1\ A bit about Russia refinancing debt. Yesterday they paid off bond which was at 7.15%/year coupons. Yesterday they borrowed at ~13.5% coupons due for fixed-rate debt. Their variable rate borrowing should cost even more. Russia's YET AGAIN piling up future costs to try and keep the war going.

1\ Some more evidence that the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions are starting to affect Russian oil prices. Price changes are consistent with a rush to buy oil that could be delivered before the 21st November deadline. Followed by an actual sanctions effect cutting Russian oil income.

Republicans stopped all new sanctions on shadow fleet tankers when they came into power. That helped Russia keep tankers running and got more money for Russia's war. Why did Republicans help Russia like that?

Exciting news, finally data hinting that the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions are directly hurting Russia. A ~$6.50/bbl extra discount increase is big enough to override market price increases of ~$5/bbl. I still think it'll take a while to be sure, but this is promising 🤞volume/cost info also needed.

Cool topic, mentioned by Perun too youtu.be/TkB2pX8eBEM?...

1\ like I said elsewhere, pro-Russians will say any words they think will achieve their goals: justify less aid for Ukraine, so more Ukrainians die, and Russia can continue the war and hope to win. That has been the open republican policy since late 2023 when they started blockading Ukraine funding

Huge Russian borrowing 2025-11-12. Total proceeds in 2025 (roubles): Borrowed = ~6220bn 2025 goal = ~6981bn Auctions left = 6 Amount needed = 761bn Needed weekly = 127bn Proceeds this week = 1754bn Average yield undefined because it was almost entirely variable rate bonds.

09.11.25 Russians, presumably marines, attacked Ukrainian positions near Volodymyrivka, Pokrovsk direction. Using bad weather conditions (fog as usual) they tried to breakthrough but were destroyed. They suffered the next losses: • 3 BTR-82AT; • 1 BMP-3; • 3 turtle tanks

1\ @monstars.bsky.social doesn't seem to be posting the updates here, but there's another source of Russian KIA information and it's also showing a surge in recorded Russian deaths.

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1\ arussia reported a 4.19tr rub Jan-Oct deficit, within 5% of my central 4.4tr projection. They needed 3.9tr or below to be on course for their new budget plan. There were monthly drops Vs 2024 in expenses, oil&gas revenue AND other revenue.

1\ We're still waiting to see the effect of the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions on Russian oil money. Data are pointing in different directions before they enter force on 21st Nov.

1\ Damn it. Janis Kluge found evidence of the bad case I talked about here bsky.app/profile/leos... Russia cut some recruitment bonuses because it had more than enough men signing up in those regions.

Interesting, albeit old, post on Russian oil prices. Suggests that the Argus FOB prices used in Russian tax calcs might be misleading, and the oil companies might be pocketing more cash with workarounds. Could be out-of-date though.

Republicans are responsible for stopping US funding of Ukraine. Tens of billions of $ of life saving equipment prevented. Putin's dream result. Republicans caused mass Ukrainian death and have prevented peace in Ukraine. Sad.

1\ Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) update from Prune. By my quick calcs, they have withdrawn about 16.0 bn yuan and 88.7t of gold so far in 2025. All to recapitalise banks and/or fund infrastructure - nothing for the budget yet. They're trying to fund that with massive borrowing.

1\ How many times does this need to be restated? Russia ONLY negotiates when it is punched in the face. Go look up what happened around the "Black Sea Grain Initiative". Republicans blocking aid packages to Ukraine only achieved needless Ukrainian death and they made the war last longer.

1\ Russia is growing its mortgage burden again. And the government is subsidising most of the expansion. If interest rates end up higher than expected in future, their budget will have to find extra money, just like this year, meaning +debt or spending cuts. Rambly thread to show gathered data.

1\ If this data is accurate, then the sanctions announcement INCREASED Russian oil prices, and they remained above pre-sanction levels last week. Yes I know the media keeps telling you otherwise, but please look at the data they're actually using.

Poteru has added 2,150 russian KIA identified by name in the first week of November. 👉2022: 15k 👉2023: 32k 👉2024: 50k 👉2025: 57k so far On course for ~70k in 2025. Poteru excludes non-Russians, real KIA is higher, and many recently found actually died months ago.

One year ago Russian army had started their counteroffensive in Kursk area. My company fought against elite Russian units: 106 & 76 VDV divisions, 83 VDV brigade and 155 marine brigade. It was tough but successful for us. Frankly speaking, I would rather not be involved into it.

This is a really good call out. Russia has lots of oil in transit with no official destination. If it gets stuck, the new sanctions could have a really meaningful effect. If.

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1\ Russia collected 888.6bn rub in oil and gas taxes in October. My middle guess was 884.8bn. Freakishly close. Now that's locked in, my projection for cumulative Jan-Oct deficit is 4.4tr with a range of 3.4-5.1tr. 3.8-3.9tr is Russia's rough goal to be on target for the amended budget.

Nice thread by Jompy on Russian armour refurbishment. They started pulling the oldest, worst condition crap from storage. For T-62s, total 1k visibly removed, and there were probably more taken from hangars. The repair plant backlogs of T-62/80 are going down. Coming to the end of their supply.

Ukraine has launched a series of successful large-scale strikes across Russia tonight. As of November 6, multiple hits are confirmed. 🧵Thread: 1. A major fire was caught on video at the Kostromskaya thermal power plant in Volgorechensk, over 730 km from the Ukrainian border.

1\ Found a site that claims to show Russian ESPO oil prices. It says they went up after the 22nd Oct sanctions announcement. $57.27 on the 17th Oct. Rose to over $63.50 on 23rd. Still need official Argus prices then volume data to be sure.

