If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire - Ellie Geranmayeh & Jeremy Shapiro https://bit.ly/4brdqQF

With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging toward state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight behind France’s diplomatic push, writes Kelly Petillo. Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/3Pi7nW5

After some initial support & ambiguity Europeans now clearly rejecting US efforts to draw them into Iran war. Question is whether they can play any role pushing parties towards new diplomacy www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

“Batoul & her loved ones were among 773 Lebanese people – including more than 100 children – killed by Israel’s campaign in Lebanon since 2 March. They join a growing list of families completely wiped out by Israeli bombings” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

“price of continued conflict…against regime prepared to set world on fire is too high. Better to end it immediately…then seek to address thorny challenges through renewed diplomacy than risk ever more unmanageable, expanding & perilous war” - @crisisgroup.org www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-e...

“Iranian regime is unlikely to back down because it retains several advantages: geography, time & asymmetry. The longer the war goes on, the greater the cost to everyone else — and the Iranian regime has superior pain tolerance” @emile-hokayem.bsky.social FT piece giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

“Those in command of Iran today are veterans of asymmetric wars in Iraq & Syria. They are now applying the same strategy to fighting the US on the battlefield of the global economy” - @valinasr.bsky.social on Tehran’s long game strategy giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

“This private-actor diplomacy has revealed its more dangerous & illuminating consequences in Iran. Reports suggest White House envoys Witkoff & Kushner—meeting Iranian negotiators in Geneva—didn’t grasp the mechanics of the Iran nuclear issue” ecfr.eu/article/frie... @ecfr.eu

Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europe needs to find a way to shape the terms, write Julien Barnes-Dacey, @jkobzova.bsky.social and Jim O’Brien. https://bit.ly/40rJAFu

‘Stunned, sidelined and disunited’: how war in the Middle East paralysed the EU www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

New @nytimes.com piece by my colleague Ellie Geranmayeh on possibility of arming the Kurds to fight Tehran: “This will most likely backfire terribly — both on the Kurds & other US allies in the region. It could also set in motion nightmare scenario of a civil war” www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/o...

It would be strategic lunacy for Europe to support the US/Israeli war on Iran. It is an illegal war that comes with huge costs: regional spillover, higher energy costs, helping Putin in Ukraine. It risks drawing Europe into a new regime change quagmire ecfr.eu/article/stra...

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran - my new piece with Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/stra...

A pleasure to discuss Europe's response to the Iran war with @stevenerlanger.bsky.social on the CNAS Brussels Sprouts podcast with Andrea Kendall-Taylor & @jteurope.bsky.social www.cnas.org/publications...

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran - my new piece with Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/stra...

For the EU, Syria should be seen as the perfect partner to showcase and advance the opportunities afforded by the new Pact for the Mediterranean, with a wider range of tools that could be quickly deployed by the new DG MENA, writes @jbdacey.bsky.social buff.ly/UK1FDIO

Our collective piece on the regional and global drivers, theatres & implications of the Iran war from across @ecfr.eu, with thread below ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

A little leftfield amid current regional developments but: A new piece from me on Syria's transition one year since the formation of the transitional government after a series of trips to the country ecfr.eu/article/a-ye... @ecfr.eu

US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no side will achieve an easy victory, write colleagues from ECFR's programmes in this 360 degree reaction ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

Our big @ecfr.eu 360° reaction piece to the Iran conflict, assessing regional & global positioning, risks and implications as the war plays out in devastating fashion across the Middle East - and beyond ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

Our big @ecfr.eu 360° reaction piece to the Iran conflict, assessing regional & global positioning, risks and implications as the war plays out in devastating fashion across the Middle East - and beyond ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

New @ecfr.eu: Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so, by Ellie Geranmayeh with a strong list of immediate action for Europeans who need to quickly snap out of passivity & acceptance of this new regional conflict ecfr.eu/article/trum...

New @ecfr.eu: Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so, by Ellie Geranmayeh with a strong list of immediate action for Europeans who need to quickly snap out of passivity & acceptance of this new regional conflict ecfr.eu/article/trum...

Iranian regime horrific but EU’s Kallas coming out here without any line of condemnation/vague pressure on US/Israel which have preemptively provoked regional conflict without immediate threat at moment when Iran had put real concessions on table in ongoing negots

🧵US-Iran talks resumed in Geneva this week. The parallel US military buildup in the Middle East suggests Trump could order imminent strikes against Iran. @ecfr.eu experts comment on the risks, regional reactions, legality of such strikes, and what Europeans should be doing 👇

📑 NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social: Donald Trump’s economic development plan for Gaza highlights the president’s preference for real estate over rights. Europeans and Arab states need to help Palestinians chart their own future 👇 ecfr.eu/article/disp...

