I missed this—Russia’s central bank held two REPO auctions, one for 1 week loan period and one for a 1 day loan period. 1 week: 3.230 trillion rubles 1 day: 1.450 trillion rubles total: 4.68 trillion rubles injected into the banking system. REPO is supposed to be an emergency mechanism!

Tomorrow, Ukraine will have indicted 1.25 million casualties upon the Russians.

Hidden unemployment is on the rise in Russia. One sixth of all workers for medium-sized businesses are only partially employed. 🤡

The share of trade with the outside world in Russia’s GDP has hit the levels of the late 1980s USSR. ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/10/d...

Evil. How will Ukrainians in the occupied territories vote? How will Ukrainians vote safely under Russian attack? How will Zelenskyy get around the constitutional prohibition on holding elections during wartime?

Hard currency income by Russian exporters continues to decline.

US HIRING AT RECESSION LEVELS: HIRING RATE AT 3.3%, MATCHING THE 2020 CRISIS AND NEAR A 13-YEAR LOW.

🚨 Trumps tariffs are now challengeable in the House of Representatives! Congress can terminate the tariffs issued by Trump by declaring the underlying “emergency” null and void. Speaker Johnson lost a vote on a rule to keep members from voting on tariffs. First vote tomorrow.

Where is Russia hiding its massive federal budget deficits? 1. Shifting expenses to January of the following year to make the deficit appear smaller than it actually is. 2. Shifting the federal deficit to the regional budgets, which exploded in 2025. open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...

Special elections tonight all swung towards Democrats compared to 2024. Virginia HD05: D+4 Virginia SD39: D+10 Oklahoma HD35: D+30 Trump is in deep trouble, which is why he’s trying to arrest his political opponents.

Final results in the Oklahoma #HD35 (Trump+58) special election: Dillon Travis (R)- 64.2% Luke Kruse (D)- 35.8% The Oklahoma Democrats put in a 30 point overperformance in rural Oklahoma!

Final results in the Virginia #SD39 (Harris+55) special election: Elizabeth Bennett-Parker (D)- 82.8% Julie Robben Linberry (R)- 17.2% Not only do the Democrats outperform Harris by 10 points, they also nearly match Spanberger's 66 point win here from November!

‼️ ‼️ Per Energy Frontline, Urals averaged $31.28 a barrel in January!!! The Russian budget calls for $59 a barrel. Seaborne exports of crude oil are down 11% in January, per S&P. Indian deliveries fell 55% last month alone! t.me/Energy_Front...

Russia’s artillery shell output increased 17 fold since 2021. -Estonian Intelligence

The Volgograd oil refinery is reportedly on fire.

Reported crude oil production in Russia continues to fall. Sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft are working!

Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) announces her reelection bid by showcasing a serious tremor. Collins hasn’t allocated any funding for Ukraine despite being Senate budget chair. Not sure if she has Parkinson’s or an essential tremor. Maine can’t afford 6 more years of shaking.

🤯 Wow! There are rumors that Republican Neal Dunn will resign from Congress immediately, leaving Republicans without a 218 seat majority. FL-02 only voted for Trump by +18, so a special election here would put the seat in play for Democrats.

This is the second-worst year for Republican retirements from the House since 1934.

Russia increased VAT by almost 25%. Russia is taxing far more small businesses than before, boosting revenues. Inflation is likely 15% or more in Russia, but the govt was forced to cut expenses by over 1.4%. Income plummeted by 11.6%, thanks to a -50.2% catastrophe in oil and gas income.

Russia is hiding large, advance expenses in January. Let’s compare 12 and 13 month deficits in trillions of rubles. Jan 23 - Dec 23: -3.485 Jan 24 - Dec 24: -3.472 Jan 25 - Dec 25: -5.645 Jan 23 - Jan 24: -3.609 Jan 24 - Jan 25: -5.178 ‼️ Jan 25 - Jan 26: -7.363 ‼️

Russia is in the process of destroying all small businesses, which employ 40% of its workforce.

The appreciation of gold is saving the NWF’s liquid assets from extinction. If gold was still valued at 5,000 rubles/gram, it would shave a 1.1 trillion rubles off of the value of the liquid assets.

