From “good” to “not good” — and how to get there faster. The weaker Moscow’s hand is on #Ukraine, European security, energy or defence, the higher the chances for Europe to escape yet another Faustian bargain with #Russia.

Russia is reaping the rewards from Trump’s war in Iran, but the benefits will likely not extend beyond the short term. @jkobzova.bsky.social explains how Europeans can make the long term arrive more quickly: https://bit.ly/4tK0sDN

An update on #Ukraine — and how Trump’s war on #Iran clearly doesn’t help.

Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the time is to fight back, write Will Brown, @jkobzova.bsky.social, @nicupopescu.bsky.social and José Ignacio Torreblanca. bit.ly/4bebWIe

Analysis by @jbdacey.bsky.social, Ellie Geranmayeh, @hlovatt.bsky.social, @cinziabianco.bsky.social, Majda Ruge, @asliaydintasbas.bsky.social, @jkobzova.bsky.social & @ajwsmall.bsky.social 👇️ ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

Not to comment on the substance of the plan but "reverse enlargement" sounds a bit weird. I mean, technically, the reversal of enlargement is...shrinking...or...reducing? Ahem www.politico.eu/article/5-st...

Please have a look - sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words.

Alert: champagne popping in the Kremlin

This is not so say that Kyiv is winning — it’s to say that much more can be done for Russia to feel the pain and costs of Putin’s longest war. 4 years since his 3 day “operation” began, Putin is still far from reaching his goals.

🎧 New Week, New episode! @markhleonard.bsky.social is joined by @jkobzova.bsky.social, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Jana Kobzová, Andrew Small and Alex Vines to discuss what challenges Europe should focus on in 2026. What dynamic political shifts might we see this year? https://bit.ly/4jALdcw

One would think that by now, my points are kind of obvious and yet here we are: 10 points the Europeans need to take into account when asking for a seat at the table on #Ukraine: ecfr.eu/article/no-c...

Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare (by @jkobzova.bsky.social) ecfr.eu/article/what...

Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. @jkobzova.bsky.social outlines how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare ⬇️ ecfr.eu/article/what...

Jim O’Brien does most of the eloquent speaking-I just added why the plan won’t work in the current form & why it’s dangerous for #Europe’s own security. Btw:for Moscow, the phrase “all ambiguities of the last 30 yrs” in point #2 is the new version of “root causes”, i.e.same demands as in Dec 2021.

In this week's podcast, @jyshapiro.bsky.social, @jkobzova.bsky.social and Jim O’Brien analyze the implications of these developments, including the potential impact on global energy strategies and the conflict’s trajectory. https://ecfr.eu/podcasts/episode/ukraine-russia-and-trumps-sanctions-gamble/

Note to those who are already celebrating yet another Trump’s u-turn: on #Ukraine the key message here is that the #U.S. will do this only if and when the Europeans impose the tariffs first.

Continued my annual tradition of writing for @ecfr.eu on Russia’s local elections. The Kremlin uses these votes to test what may happen in the real campaigns In 2025 we saw the growing role of war veterans—now entering regional parliaments and expected to fill the Duma in 2026 ecfr.eu/article/fro...

Still one of the best analyses of what #Russia’s recent local elections mean for the west, by @kominmo.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu

As the polling stations in #Moldova close, here's a reminder from my @ecfr.eu colleagues @gvalodskaite.bsky.social and Leo Litra on what's at stake at this election: ecfr.eu/article/love...

#UNGA80 🧵 1/ Today, the UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Ukraine. In our latest podcast episode, Mark Leonard and @jkobzova.bsky.social focused on the key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine during the summer. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

In the war in #Ukraine, “dog days” doesn’t equal “inactivity”. As #UNGA starts in full swing, here’s a recap of what’s been happening in & around Ukraine over the summer and what that means for Europe and the U.S. (spoiler alert: increasing transatlantic rift).

Still in shock. I remember Andriy back from the EuroMaidan days, as the “kommandant” of Maidan. RIP

also, I think that this week, it's quite appropriate to repost this post-mortem on #Minsk agreements written by my brilliant ex-colleague from @ecfr.eu @dumoulinme.bsky.social who has direct experience from those talks. ecfr.eu/article/ukra...

Per @financialtimes.com, a European diplomat described #Russia’s insistence on involving #China “a WTF moment”. Frankly, I had such moment when I heard that Witkoff really believed that Moscow would agree to “Art 5-like security guarantees” for #Ukraine 🤷🏽‍♀️ www.ft.com/content/3851...

