[1/2] Three area closures for SS-N-23 SKIFF (Sineva) submarine-launched ballistic missile launch are in effect on 20-24 & 28 October 2025 (05:00-17:00 daily)

New details about Operation Spider Web.

Very sorry to hear about the passing of Vladimir Socor (1945-2025). His recent analyses of the Ukraine ceasefire negotiations were nothing short of brilliant. He will be missed.

"Russia, similar to the Soviet Union before it, sees diplomacy as a tool in its arsenal of war."

A bust of Lenin glowers over the square. Public signs are in Cyrillic script and the Russian flag flaps from buildings. This spot in Norway is a geopolitical quirk—for the West it could become a headache

The corresponding coastal warning (PRIP) for the Murmansk region says "MISSILE FIRINGS 20 TO 21 JUN".

Confirmed: Russian bombers were armed with cruise missiles and poised to bomb Ukrainian cities when they were destroyed by Ukrainian drones in Sunday’s audacious airbase attacks

The Russian MoD has now also confirmed the Ukrainian strikes. However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/

The U.S. military is doubling down in Northern Europe in a quest to make NATO more lethal.

Lively outside Andøya today. Looks like "Formidable Shield" is in progress, featuring a series of live-fire events in the coming days. Participating nations are Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, U.K., and US. More info at www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/N...

"(...) can Trump’s envoy, with business ties to a billionaire who built his wealth in Russia and is sanctioned by Ukraine, serve as a genuinely neutral mediator in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine?"

"Moscow regards a Black Sea ceasefire as an opportunity to reverse Ukraine’s successes in the maritime war" (Valdimir Socor).

Another good analysis by Vladimir Socor: "Moscow should be aware that any easing of sanctions by Washington would hardly benefit Russia, as long as the European Union continues to maintain these same sanctions."

Podcast (in Norwegian).

The Trump administration is not too fond of gender-neutral terms. It has now made the FAA reinstate the pre-December 2021 meaning of the abbreviation “NOTAM”…

On the changing pattern of Russian military activity in the High North (in Norwegian).

7/7 Read more in a new special report from ISW Russia Fellow Nataliya Bugayova: isw.pub/LessonsOfMinsk

***UPDATE*** Lot of #Russian navy movements to-from Mediterranean. Linked to or shaped by the situation in Syria (and Ukraine), but some may have been planned earlier. Expecting major withdrawal of equipment from Tartus What Tobruk and Al Burdi in Libya #OSINT with Damien Symons

What’s next for Russia in Syria?

New CEPA report on the changing landscape of Arctic security.