Finally, and just published tonight: a European perspective on the humanitarian nightmare in Sudan. Europe can't do much. But @willbrownecfr.bsky.social and @cinziabianco.bsky.social make the case for it doing what it can: ecfr.eu/article/suda...

Glad to see this out! In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation. #EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition

Our publications @ecfr.eu have been going gangbusters recently. This past month we have published a series of must-read policy briefs on Europe's southern flank: ecfr.eu

In Sudan, Rapid Support Forces captured the city of el-Fasher, resulting in fears of mass killings. To support long-term stability in Sudan, European policymakers can benefit from a closer understanding of Gulf interests, writes Jonas Horner @ecfrafrica.bsky.social https://bit.ly/3WNGppP

Moscow has developed a powerful propaganda machine that taps into existing antipathy towards Europe, particularly France, to push African governments closer to its foreign policy objectives, writes @willbrownecfr.bsky.social @ecfrafrica.bsky.social https://bit.ly/3Jmv4cS

New by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social @ecfr.eu on internal Hamas dynamics after the ceasefire: “The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to logic of perpetual war” ecfr.eu/article/dipl...

New by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social @ecfr.eu on internal Hamas dynamics after the ceasefire: “The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to logic of perpetual war” ecfr.eu/article/dipl...

Positive news to see Polisario updating its 2007 peace proposal -- long overdue and something we @ecfr have been advocating for the past 4 years. On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...

Today at the MED Dialogues: @jbdacey.bsky.social co-chairs with Maha Yahya a special dialogue with Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, Qatari Minister of State, discussing regional approaches to Trump's Gaza plan & outlooks for Syria, Lebanon & Iran.

1/ Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on the first Phase of Trump's plan. Nevertheless, the details are still unclear. Yet, our experts @hlovatt.bsky.social, @jbdacey.bsky.social and @muhammadshehada.bsky.social analysed its gaps in the recent papers @ecfrmena.bsky.social 👇 bit.ly/4gRX0Sg

Meloni aims to redefine Italy’s relationship with countries to its south by creating equal partnerships with partner states. This also involves enhancing the role of the private sector, write @kellyp90.bsky.social and @arturovarvelli.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social https://bit.ly/42r0HbI

Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...

NEW piece unpacking the security & governance dimensions of Trump's Gaza plan - and outlining necessary benchmarks & guarantees, especially on an Israeli withdrawal, for any hope of success - new by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @muhammadshehada.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/an-i...

Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...

1/3 With #Syria’s (indirect) #parliamentary #elections less than a week away, I’ve put together an explainer on how the process works and the key issues to watch. A guide for both experts and observers. www.arab-reform.net/publication/...

Euro support for Trump's plan - which has sound elements to help end the war - needs to be tied to Israel’s explicit acceptance of a Gaza withdrawal & political path. If not the process will surely unravel, trapping Europe as enforcers of Israeli occupation by proxy @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/trum...

✍️ Now that European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran, they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open. Read Ellie Geranmayeh's piece for @ecfr.eu here 👇 buff.ly/w6z0osT

What a sight. Stranded in Idlib just 10 months ago, the new Syrian leadership hit Central Park

“15 of every 16 Palestinians the Israeli military has killed since its renewed offensive in Gaza began in March have been civilians… internal data from the IDF indicated a civilian death toll of 83% between outbreak of war in Oct 2023 & May this year” www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...

“identification with the Syrian state is at its lowest point…the consolidation of over 35 Druze armed factions…a de facto autonomous zone across central, southern & eastern Suwayda” - @ajaltamimi.bsky.social on hardening anti-Damascus Druze positioning www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/the-druze-...

On the mismatch in Israeli-Syrian negots & how it could feed deep ongoing instability. “For Syria, talks are a means to reduce conflict and assert sovereignty; for Israel, they serve as an extension of its strategy of coercion” writes @haidhaid22.bsky.social en.majalla.com/node/327415/...

Israel’s initial response to Oct 7 helped Gulf states by weakening Iran but it is now entrenching conflict, fragmenting Arab states & pulling Gulf states towards escalation, all of which also threatens Euro interests. @cinziabianco.bsky.social on post-Doha dynamics ecfr.eu/article/out-...

Qatar is at least the sixth country bombed by Israel in recent months. Europe must finally impose tangible pressure on Israel to end the Gaza war & its regional belligerence, doing far more to ensure its ties to Israel don't make it complicit in violations - new from @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/qata...

