Ukraine could build and use far more weapons, it's a really important part of what's needed to force Russia to negotiate and ensure peace. Please ask your representatives to fund Ukrainian deep strike. Spending now = building weapons needed to prevent Russia attacking again. A cheap way to peace.

Good update. My gut-feeling guesstimate is final 2025 deficit of 5.5-6.5 trillion rub, I'll try to present a real evidence-based estimate before it's announced. I've seen most other guesses in the 7-10tr range. I'm lower: guessing that Russia may delay payments until 2026 to hide problems.

Mediazona: huge new Russian cover up. Regional courts have started deleting online evidence of cases of missing Russians in Ukraine, who were very likely killed in action. Over 70,000 records disappeared this week. Before the deletions: "...the unrecovered dead we estimate now exceeds 180,000."

1\ This looks legit, based on public sources. We might not know what each satellite does, but trackers know where satellites are, so everyone can avoid collisions. I can't find evidence of a Russian "Kupol" launch of since 2022.

The main problem is not that Putin lies. He has always lied and always will. The problem is that so many people desperately want to believe him. Putin's lies make their lives more comfortable. They free them from the moral obligation to help Ukraine.

Ground drones seem important. Russia has more troops so shouldn't that mean exposing more people in supply runs? Ukraine needs Ru casualties + desertions to happen faster than Ru can recruit. Ground drones could change the war if they save enough lives. For either side.

1\ Russia is doing temporary money creation (aka Repo). I checked official Russian data and it seems to be the single biggest issue yet. 👉Today: 4.7tr rub 👉Biggest in 2022: 4.1tr rub on 01.03.2022 👉Biggest in 2014: 3.3tr rub 06.05.2014 A big sign of liquidity problems in Russia.

1\ Nice find by Prune. Read the link. Russian Rail looks like it's in deep, deep trouble. They're 4tr rub in debt and a 1.3tr bailout/restructuring/fire sale is being worked on. Their 2024 revenue was ~1.6tr rub.

Always remember: Republicans are singlehandedly responsible for stopping US aid packages. They saved Russia's war machine. They prevented peace. They caused massive Ukrainian death. They are trying to force the democracy to capitulate, and hand millions of innocents to a brutal dictator.

Russia reports December spending cuts vs 2024 so far. 👉1-23rd Dec 2024 = 4.902tr rub 👉1-23rd Dec 2025 = 3.169tr rub Huge cuts worth ~0.7% of annual GDP in a few weeks? Russia's defence minister says there's military "austerity" worth >1tr rub for things that don't directly murder Ukrainians.

Poteru just added theri 170,000th Russian war dead identified by name. True death numbers are much higher, and there are also lots of Ukrainians & others who have died on Russia's side. They're still finding 300+ new ones per day.

1\ The numbers in there are interesting. They want at least 4tr rub in mortgages issued in 2026 to prevent "collapse". Russian Deputy PM says in 2025 they issued 4.1tr, but 3.3tr were subsidised by the state. These mortgages expose the Russian budget to major financial risks.

Follow kriegsforscher. He's with Ukraine's marines, and not only does he defend his people&home and our own democracies, but he reports accurate news in English. Sometimes he asks for a little help for his unit. If you follow him, you can see when he does.

Interesting claim. Some Russian regions have cut signup bonuses - poorer ones with finance problems and high recruitment. Maybe Russia will offer higher bonuses in regions that haven't supplied as much meat yet?

1\ Dunno how I missed this: "Russian Defence Minister Andrey Belousov has confirmed" that in 2025 “Austerity measures were applied" to expenses not directly related to military operations... “some expenditures were deferred to later dates. Others were reduced.” Military cuts worth 0.5% of GDP!

1\ This is a sign that Russia probably isn't needing to hit the wealth fund very hard for December. A bit of evidence that they might hit their budget goals Why?

Noel is a really good Ukraine news aggregator. Give them a follow.

Great thread. I hope Tatarigami will also share on bsky. He is an EXCELLENT source. A Ukrainian veteran with a careful & skilled team who are very open when things are bad. If you cann afford to support great investigations, here's his Frontelligence Insight page: frontelligence.substack.com

“When you do the numbers, it looks like somewhere between 1.6 million and 2.8 million barrels per day will get stranded without firm demand. At the moment, a lot of unsold oil is being stored on the water in tankers.” If prices stay low👉17-30% of russian oil supply at risk?

1\ Interesting analysis suggests Russia may have more active armour now than 2022. It makes sense to me, although it's highly uncertain. The Soviet armour reactivation was huge, and Russia is sacrificing men to save armour. On course to lose ~2,000 fewer armoured vehicles this year vs 2024.

1\ Russia selling two constant-coupon bonds tomorrow. It's their last official day to borrow money and they didn't go for desirable variable rates, nor did they satisfy most repo demand. Suggests they're not going to try to borrow a lot more than their goal. ~7tr rub or so total this year.

Gazprom's board just announced investment cuts of 32% or 515bn rub in 2026. In 2024, Russia cancelled a 600bn rub/year gas windfall tax "to finance Gazprom's investment program". Russia *could* cut taxes further to boost their gas industry's future, but atm they'd rather pay to murder Ukrainians.

Nice post here, I hadn't realised that tanker prices *globally* had gone up so much. I'd only been watching Russian reports. The linked story suggests sanctions play some role. Some Russian oil seems trapped at sea right now, so those tankers should be off-market = lower supply = higher prices.

Btw, why the western analytical community and the Pentagon, etc, are all trying to say Ukraine’s big problem is that they have not drafted all their people and sent them to the front, is because they are trying to shift responsibility away from their own terrible failures.

