1\ Evgen Istrebin: Russian crude production peaked at 9.382 million barrels/day (bpd) in October 2025. Despite rising OPEC quota, production fell to 9.057m bpd in April 2026. A good start - he thinks that sustained shutdowns of refineries/ports/pipes etc could force bigger production cuts.

Saratov Refinery 1 POV: 51°26'34.77"N 45°56'12.98"E 2 POV: 51°26'29.18"N 45°56'53.16"E

Babe wake up new Russian budget execution data are on @jakluge.de 's browser.

I got a more curious translation of "cars and cisterns". And when plotted by month, the graph is very exciting.

🚀 I just published a new Missile Matters post assessing Russian conventional ballistic missile production rates, focusing on the 9M723 Iskander-M and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/how-many-c... Short summary below. 1/5

1\ There are some "interesting" patterns in the recent loss data. Ukraine losing slightly more "heavy equipment" pieces than Russia, at least with visible proof. But look at the details: would you rather lose Russia's or Ukraine's set of equipment? And consider the infantry losses too.

Ukraine just claimed to hit the largest ever daily number of Russian supply vehicles. +524 on the 30th May. 8k this month, the highest monthly total. The best month in 2025 was ~4k. The current claims are incredible, and the trend is now a very rapid increase.

In May 2025, Russia spent 2.626tr rub according to preliminary budget results. By 27th May 2026 they'd spent 2.326tr rub. The last few days will be interesting, can Russia get their budget under control?

I recommend monsters' threads. He's* not been this positive in any past threads I remember. *I assume "he". Please correct if I'm wrong.

Watch this. Puck Nielsen is one of the best people to listen to on Ukraine.

Fuel gushing out of a fuel storage tank in Feodosia. I wonder how many tanks get punctured like this but don't burn, so the damage is not visible in satellite imagery.

1\ Clement Molin has done more fantastic analysis, this time on Ukraine's midrange drone strikes on logistics. "The intensification of strikes against russian 🇷🇺 logistics (150 vehicles, 30 trains, 400 warehouses) is a real game-changer in the war." Stats are exciting. I think we need more.

1\ Can anyone talk Oreshnik with me? I'm not a weapons person, but I've quickly fallen into a maybe controversial opinion that "actually Oreshnik is good news so far". Those of you who know things, please provide context and argue with me if I'm being dumb.

1\ There are some important nuances to this story that I haven't seen clearly summarised. 👉Russia was asking for 2.9tr rub savings BEFORE the Iran war. 👉The Iran war could be worth 3tr rub to Russia. We don't know yet. 👉2.9tr rub cuts still wouldn't be enough to hit their budget targets anyway.

1\ Azeri media reporting that "EX NOVO" Urals contracts have been sticking around $20/bbl below Brent. Last time I checked (a while back), this was reasonably close to the eventual discount reported on the Argus FOB Urals prices used in Russian tax calculations.

I keep seeing claims of "fire control". Is it fire control if supplies are still able to drive in broad daylight? The definition seems kinda hazy... Very exciting, and Ukraine is on a good path, but I really want to know some actual numbers here. Fewer than 100 geolocated by OSINT last I saw.

🇷🇺 Crude oil exports, first 21d May 2026 (CREA): €6.05B / 11.4 Mt actual. Projection: €8.93B / 16.9 Mt. Daily avg 545 kt is below the 605 kt 12-month norm. W1 was depressed at 467 kt per day (lingering Baltic port damage). W3 only recovered to 600 kt, a normal baseline.

Interesting. Russia officially insists rates will fall more this year. At the same time, Even Istrebin reports money is leaving bank accounts and now VTB raises deposit rates. Hmm.

If they're right about the damage, this is a very big deal.

There's a constant denial response to Russian provocation. Denying reality to reward Putin and make him feel more comfortable only ever encourages and escalates. It's clear we need to reinforce Ukraine's air defences and ability to destroy Russia's war industry. Send lots more money and weapons.

‼️ Russia: “The Accounts Chamber is proposing to limit tax breaks for businesses.” 👉 “The deductions were provided by regional budgets. www.kommersant.ru/doc/8692635

“Volgograd, Volgograd Oblast, RF, Volgograd branch of LLC "Omsktekhuglerod" ROV: 48°29'36.53"N 44°39'04.09"E”

1\ This is what we desperately want. 150,000 invaders unable to receive reliable food, fuel, drones etc. Watch out for the actual numbers. I know there are impressive videos coming out, but Russia's logistics machine is huge. What matters is deep cuts in actual supplies.

This sounds like it could be really good news. Experiencing that 3x is way better than denying or pretending things haven't changed.

