There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵

Good op-ed from @kaeggen.bsky.social & Magnus Håkenstad in @aftenposten.no today👇 "To believe that Russian attacks in a future war scenario - that is, between #Russia and the rest of #Europe – will only be hybrid, is a misreading of Russian strategy, with potentially fatal consequences."

🇬🇪Georgia is sliding into a legal dictatorship. Not overnight. Step by step. Each protest is met with a new tailored law. Each law designed to exhaust, criminalize, and isolate society until resistance itself becomes illegal. Here is how the latest law changes everything. 1/11

🎙️ Jyri and I joined @jimludes.bsky.social and Mark R. Jacobson on their excellent Active Measures Newsletter Podcast to discuss our recent article on Russia's strategic use of migrants. I also recommend their newsletter, where you can find links to our article and our Moscow Times opinion piece.

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

People seem surprised that the multi polar world they've lusted after is as peaceful as they were told it would not be. Odd.

Zelensky: I met with Budanov and offered him the role of Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. At this time, Ukraine needs a stronger focus on security, development of our Defense and Security Forces, and progress on the diplomatic track. The Office will serve these state priorities.

A new major logistics hub for Ukraine will open in Romania by the end of January 2026, becoming the second-largest in Europe after Rzeszów. It will allow NATO to double the flow of military aid to Ukraine, including through the PURL mechanism, where the U.S. supplies arms and Europe covers the cost.

I've tracked 145 cases of sabotage and disruption @apnews.com that Western officials blame on Russia. They say Moscow wants to drain Europe's security resources and identify weak spots. Arson & explosives plots particularly increased: 2023: 1 2024: 26 2025: 6 apnews.com/projects/rus...

Kaja Kallas: what we have to keep in mind is why countries want to be in NATO is because they don't want Russia to invade them. That's why Sweden and and Finland joined NATO, that's why the Baltic States joined NATO, to have this defense umbrella.

This new Hybrid CoE paper is a must-read for anyone interested in Svalbard and Russia’s hybrid activities on this strategically important Norwegian Arctic archipelago. 📝 @thomasnilsen.bsky.social @kariagam.bsky.social & @stianbones.bsky.social

Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

My favourite moments of this iteration of the ”US-Russia peace plan” were: 1. Dmitriev leaking it 2. The points admitting that Russia does kidnap Ukrainian children 3. The points including that Ukraine shouldn’t hit Moscow or St Petersburg ”without a cause” (Tbc)

📣 Op-ed in @themoscowtimes.com: "Understanding how this tool emerged in the Arctic a decade ago is a first step towards understanding how Russia leverages laws and human beings to serve strategic goals; goals that may change over time as Russia tailors its approaches & evaluates the risk involved."

A good look back on the 2015 🇷🇺🇧🇻 Storskog migrant crisis. FSB's fingerprints were found all over the operation. By @kaeggen.bsky.social sky.social & Jyri Lavikainen.

Today's most important read: "The 2015/16 migration crisis (on 🇷🇺 border with 🇳🇴 🇫🇮) can best be explained as strategic engineered migration and a pilot project of the Russian security services." By @kaeggen.bsky.social & Jyri Lavikainen

New article out in @ejisbisa.bsky.social ! In 2015–16, Russia’s FSB tested migration as a strategic tool in the High North, using state-orchestrated mobility to pressure neighbours, exploit humanitarian norms, and project influence short of war. Read the full article 👇 #OpenAccess #hybridwarfare

On November 11, 2025, @kaeggen.bsky.social will defend her PhD thesis “Russia’s Contemporary Grand Strategy: The Use of Information and Other Unconventional Means Towards the Nordic Region”. The defense is open to anyone interested. For time and place, see 👇 www.sv.uio.no/isv/forsknin...

📣 New article out in @defencestudies.bsky.social: "A strategy for the weak: the role of information confrontation in Russia’s grand strategy." Hopefully of interest to anyone seeking to understand Russia's view - and use - of the information domain!

📣 @siristrand.bsky.social og jeg har i dag en rykende fersk artikkel på trykk i tidsskriftet Internasjonal Politikk om russisk påvirkning i Norge og samspillet mellom tekniske (cyber) og psykologiske virkemidler i russiske informasjonsoperasjoner. Kan leses her 👇

Veldig god sak av @bergenstidende.bsky.social: "Havbunnen utenfor Bergen er full av rørledninger.. – Det er registrert sikk-sakk-kjøring over rørledninger, skip med russisk mannskap som senker farten, stopper opp eller beveger seg i farvann de ikke har noe å gjøre"

Reduced US support is not surprising, given the current US admin's approach to Ukraine and Russia. This has been ongoing for a while across fields since Trump's return. Yet the latest reporting on patriots and artillery is painful given the harsh summer facing UKR's military and civil society. 1/2

NEW: Russia conducted its largest combined strike series of the war on the night of June 28 to 29 by launching over 500 missiles and drones against Ukraine. Read more in the June 29. 2025 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar062925

Morning in Kyiv.

@drjademcglynn.bsky.social "Imagine being bombed like this while simultaneously being trolled by Moscow and D.C. that Russia is interested in negotiations ... for a ceasefire that the Kremlin says will only be temporary and only after Ukraine capitulates territories Russia cannot take militarily."

“Putin remains confident in Russia’s ultimate victory in Ukraine and is prepared to use military force at least through 2025.” U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency assessment, May 2025. armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...

Lavrov ups Russia's demands on Ukraine to include a ban on democratic elections. Do we get it yet?

