In this week's podcast, @jyshapiro.bsky.social, @jkobzova.bsky.social and Jim O’Brien analyze the implications of these developments, including the potential impact on global energy strategies and the conflict’s trajectory. https://ecfr.eu/podcasts/episode/ukraine-russia-and-trumps-sanctions-gamble/

Note to those who are already celebrating yet another Trump’s u-turn: on #Ukraine the key message here is that the #U.S. will do this only if and when the Europeans impose the tariffs first.

Continued my annual tradition of writing for @ecfr.eu on Russia’s local elections. The Kremlin uses these votes to test what may happen in the real campaigns In 2025 we saw the growing role of war veterans—now entering regional parliaments and expected to fill the Duma in 2026 ecfr.eu/article/fro...

Still one of the best analyses of what #Russia’s recent local elections mean for the west, by @kominmo.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu

As the polling stations in #Moldova close, here's a reminder from my @ecfr.eu colleagues @gvalodskaite.bsky.social and Leo Litra on what's at stake at this election: ecfr.eu/article/love...

#UNGA80 🧵 1/ Today, the UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Ukraine. In our latest podcast episode, Mark Leonard and @jkobzova.bsky.social focused on the key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine during the summer. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

In the war in #Ukraine, “dog days” doesn’t equal “inactivity”. As #UNGA starts in full swing, here’s a recap of what’s been happening in & around Ukraine over the summer and what that means for Europe and the U.S. (spoiler alert: increasing transatlantic rift).

Still in shock. I remember Andriy back from the EuroMaidan days, as the “kommandant” of Maidan. RIP

also, I think that this week, it's quite appropriate to repost this post-mortem on #Minsk agreements written by my brilliant ex-colleague from @ecfr.eu @dumoulinme.bsky.social who has direct experience from those talks. ecfr.eu/article/ukra...

Per @financialtimes.com, a European diplomat described #Russia’s insistence on involving #China “a WTF moment”. Frankly, I had such moment when I heard that Witkoff really believed that Moscow would agree to “Art 5-like security guarantees” for #Ukraine 🤷🏽‍♀️ www.ft.com/content/3851...

One thing we didn’t hear from the Europeans though is the threat of more pressure on Russia if there’s no ceasefire or a deal. They explicitly mentioned such option in their post-Alaska statement on Saturday — yet no one mentioned it during the press mtg w/ Trump.

US-Ukraine-European leaders' mtg is still ongoing, so any outcomes TBC. But Kyiv & EU already sent a clear message to both Trump & Russia: #Ukraine is not alone and Europe is serious about own responsibility for how the war ends & how security in #Europe is ensured.

post-Alaska follow-up on yday's thread: #Putin visibly content w/ red-carpet treatment & no immediate threat of #US sanctions. Trump delighted by the optics of a mtg of two superpowers. Contrast w/ how he treated Zelenskyy in the Oval Office could hardly be higher /1

Putin's international isolation effectively ends today. But it's unlikely that he gets what he wants on #Ukraine in Alaska. Bilateral US-RU deals are possible (and likely) - yet Kyiv & the rest of Europe have a role to play. Without them, no deal is really possible.

🎧Another week, another NEW episode of the World in 30 Minutes. This week Mark Leonard is joined by @jkobzova.bsky.social and @camillegrand.bsky.social to discuss ECFR’s new European Security programme and the war in Ukraine. 📲Listen, share and subscribe! bit.ly/464YzJl

@nicupopescu.bsky.social is joined in conversation by Dmytro Kuleba and @jkobzova.bsky.social to discuss the new European Security Initiative #ACM25 Here are some key moments from the talk🧵🧵🧵

Great to be launching @ecfr.eu new European Security Programme at ECFR’s annual council meeting, this time in Warsaw, with @nicupopescu.bsky.social and @dmytrokuleba.bsky.social @camillegrand.bsky.social #ACM2025

💔 More than three years under fire: our data show where & when Kyiv suffers the most strikes during the war in Russia. We calculated how Russia terrorized the capital of Ukraine and its civilian population. Read more in our analytics below ⬇️ #Ukraine #Kyiv #Russia texty.org.ua/articles/115348/

Tune in today to discuss Trump, Europe and our response to #Ukraine

Self-promotion alert: we argue with @camillegrand.bsky.social & @nicupopescu.bsky.social that w/ less US attention & resources, the Europeans are Kyiv's key partner. They need a shared plan to promote joint security, map out Kyiv’s future EU integration & stabilise the country domestically.

