The unbearable lightness of strategy. Jeremy Shapiro has an unrivaled ability to speak truth to bullshit. blueblaze.substack.com/p/the-thinke...

Ich bin einige Zeit abgetaucht, um ein Buch zu schreiben. Für alle, die besser verstehen wollen, vor welchen sicherheitspolitischen Herausforderungen wir stehen & wie wir uns aufstellen müssen, um unsere Souveränität und Freiheit auch in Zukunft garantieren zu können: www.rowohlt.de/buch/jana-pu...

Klaus Scharioth war ein wunderbarer Mensch, der sich mit seinem großen Herzen ganz besonders für den Nachwuchs eingesetzt hat. Er war Freund, Förderer und Mentor, für mich, aber noch viel mehr im Rahmen des Mercator Kollegs. Er wird sehr fehlen. ata-dag.de/aktuelles/na...

Weder Trumps Analyse noch sein Ziel haben sich verändert. Geändert haben sich nur seine taktischen Manöver – nicht die Richtung, in die er blickt. Trump teilt weiterhin nicht die europäische Sicht auf Ursachen und Folgen des Ukrainekriegs für Europas Sicherheit. www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu...

Ceci n‘est pas un withdrawal... „This is not an American withdrawal from Europe or a signal of lessened commitment to NATO and Article 5. Rather this is a positive sign of increased European capability and responsibility.“ www.europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewP...

Es ist zwar nur eine Stunde und ich will mich auch nicht anstellen, aber diese Zeitverschiebung macht mich immer noch kirre.

In joint anti-submarine warfare drills during the Joint Sea-2025 exercises near Vladivostok, 🇨🇳CHN and 🇷🇺 RUS forces “linked their communications & shared hydro-meteorological and air-sea tracks in real time. The goal, according to 🇨🇳 state media, was to leave deep-diving subs with nowhere to hide.”

Report from @TGehrke_and @jankaoertel calling for the EU to use the anti coercion instrument against China over rare earths Points to chokepoints Europe could use: -older DUV machines -airplane components -high precision bearings -powdered superalloys

Treffen zwischen Trump&Putin in Ungarn - und ein Mittelfinger an die EU. Denn Putin müsste verhaftet werden. Dass die Mongolei Putin nicht verhaftet hat - geschenkt, eingekeilt zwischen 🇨🇳 und 🇷🇺 . Hier aber führen drei Autokraten die internationale Strafgerichtbarkeit und die EU vor.

Da kann die Bundeswehr noch so oft drauf verweisen, dass sie für den "militärischen Anteil an der Gesamtverteidigung des Landes" zuständig ist - vom zivilen Anteil (NICHT den zivilen Unterstützungsleistungen für die Bundeswehr!) bleibt weiterhin wenig zu sehen.

What I find most telling is that Trump said to Stubb: „Maybe you should throw 'em out of NATO frankly.“ He says YOU, not WE. And that is not a coincidence. Trumps talks about NATO as a third party all the time. www.reuters.com/business/aer...

And here we go. I never wrote this article, and yet it is cited here. www.liberalbriefs.com/geopolitics/... And of course, it sounds so plausible, I seriously checked whether I had forgotten it, or the footnote was slightly wrong. #AIisnotresearch

To my fellow French friends (and everybody who claims to understand French politics): how likely is it that France will see early PRESIDENTIAL elections? (Something that I was told would never happen. But this was before today). So?

We at @ecfr.eu are very lucky to host @abarbashin.bsky.social as visiting fellow in Berlin. He has listened to Putin at Valdai for us, so that you don’t have to. You can find his take here ➡️ Enemy number one: What Putin’s foreign policy speech says about Europe: ecfr.eu/article/enem...

Und hier dann auch mit dem richtigen Link. Geht um Putins hybride Angriffe und was sie bezwecken sollen. www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu...

Ich habe mit der Geoeconomics Kolumne des Handelsblatts eine Weile pausiert, weil ich mir über den Sommer ein Sabbatical genommen habe, um andere Dinge voranzutreiben. Jetzt bin ich wieder mit im Autorenteam. My latest. www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolu.

The full text of Merz oped on Russian assets is available here without FT subscription:

„The assumption that ego management can be transmuted into lasting policy gains is wrong.“ My colleague Jeremy Shapiro has it exactly right. www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Putin just announced that Russia is ready to comply with the quant. limits of #NewSTART for one year after its expiry www.kommersant.ru/doc/8058884?...

Still the best explanation of Russian tactics and the difficulty of deterrence. From: Yes, Prime Minister.

Qatar has now been bombed by both Iran and Israel, while hosting a major US base. This has serious implications on the meaning - or lack thereof - of hosting US military as well as just how inconvenient it is to be a mediator in this day and age.