Ny kronikk ute hos @altinget.bsky.social 📢 Her samler jeg noen tanker fra de siste månedenes forhandlingsteater knyttet til Russlands krig i Ukraina - og hvorfor Russland ikke vil avslutte krigføringen sin med det første. www.altinget.no/forsvar/arti...

(Åpen for alle) Jeg synes at norsk presse ofte glipper når det kommer nyhetssteg om eventuelle forhandlinger om krigen i Ukraina. Ofte synes jeg at dekningen mangler viktig kontekst om Russlands «forhandlingsdans». Heldigvis kan Altingets fantastiske spaltist @kaeggen.bsky.social gi god innsikt her

"Over several days in Lviv I didn’t meet anybody who believed that the Russian president wants to end the war, or that he will negotiate to do so in Istanbul. Ukrainian reasoning is straightforward: Vladimir Putin has never said he wants to end the war." www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

No show from Putin in IST. Zelenskyy is in this absurd position of having to go to any possible diplomatic meet just to not look like he's the one obstructing peace. www.ft.com/content/9a75...

⚡️Trump will skip Ukraine-Russia peace talks as Putin evades negotiations, US official says. U.S. President Donald Trump will not attend Ukraine-Russia peace talks to be held on May 15, an unnamed U.S. official said on May 14.

NEW: Russian officials continue to reiterate Putin's recent call to base future negotiations with Ukraine on the early 2022 Istanbul protocols that included Russian demands for Ukraine's complete capitulation. ⬇️ (1/4) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar051425

They know Putin is very unlikely to agree to a real ceasefire, but the symbolism vis-a-vis Trump matters. As long as Europe fears applying sufficient pressure on Russia, the best strategy is to arm Ukraine with everything it's got for as long as it takes, until Russian exhaustion or collapse.

Russia's promotion of WW2 and Soviet-era memory policy (@kariagam.bsky.social) and religious activity on Svalbard is now part of a trend aiming to reinforce Russia's narrative about its historic presence and rights on the archipelago. Excellent reporting, as always, by @thebarentsobserver.com.

Today, as Norway marks the 80th anniversary of the end of the German occupation during WWII, the Norwegian government has published its first-ever national security strategy — a symbolic and timely document that I look forward to reading in full 🇧🇻 www.regjeringen.no/en/dokumente...

📣 On May 26th, the Programme for Ukraine and Full-Spectrum Threats is hosting a seminar on Russia's occupation policy in Ukraine. We've gathered some excellent speakers, and there are still a few seats available if you're in Oslo. More info 👇 @thestudyofwar.bsky.social @unibirmingham.bsky.social

This absolutely cannot, under any circumstances, become normalized. This is the reality of Russia's occupation of Ukraine- don't ever look away.

Nobody can in good faith recommend Ukraine to take the ”deal” proposed by the US. Simple as that

Trump says he fears Putin ‘doesn’t want to stop the war’ after Zelenskyy meeting www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...

Instead of tanks — investment. Europe is shifting strategy: funding Ukraine’s defense industry instead of just sending weapons. A move to boost long-term production and avoid depleting their own stocks. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Gode kommentarer fra @pydstebo.bsky.social og @atlandkristian.bsky.social om Russlands 'påskevåpenhvile'. Bør sees som et PR-stunt og muligens et blidgjørende bein i USAs retning i det det ryktes om at USA vil anerkjenne Krym som russisk som del av Trumps 'fredsprosess'.1/ www.vg.no/nyheter/i/QM...

This performative humanitarianism is almost certainly designed as a response to Washington’s performative frustration — but it’s not even enough time for Ukrainians to bury the victims of some of the war’s most wanton attacks on civilians. on.ft.com/42pyWko

Trump confirmed Secretary Rubio's statement that the USA will "move on" if the ceasefire is not reached quickly: "If for some reason one of the parties makes it very difficult,we're just gonna say,’you're foolish,you fools…'& we're gonna just take a pass. But hopefully, we won't have to do that."

I dag har jeg en ny kronikk på trykk i @altinget.bsky.social hvor jeg skriver om russisk manipulering av informasjon som del av Kremls langsiktige strategi i jakten på sine stormaktsambisjoner. Åpen for alle 🙌

Veldig gøy å få være med på innspilling til Katastrofe, som nå ligger ut i sin helhet hos NRK. I siste episode diskuteres hybridkrigføring under kyndig ledelse av @andreaswahl.bsky.social.

1/2 Kort intervju hos @vgnett.bsky.social / @matteusk.bsky.social sammen med @atlandkristian.bsky.social om hvorfor en eventuell våpenhvileavtale med Russland 1) er vanskelig å tro vil overholdes, 2) krever at Ukraina har troverdige sikkerhetsgarantier i ryggen. www.vg.no/video/327686...

Putin forsøker igjen å fremstille Zelenskyjs regjering som årsaken til manglende "fredsavtale", foreslår å innsette overgangsstyre i Ukraina + nyvalg. Zelenskyj svarer med samme mynt: vi er klare for samtaler med Russland - uten Putin. Sånn møter man russisk informasjonskonfrontasjon.

Georgia yesterday.. 🇬🇪 "the ruling party, Georgian Dream, Mamuka Mdinaradze, announced the imminent tabling of legislation, referred to as the “successor parties law,” aimed at banning opposition groups that the ruling party deems “hostile”."

Georgia Approaches the Final Act | "What seemed mere pre-election rhetoric has now evolved into a full-blown political witch-hunt."