Hi all, I just published my latest Missile Matters post on the precarious state of Europe's mini jet engine industry, a sector that is critical to Europe's missile rearmament but remains underappreciated. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/small-thru... Short summary below. 1/7

Hi all, I just published my latest Missile Matters post on the precarious state of Europe's mini jet engine industry, a sector that is critical to Europe's missile rearmament but remains underappreciated. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/small-thru... Short summary below. 1/7

Hi all, I published a new Missile Matters post on Europe’s challenge in countering long-range drones. Access the full post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/europe-nee... Short summary below. 1/5

I fully agree with @frhoffmann.bsky.social here. I have for long argued that deterrence has to contain defensive and offensive capability. When I argued for 🇩🇰 acquisition of TLAM 7-8 years ago, there were many who ironically saw this as “too offensive” warontherocks.com/2025/09/deni...

Countering Russia’s Long-Range Drone Threat Challenges and options for European long-range drone defense By @frhoffmann.bsky.social missilematters.substack.com/p/europe-nee...

I'll be writing about the relevance of this event, as well as the general importance of mini-turbojet/turbofan technology, and why Europe is in a pretty bad spot, in my newsletter this weekend. You can sign up here to receive it straight in your inbox: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe

It is difficult to overstate what an industry-policy failure it is for the EU and wider Europe to have enticed PBS Group to invest in the United States rather than scale up production in Europe. 1/2

Interesting article from Hoffmann, which gives a clear recommendation to #Europe to change its strategy for long-range deterrence. #Russia #Ukraine

1/ ‘Explosions over Kyiv and other Ukrainian population centers are daily reminders that Russia’s missiles can reach deep and strike hard’. warontherocks.com/2025/09/deni...

I published a new @WarOnTheRocks article today, arguing that Europe’s denial-based missile defense strategy is bound to fail. Instead, I contend that Europe must adopt a punishment-based conventional counterstrike strategy. Link: warontherocks.com/2025/09/deni... Summary below.

At this point, we should stop pretending that European states are willing to contribute meaningfully to security guarantees. It's disappointing, but honesty has value here. Then we can start discussing independent Ukrainian alternatives, such as a fully fledged Ukrainian countervalue deterrent.

Russia launched 805 Shahed-type long-range drones in a single attack. Current output is about 90 per day and set to rise to at least 115 by year’s end, including with major Chinese support. 1/2

But Trump has also managed to instill the fear of abandonment in US allies. So it's a strange and unstable mix of aggression and unpredictability, more akin to the alliances of convenience of the pre-1914 period than NATO.

Hi all, I published a new Missile Matters post today, offering a battle damage assessment of Flamingo’s first combat use. Proof of concept was established, but the strike also revealed shortcomings. Access the post via this link: missilematters.substack.com/p/flamingo-c... Summary below. 1/6

It's difficult to estimate the cumulative impact of Russian radar losses, as much depends on Russia's ability to import high-quality microelectronics. Yet in combination with Ukraine's expanding long-range strike capabilities, the loss of AESA or PESA radar capacity is likely to be pretty bad.

Hi all, I published a new Missile Matters post today, offering a battle damage assessment of Flamingo’s first combat use. Proof of concept was established, but the strike also revealed shortcomings. Access the post via this link: missilematters.substack.com/p/flamingo-c... Summary below. 1/6

Ukraine's #Flamingo Cruise Missile Sees First Combat Use - What Does it Say About the Missile's Effectiveness?: @frhoffmann.bsky.social substack.com/app-link/pos... #Ukraine #Russia #Putinswar

I'll publish a more comprehensive battle damage assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo’s first confirmed combat use on my Substack tomorrow morning. After reviewing the site and taking proper measurements, I am somewhat less impressed by the missile. Sign up here: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe

I'll publish a more comprehensive battle damage assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo’s first confirmed combat use on my Substack tomorrow morning. After reviewing the site and taking proper measurements, I am somewhat less impressed by the missile. Sign up here: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe

Working on a Ukrainian LRS dataset: Does anyone have reliable information on whether the baseline version of the R-360 Neptune, which became operational in 2021, already included a GPS receiver, or did it rely entirely on inertial navigation for midcourse guidance? Information I find is ambiguous.

It looks like there was one hit, leaving a predictably large crater, and one clear miss. If we assume three missiles were launched, as shown in a video linked to the strike, one missile did not reach the target area. Overall, that makes one out of three. 1/2

So apparently the specifications of the Palyanytsya missile have been published. The system has previously been described as a missile-drone hybrid, as also noted below. But looking at the specifications, it is essentially another mini-cruise missile. 1/2

I could now go on about how it took 3.5 years to get here, and how much the previous German government, and partly this one, failed to realize this simple fact. But for now, let’s just be glad that the metaphorical floor of what must be done has finally been reached. 1/3

🎁

#Ukraine #Missile evolution 2014–2025 | @frhoffmann.bsky.social : - Adapt missiles to the war' need and scale the production throughput - Build independent strike capabilities (SCALP-EG were useful but too low quantity) - Junction of long range missiles with drones knowledge

Hi all, I just published my latest Substack post. With recent focus on Ukrainian missiles, from Flamingo to "Long Neptune" and others, I thought I'd provide context by tracing the evolution of Ukraine's missile programs. Short summary below. missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-... 1/6

The three big question marks surrounding the Flamingo: scalability of production, survivability, and accuracy. Let’s see if higher-resolution pictures can provide some indication of how far the missile missed its likely nominal aimpoint.