On the DoD security assistance cuts to Europe, there is a reasonable case that US sec assistance should not be going to European Union countries. I think the aid was justified given Russia's invasion but a phase out is a sensible. The EU is wealthy and aid s/d largely go to poorer countries.

Just in case you like in-depth analytical angle on Russia, think about donating to ridl.io ridl.io/donate/

[email protected] calls for immediate support, otherwise they are going to crash. I got to say - they are the best independent Russian media that does extensive coverage of everything that you need to know about Russia. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

In Helsinki, the court case against the #EagleS captain and 1st and 2nd officers started yesterday. Iltalehti reports that 🇫🇮 police wiretapped the crew after detaining them and intercepted instructions by the operator to tamper with evidence: www.iltalehti.fi/kotimaa/a/f4... (Google transl. text)

Time to re-watch Borgen.

Putin hat in Alaska versucht, das Thema Ukraine gegenüber Trump nicht als ausschlaggebend für US-Russland-Beziehungen zu präsentieren. Für Trump ist die bilaterale Beziehung zu Putin etwas, das er gerne verbessern würde. Die Ukraine ist dabei ein Hindernis. Er will einen Deal, um sagen zu können,

„We have a land war on European continent. We are fully dependent on US. None of the EU members was ready to risk further escalation“. The way @sabineweyand.bsky.social explains EU-US-deal is exactly right. She explains EU‘s trade-offs & rationale — and doesn‘t put lipstick on a pig. (SZ-Dossier)

Interesting development in Germany, where the developer of a large offshore wind farm has abandoned its plans to use wind turbines from China in favour of a European solution. The project was seen as a litmus test for the new German government's approach to China. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

post-Alaska follow-up on yday's thread: #Putin visibly content w/ red-carpet treatment & no immediate threat of #US sanctions. Trump delighted by the optics of a mtg of two superpowers. Contrast w/ how he treated Zelenskyy in the Oval Office could hardly be higher /1

The #Alaska meeting was a partial but significant victory for #Putin. He secured diplomatic rehabilitation from the U.S. president, whom he manipulated with ease, and demonstrated that he will not yield to pressure—even from #Washington.

Says Putin, the expert for fair and free elections.

"We expect that Kyiv and the European capitals will perceive all of this in a constructive manner and will not create any obstacles. That they will not attempt to disrupt the emerging progress through provocation or behind-the-scenes intrigue." And the US president is just standing there...

Just watched yesterday’s remarks and it is beyond me how anybody can still pretend that NATO is fine. Trump says NATO „owes US $2 billion“ and he clearly sees no value in having Europeans at the table with Putin. www.youtube.com/live/Lbuhxmt...

On top of organising the Europeans - US video call, Merz invites Selenskyj to Berlin for the closer coordination.

Is it just me who gets strong Gotham City vibes and thinks of Nolan‘s Batman trilogy?

Aside from the fact that this Putin - Trump summit is taking place over 6 months into Trump’s presidency, this is essentially what most expected for Trump’s second term: A one on one with Putin without Ukraine and EU in the room, unclear agenda and major risks for Ukraine

For Putin Ukraine is more important than Russia‘s relationship with the US. For Trump the relationship with Russia is more important than Ukraine.

Schon komisch, dass es Wörter gibt, bei denen ich mir nie merken kann, wie man sie richtig schreibt, obwohl ich es schon 1000fach nachgeschaut habe. Eine Art partielle Dyslexie. Bei mir z.B. beim Wort „rhetorisch“. Kennt das noch wer?

What happens when he discovers the rest of Medvedev’s tweets?

The EU’s acceptance of Japan-style 15 percent tariffs—and its decision not to use tariffs or anti-coercion instruments as a retaliatory measure—says less about the bloc’s economic strength relative to the U.S. and more about its reliance on the U.S. as a net security provider.

Crisis and control in Gaza and the West Bank: ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

More batshit crazy stuff from the State Department

Das Gesetz, das faktisch das System der Anti-Korruptionsbehörden NABU und SAPO zerstört, ist ein ziemlicher f* up. Oder ein Schuss in den eigenen Fuß, um es diplomatischer zu sagen. ukrainian-studies.ca/2023/04/12/t...

What could possibly go wrong? www.newsweek.com/russia-trump...

This one will go down in history of journalism, and it's appropriately ironic that it's a small-c conservatism outlet that's been excusing GOP and big money for decades that comes out swinging at Trump like almost nobody else.

Noise cancelling AirPods in der S-Bahn. Unbezahlbar.

What the hell are secondary tariffs?

Can confirm that this has been read by pretty much every official involved in working out what to do. Also on the US side.

Wie schon bei der Kanzlerwahl fragt man sich, ob da eigentlich vorher niemand miteinander redet?