If a far-right candidate like Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen takes power, what does that mean for NATO, European integration, and the continent’s strategic autonomy? Watch the full interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEGbIc9ACtk

It's @foreignpolicy.com free week: all pieces are free to read, with no paywall or need to log in - on this occasion I'm re-upping my most popular column ever, outlining how the initial US-Russia peace deal last year came with a US$300bn signing bonus for Trump

After years of European warnings about the economic imbalance and the cost of backing Russia went unmatched by serious action, Beijing has learnt that Europe may complain, but it can be coerced into delay. Read full policy brief here: https://bit.ly/4uZz3hh

It's @foreignpolicy.com free week: all pieces are free to read, with no paywall or need to log in - on this occasion I'm re-upping my second most popular column since 2023, on how Canada may not be doing too badly in terms of fending off Trump's economic coercion tactics (happy Canada day!)

History as shown that illicit arms and military expertise can rapidly migrate into African conflicts. Governments in Africa and Europe should prepare now for a surplus of military equipment flowing to Africa after the end of the Ukraine war. @ecfr.eu Read more here 👇️

A stronger European posture requires integrated nuclear and conventional capabilities, enhanced missile defence, intelligence, and political cohesion to deter future aggression. Read the full policy brief here: https://bit.ly/4oV7qVd

We´re hiring! We're looking for a Programme Support Intern to provide support for event organization while gaining practical experience in a dynamic, multinational environment. Set in our office in Sofia, Bulgaria. Read full offer here: https://ecfr.eu/jobs/

Every time European governments accommodate American pressure, they teach Washington that European sovereignty is negotiable and invite the next demand. https://ecfr.eu/publication/sliding-doors-one-trump-crisis-two-possible-futures-for-europe/

As Europe's security environment continues to evolve, the challenge is no longer simply to spend more on defence—but to build the institutions, partnerships, and capabilities needed to act together when it matters most. www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLKg...

On July 7, the Paris Court of Appeal is due to deliver its verdict in Marine Le Pen's appeal against her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds. One court ruling could reshape French politics—and reverberate across Europe. Full interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEGbIc9ACtk

The EU approaches finance for the economy it used to have, not the one that will decide power in 2040 - for @ipq.bsky.social I argue that budget choices, joint debt and the digital euro may decide if Europe remains a great power or slips into the middle-power league

Stronger economic reciprocity and a level playing field are essential to sustain trade and investment, with concerns raised over Europe's growing trade imbalance with China. Watch full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXPE69OAiVE

While most Europeans blame the US for the current fuel and energy turmoil unleashed by the war, many—especially in Germany and Estonia—also blame their national governments. More #defence, energy and economic #polling data 👇 @pawelzerka.bsky.social @jkobzova.bsky.social#defence#polling https://bit.ly/3PUhhOk

This year's Annual Council Meeting in Vienna has been enriching and immensely fruitful, bringing together diverse perspectives, fostering new collaborations, and generating practical ideas that will help shape our shared priorities in the year ahead. www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C7Z...

At ECFR's #ACM, Jacek Siewiera argued that Europe’s security depends on a stronger shared European identity and a more realistic view of its military posture. Watch the full address: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYGWxxu8_1g

At ECFR's #ACM, Ellie Geranmayeh argued that despite its flaws and political risks, the Iran memorandum should be treated as an opportunity rather than dismissed. Watch the full address: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftGWEGIPHmI

At ECFR’s #ACM, ECFR Director Mark Leonard argued that the world is entering an era of “unorder,” where the rules-based international system is breaking down and global politics are becoming more unpredictable. Watch the full address: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yW3yxs7cgS4

Voters no longer trust the US, and largely accept the efforts necessary to cover for the absence of the American security provision, whether this proves to be temporary or permanent, say @pawelzerka.bsky.social and @jkobzova.bsky.social about a major new ECFR #poll https://bit.ly/3PUhhOk

[Commentary] #Energ-: Gas-lit: The Three Seas Initiative is out of step with a clean-energy future, by Szymon Kardaś | @ecfr.eu www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...

"Like-minded African and European governments should prepare for a scenario in which large volumes of illicit arms and military capacity flow out of Russia and Ukraine into African conflict zones," write Will Brown and Lena Krause. @ecfr.eu Read here 👇️

China's dedollarisation efforts are stalling as few global firms are rushing to adopt the renminbi, CIPS or the e-yuan - in my latest for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how Beijing is learning the hard way that demand, unlikely infrastructure, cannot be built to order

Every time European governments accommodate American pressure, they teach Washington that European sovereignty is negotiable and invite the next demand. https://ecfr.eu/publication/sliding-doors-one-trump-crisis-two-possible-futures-for-europe/

Every time European governments accommodate American pressure, they teach Washington that European sovereignty is negotiable and invite the next demand. https://ecfr.eu/publication/sliding-doors-one-trump-crisis-two-possible-futures-for-europe/

If there were another referendum, the majority of people in the UK would vote to join the EU. Read the full report: https://ecfr.eu/publication/brexit-isnt-working-british-voters-are-ready-for-a-european-future/

Ten years after the #Brexit referendum: The perennial Eurosceptic bugbear of a “European army with British troops in it”—long a favourite scare-story of British tabloid newspapers—has become a relatively popular idea. Full report here: https://bit.ly/4oPBrGc

Ten years after the #Brexit referendum, few voters think that Brexit has helped control migration. Read the full report here: https://ecfr.eu/publication/brexit-isnt-working-british-voters-are-ready-for-a-european-future/

A major new ECFR #poll suggests voters are ready for bolder action on #defence and energy resilience. But that support comes with conditions on governments' ability to protect them from economic hardship by @pawelzerka.bsky.social and @jkobzova.bsky.social#poll👇 https://bit.ly/3PUhhOk

The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence ecfr.eu/publication/... Our latest policy brief now with a brand new header designed by @ecfr.eu's @chriseichberger.bsky.social! Check out our other “The bear at the door” reports here: ecfr.eu/topic/the-be...