Range is only one factor that determines use of projectile. If stated specifications are correct, the Flamingo is faster than any other Ukrainian long-range strike weapon currently in its arsenal (except ATACMS if there are still any left). It also has a significantly higher payload.

Interesting pieace from a leading expert on missiles👇 Is 'Flamingo' a marketing ploy distraction from a corruption investigation? Either way, #Ukraine has other options for long range strike capabilities. If exsternal funding can keep up, that is.

Notice the framing; Russia and US on one side. Ukraine and Europe on the other. Dictatorship vs Democracy. This has been my main message for the entirety of Trump’s reign. Time to pick a side. It should be an easy choice to fight for Ukraine, Europe and Democracy.

Hi all, I just published my latest Substack post. With recent focus on Ukrainian missiles, from Flamingo to "Long Neptune" and others, I thought I'd provide context by tracing the evolution of Ukraine's missile programs. Short summary below. missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-... 1/6

Der heutige Beitrag von @frhoffmann.bsky.social beschreibt die Flugkörperentwicklungen der Ukraine im Zeitraum 2014–2025 und analysiert den Aufstieg, die Rückschläge sowie die Zukunft der ukrainischen Deep-Strike-Fähigkeiten. www.hartpunkt.de/flugkoerpere...

Allereerst - een goede actie van meerdere Europese landen om samen met de VS duizenden goedkope kruisraketten aan te schaffen die de komende weken al arriveren in #Oekraïne, waar een groot tekort is aan lange afstandswapens. Maar toch… (1/4) www.twz.com/air/ukraine-...

And another missile story: @frhoffmann.bsky.social gave his assessment on whether the Ukrainian FP-5 ”Flamingo” missiles, introduced this month, can change the war.

Bro please bro, let's try arms control with Russia one last time bro. I swear it will work bro, just one more time. kyivindependent.com/trump-says-h...

First picture of the "Long Neptune", a range-enhanced 1000-kilometer variant of the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile. Note the increased diameter in the midsection, likely for additional fuel, while the propulsion & warhead sections appear to remain unchanged compared to the baseline version. 1/2

No reason why European missile manufacturers couldn't have built such a system themselves, and no reason why European governments shouldn't have funded it. Now European funds leave the continent, and U.S. targeting restrictions will greatly reduce the impact. kyivindependent.com/us-approves-...

Hi all, I published my latest Substack post earlier today, offering an initial assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo’s specifications, lethality, survivability, and strategic implications. Access the full post via the link below: missilematters.substack.com/p/the-flamin... Short summary below. 1/6

The assumption that Ukraine's conventional long-range strike campaign would not make a difference was always an extremely odd one. People arguing against it portrayed a fundamental lack of understanding of strategic airpower provided by modern conventional missiles.

Ukraine was a participant in the INF Treaty, which Russia played an instrumental role in undermining. Now Russia will be faced with hundreds, likely eventually thousands, of Ukrainian ground-launched intermediate-range missiles of the type that the INF Treaty banned.

Hi all, I published my latest Substack post earlier today, offering an initial assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo’s specifications, lethality, survivability, and strategic implications. Access the full post via the link below: missilematters.substack.com/p/the-flamin... Short summary below. 1/6

The FP-5 #Flamingo Has Arrived: What Ukraine's 3,000-Kilometer Cruise Missile Means for the #War and the Future of #Europe: @frhoffmann.bsky.social substack.com/app-link/pos... #Ukraine #Putinswar #Russia #military

The FP-5 Flamingo Has Arrived: What Ukraine's 3,000-Kilometer Cruise Missile Means for the War and the Future of Europe Specifications, range, payload, lethality, survivability, and strategic implications. By @frhoffmann.bsky.social missilematters.substack.com/p/the-flamin...

Good overview of the capabilities and possibilities of Ukraine's new Flamingo missile by @frhoffmann.bsky.social.

@frhoffmann.bsky.social gibt einen Überblick über die Fähigkeiten und Möglichkeiten der FP-5 „Flamingo“ Rakete, welche die letzten Tagen Schlagzeilen gemacht hat.

A comprehensive assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo will be published tomorrow morning in my newsletter. I'll discuss the missile's characteristics and its implications for the war and Europe. Sign up her to receive it straight to your inbox. missilematters.substack.com/subscribe

A comprehensive assessment of the FP-5 Flamingo will be published tomorrow morning in my newsletter. I'll discuss the missile's characteristics and its implications for the war and Europe. Sign up her to receive it straight to your inbox. missilematters.substack.com/subscribe

I know much of the discussion focuses on the massive implications Flamingo’s mass production has for the ongoing war. But let's not overlook the major consequences Ukraine’s acquisition of a mass-produced heavy deep strike weapon will have for the post-war deterrence architecture. 1/4

Lavrov is literally performing standup comedy at this point.

On thing to note is that the long-range strike issue is one area where the Merz government handled matters well. I am not a fan of the decision not to supply Taurus in the end, as the political signal would have been important. 1/3