“Lebanon is being treated like a country that lost a war...However, embarking on a civil conflict to satisfy voices in Washington & Tel Aviv is suicide. There is absolutely no reason for the Lebanese to destroy themselves in order to purportedly save themselves” carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

Good paper by @abujamajem.com on Lebanese positioning on refugee returns and associated dynamics inside of Syria

🧵 With E3 triggering "snapback" against Iran, short window remains till UN sanctions return. In @foreignpolicy.com, Ellie Geranmayeh unpacks why E3 extension offer hit dead-end & proposes how to use upcoming UNGA to get Trump/Tehran re-invested in a deal buff.ly/UTpM7RH

Strong words of condemnation by Germany, UK & France (though not a peep from the EU yet) but - as with Gaza - don’t hold your breath for any meaningful response that would actually involve taking steps to pressure Israel

For US allies in the Gulf the Israeli attacks affirm the hollowness of Washington’s security guarantees, for regional foes they affirm the hollowness of negotiations with Washington

Israel - surely with a US greenlight - bombs Hamas negotiators in Qatar, the US-backed mediating state with whom Washington has a security partnership. Tells you everything about ceasefire intentions…

My latest for @ecfr looks at efforts to find 100s of 1000s of Iraqis who are missing.Many are believed to be in mass graves. #Iraq has so many mass graves it has a specialized directorate. It even has a Mass Graves Day.Every number is a person who was part of a family that is integral to a community

‘The politics of access to Gaza has helped sustain Western complicity in the genocide, despite the steady stream of evidence produced by Palestinians at enormous risk to their own lives. What it amounts to isn’t denial so much as plausible deniability.’ From the blog: www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2025/au...

Marc Lynch’s forthcoming new book which looks as compelling as ever

Looks really excellent by Patrick & Jerome who have followed HTS from right up close for years

Strong letter from 34 ex-EU ambassadors: 'Act now against Israel' “We are witnessing the horrifying spectacle of Israel carrying out, on a daily basis, atrocity crimes against the Palestinian people” euobserver.com/eu-and-the-w...

‘We faced hunger before, but never like this’: skeletal children fill hospital wards as starvation grips Gaza www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

Syria ”requires a new political imagination that recognizes multiple centers of power and participatory governance…[to] move away from illusions of a rigid, unified state, which no longer seems possible” writes Kheder Khaddour after Sweida carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

My latest argues that the ceasefire may have stopped the shooting, but it’s no return to normal. Syria has changed at its core, and without tackling the underlying causes, this calm won’t hold. en.majalla.com/node/326545/...

Valuable read cutting through the murkiness of dynamics in Sweida by @ajaltamimi.bsky.social www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/misconcept...

A principled statement by Western nations saying War in Gaza 'must end now' - and as ever zero steps to actually pressure Israel in this direction (and of course no German signature) www.gov.uk/government/n...

“People are falling down now in the streets of Gaza from extreme hunger.” “The Israeli Authorities are starving civilians in Gaza.” “Feel for us. Enough is enough. … Some people have spent months without a single loaf of bread.” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

"So one day, they’re coming in having been shot in the abdomen. Another day they’re coming in having being shot in the head or the neck. So there’s a very clear pattern and it’s almost as if a game is being played that today it’s gonna be the head, tomorrow it’s going to be the abdomen"

Europe's leverage in Middle East is patchy. But ECFR has spotted two windows of opportunity: 1) Ellie Geranmayeh on how E3 (🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪) can use Iran sanctions "snapback" for deescalation ecfr.eu/article/snap..., 2) Muhammad Shehada on Hamas's quiet opening to arms decommissioning ecfr.eu/article/deco...

Iran snapback primer by Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfr.eu who lays out why/how E3 could still leverage an extension to support much needed nuclear negotiations ecfr.eu/article/snap...

New @muhammadshehada.bsky.social piece for @ecfr.eu eu on how a battered Hamas remains unbroken but may be quietly opening up to a phased decommissioning of its arms ecfr.eu/article/deco...

'It's a Killing Field': IDF Soldiers Ordered to Shoot Deliberately at Unarmed Gazans Waiting for Humanitarian Aid www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

A call on Europe to help prevent large-scale war between Iran and the United States @ecfr.eu Council members urge European governments to pull every available lever to prevent escalation in the Middle East ecfr.eu/article/a-ca...

Many open questions following Trump's strikes on Iran. How will Tehran retaliate? Will Jerusalem and Washington now double down or pull back? What will does it all mean for the balance of power in the region? A reading list of essential @ecfr.eu publications for understanding the context:

“Trump has rolled the dice with his strike against Iranian nuc facilities. Before he is dragged into a never-ending war on Israel’s terms, he must now do something even more radical: strike a deal on terms that Tehran can accept” - read my colleague Ellie Geranmayeh in FT today on.ft.com/4l4rXE0

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

Bleak: First big ISIS suicide bombing in Damascus since Assad fell targets city's Christian community, killing at least 22 www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/...