Why could China, not Russia, be the real winner of the Iran war? With global oil prices surging and US sanctions on Russian crude partially eased, Moscow is a clear beneficiary from the war. In contrast, China is in a tricky spot, writes @agathedemarais.com. https://bit.ly/4sOS7il

China is investing in electric vehicles in the Middle East and North Africa, allowing it to capture shares in emerging markets and potentially bypass Western tariffs. Jonathan Fulton, Camille Lons & @byfordt.bsky.social discuss how Europe should navigate this competition. https://bit.ly/41rEN7d

The EU has concluded its third major trade deal of 2026, reflecting both sides’ desire for new partners amid Trumpian chaos and Chinese coercion. But now this partnership should go further. @jamescrabtree.bsky.social discusses three areas The EU and Australia should focus on: https://bit.ly/3Pyz4Kg

In case you missed our online discussion on Russian hybrid warfare in Africa last week - the recording is available now. 👇️ @ecfr.eu 🗣️ We discussed Russian disinformation strategies and policy options for like-minded European and African countries.

#EUIndustry - EV endgame: Stalling #China’s export surge in #Europe’s southern neighbourhood, by @jonathanfulton.bsky.social, @camillelons.bsky.social & @byfordt.bsky.social | @ecfr.eu www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...

With oil prices surging, Moscow looks like the main winner from the Iran war - Yet this is only part of the story: for @ecfr.eu I outline how higher oil prices won't bridge Russia's fiscal gap and why Hormuz's closure vindicate China's electrification and clean tech bets ecfr.eu/article/why-...

Today, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is expected to meet German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin. @jbdacey.bsky.social comments on Syria's condition one year after Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus and how to root the transition in a inclusive political and economic vision: https://bit.ly/4s0RYGY

The Italian prime minister’s referendum defeat could reveal the price of allying with a US administration that goes against European interests, writes @arturovarvelli.bsky.social Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/4tfwp6W

China is investing in electric vehicles in the Middle East and North Africa, allowing it to capture shares in emerging markets and potentially bypass Western tariffs. Jonathan Fulton, Camille Lons & @byfordt.bsky.social discuss how Europe should navigate this competition. https://bit.ly/41rEN7d

The EU has concluded its third major trade deal of 2026, reflecting both sides’ desire for new partners amid Trumpian chaos and Chinese coercion. But now this partnership should go further. @jamescrabtree.bsky.social discusses three areas The EU and Australia should focus on: https://bit.ly/3Pyz4Kg

🎧 This week @markhleonard.bsky.social welcomes @jkobzova.bsky.social to discuss how the war in Iran is reshaping Ukraine’s war effort, from US support to shifting European unity. Listen to the latest podcast episode: https://bit.ly/4lVdNXj

The Italian prime minister’s referendum defeat could reveal the price of allying with a US administration that goes against European interests, writes @arturovarvelli.bsky.social Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/4tfwp6W

With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging towards state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight behind France’s diplomatic push, writes Kelly Petillo. https://bit.ly/3Pi7nW5

Why could China, not Russia, be the real winner of the Iran war? With global oil prices surging and US sanctions on Russian crude partially eased, Moscow is a clear beneficiary from the war. In contrast, China is in a tricky spot, writes @agathedemarais.com. https://bit.ly/4sOS7il

As the war with Iran rages on and gets more costly by the day, rumblings about a potential cease-fire have emerged from Washington. Ellie Geranmayeh states that The White House is making a mistake by tying cease-fire negotiations to a grand bargain. https://fam.ag/4rZFSht

To end this mutually destructive war, the international community must redouble its efforts to bring about an urgently needed cease-fire that, unlike the one announced in June last year, is seriously negotiated and can hold, writes Ellie Geranmayeh www.foreignaffairs.com/can-america-...

Which issues preoccupy Europe today and tomorrow? ECFR Warsaw and @politykainsight.bsky.social host the 4th edition of the Warsaw European Conversation today #WEC2026 🎥 Join us in the livestream or simply re-watch the conference here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8VH...

The EU has concluded its third major trade deal of 2026, reflecting both sides’ desire for new partners amid Trumpian chaos and Chinese coercion. But now this partnership should go further. @jamescrabtree.bsky.social discusses three areas The EU and Australia should focus on: https://bit.ly/3Pyz4Kg

The war on Iran marks a turning point in the security calculus of the Gulf monarchies. Strategic hedging has failed—and Europeans could become just the reliable partners the monarchies need, writes Cinzia Bianco. https://bit.ly/4uROVnp

🎧 This week @markhleonard.bsky.social welcomes @jkobzova.bsky.social to discuss how the war in Iran is reshaping Ukraine’s war effort, from US support to shifting European unity. Listen to the latest podcast episode: https://bit.ly/4lVdNXj

🧵 Trump's grace period on bombing Iran's energy infrastructure demonstrates control over the Strait of Hormuz is key in the ongoing war. Here are four ways to stop the US-Iran crisis in the Strait from spiralling, write Ellie Geranmayeh & @Jyshapiro.bsky.social 👇️

✍️ Strengthening the Lebanese military is essential for Hizbullah's disarmament, restoring central government authority in the south & along the Israeli border, and maintaining stability amid Israeli aggression & the upcoming end of UNIFIL. @kellyp90.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/leba...