Ten years after the #Brexit referendum, fully 63% would prioritise relations Europe, over 19% for the US (with even Conservative supporters breaking 50%-to-28% this way). Read the full report: https://ecfr.eu/publication/brexit-isnt-working-british-voters-are-ready-for-a-european-future/

Ten years after the #Brexit referendum, respondents’ answers to ECFR’s polling suggest three camps with a much better predictive force in today’s British politics than that of the leave-remain split. Read the full report: https://bit.ly/4vs1K7O

The world should seize the MoU signed last week by the US and Iran as the basis for a genuine diplomatic opening, including on the nuclear file, writes Ellie Geranmayeh from @ecfrmena.bsky.social in the @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/9eac...

Ten year's after the #Brexit referendum, ECFR’s survey suggests that the new people who have entered the electorate would vote to join by a margin of six to one—dramatically altering the balance of opinion compared with 2016. Read the full report: https://bit.ly/4oPBrGc

At ECFR's Annual Council Meeting in Vienna, Minister for European and International Affairs, Beate Meinl-Reisinger argued that Europe must move from analysis to action in an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable world. Watch the full address: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G-B...

Ten years after the Brexit referendum, only 18% of Brits see America as an ally today, while majorities of them view Europeans—France, Germany, Poland and Spain—as such. Read the full report: https://ecfr.eu/publication/brexit-isnt-working-british-voters-are-ready-for-a-european-future/

After first high level US-Iran meeting since the MOU, Vance says Iran has agreed to let international inspectors back. Follow @ecfr.eu's Iran Nuclear Monitor to see forecasts of deal scenarios that would enhance IAEA supervision of Iran's nuclear program ecfr.eu/special/iran...

What happens when Europe faces multiple crises at the same time? At ECFR’s Annual Council Meeting in Vienna, @mprochwicz.bsky.social presented findings from a war-game exploring how Europe responds to simultaneous security crises. www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1HQ...

[Policy Brief] #Brexit: Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future, by Mark Leonard | @ecfr.eu www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...

After the first high-level US-Iran meeting since the MOU, JD Vance says Iran has agreed to allow international inspectors back. Follow ECFR’s Iran Nuclear Monitor to see the steps we're tracking to forecast a scenario that enhances IAEA supervision over Iran's nuclear program ecfr.eu/special/iran...

The New Politics Project at @ecfr.eu is exploring how to do ambitious European policymaking amid 3 interlocking challenges: volatility, fragmentation & populism. Our proposals on climate policy are in this paper ⬇️. Studies on further policy topics to follow. ecfr.eu/publication/...

Important policy brief by Mark Leonard. @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/publication/... #Brexit #UK

Ten years on from the #Brexit referendum, the British electorate has moved on from its old divisions and—in a world of crisis—is embracing an ambitious move back towards the European Union, writes ECFR’s director @markhleonard.bsky.social 🧵 ecfr.eu/publication/...

🎙️ New podcast In this new episode @jbdacey.bsky.social welcomes Saudi Foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud to discuss how the recently inked US-Iran deal could deliver a more stable regional order https://ecfr.eu/podcasts/episode/peace-in-the-middle-east/

1/ Ten years on from the Brexit vote, the most interesting thing in British politics isn't that people regret it. It's that "Leaver" and "Remainer" have stopped meaning anything at all. New ECFR/Mandate polling out today, four surveys, fielded in May. A thread. 🧵

✍️ New poll New ECFR polling shows British voters see #Brexit as a disaster. They are strikingly open to reintegration with the EU. Three quarters want a closer relationship. Read the full report here 👇 https://ecfr.eu/publication/brexit-isnt-working-british-voters-are-ready-for-a-european-future/

Despite rising oil and gas prices, Europeans don't want to go back to Russian fossil fuels. ECFR's latest #polling report by @pawelzerka.bsky.social and @jkobzova.bsky.social shows voters are embracing greater self-reliance—not just in #defence, but in energy too. https://bit.ly/3PUhhOk

Iran attacked Saudi Arabia & the GCC. That has created a significant loss of trust and there will need to be a conversation about how to rebuild that trust, said Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan at @ecfr.eu's #ACM2026 in conversation with @jbdacey.bsky.social ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

How can Europe become more resilient in a changing global landscape shaped by an increasingly assertive China and uneasy transatlantic ties? @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social explained it in his @ecfr.eu insight at the #ACM2026. You can watch the recording here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hg4l...

[Policy Insights] #Trade - The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms, by @ajwsmall.bsky.social | @ecfr.eu www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...

🎙️ New podcast In his first public appearance since the announcement of the Iran–U.S. deal, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Farhan Al Saud joined @jbdacey.bsky.social to discuss what the agreement means for stability in the Middle East. https://ecfr.eu/podcasts/episode/peace-in-the-middle-east/

Leaving Vienna after a typically thought-provoking @ecfr.eu Annual Council Meeting. Main takeaway: in 2024 Europeans were denying the death of the transatlantic alliance; in 2025 they were between anger and bargaining; in 2026 they are at depression and approaching acceptance. Onwards.