Beth Oppenheim @ecfr.eu: Europeans should oppose renewed military intervention and press the case for diplomacy. Together with Arab states, they should play on Trump’s desire for deal-making to show him that more military action will not serve his agenda of regional peace. ecfr.eu/article/sell...

Trump's economic development plan for New Gaza can be traced back to his first presidency. It also includes ideas from US-Israeli security companies & Egypt. Mega🧵🧵 In 2019, the White House developed a 21-slide PPT presentation with ideas to support Gaza's economic future.

@hlovatt.bsky.social outlines a Board of Peace structure proposed by Trump in Davos. "The mixture of private investment funds with American power and geopolitics, combined with likely opaque decision-making and is a recipe for kleptocratic oligarchy." 📌 Check out more: https://bit.ly/4rarkvA

My longer read for @ecfr.eu on what Trump's Board of Peace means for Gaza, Europe's quest for strategic autonomy, and the future of the global order: ecfr.eu/article/welc...

Canada’s prime minister on the rupture of the old world order and the need of a new values-based realism: “The powerful have their power. But we have something too – the capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build our strength at home, and to act together.” www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/spee...

Members of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), which will report to the Board of Peace via High Representative Nikolay Mladenov, were announced last week. For a full breakdown, visit @ecfr.eu's Mapping Palestinian Politics project 👇 ecfr.eu/special/mapp...

With major Arab and Muslim states backing the BoP, Europeans are now grappling with the dilemma of whether to join, given concerns over its undermining of the UN and issues with its mandate/scope; vs the desire to get the US back onside, avoid tariffs, stay in the mix, etc. This is a false choice.🧵

Trump’s Board of Peace violates the Palestinians’ right to sovereignty in their own land. But it’s not really about Gaza at all . It is about Trump giving himself imperial power to replace the UN globally with his hand-picked friends and family, to make money and to even choose his own successor

My best effort at understanding Trump's Board of Peace and its constituent parts. This is the Trump Organisation that the UK, Europe and Arab countries are being asked to buy into as an alternative to the UN. Understandably, many are hesitant.

What to make of the Palestinian National Committee for the Administration of Gaza? Its members are technocrats through and through drawing from the business, academic and NGO sectors, and the PA administration. Many come from notable Gazan families. t.co/AKofZ3qvR7

“Palantir is working on a tool for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) that populates a map with potential deportation targets, brings up a dossier on each person, and provides a “confidence score” on the person’s current address,”

The focus is currently on the Trump-run Board of Peace. Here is the Palestinian dimension, with 11/15 names of the new National Committee for Gaza which I have so far visually confirmed*: t.co/AKofZ3qvR7

🎧 Following early December's Doha Forum, Mark Leonard brings together Ellie Geranmayeh and @hlovatt.bsky.social to discuss the geopolitical changes and diplomatic efforts shaping Middle Eastern politics, from Gaza's fragile future and Iran's nuclear conundrum. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

In case you need them, here are some reasons not to read the new national security strategy open.substack.com/pub/blueblaz...

✍️ Squeezed by a brutal occupation, the dysfunctionality of the PA and the broader political system is apparent to all and each want a different fix. What is often ignored in this is what Palestinians want. @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/publication/...

Political renewal is needed to argue Palestinian positions internationally, build consensus and apply pressure on actors that deviate from this. Until Palestinians have legitimate institutions that speak for them, some will be driven to violence to make themselves heard. ecfr.eu/publication/...

Backed by far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, the settler movement seeks to incorporate the West Bank, Gaza and, at its most extreme interpretation, parts of Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, into Israel. ecfr.eu/publication/...

Big & important new @ecfr.eu read: Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics - by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrmena.bsky.social

A very interesting new @ecfr.eu report about countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa by @willbrownecfr.bsky.social. I am glad to see that the report really underlines one of my recent pet peeves: The need to go on the offensive on cyber.+

✍️ Europeans should capitalise on the Polisario’s willingness to engage in renewed negotiations that would preserve the current economic interests of Morocco relating to Western Sahara’s natural resources, writes @hlovatt.bsky.social buff.ly/9ducliL

Part of the background to the fall of El Fasher and RSF atrocities there is the sustained airlift from the UAE to the RSF via Libya - sixty Il-76 flights during October alone. For the past six months, Haftar-controlled eastern Libya has supplanted Chad as the RSF's most important supply route.

Pleasure to be at ISPI's MED Dialogues on a panel moderated by @martinkonecny.bsky.social talking about the future of Palestinian governance with Obada Shtaya and Hiba Husseini Watch what we had to say 👇 events.ispionline.it/the-future-o...

New @ecfr.eu by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social: "The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight, but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to the logic of perpetual war." t.co/LPBLj4qNV8

Positive news to see Polisario updating its 2007 peace proposal -- long overdue and something we @ecfr have been advocating for the past 4 years. On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...

European states should offer support for the broad principles of the plan conditioned on a clear Israeli commitment to a full withdrawal from Gaza, write @hlovatt.bsky.social @jbdacey.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social https://bit.ly/42YPEqn

European governments need to recognise the destabilising effects of ever-escalating Israeli actions on European interests. Europe must do much more, write @jbdacey.bsky.social @hlovatt.bsky.social and Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfrmena.bsky.social https://bit.ly/3IhltUe

📰 “A far more significant shift is happening among long-standing supporters of Israel, predominantly on the political Right, who are also becoming increasingly critical." comments @hlovatt.bsky.social for @telegraphnews.bsky.social. For more 👇 buff.ly/vAddSsv

Wonderful @telegraphnews.bsky.social obituary of my (soon to be) father-in-law Byron Rogers, Welsh writer & journalist. "His interviewees included Helen Mirren – whose convivial boyfriend, Liam Neeson, got him so drunk that he fell off his bicycle on the way home" www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2...

