financing from the regions and lower profit tax revenue. Regional spending rose by 10%, while regional revenues increased by only 5%.

Neues aus der Berliner Zeitung: BSW-Politiker wird als Gasexperte verkauft und sagt Russengas ist auch nicht schlechter.

Looks like German manufacturing has turned the corner. www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...

In late 2025, many Russian regions lowered their recruitment bonuses, most likely because of budget pressures. Now, they are increasing them again, and the average regional bonus (in my dataset) has reached a new high of 1.44 million rubles.

Just 393.3 billion rubles in oil and gas revenue for Russia's budget in January. That is the lowest figure since the 2020 Covid oil price crash - in nominal terms, not considering inflation etc.

Russian oil and gas revenue was just 2.0% of GDP in January. If I'm not mistaken, that is a record low for the whole Putin era (since 2000). Here is the data since 2011.

Nur noch der Krieg. Witkoff ist ein Genie!

Trump's Greenland narrative is almost a 1:1 copy of Putin's Crimea narrative: "It belonged to us in the past. Stupid leaders gave it away for no good reason. Now we want it back. We need it for our security. We need to protect it. It will be best for the people who live there."

Russian industrial-scale production of drones has changed the character of the war in Ukraine last year. From 2024 to 2025, drone attacks rose 5x, from 11,000 to 55,000. www.kyiv-dialogue.org/en/news/news...

Foreign policy think tank in 2026...

If you say that Putin should get Crimea or Donbas, then you can't say that Trump shouldn't get Greenland. It's the same redrawing of borders by great powers at the expense of smaller neighbours. Normalizing the annexation of Crimea has paved the way for Trump's Greenland demands.

Russia's federal deficit in 2025 did not exceed 2.6% of GDP, according to preliminary data from Russia's finance ministry. There was very, very little spending in December. It will be interesting to see the consolidated budget (incl. regions/social security). minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...

Yes, 30% of Republicans would approve illegally attacking a peaceful NATO ally to annex territory. Source: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

Der Krieg gegen die 🇺🇦 ist eine Frage des Durchhaltens. @jakluge.de spricht deshalb mit @gresselgustav.bsky.social, @efdavies.bsky.social & @jcbehrends.bsky.social über die Lage der russ. Wirtschaft, die Aussichten für 2026 – und über das Wesen des Putin-Regimes. Mod: @richvolkmann.bsky.social

China has shown us how to win a trade war against Trump. Deals are worth nothing. Only leverage counts. EU has to push back.

Russia's finance minister, Siluanov, reported that the budget deficit was 2.6% of GDP last year. This implies an unusually frugal December, which breaks with previous spending patterns. www.interfax.ru/business/106...

Regional bonus size was not correct in my previous post (thanks to @leoskyview.bsky.social for pointing it out). Here is the development over the past 2 years. Late 2025 was messy because some regions likely moved payments to 2026 (budget issues), others may have fulfilled their quota early.

2024 Regional bonuses: ~200 billion rubles. Federal bonuses: ~110 billion rubles. 2025 Regional bonuses: ~600 billion rubles. Federal bonuses: ~160 billion rubles. Regional bonus increased (avg contract): 2024: 500k -> 1.5m. 2025: 1.5m -> 2m. Federal bonus increased: August 2024: 195k -> 400k.

In 2025, sign-on bonuses alone were around 0.3-0.4% of Russian GDP (700-800 billion rubles), 80% of which came from regional budgets (~600 billion rubles). Of course, the bonuses are not the only cost of recruitment. Total payouts for casualties are likely to be much higher.