Ternopil Before and After

Western Ukraine is under attack. Ternopil and Lviv were hit. Will assume Russians are aiming at gas and energy infrastructure. Paper tiger can only fight with civilians.

Settlements layout around Zaporizhzhia.

Deadliest SBS day ever.

The "death of modern war theory" is a strange paradox: two comparable armies have beaten each other down to a point where continuing the war should be impossible, yet the side with even a slight advantage keeps going because it cannot afford to stop.

At the end of every year Artillery leaving GSUA reports. Will return by February.

Lyman and Beyond The situation around Lyman is pretty straightforward: secure the flanks, cut the supply routes, and only then take the town. Everything else depends on that. Yarova and Yampil are the keys on the sides, and cutting the roads feeding Lyman is the other half of the job.

GSUA Barrages update 350 shellings using over 1500 munitions, that makes ~4 shells per barrage, significant drop from previously reported 8. It highlight a significant change in the war approach.

Another November KAB decline. Average numbers have dropped from 200 to 100 in a month. The Weather cant explain this drop.

Combined attacked focused on Kyiv this time. 405/430 Drones 6/6 Kalibr 6/9 Iskander 2/3 Kinzhal 0/1 Zirkon Drones and Missiles directly hit 13 locations, 44 more were damaged with debris. Numbers magically improves when enemy attack defended locations.

Dew point rule Gusts, Humidity, Percipitation to predict front behavior. Drones wont fly in a fog due to poor visibility: high humidity, minimal wind, no percipitation. Drones wont fly in a strong winds, that usually comes with stronger gusts, no matter the percepitation and visibility.

Magyar stats decryption here are SBS percentage of all the registered monthly hits. Jan: 20% — 55649 Feb: 18% — 53286 Mar: 18.5% — 64264 Apr: 19.5% — 63010 May: 21% — 63259 Jun: 31.5% — 62247 Jul: 36% — 64624 Aug: 35.5% — 60032 Sep: 35.5% — 66537 Oct: 33.5% — 78000*

1 for Borova 2 in Kupians 3 to Lyman

Terrarasha Avdiivka

The front has a limit. You cannot cover everything. Each army can only handle a certain capacity - men, logistics, command, and attention. Once you exceed it, you lose control and start wasting people. 🔽

Gorushko October - 10360 new records.

October in two pictures

GSUA Summary Over the month, Russians carried out 5378 attacks, expanded by 360km2 across all the fronts: capturing 253km2, graying out 106km2 at a cost of 31270 IvanZ. They attacked 239 different settlements, 41 of them for the first time, and 66 not mentioned since September.

Striking October

Donbas after Pokrovsk Dont expect big changes after Pokrovsk. Yeah its a hit but not a turning point. Just another town on the long road west. Russians will keep crawling 100-200 meters a day spreading pressure along the 60 km front slipping between defense points and grinding through positions.

The Green Belt Update. 23000km2: a death zone 450km in length and up to 85km deep.

Pantsyr-XS

Leaked russian missile prices 9М728 Iskander-K: ~ $1.5 M 9М729 Iskander-K ER: $1.4 – $1.8 M 3М14 Kalibr: ~ $2 M 3М-14С Kalibr: $2 – $2.3 M Kh-101: $2 – $2.4 M Product 506: $4.2 M 9М723 Iskander-M: $2.4 - $3 M 9-С-7760 Kinzhal: $4.5 M 3М22 Zirkon $5.2 – $5.6 M militarnyi.com/uk/articles/...

Shell army There is this idea that people below a certain level should not serve in the army, that they are too dumb for it. But it is not really about intelligence. It is about how complex the job is. Big armies always settle around the population median anyway. ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Carpet droning, precise ballistics - strikes evolving. 333/405 Drones 8/9 Iskander-K 6/11 Iskander-M 0/4 Kinzhal 2/4 Kh-59 12 missiles and 55 drones hit 26 locations, debris hit 19 more locations.

Ru gains after 30791 repelled attacks, 23421 dropped bombs. Total Extended: 2816km2; Captured: 2457km2; Grayed: 359km2; 149 settlements captured.

1/12: The “sponge” front: tempting to push, but drones make any movement highly dangerous. Doing nothing isn’t an option unless you have prepared, dispersed hideouts that soak attacks and save forces for later.

Rashanverse has no time dimension; Frontline isn't an exception, hence all time-based predictions consistently fail. With this and the Russians' recent dynamics in mind, let's explore how the Donbas offensive will evolve.

September in two pictures

SBS September

APCs almost disappeared from the stats Tanks are 2% and APC - only 1% of all the losses. "Loafs" and Bikes replaced them completely.

GSUA Summary Russians launched 5391 assaults at 228 settlements, 58 - never appeared in Septembers reports, 37 -appeared for the first time.

Striking September

Settlements constellation from small villages with less than 1000 people to 100 000+ cities. Settlements follow the rivers. Donbas is dominated by big stars, in the void of fields. The Haichun river is a natural Donbas border, with a better spread population.

ModRF published a map with captured 4714km2 in 2025. DeepState shows ~3500km2 for that period. 4727km2 for a year period and match the shape of the reported front. The initial frontline that matches russian has never exist. t.me/mod_russia/5...

Don't let russian slowdown fool you, they are probably going to regrouping, additional attacks needed to consolidate and secure gains. then they will decrease activity for a while but will return better prepared for another "round".

In positional warfare, seizing ground isn't enough - attackers must capture stable positions they can hold. This thread explains why those points turn tactical gains into lasting control - and why taking them often comes at a very high cost.

Heavy drone usage has significantly reshaped modern defensive tactics in Ukraine. For the AFU, adapting means balancing exposure risks with the need for flexibility along one of the world's longest active frontlines.

Record number of drones and their routes

Magyar's Birds' August Report

Comparison between GSUA ivanZ and Gorushko collected obituaries. Ratio used to be in 10 to 1, 8 to 1 and dropped to 4. This drop coexists with russian summer offensive and might be a side effect of it.

Striking August

GSUA August direction summary Over the month, Russians carried out 4997 attacks, capturing 452 km² at the cost of 28880 IvanZ. They attacked 225 different settlements, 49 of them for the first time, and 83 not mentioned since July.

Golden era

Russia focused on capturing Donetsk Oblast but managed to take only 5100 km² in 30 months. They aren't even halfway there with 6500km2 yet to be grind.

Bohdan Krotevych dropped this map and it's beyond bad.

Dobropillia front is getting worse Russians reached Kramatorsk road and basically cut the area off the big roads reaching the top of the watershed, with all the options to move forward. And watersheds matter - because roads usually follow them.

DeepState released an update on the Dobropillia direction, where Russians achieved significant progress over the past week, reaching the furthest AFU fortifications with DRG groups. The discreet nature of DS updates makes the published changes hit public like a bomb.

War Regional statistics: Selected area: 106182.80 km² Captured territory: 83799.67 km² Population in selected area: 2 269 331* Population in captured territory: 7 267 089* Total capture percentage: 78.9% Luhansk is captured by 99.4% *pre-war numbers

Lost Bosch painting