Today's most important read: "The 2015/16 migration crisis (on 🇷🇺 border with 🇳🇴 🇫🇮) can best be explained as strategic engineered migration and a pilot project of the Russian security services." By @kaeggen.bsky.social & Jyri Lavikainen

New article out in @ejisbisa.bsky.social ! In 2015–16, Russia’s FSB tested migration as a strategic tool in the High North, using state-orchestrated mobility to pressure neighbours, exploit humanitarian norms, and project influence short of war. Read the full article 👇 #OpenAccess #hybridwarfare

On November 11, 2025, @kaeggen.bsky.social will defend her PhD thesis “Russia’s Contemporary Grand Strategy: The Use of Information and Other Unconventional Means Towards the Nordic Region”. The defense is open to anyone interested. For time and place, see 👇 www.sv.uio.no/isv/forsknin...

📣 New article out in @defencestudies.bsky.social: "A strategy for the weak: the role of information confrontation in Russia’s grand strategy." Hopefully of interest to anyone seeking to understand Russia's view - and use - of the information domain!

📣 @siristrand.bsky.social og jeg har i dag en rykende fersk artikkel på trykk i tidsskriftet Internasjonal Politikk om russisk påvirkning i Norge og samspillet mellom tekniske (cyber) og psykologiske virkemidler i russiske informasjonsoperasjoner. Kan leses her 👇

Veldig god sak av @bergenstidende.bsky.social: "Havbunnen utenfor Bergen er full av rørledninger.. – Det er registrert sikk-sakk-kjøring over rørledninger, skip med russisk mannskap som senker farten, stopper opp eller beveger seg i farvann de ikke har noe å gjøre"

Reduced US support is not surprising, given the current US admin's approach to Ukraine and Russia. This has been ongoing for a while across fields since Trump's return. Yet the latest reporting on patriots and artillery is painful given the harsh summer facing UKR's military and civil society. 1/2

NEW: Russia conducted its largest combined strike series of the war on the night of June 28 to 29 by launching over 500 missiles and drones against Ukraine. Read more in the June 29. 2025 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar062925

Morning in Kyiv.

@drjademcglynn.bsky.social "Imagine being bombed like this while simultaneously being trolled by Moscow and D.C. that Russia is interested in negotiations ... for a ceasefire that the Kremlin says will only be temporary and only after Ukraine capitulates territories Russia cannot take militarily."

“Putin remains confident in Russia’s ultimate victory in Ukraine and is prepared to use military force at least through 2025.” U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency assessment, May 2025. armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...

Lavrov ups Russia's demands on Ukraine to include a ban on democratic elections. Do we get it yet?

Ny kronikk ute hos @altinget.bsky.social 📢 Her samler jeg noen tanker fra de siste månedenes forhandlingsteater knyttet til Russlands krig i Ukraina - og hvorfor Russland ikke vil avslutte krigføringen sin med det første. www.altinget.no/forsvar/arti...

(Åpen for alle) Jeg synes at norsk presse ofte glipper når det kommer nyhetssteg om eventuelle forhandlinger om krigen i Ukraina. Ofte synes jeg at dekningen mangler viktig kontekst om Russlands «forhandlingsdans». Heldigvis kan Altingets fantastiske spaltist @kaeggen.bsky.social gi god innsikt her

"Over several days in Lviv I didn’t meet anybody who believed that the Russian president wants to end the war, or that he will negotiate to do so in Istanbul. Ukrainian reasoning is straightforward: Vladimir Putin has never said he wants to end the war." www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

No show from Putin in IST. Zelenskyy is in this absurd position of having to go to any possible diplomatic meet just to not look like he's the one obstructing peace. www.ft.com/content/9a75...

⚡️Trump will skip Ukraine-Russia peace talks as Putin evades negotiations, US official says. U.S. President Donald Trump will not attend Ukraine-Russia peace talks to be held on May 15, an unnamed U.S. official said on May 14.

NEW: Russian officials continue to reiterate Putin's recent call to base future negotiations with Ukraine on the early 2022 Istanbul protocols that included Russian demands for Ukraine's complete capitulation. ⬇️ (1/4) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar051425

They know Putin is very unlikely to agree to a real ceasefire, but the symbolism vis-a-vis Trump matters. As long as Europe fears applying sufficient pressure on Russia, the best strategy is to arm Ukraine with everything it's got for as long as it takes, until Russian exhaustion or collapse.

Russia's promotion of WW2 and Soviet-era memory policy (@kariagam.bsky.social) and religious activity on Svalbard is now part of a trend aiming to reinforce Russia's narrative about its historic presence and rights on the archipelago. Excellent reporting, as always, by @thebarentsobserver.com.

Today, as Norway marks the 80th anniversary of the end of the German occupation during WWII, the Norwegian government has published its first-ever national security strategy — a symbolic and timely document that I look forward to reading in full 🇧🇻 www.regjeringen.no/en/dokumente...

📣 On May 26th, the Programme for Ukraine and Full-Spectrum Threats is hosting a seminar on Russia's occupation policy in Ukraine. We've gathered some excellent speakers, and there are still a few seats available if you're in Oslo. More info 👇 @thestudyofwar.bsky.social @unibirmingham.bsky.social

This absolutely cannot, under any circumstances, become normalized. This is the reality of Russia's occupation of Ukraine- don't ever look away.

Nobody can in good faith recommend Ukraine to take the ”deal” proposed by the US. Simple as that

Trump says he fears Putin ‘doesn’t want to stop the war’ after Zelenskyy meeting www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...