1\ Putin signed Russia's new budget law. 5.8tr rub deficit versus 1.2tr in original plan. And the 1.8tr National Wealth Fund savings deposit is cancelled as expected. It seems like over 500bn rub extra deficit is due to higher interest rates on subsidised mortgages. Finance costs matter.

1\ I now realise Bloomberg reporting on Russian oil prices prob averages over 4 weeks. So we can't pull out sanctions effect yet. However, I found an Azeri news source that gives daily Urals prices. It looks like sanctions increased those Russian oil prices. I can't find ESPO yet.

1\ Azeri news reports that Russian Urals oil prices increased by $5.23/barrel or ~10% following the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions announcement. (calculated from 21st to 24th Oct) Unless there's a large reduction in sales volume to offset the price rise, Russia's oil income for the war will go up.

1\ A possibility: buyers rushed to "lock in" Russian oil before Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions on 21st Nov. That could temporarily prop up deliveries + prices. If the sanctions work, we'd then see a drop after. It could be weeks-to-months before we know if the sanctions worked.

Azeri news source: "URALS oil averaged $52.72 per barrel, up $1.39, or 2.7 percent, from last week." 3 weeks ago Bloomberg reported ~$53.50. A clean comparison of the weeks before/after the US sanctions announcement suggest no strong effect on Russian oil prices so far.

1\ China is a big player in world oil demand, and therefore funding Russia's war. Interesting things to watch (1) WSJ reports they've been supposedly stockpiling >1 million barrels/day and (2) Carbonbrief reports over half of their car sales were hybrid/electric by mid-2024.

1\ Bloomberg's weekly update on Russian oil exports should be very useful when it comes out on the 4th November. It will help us work out whether the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions have increased or decreased Russian oil income. IMO it'll be months before we're sure still.

October 2025 is the record for Russian war obituaries found by Poteru. Top 3 by KIA/day: 👉Oct '25 (299) 👉Sep '25 (271) 👉Dec '24 (203). Total KIA/month: 👉Oct '25 (9,257)👉Sep '25 (8,121)👉Dec '24 (6,297). (this is only a fraction of dead Russians. Those found now could be from months ago).

A Bloomberg headline says the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions made Russian oil prices drop. But the article's quoted data say that Russian oil prices actually went up. Yes they lost $1.50 vs Brent, but Brent increased by over $3. Did the new sanctions *increase* Russian oil $? Too soon to tell.

1\ Anyone got Argus Media Urals/ESPO oil prices? Public reporting I've found isn't enough to even tell if Russia is getting more or less oil profits than before sanctions were announced. Seriously, the reporting on this is so confusing. I'm even semi-convinced Russia is getting *more* money.

This is interesting. Clarification: it's 300-400bn ROUBLES (up to ~$5bn with current rates). Noel did a little typo with a ¥ symbol, which would have meant ~$56bn.

Russia borrowing after 2025-10-19 auction+AP. Total proceeds in 2025: Total borrowed = ~4468bn 2025 goal = ~6981bn Auctions left = 7 Amount needed = ~2513bn Needed per week = ~359bn Proceeds this week = ~185bn Yields ~15.3%, vs ~15.1% last week.

Estimating Russian military spending as of 31.8.2025: Step 1/2 Federal budget totals (bn RUB) 27,920 total spending - 20,160 open spending ------------------------- 7,760 classified spending ====================

150k Russian war dead on Poteru. 8k in 1st-27th Oct: just ~100 behind September total. Remember: these are *Russian* deaths. Ignores force mobilised Ukrainians etc. Real deaths are much higher. Many (most?) of these will have died months ago. This is a backward looking indicator.

1\ Russia says: 👉Nominal GDP will grow ~8% in 2025 👉Tax rates are higher in 2025 than 2024 ...and... 👉Non oil&gas revenue will be almost exactly the same in 2025Q4 as it was in 2024Q4. What!? This *might* be a trick to avoid a new budget law, but need help with a source. Anyone?

1\ Projected Jan-Oct cumulative Russian deficit. 👉mid-mid scenario = 4.4tr rub deficit 👉full range is 3.2-5.3tr rub deficit Jan-Sep was 3.8tr total, so October alone could be in surplus or deficit. Let's walk through the components and then I'll explain interpretation.

Russian expenses as of 22nd Oct 2025: 👉Avg daily in 2025 = 108m rub/day 👉Avg daily in Oct 2024 = 122m rub/day 👉Spending change = -11 % nominal Russia needs to cut spending ~15% during Oct-Dec to hit its new budget target. Here's hoping high end-of-month spending knocks them off course.

The insanity grows. October now in second place for most Russian war obituaries found, just behind September 2025. Record pace of over 300/day. Remember: these are Russians only, real deaths are higher (some don't get obituaries etc), and much of what's recorded now could be from many months ago.

Poteru and ualosses war obituaries have been adding war dead at a ratio of something like 3-6 Russians per Ukrainian for a little while now. Here's what @andrewperpetua.bsky.social sees based on looking at lots and lots of drone videos. He says he sees 4:1 Ru:Ua. Both sources could be biased.

1\ Interpreting how the new Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions affect Russia. It's annoying but we have to wait for data. We need to see (1) Argus Media prices for Urals + ESPO (2) export volume. Using Trading Economics or Indian prices is misleading. I'll explain...

1\ Here's a crazy example of a delay in Poteru data. For IDd Russian war dead, it seems they first use the date the obituary was found/added. So this guy was added as a Russian death 23rd Oct 2025. In this case the obit says he died in May 2022! They seem to check and update dates later.

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