Iran's Hostage Strategy: Asymmetric Desperation in a Losing War Five days into SCO, Iran's retaliatory posture raises a critical question: what strategic objective is Tehran actually pursuing?

Drones and missiles Ukraine has to deal with on a daily basis.

SBS Summary

When you need to kill three bosses to advance to the next level.

War of Things: The Dawn of Event-Driven Warfare The fundamental nature of war has not changed. Men still fight, commanders still decide, and ground still matters. What has changed - irrevocably and with accelerating velocity - is the operating environment in which all of this happens.

GSUA Winter Summary

SBS February

February in two pictures

5270 attacks, 26310 losses for 216 km2 extension: 122km2 red, 94km2 grey. 4800 killed by SBS of 8432 reported (57%). Apparently attacks are getting smaller, and they got eliminated once start moving.

Striking February

Drones highway in the Volga lowlands.

It was hot on Pokrovsk today

February was the most consistent missile terror so far. 115 Ballistic missiles were used. Based on the launches: Iskander production is 3/4 a day. Kh-101 production wasn't abandoned, but rescaled to 3/4 same as Iskander.

Distributed combined attack focused at energy infrastructure as usual. The most noticeable news is Kh-22 that supposedly fall in Russia. 374/420 Drones (280 Shahed) 24/24 Kh-101 4/11 Iskander-M 2/2 Zircon 2/2 Kh-59 32 locations were hit, 15 more damaged with debris. Couple of missiles were lost.

Suriyak and DS maps comparison Suriyak territorial changes are -105km²: captured 216km², lost 321km². DS territorial changes are 190km²: captured 102km², grayed 88km².

Lights and ballistic strikes youtu.be/m5VHETDtQ_M?...

Traded Red for Black

Dots of War 1 per 5 Mediazona pixels

The most recent Mediazona update reinforced GSUA alignment as well as changed ratio from 1:6 to 1:5. When expected is 1:4 for 2024 with further decay. Now @en.zona.media is getting closer to the "wrong" expectations people argued about. Big discoveries awaits

200186 pixels @en.zona.media casually dropped +23K casualties update. 2026 - 291 2025 - 36205 2024 - 82265 2023 - 45439 2022 - 19674 Significant update for 2024. *GSUA 2024 is 430.320

The Incapable War Four years ago, when Russia rolled into Ukraine, there were no illusions about what the country's future held. Russian forces advanced alongside their propaganda machine in lockstep - dismantling AFU defenses, seizing major cities, and confidently predicting a swift conclusion.

Ukraine hit Kaleikino oil pumping station near Almetyevsk - largest pipeline node in russia. Ukraine already hit Unecha, and Russia damaged Ukrainian section of the pipeline. That should significantly limit russian export capacities

Sorties are a great weather indicator, but that is not always an option, as infantry often rely on advancing in bad weather. However, drone pressure does not end when the weather improves and the enemy does not want to move, as drones will focus on every shelter they find.

Back in November, when Pokrovsk was about to collapse, I gave this interview. It has never been published and would like to share it.

Longest sieges, since the first reported grey zone till 85% of the settlement got occupied. Vasiukivka lasted for 1091 days. Current longest is Synkivka - at North, as nobody cares. Chasiv Yar lasts for 622 days.

Territorial changes since June 2022

Compared Mediazona with GSUA. The scales are almost a perfect match, with a 1:6 ratio.

The War Above the Lines When military breakthrough becomes elusive and attrition dominates, the logical response is not to stop - but to expand the domain of contestation. If one cannot win the battle of territory, one contests the battle of cohesion.

Difference in losses density between the GSUA directions. Casualties density per km² by direction: - Pokrovsk: 132; - Kostiantynivka: 167; - Kramatorsk: 8; - Sloviansk: 18; - Lyman: 97;

It's hard to visualize 44 IvanZ per km² so i did that for Huliaipole.

War Between Skill and Luck There is a well-known framework developed by Michael Mauboussin that places activities on a spectrum between skill and luck. Chess sits near pure skill. Roulette sits near pure luck. Most sports fall somewhere in between. Where does war sit?

Mediazona losses in absolute and relative to 100K draftable male population (~35% of total) per region. Tuva already lost 1.5% of applicable male population.

Too many controversial topics that left me no choice but spam.

NATO Has Seen the Future - But It Will Not Fight It the Same Way Recent commentary suggesting that NATO is "unprepared" for the future of warfare often draws heavily on the Ukrainian battlefield as a predictive model.

The Grey Zone: War Without Lines The modern frontline in Ukraine has ceased to function as a clearly defined line. Instead, it has expanded into what can best be described as a grey zone - a layered, semi-contested space with a symbolic control.

"Russia Is Apparently Preparing a New Spring Offensive" At the beginning of almost every year, Russia takes an operational pause to reassess and refine its tactics for the coming campaign.

Light pollution maps 2020 and 2024

Southern SBS brigades were suspiciously quiet today.

SBS January on the map Birds are dominating the front with x3 sorties than average UAV brigade.

Another mass attack on energetics this time on Western Ukraine. Nothing special. 382/408 Drones 14/21 Kh-101 10/16 Kalibr 0/2 Zircon 19 locations were hit, 3 more damaged by debris. *2 missiles were lost. Probably, Zircon were lost as usual.

The Informal Economy of War Modern war operates on a multilayered wartime economy built around speed and necessity rather than legality or efficiency in peacetime terms.

Truce sequence

Russia launched a large-scale combined air attack on Ukraine using 71 missiles and 450 drones (around 300 Shaheds). 412/450 Drones 11/32 Iskander-M 20/28 Kh-101 3/7 Kh-22 4/4 Zirkon Impacts were recorded at 27 locations, 17 more sites damaged by debris.

GSUA January In January, Russian forces launched 5109 assaults across 193 settlements, extending their area of control by approximately 336 km². Of this, 231 km² were captured and 105 km² moved into the gray zone according to DeepState, while Suriyak estimates the total expansion at 429 km².

Striking January

Monthly missile attacks stats. Almost No Kh-101 in January. Yet only 69 of 132 missiles were intercepted, and the results could have been worse if Ukraine had not received PAC-3 missiles prior to the recent attacks.

The Illusion of Momentum: Pressure Without Breakthrough The frontline is not homogeneous, and the opposing sides are neither equal nor static. Territory alone does not decide the war, yet it remains an important bargaining chip. Crucially, it is the only reversible one.

Took @uacontrolmap.bsky.social and marked all the AFU units moved by more than 30km Since August 1. 104 were moved, 89 were added and 63 were removed. 162 didn't move, and 150 moved for less than 30km.

Asymmetrical Drone Warfare: Initiative Shift As Russia expands its area of control through pressure along the front, asymmetrical drone warfare has entered a critical phase.