In this episode, a freed mariupol defender describes his injuries and treatment in russian captivity, with a special focus on a ukrainian from the occupied region of donetsk who learned this soldier served in the same unit as his son, so shared with him some chocolate. youtu.be/ay2UT-SeKDI

Interesting, a share issue rather than the government selling its shares. Should mean money goes to the bank, rather than the federal budget.

1/3 🇷🇺 Oil products & chemicals export volume is collapsing. First 20d May 2026 (CREA): 4.50 Mt actual, projects to 6.98 Mt full month. That is −16% vs Apr, −9.5% vs Mar, just 1.4% above the Feb low. Daily run-rate decline by week: W1 249 kt, W2 223 kt, W3 200 kt.

1\ 26/05/2026 repo: 4.32tr rub. Still huge. 27/05/2026 russian borrowing: 👉PD-26251: 70.0bn placed at 14.11% yield. Proceeds: 62.4bn rub 👉PD-26230: 35.0bn placed at 14.79% yield. Proceeds: 22.0bn rub Even though they're offering over 14%/year and they control the banks, they can't get much.

Russian "Green" offensive started on May 13, but May gains are lowest in 2 years.

I do not rule out the possibility of becoming the EU's representative in negotiations with Russia if asked to do so.

Has anyone seen reporting on actual birth/death numbers in Russia in 2025? What about next migration? Please link sources if you give numbers.

Today's cruise missile salvo launched by Russia (and destroyed by Ukraine) corresponds to roughly 18 days worth, averaged over the long term. Russia does not seem to scale the missile production -- the long term average hovers at around 4 a day (intercept rate is assumed high and/or constant).

🇺🇦👀 Fire Point Chief Designer Denys Shtilerman reported that after modernization, the FP-2 drone received an increased warhead weighing 200 kg and a range of up to 370 km.

Incredible video. This is the sort of thing out aid does. Aid = lives saved. We need to send more.

A Russian logistical route 100+km from the front has become a highway of death for Russian logistics vehicles.

Spending 1-21st May 2026 = 90m rub/day Spending 1-31st May 2025 = 83m rub/day Russia requires spending cuts to get their budget back on target. Not seeing those yet.

Russia calls them “retaliatory strikes.” I call them what they are. From the Children’s Cancer Hospital in Kyiv to Kramatorsk station, this article breaks down how Russia has spent years bombing civilians while hiding behind propaganda and diplomatic silence. open.substack.com/pub/shaunpin...

1\ Based only on Russian data, the 2026 budget trajectory is: 👉9-10 trillion rouble CONSOLIDATED budget deficit Asssuming oil&gas revenue follows the April pattern (including some Iran-war effect) and the rest of their budget follows historical patterns.

New high-res satellite images of the May 15 Ryazan refinery strike show more damage than first thought. 90-100% of refining capacity is out, Dnipro Osint reports.

The new discount for Primorsk and Ust Luga was 23,25 USD per barrel and the Ural oil price fell by 14,68 USD to 81,26 USD per barrel. This is due to weaker demand in India where refineries increased their purchases of Russian crude before the previous license expired on May 16.

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"In Novorossiysk, a massive drone attack has been ongoing for over an hour - the port and oil depot are on fire."

This is worth watching. Last year they got something like ~200bn rub worth and didn't have to report it on the "normal" debt stories that get most of the attention.

Republicans cut Ukraine aid to make more defenders of democracy die, and to save the tyrant's unprovoked invasion. Republicans chose to extend the war. They know supporting Putin is unpopular, so they lie. Do you just believe what politicians say, or are you smart enough to look at what they do

1\ Evgen Istrebin reports some Russian regions have cut benefits for soldiers again. Tatarstan recruitment bonus from 3.1m to 0.8m rub. Ulyanovsk family death benefit from 1 to 0.05m rub. I think there's better evidence this year that it's financial problems rather than exceeding quotas.

1\ Evgen Istrebin reports Russia's treasury accounts hold ~4tr rub. Down ~2tr from May 2025, and down ~3tr from May 2024. Total transfers from the treasury to social funds and the regions are listed as barely growing, so they're not using it to refill other funds.

Virtually all oil refineries in central Russia have been halted thanks to Ukrainian drone strikes. 🔥 www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Clément Molin mapped geolocated Ukrainian strikes on Russian military trucks across occupied southern Ukraine since January. The map shows at least 64 geolocated truck strikes; number of unlocated strikes is much higher. Most attacks occurred in April–May, most along the Donetsk–Mariupol highway.

“A guy films from his car as our drone, likely a DARTS, targets a Russian military truck near Yenakiieve. 📍 50 km from the front line [geo by blinzka] 🔪 The cutting of Russian logistics in the operational rear continues at a good pace.” Map in part 2

This isn't new, they've cancelled dividends before. But it's good they're still struggling and still in a ton of debt.