New for @ecfr.eu by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social: Hamas is battered but unbroken. The group is now quietly opening up to decommissioning. European leaders, long sidelined in the diplomatic arena, now have a real chance to help chart a new course away from perpetual war. ecfr.eu/article/deco...

A few thoughts ahead of tomorrow's EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting to discuss possible restrictive measures against Israel, including suspension of preferential trade tariffs and Horizon Europe, arms embargo and a settlement trade ban... 🧵

Here are the 30+ Israeli international law violations in Gaza and the West Bank, identified in the EU's review. The EU review has concluded Israel is in breach of its human rights obligations under Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. 🧵🧵🧵

🧵In new @ecfr.eu piece @jbdacey.bsky.social, Ellie Geranmayeh & @hlovatt.bsky.social argue that Israel's destabilising regional role threatens Euro interests, including by trying to draw the West into an unnecessary & dangerous war with Iran focused on regime change as much as nuclear issues

Maxime Prévot annonce qu'avec 8 autres Etats membres (🇫🇮 🇮🇪 🇱🇺 🇵🇱 🇵🇹 🇸🇮 🇪🇸 🇸🇪), la 🇧🇪 a adressé une lettre à la Commission 🇪🇺 lui demandant une analyse sur les implications pour l'UE de l'avis de la CIJ sur le commerce avec les colonies israéliennes. Spoiler alert : ce commerce est ILLÉGAL et doit CESSER.

Our latest: Enough is enough: Europe needs to oppose Israel’s aggression, with @hlovatt.bsky.social & Ellie Geranmayeh At this pivotal moment European gov supporting Israeli strikes as “doing our dirty work” must come to their senses ecfr.eu/article/enou... @ecfr.eu

'If European leaders want to seriously address the escalating insecurity and retain any political credibility in the region, they need to enforce some form of accountability on Israel for its actions that clearly violate EU’s human rights standards and long-standing red lines.'

[email protected] for @ecfr.eu: As Europeans focus on Israel’s intensifying conflict with Iran, the country is continuing its expansionist project in the West Bank. After its failed engagement policy, the EU should finally act against Israeli violations. t.co/AhCJ2x8ny6

Israel has become the biggest destabiliser in the Middle East, overstepping its right to self-defence, ethnically cleansing Gaza, undermining western-orientated governments in the Levant, and fuelling war with Iran. None of this is in Germany's interest. 👇 internationalepolitik.de/de/warum-deu...

With Hannah Lettl for @internationalepolitik.de: "Saying no to a friend is never easy. However, the German government's attitude towards Israel's actions in Gaza and the region has long since ceased to reflect its own strategic interests. A change of course is needed."

"Anstatt zur Stabilisierung beizutragen, schafft Israel Bedingungen für neue Gewalt und Staatszerfall in der Levante – mit sicherheitspolitischen Folgen für Deutschland." Hannah Lettl und ich fordern einen Kurswechsel der deutschen Nahostpolitik:🔗 internationalepolitik.de/de/warum-deu...

Several factors contributed to Israel’s war against Iran, incl a desire to fully exploit its perceived regional weakening and thwart a U.S. nuclear deal — as @ecfr.eu has consistently warned. But the spectre of Netanyahu’s quest for political survival also looms large.🧵

Ellie Geranmayeh: Israeli aggression against Iran is a threat to regional peace and security, derailing hopes of a diplomatic pathway to resolve Iran’s nuclear crisis and risking a deep regional war, both of which directly threaten core European interests. ecfr.eu/article/euro... @ecfr.eu

Join our online panel, Thurs, June 12, 1 PM ET — “French-Saudi Two-State Solution Conference: Game Changer or Too Little, Too Late?” Experts: @hlovatt.bsky.social, @claudiofrancavilla.bsky.social, @omerman.bsky.social, Raed Jarrar, @sarahleah1.bsky.social Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

A full suspension of EU’s Association agreement with Israel is unlikely due to lack of unanimity among member states. However a qualified majority could suspend parts of the agreement, blocking Israel's access to preferential trade tariffs and important EU funding under projects like Horizon Europe.

Great summary and analysis of European policy changes towards Israel brewing

The tide is turning, as the reality of Israel's ethnic cleansing of Gaza and growing public anger finally catch up with Europe's leaders. The EU aspires to be a geopolitical power. It must now demonstrate to Israel that its actions come with a cost. dawnmena.org/is-europe-fi...

Europeans have a chance to guide the Levant towards stability by supporting effective state institutions that serve their people and prevent external interference. New ECFR paper by Ellie Geranmayeh, @hlovatt.bsky.social ‬& @jbdacey.bsky.social

My contribution to @carnegieeurope.bsky.social debate: "Israel has become the Middle East’s new de-stabilizer-in-chief....Suspending the association agreement, even in part, would create the sort of tangible dilemmas that Israelis have so far avoided." t.co/1SHldoOZXl

The regional shifts following October 7 remain uncertain & dangerous. Nonetheless, they present #Europe with an opportunity to help shape a more stable regional order. Read @ecfr.eu 's new policy brief by @jbdacey.bsky.social , @hlovatt.bsky.social & Ellie Geranmayeh 👇 bit.ly/3GTwbPO

🚨New @ecfr.eu report with @jbdacey.bsky.social & Ellie Geranmayeh on the shifting geopolitics of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon: "long-term stability depends on the establishment of a new balance of power that can support independent governments free from external hegemony." ecfr.eu/publication/...