One thing we didn’t hear from the Europeans though is the threat of more pressure on Russia if there’s no ceasefire or a deal. They explicitly mentioned such option in their post-Alaska statement on Saturday — yet no one mentioned it during the press mtg w/ Trump.

US-Ukraine-European leaders' mtg is still ongoing, so any outcomes TBC. But Kyiv & EU already sent a clear message to both Trump & Russia: #Ukraine is not alone and Europe is serious about own responsibility for how the war ends & how security in #Europe is ensured.

post-Alaska follow-up on yday's thread: #Putin visibly content w/ red-carpet treatment & no immediate threat of #US sanctions. Trump delighted by the optics of a mtg of two superpowers. Contrast w/ how he treated Zelenskyy in the Oval Office could hardly be higher /1

Putin's international isolation effectively ends today. But it's unlikely that he gets what he wants on #Ukraine in Alaska. Bilateral US-RU deals are possible (and likely) - yet Kyiv & the rest of Europe have a role to play. Without them, no deal is really possible.

🎧Another week, another NEW episode of the World in 30 Minutes. This week Mark Leonard is joined by @jkobzova.bsky.social and @camillegrand.bsky.social to discuss ECFR’s new European Security programme and the war in Ukraine. 📲Listen, share and subscribe! bit.ly/464YzJl

@nicupopescu.bsky.social is joined in conversation by Dmytro Kuleba and @jkobzova.bsky.social to discuss the new European Security Initiative #ACM25 Here are some key moments from the talk🧵🧵🧵

Great to be launching @ecfr.eu new European Security Programme at ECFR’s annual council meeting, this time in Warsaw, with @nicupopescu.bsky.social and @dmytrokuleba.bsky.social @camillegrand.bsky.social #ACM2025

💔 More than three years under fire: our data show where & when Kyiv suffers the most strikes during the war in Russia. We calculated how Russia terrorized the capital of Ukraine and its civilian population. Read more in our analytics below ⬇️ #Ukraine #Kyiv #Russia texty.org.ua/articles/115348/

Tune in today to discuss Trump, Europe and our response to #Ukraine

Self-promotion alert: we argue with @camillegrand.bsky.social & @nicupopescu.bsky.social that w/ less US attention & resources, the Europeans are Kyiv's key partner. They need a shared plan to promote joint security, map out Kyiv’s future EU integration & stabilise the country domestically.

'With a united European front investing in its capacity to help Ukraine protect European security, Europeans could strengthen Ukraine’s hand well enough to reach some kind of pacification of the conflict', write @jkobzova.bsky.social and @nicupopescu.bsky.social in a new commentary buff.ly/20iqCfv

Explaining Trump’s offer for #Ukraine - this time in Slovak

Tomorrow marks the 100th day of Trump’s second term, and Ukraine’s war rages on. Can Europe and Kyiv stop a peace deal on Russia’s terms? Mark Leonard and @jkobzova.bsky.social discuss last-minute diplomacy and what’s next. 🎧 Listen here

Pope Francis’ farewell gift

Ukraine said Russian attacks were continuing after Vladimir Putin ordered his army to suspend combat operations in Ukraine over the Easter holiday this weekend. “Russian assault operations continue on several frontline sectors, and Russian artillery fire has not subsided.” www.ft.com/content/77a7...

Happy Moskva sinking anniversary to those who celebrate

This is what “partial ceasefire” in the sphere of energy looks like in reality: #Russia may target #Ukraine’s power plants less frequently — but has doubled down on killing Ukrainians, including children. A week ago, it struck Kryvyi Rih; this time, it’s Sumy.

good morning, how is that ceasefire between #Russia and #Ukraine going? www.reuters.com/world/europe...

I'm no lawyer, but it seems like discussing war plans in Signal outside a SCIF is maybe just a little bit worse than using a private server to send emails that weren't even marked as classified. But what do I know.

I hope everyone is reassured that NATO’s most important member is potentially adopting policies and decisions based on the beliefs or statements of an ICC-wanted individuals like Putin.

One hour into the energy ceasefire

Trump wanted an all encompassing ceasefire - to which #Ukraine agreed to last week. Instead, Putin offered Trump the possibility of a limited ceasefire — an idea which was repeatedly discussed in the past, including last summer. So much for the art of the deal.

Surely those nasty shopping centres were a threat to Russia's security, leaving the Kremlin no other option but to torch them 🤦‍♀️. Just reposing this here while the US president seems to think that by appeasing #Russia in #Ukraine, somehow, miraculously, peace will erupt in Europe the next day.

but we can still remain seriously concerned; potentially even gravely concerned.

You don’t know who we just disappeared to El Salvador. Think about that.