1\ What happens to Russia if oil prices stay around recent levels? Tl;dr at recent prices + exchange rates, my guesstimate is they'd end up 3-4tr rub short in 2026. Prices & exchange rates will change though. Here are a few things I noticed looking through Russian tax tables...

This now appears legit - the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions have seriously hit Russia. The question is whether it's temporary, and what workarounds Russia and trade partners will try out. E.g. Indian refiners are allegedly paying almost $20/barrel for delivery. Is that sneaking dollars to Russia?

Follow @delfoo.bsky.social if you want good info on Russian finances. Notice here how he provides all the data from this year so you can work out the context for yourself? Great stuff. And Russia's numbers should get worse in January.

1\ Russia's budget says they'll spend ~5.6tr rub in December. A big cut versus Dec 2024. By the 19th they'd only spent ~2.7tr rub. Almost ~3tr left to spend in 12 days There are end-of-year payments to consider. Last year they spent 2.2tr in the last few days.

Andrew Perpetua counts Russian dead on drone video: "highest KIA/Day that we've seen so far in the war...for the past 30 days. There are 4897 total and 163.2 per day" This is ONLY what he & his team see on publicly released drone videos. It is very incomplete.

Ukrainian fortifications in Zaporizhzhia. Sometime in November and got significantly extended since.

Russia is losing billions of dollars each month because of oil sanctions... Discounts on Russian oil have risen to 30% and in some cases over 50% (!) relative to Brent. Source: www.hellenicshippingnews.com/sanctions-dr...

🔥 RBC reports that Urals fell below $35/barrel on December 16, citing Argus Media data!! Russia’s collapse might be dramatic should oil prices stay this low.

European natural gas prices are the lowest since pre-2022. ~€27/MWh versus more like €40-50 range last winter, and higher in 2022. Relief for Europeans and less money for Russia.

Interesting. Russian Rail told to sell a Moscow skyscraper "for not less than the 2024 purchase price...193.1 billion roubles." And "Kostin, CEO of Russian Railways' largest lender VTB told Reuters that creditors rejected a proposal to convert 400 billion roubles of debt into shares." Lol.

Poteru keeps finding Russian war deaths at a really high rate. 👉1st-16th Dec 2025 = 312/day 👉Dec 2024 = 205/day 👉Dec 2023 = 99/day 👉Dec 2022 = 73/day Fastest was Nov 2025 at 315/day. Recently a lot is backlog though - Russia changed reporting rules and Poteru is only seeing & adding them now.

Prune shows here that Russia is now on course to borrow the amount it says it needs for 2025. They borrowed over 110bn rub this week and only need ~80bn next week. That's for their official targets, who knows what they'll actually need.

The red line is what Russia views as its own border (from today's presentation of the defense minister Belousov). I think negotiations are hopeless at this point. First, the frontline needs to be stabilized.

Sanctioning russian shadow tankers works. The moment Trump became president, the issuing of new sanctions stopped. A huge aid to Putin's war. Why would they stop the sanctions for 10 months unless they want to save Putin's war and make more Ukrainians die? Makes no sense.

Some great graphs from this account. Ukraine's SBS (drone forces) increasing claimed Russian casualties (blue line, left axis). General Staff claims of total are flatter (red line, right axis). Please read the axes carefully.

Ukrainian officer says that snowfall is causing problems for the finest mesh anti-drone nets. It's building up on them and making some collapse. t.me/officer_33/6...

Not "in the near future". Sounds like Merz is telling Russia to just keep fighting and hold on and they might get rewarded.

Today we were attacked by the 1st TA. During the assault Russians used 4 BTR-82AT and 2 BMP-1/2, 1 tank and approximately 7 motorcycles. All of them were destroyed along side with 1 2S1 SPG and «Ural» truck with D-30 artillery gun that were moved to support the assault.

This is the best bit: "On average, Russian oil exporters are receiving just over $40 a barrel for cargoes shipped from the Baltic, Black Sea and the eastern port of Kozmino, according to data from Argus Media. That’s down 28% over the last three months"

Mediazona: "Russian courts have now received almost 90,000 claims to declare missing servicemen dead or missing, a dramatic rise that began only in mid-2024 and continues to accelerate...courts are now recognising missing servicemen far faster than we can add confirmed deaths to our own database."

1\ Russia insists that this December, they will make enormous cuts to federal spending and have a December deficit that is far smaller than in 2022/23/24. It sounds crazy and unrealistic, but I think they have one trick they can pull and it might just work. It would mean bigger costs next year.

1\ Russia's government is telling Russians that getting out of roubles is a good idea. The Ministry of Finance (MinFin) officially plans for 92.2 rub/$ next year and falling interest rates. If you believe MinFin, it's a good idea to buy dollars now rather than hold roubles.

1\ One factor that doesn't get covered enough... Russia tells people it is assuming certain exhange rates or interest rates in its budget. These are ANNUAL AVERAGES. There are different ways you get to an annual average, and that can have important consequences.

Seeing confusing claims on the Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions. Russian oil prices from Argus are down a lot, Urals to around $40/barrel (discount v Brent up a lot too). These are the prices used for russian tax calculations. So Russia should get less tax money since the sanctions.

Reuters estimates Russian oil&gas revenue in December to hit 410bn rub. Over 200bn rub short of the budget plan. That'd be nice. For 2026: 👉Assumption: $59/bbl oil, 92 rub/USD exchange rate 👉November 2025: $45/bbl oil, 80 rub/USD exchange rate. They need an oil price spike plus weaker rouble.

1\ A reminder that Russia's budget for next year includes 👉Cuts in war spending 👉More oil & gas income than 2025 And still a large deficit with lots of borrowing. Less money for war AND they need higher oil prices, or their finances will worsen again.