The Gulf countries are experiencing a true Zeitenwende: this is the end of strategic hedging - moving forward they will need reliable and stable friends. And an entirely different (surprising?) regional security architecture. Tips for Europeans. My latest for @ecfrmena.bsky.social

📖NEW @ecfr.eu brief by @camillelons.bsky.social, @byfordt.bsky.social & @jonathanfulton.bsky.social: Chinese electric vehicle brands are adapting to Western trade barriers by increasing their presence in the MENA region. Europe's response must go beyond merely closing the loopholes 🧵 buff.ly/desxCDF

With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging towards state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight behind France’s diplomatic push, writes Kelly Petillo. https://bit.ly/3Pi7nW5

The Italian prime minister’s referendum defeat could reveal the price of allying with a US administration that goes against European interests, writes @arturovarvelli.bsky.social. Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/4tfwp6W

If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire - Ellie Geranmayeh & Jeremy Shapiro bit.ly/4brdqQF

📑 NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by @cinziabianco.bsky.social: The war on Iran marks a turning point in the security calculus of the Gulf monarchies. Strategic hedging has failed—and Europeans could become just the reliable partners the monarchies need 👇 ecfr.eu/article/the-...

China is investing in electric vehicles in the Middle East and North Africa, allowing it to capture shares in emerging markets and potentially bypass Western tariffs. Jonathan Fulton, Camille Lons & @byfordt.bsky.social discuss how Europe should navigate this competition. https://bit.ly/41rEN7d

The war on Iran marks a turning point in the security calculus of the Gulf monarchies. Strategic hedging has failed—and Europeans could become just the reliable partners the monarchies need, writes Cinzia Bianco. https://bit.ly/4uROVnp

Why could China, not Russia, be the real winner of the Iran war? With global oil prices surging and US sanctions on Russian crude partially eased, Moscow is a clear beneficiary from the war. In contrast, China is in a tricky spot, writes @agathedemarais.com. https://bit.ly/4sOS7il

With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging towards state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight behind France’s diplomatic push, writes Kelly Petillo. https://bit.ly/3Pi7nW5

Why China, not Russia, could be the real winner of the Iran war? @agathedemarais.com provides expert insight on the geoeconomic situation and interpretation of the possible outcomes. Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/4sOS7il

If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire - Ellie Geranmayeh & Jeremy Shapiro https://bit.ly/4brdqQF

#WEC2026 | Agenda Highlight Europe is rethinking its digital future as governments and industry face growing questions over technological dependencies, regulation, and control. Moderator: José Ignacio Torreblanca – Senior Adviser, Distinguished Policy Fellow, @ecfr.eu

🔴 NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by @kellyp90.bsky.social: With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging toward state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight behind France’s diplomatic push 👇️ ecfr.eu/article/leba...

🎧@markhleonard.bsky.social welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons,@jpuglierin.bsky.social and Arturo Varvelli to discuss how Europe is responding to the escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. https://bit.ly/4dEkyKT

In March, Macron delivered perhaps the most significant speech on nuclear policy by any Western leader since the end of the cold war: an independent nuclear deterrent. But how to ensure confidence in the French commitment to nuclear use when the crisis comes? - Nick Witney. https://bit.ly/4sRNh3f

@markhleonard.bsky.social discusses how the conflict in the Middle East demonstrates the end of rule-based order in international politics, the heightened weaponization of tools of cooperation, and the increasing contamination between domestic and foreign politics https://bit.ly/4c0Pd3J

All eyes are set on U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating war against Iran, but on the home front, things are not going well. Americans are paying, reindustrialization isn’t happening, and China profits. Read the latest piece by @agathedemarais.com on Foreign Policy. https://bit.ly/4spsPqz

If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire - Ellie Geranmayeh & Jeremy Shapiro https://bit.ly/4brdqQF

With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging toward state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight behind France’s diplomatic push, writes Kelly Petillo. Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/3Pi7nW5

James Talarico's foreign policy, rooted in a moral framework that the biggest divide in America is not left versus right but top versus bottom, could have wide appeal for Democrats, write @cwherrmann.bsky.social and Jeremy Shapiro. Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/4uy22tz

James Talarico's foreign policy, rooted in a moral framework that the biggest divide in America is not left versus right but top versus bottom, could have wide appeal for Democrats, write @cwherrmann.bsky.social and Jeremy Shapiro. Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/4uy22tz

🎧 Mark Leonard welcomes Aziz Alghashian, Eran Etzion and Ellie Geranmayeh to discuss the implications of a prolonged war in the Middle East and possible ceasefire scenarios. Listen to the latest episode: https://bit.ly/472XilT

It's a wrap! ECFR colleagues came together in Sofia, Bulgaria for an energizing annual staff retreat - sparking fresh ideas, mapping out the future, and building stronger connections as a team. A huge thank you to everyone who made this such a great experience!

🎧New week, new podcast! @markhleonard.bsky.social welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, @camille.bsky.social, @jpuglierin.bsky.social and Arturo Varvelli and to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

The war in Iran could trigger a global food shock • More than 1.1mn tonnes of fertiliser and fertiliser inputs is currently stuck in the Gulf • Shortages are starting during northern hemisphere’s planting season, raising the risk of lower harvests for staples like rice www.ft.com/content/1054...

In March, Macron delivered perhaps the most significant speech on nuclear policy by any Western leader since the end of the cold war: an independent nuclear deterrent. But how to ensure confidence in the French commitment to nuclear use when the crisis comes? - Nick Witney. https://bit.ly/4sRNh3f

On Monday 23 March, Chaired by Piotr Buras, @mariamlau.bsky.social, @markhleonard.bsky.social & Philip Manow will discuss the thinking and strategies of Europe’s new right mapped in Leonard’s recent policy brief, The new right: Anatomy of a global political revolution. Join us: bit.ly/4ur8rXN