New @ecfr.eu by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social: Trump’s dystopian economic plan will turn Gaza into a real-estate bonanza for oligarchs, obliterating its historic, cultural and social fabric, and herding Palestinian into heavily surveilled gated communities. t.co/d11lljJPfO

🧵US-Iran talks resumed in Geneva this week. The parallel US military buildup in the Middle East suggests Trump could order imminent strikes against Iran. @ecfr.eu experts comment on the risks, regional reactions, legality of such strikes, and what Europeans should be doing 👇

My longer read for @ecfr.eu on what Trump's Board of Peace means for Gaza, Europe's quest for strategic autonomy, and the future of the global order: ecfr.eu/article/welc...

✍️ A brief momentum for a Gulf front collapsed as strained Saudi-Emirati relations gave way to open rivalry, driven by mistrust and suspicions of parallel agendas. @cinziabianco.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu on the Saudi–UAE rupture and the European angle 👇 buff.ly/TUk8Evm

🎙️ NEW @ecfr.eu podcast: @markhleonard.bsky.social & Ellie Geranmayeh discuss the ongoing protests in #Iran & the chance of #US invasion. Listen to it here 👇 ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

ECFR podcast with Syrian Minister Hind Kabawat as part of our ongoing Women of Middle East Network for Peacebuilding project - One year after Assad: Syria’s struggle for security, recovery and reform @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

Big & important new @ecfr.eu read: Averting West Bank collapse: How to revive Palestinian politics - by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @tahanimustafa.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrmena.bsky.social

Glad to see this out! In my latest policy brief with @ecfr.eu, I argue that Europe needs a more coherent, horizontal and context-sensitive approach in its green energy relations with Tunisia to create mutual benefits and people-centered cooperation. #EU #Tunisia #COP30 #energytransition

Our publications @ecfr.eu have been going gangbusters recently. This past month we have published a series of must-read policy briefs on Europe's southern flank: ecfr.eu

In Sudan, Rapid Support Forces captured the city of el-Fasher, resulting in fears of mass killings. To support long-term stability in Sudan, European policymakers can benefit from a closer understanding of Gulf interests, writes Jonas Horner @ecfrafrica.bsky.social https://bit.ly/3WNGppP

Moscow has developed a powerful propaganda machine that taps into existing antipathy towards Europe, particularly France, to push African governments closer to its foreign policy objectives, writes @willbrownecfr.bsky.social @ecfrafrica.bsky.social https://bit.ly/3Jmv4cS

New by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social @ecfr.eu on internal Hamas dynamics after the ceasefire: “The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to logic of perpetual war” ecfr.eu/article/dipl...

New by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social @ecfr.eu on internal Hamas dynamics after the ceasefire: “The question is not whether Hamas will change overnight but whether diplomacy can evolve fast enough to meet Hamas at its most flexible before it returns to logic of perpetual war” ecfr.eu/article/dipl...

Positive news to see Polisario updating its 2007 peace proposal -- long overdue and something we @ecfr have been advocating for the past 4 years. On why this is needed, and how it can advance a Trump deal, here is my most recent piece: cidob.org/en/publicati...

Today at the MED Dialogues: @jbdacey.bsky.social co-chairs with Maha Yahya a special dialogue with Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, Qatari Minister of State, discussing regional approaches to Trump's Gaza plan & outlooks for Syria, Lebanon & Iran.

1/ Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on the first Phase of Trump's plan. Nevertheless, the details are still unclear. Yet, our experts @hlovatt.bsky.social, @jbdacey.bsky.social and @muhammadshehada.bsky.social analysed its gaps in the recent papers @ecfrmena.bsky.social 👇 bit.ly/4gRX0Sg

Meloni aims to redefine Italy’s relationship with countries to its south by creating equal partnerships with partner states. This also involves enhancing the role of the private sector, write @kellyp90.bsky.social and @arturovarvelli.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social https://bit.ly/42r0HbI

Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...

NEW piece unpacking the security & governance dimensions of Trump's Gaza plan - and outlining necessary benchmarks & guarantees, especially on an Israeli withdrawal, for any hope of success - new by @hlovatt.bsky.social & @muhammadshehada.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/an-i...

Following the announcement of Trump's Gaza plan this is an important piece to revisit by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social on question of Hamas disarmament @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/deco...

1/3 With #Syria’s (indirect) #parliamentary #elections less than a week away, I’ve put together an explainer on how the process works and the key issues to watch. A guide for both experts and observers. www.arab-reform.net/publication/...

Euro support for Trump's plan - which has sound elements to help end the war - needs to be tied to Israel’s explicit acceptance of a Gaza withdrawal & political path. If not the process will surely unravel, trapping Europe as enforcers of Israeli occupation by proxy @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/trum...

✍️ Now that European leaders have reimposed UN sanctions on Iran, they must steer clear of America’s maximum pressure campaign and instead keep the diplomatic door open. Read Ellie Geranmayeh's piece for @ecfr.eu here 👇 buff.ly/w6z0osT

What a sight. Stranded in Idlib just 10 months ago, the new Syrian leadership hit Central Park