‼️ After dipping back down slightly last week, REPO is up again in Russia! 3.230 trillion rubles were injected into the Russian banking system today. Maybe it’s because the bond auction failed last week for the first time in a long time? www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...

Pope Bob notably does not send generators and aid to Russia. A huge improvement over Pope Francis.

I like this graphic from Robin Brooks. Lukoil/Rosneft sanctions really bit into Russia’s oil revenues and lowered Urals price per barrel.

A famous Russian poem (not kidding). February: get out the ink and cry.

Russia is selling 228 bn rubles worth of foreign currency from the National Wealth Fund this month due to a collapse in oil/gas revenues. At this rate, half of the liquid assets will be gone by year end. minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-cen...

Notice how Republicans only put on pressure for an "energy cease fire" to save Russian refineries for their summer driving season. They were quiet while Russia plunged Ukraine into freezing dark for winter. And Republicans blocked the air defence funding to help get more Russian missiles through.

lol i'm sorry is that a 38 point swing from the presidential vote

There’s a crisis in Irkutsk Oblast: there’s no water or heat in Bodaibo for the 10th day straight. The temperature is -30 to -40 degrees Celsius, leaving 10,000 people to freeze. ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/06/v...

Sources inside the Ministry of Finance say that the deficit could be 10 trillion rubles this year. Time to turn on the printing press! The deficit in Jan alone was 1.718 trillion rubles. The electronic budget portal showed a deficit of 2.35 trillion rubles. ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/06/p...

Several think tanks warning of recession in Russia. youtu.be/YdMMFjMqcy0

‼️ Russia: “The first major Russian bank in the top 10 has become unprofitable due to multi-billion dollar loan defaults.” 👉 Moscow Credit Bank Which is “closely linked to Rosneft” ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/05/p...

Amodei is the 30th House Republican to announce his retirement this cycle.

Banks will have to save Russian metallurgical companies from bankruptcy… which will hurt the banks themselves. ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/04/r...

Russia cannot afford a runaway arms race. I am not as concerned. In fact, engaging them in an arms race may hasten the Russians’ demise.

‼️ ‼️ ‼️ Samolët, Russia’s largest real estate developer, asked the government for an emergency loan of 50 bn rubles to prevent default on its debt payments. I’ve been waiting for this for over a year. Samolët is insolvent!!!

A train station in Tambov Oblast, Russia, exploded as a train carrying oil derailed. 🚬

Oil and gas revenues plummeted 50% y/y in January to 393 bn rubles. This is the lowest value ever recorded in the duration of the full-scale invasion. 🔥

Republican Rep. Loudermilk (GA-11) has announced his retirement from Congress, another sign that Republicans are running for the exits.

The city of Belgorod, Russia, was dependent on a single line which has been severed, leading to a total blackout. It’s -4 Fahrenheit right now, or -20 Celsius.

Bloomberg notes that some volume of oil that India has refused is being sent to China. Revenues have slightly increased due to the rise in global oil prices, but the prices of Russian oil remain at very low levels. Urals are going for $37.84 to $40.34, slightly higher due to higher Brent prices.

“Russian War Spending May Be Maxed Out” “The official budget deficit surged last year, as did off-balance sheet military spending via the banking system and unpaid bills. That might be tough to sustain, especially with lower oil revenues.” theovershoot.co/p/russian-wa...

REPO today came in at 2.76 trillion, less than last week. That’s still massive, but it’s going down every week. Note that bond sales are pretty low, so this isn’t completely unexpected.

The second most unpopular Republican senator just tied her turkey neck to Trump before a highly competitive midterm election. Susan Collins is in deep trouble. She hasn’t even officially announced her reelection campaign yet.

Mortgage arrears in Russia continue to grow exponentially. And these numbers are an undercount.

Kommersant says that 587 branches of Russian banks are opening in the occupied territories. Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk are all getting VTB, Sber and PSB branches. These will all be destroyed or converted when they’re liberated. www.kommersant.ru/doc/8397926

Reuters reports that Gaddafi’s son was killed in Libya. RIP or whatever www.reuters.com/world/africa...

Issuance of preferential loans skyrocketed last month ahead of tightened qualification requirements. A whopping 81% of all mortgages issued in Russia were government-subsidized preferential loans.