Instead of tanks — investment. Europe is shifting strategy: funding Ukraine’s defense industry instead of just sending weapons. A move to boost long-term production and avoid depleting their own stocks. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Gode kommentarer fra @pydstebo.bsky.social og @atlandkristian.bsky.social om Russlands 'påskevåpenhvile'. Bør sees som et PR-stunt og muligens et blidgjørende bein i USAs retning i det det ryktes om at USA vil anerkjenne Krym som russisk som del av Trumps 'fredsprosess'.1/ www.vg.no/nyheter/i/QM...

This performative humanitarianism is almost certainly designed as a response to Washington’s performative frustration — but it’s not even enough time for Ukrainians to bury the victims of some of the war’s most wanton attacks on civilians. on.ft.com/42pyWko

Trump confirmed Secretary Rubio's statement that the USA will "move on" if the ceasefire is not reached quickly: "If for some reason one of the parties makes it very difficult,we're just gonna say,’you're foolish,you fools…'& we're gonna just take a pass. But hopefully, we won't have to do that."

I dag har jeg en ny kronikk på trykk i @altinget.bsky.social hvor jeg skriver om russisk manipulering av informasjon som del av Kremls langsiktige strategi i jakten på sine stormaktsambisjoner. Åpen for alle 🙌

Veldig gøy å få være med på innspilling til Katastrofe, som nå ligger ut i sin helhet hos NRK. I siste episode diskuteres hybridkrigføring under kyndig ledelse av @andreaswahl.bsky.social.

1/2 Kort intervju hos @vgnett.bsky.social / @matteusk.bsky.social sammen med @atlandkristian.bsky.social om hvorfor en eventuell våpenhvileavtale med Russland 1) er vanskelig å tro vil overholdes, 2) krever at Ukraina har troverdige sikkerhetsgarantier i ryggen. www.vg.no/video/327686...

Putin forsøker igjen å fremstille Zelenskyjs regjering som årsaken til manglende "fredsavtale", foreslår å innsette overgangsstyre i Ukraina + nyvalg. Zelenskyj svarer med samme mynt: vi er klare for samtaler med Russland - uten Putin. Sånn møter man russisk informasjonskonfrontasjon.

Georgia yesterday.. 🇬🇪 "the ruling party, Georgian Dream, Mamuka Mdinaradze, announced the imminent tabling of legislation, referred to as the “successor parties law,” aimed at banning opposition groups that the ruling party deems “hostile”."

Georgia Approaches the Final Act | "What seemed mere pre-election rhetoric has now evolved into a full-blown political witch-hunt."

The results achieved in Saudi Arabia do not look like a quick path to a lasting and sustainable peace. It was indeed a technical round of negotiations, not a political one.

In Moscow, officials believe that Washington — which doesn’t view the exact dividing lines as a major priority — will pressure Kyiv to concede even more territory than Russia has been able to seize by force. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/23/p...

Extraordinary scenes in Serbia’s capital Belgrade right now. Around 500,000 people are on the streets in what may be the biggest protest in Serbian history. All demanding the resignation of President Vučić & his government. What began as a student protest is now a full democratic uprising. 🇷🇸

Ikke det jeg skriver oftest om, men noe jeg ofte lurer på: klarer Norge å ruste opp raskt nok? Alt skal skje raskere, men sjelden hører vi hva som konkret må gjøres. Jeg spurte kloke Kristine Farestvedt Nesse og resultatet ble kronikk i @aftenposten.no 👇 www.aftenposten.no/meninger/deb...

Let's just say Putin was more focused on highlighting how well his Kursk campaign was going, how a ceasefire would enable Ukrainians to leave Russian territory without being prosecuted for their crimes, and on asking the real "tough questions" about how to ensure war would not break out again..

Accepting the "idea" of a ceasefire is not accepting a ceasefire. As predicted, Russia is delaying. apnews.com/article/russ...

Deler noen veldig tidlige/umiddelbare betraktninger om informasjonen fra dagens samtaler mellom USA og Ukraina hos @vgnett.bsky.social sammen med Tor Bukkvoll og Palle Ydstebø. www.vg.no/nyheter/i/pP...

So far, reports from US-UKR talks aren’t too bad (ofc, compared to rock bottom). The question now: how will Russia respond—and how will Trump respond if (when?) Russia doesn’t agree/comply? Still waiting to hear anything on Russian concessions and security guarantees for Ukraine …

Really interesting article on the crafting of residents of occupied Donbas as "frontline Russians" in the years prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 👇

Takk for veldig hyggelige ord, @jettefc.bsky.social - og til @dagensnaeringsliv.bsky.social som tok turen innom for å slå av en prat om sikkerhetspolitikk, verden, livet og kvinnedagen!

Ukraine's Opposition Leaders Reject Holding Wartime Elections www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-op...

All in all a good day in terms of Europan action. EU countries set to agree on a rearmament plan to strengthen the union's defense capabilities and Norway pledged an additional 50 billion NOK (ca. 4.25 billion EUR) to Ukraine. 🇧🇻🇪🇺🇺🇦

”[D]eterrence requires visible demonstrations of resolve. Capability is meaningless if the adversary doubts our willingness to use it — and this is where Europe’s primary weakness lies.” A very important read by @frhoffmann.bsky.social about how essential it is for Europe to demonstrate resolve

I think Russian intelligence services cannot believe their good fortune at everything that is happening right now. This is a bonanza across the board. The vicious attack on Ukraine, nutters at the FBI, Gabbard at DNI, shredding of CI capabilities. A monumental tragedy for the West.

Spend a few minutes on this text by @lapatina.bsky.social —a brilliant journalist and sharp analyst who highlights what should be an obvious fact by now: the "U.S. is no longer on Ukraine's side."