'With a united European front investing in its capacity to help Ukraine protect European security, Europeans could strengthen Ukraine’s hand well enough to reach some kind of pacification of the conflict', write @jkobzova.bsky.social and @nicupopescu.bsky.social in a new commentary buff.ly/20iqCfv

Explaining Trump’s offer for #Ukraine - this time in Slovak

Tomorrow marks the 100th day of Trump’s second term, and Ukraine’s war rages on. Can Europe and Kyiv stop a peace deal on Russia’s terms? Mark Leonard and @jkobzova.bsky.social discuss last-minute diplomacy and what’s next. 🎧 Listen here

Pope Francis’ farewell gift

Ukraine said Russian attacks were continuing after Vladimir Putin ordered his army to suspend combat operations in Ukraine over the Easter holiday this weekend. “Russian assault operations continue on several frontline sectors, and Russian artillery fire has not subsided.” www.ft.com/content/77a7...

Happy Moskva sinking anniversary to those who celebrate

This is what “partial ceasefire” in the sphere of energy looks like in reality: #Russia may target #Ukraine’s power plants less frequently — but has doubled down on killing Ukrainians, including children. A week ago, it struck Kryvyi Rih; this time, it’s Sumy.

Hugely important. ‘Hegseth’s guidance acknowledges that the US is unlikely to provide substantial, if any, support to Europe in the case of Russian military advances, noting that Washington intends to push NATO allies to take primary defense of the region’ www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

good morning, how is that ceasefire between #Russia and #Ukraine going? www.reuters.com/world/europe...

I'm no lawyer, but it seems like discussing war plans in Signal outside a SCIF is maybe just a little bit worse than using a private server to send emails that weren't even marked as classified. But what do I know.

I hope everyone is reassured that NATO’s most important member is potentially adopting policies and decisions based on the beliefs or statements of an ICC-wanted individuals like Putin.

One hour into the energy ceasefire

Trump wanted an all encompassing ceasefire - to which #Ukraine agreed to last week. Instead, Putin offered Trump the possibility of a limited ceasefire — an idea which was repeatedly discussed in the past, including last summer. So much for the art of the deal.

Surely those nasty shopping centres were a threat to Russia's security, leaving the Kremlin no other option but to torch them 🤦‍♀️. Just reposing this here while the US president seems to think that by appeasing #Russia in #Ukraine, somehow, miraculously, peace will erupt in Europe the next day.

but we can still remain seriously concerned; potentially even gravely concerned.

You don’t know who we just disappeared to El Salvador. Think about that.

Ceasefire à la Putin: “totally ok to have a ceasefire if the other side stops defending itself and makes itself even more vulnerable to our future military advances”

One might think that the “root cause” is Putin himself but I guess that’s not what Putin had in mind.

“The best-case scenario is that Europeans ensure Europe’s security with less America; in the worst case, Europeans will need to ensure their security with no America at all” — Obligatory weekend reading by @ecfr.eu @nicupopescu.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/the-...

On Friday @dumoulinme.bsky.social , @jkobzova.bsky.social , @gresselgustav.bsky.social & Leo Litra discussed what the pause in US military aid means for #Ukraine. How can Europe step up to ensure 🇺🇦 is not left without the “cards” it needs? (Re-)watch the webinar here⬇️

The fact I spent last night bombing Ukraine just shows they don't want peace.

This is tomorrow i.e. possibly 2-3 more bad news/betrayals of #Ukraine away. Tune in if you want to hear my smart colleagues explain the military situation and the mood in #Kyiv. No need to listen to my rambling but theirs is well worth it.

Champagne popping in the Kremlin

Now would be about as good time as one gets for Europe to take all the seized russian assets and use them for #Ukraine

Looking for a friend - how do I unsee things and forget this video ever existed ?

Elon, you couldn’t reach the barren landscape of Mars soon enough

not sure that was the US intention but as the saying goes, when life gives you lemons, make lemonade!

If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck it is a duck.

Spare a thought for my home country #Slovakia, not invited to either of the 2 Paris mtgs, floating out in the outer space of the EU and NATO, with Viktor Orban remaining PM Fico’s government’s only EU friend. Entirely Fico’s own making - and w/ half the country entirely against this.

Negotiations 1.0: if one side is overly happy already after the first round, you might want to rethink your negotiation tactics