✍️ New policy brief Europe's leaders understand the challenge China poses to its industry, economy and security. But the EU still responds one tariff, one sector and one restriction at a time. Instead, Europe should turn its system into its power, argues @ajwsmall.bsky.social https://bit.ly/3SdKSmt

With the European Council set to discuss China tomorrow, I have an @ecfr.eu paper out on how to put Europe’s approach on a new footing, leveraging the European system as a strategic asset: ecfr.eu/publication/...

Merz’s trip to China is less a bilateral tour than a signal-setting moment: his words and stance will influence whether Europe pivots to a more assertive China strategy or lets Beijing lock in a costly status quo, writes @ajwsmall.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social Full text: https://bit.ly/4kVtOvQ

Quick take on EU-China (or China-EU) climate joint statement: We'll do more of the same and we'll commit to make some commitments later. vs. last joint statement back in 2021 - in which China stated that it was going to 'strictly control coal consumption (it didn't)

EU readout on the summit in Beijing today; no surprises… see Finbarr’s thread for more

EU-China summit is underway in Beijing. In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day. First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...

Looks like the EU and China have a deliverable for their summit. Joint statement on climate is done, negotiations wrapped up overnight. Will go to ambassadors at Coreper II today for approval

I have a GMF piece up on the backstory behind this week's low-content EU-China summit. A "success" that won't feel like one: www.gmfus.org/news/just-sh...

📈 THURSDAY: EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit, a virtual discussion with GMF's ‪@noahbarkin.bsky.social‬, Gunnar Wiegand, @ajwsmall.bsky.social‬, Penny Naas and Eva Valle Lagares, Head of Unit, Far East, Directorate-General Trade, ‪@ec.europa.eu‬ 🎟️ Register now:

New Chinese trade data out today for May may deepen anxiety over trade diversion in Europe. China's exports to the US down 34.52% China's exports to the EU up 12% China's exports to Germany up 21.5% China's exports to France up 24.1% China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1%

Both had hoped to do this with the US…

Onshoring / friend-shoring critical raw material value chains should be included in NATO's upcoming 5% target! My call on European Ministers of Defence to break China's critical raw material chokehold ASAP. @euiss.bsky.social www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Merz messages on China in Bundestag speech: - China will remain "important partner" of Germany & Europe - Germany to pursue strategic de-risking, reduce one-sided dependencies. - Relations w/China increasingly defined by systemic rivalry. - Growing ties between China & Russia of "great concern"

China's trade data for April came out this morning. Have just had the chance to do some sums based on last April's numbers, and for Europe it is an absolute bloodbath. EU exports to China are down by huge numbers, while China's exports to EU members keep surging 🧵

Xi’s visit to Moscow this week is a usefully-timed reminder to European policymakers of the hard ceiling on China-Europe relations in the coming years. My @gmfus.bsky.social colleagues put a neat little video together laying it out... More here: www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew...

A few quick thoughts on how China is likely to deal with the current situation with India-Pakistan (since I am getting some questions...)

Breaking: Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting for the EU, fined TikTok a huge 530 million euro for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from access by Chinese authorities TikTok admitted hosting European data in China www.barrons.com/news/tiktok-...

EU spokesperson tells me: no plans to drop sanctions on China just because Beijing s lifting sanctions on some MEPs "The EU has not observed changes in the human rights situation in China/Xinjiang. Therefore, the Council maintains the China/Xinjiang - related designations"

🎙️ Can Germany cope with Xi and Trump at the same time? That was the question on Berlin Briefing. Thank you @richardwalker.bsky.social for having me on the podcast, and good to always hear what @ajwsmall.bsky.social of @gmfus.bsky.social has to say! 🔗 WATCH/LISTEN: www.dw.com/en/dwcom-ber...

Trump team has not said what it wants in trade talks, says EU https://www.ft.com/content/c9bec30c-e0b6-4d50-a3bb-feb11eadc13c

Readout: Maroš Šefčovič's meeting with Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer lasted “a couple of hours” and focused on three areas: - The EU's offer for a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal on all industrial goods - Global overcapacity in steel and aluminum - Supply chains of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals

"Top Trump official tells Europe to choose between US and Chinese communications tech" - article then focuses on satellites (where Europe is ramping up its own programs) and telecoms (where the US itself mostly uses European tech): www.ft.com/content/0a08...

Constructive phone call discussion with Premier Li Qiang. We took stock of the state of EU-China relations as we approach 50 years of diplomatic ties and on global issues. Read-out ↓ europa.eu/!FtFk49

And the Dutch tech autonomy crusade continues: The Dutch Central Bank now warns about the security of debit card payments, citing concerns about Europe’s over-reliance on American Visa and Mastercard. nos.nl/artikel/2560...

Europe risks "being less able to decide our own future and increasingly pushed around by large economic, technological and military blocs seeking to gain advantage over us". Think this will be the underlying concern informing EU China policy in the new landscape. "Rapprochement" is not an option...

Translation: “Why is Everyone Talking About China ‘Seizing’ Australia?” "I have nothing positive to say on this topic, nor any constructive suggestions. I simply wanted to share with all of you the immense shock I felt."

Helpful initial assessment of some of the early moves from China to take advantage of the USAID vacuum

Great scoop from the FT: EU probes BYD plant in Hungary over unfair Chinese subsidies. This would be massive for Brussels-Budapest & Brussels-Beijing relations if it proceeds on.ft.com/4kBDlHV

Xi Jinping, “angry” about the Li Ka-shing port deal, “had originally planned to use the Panama port issue as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the Trump administration”, Li “acting against Beijing’s interests”: www.wsj.com/world/china/...

Beijing’s line to Europe is - you have a Trump problem now, so should be more conciliatory to us; will aim to see what they get for nothing and try to exploit the situation, not make any gestures

(NBC News) - Some U.S. allies are considering scaling back the intelligence they share with Washington in response to the Trump administration’s conciliatory approach to Russia, four sources with direct knowledge of the discussions told NBC News. @nbcnews.com

Good overview from Germany’s SPD finance minister Jörg Kukies of the sorts of sums unlocked by Germany’s fiscal Zeitenwende if implemented:

🚨 Just in: Ursula von der Leyen unveils the "Rearm Europe Plan" to mobilise up to €800 billion in defence investment across the bloc. "We're living in the most momentum and dangerous of times," she says. "We are in an era of rearmament." "This is the moment for Europe. We're ready to step up."

A report commissioned by the German defense ministry says Beijing could purposefully delay wind projects, harvest sensitive data and remotely shut down turbines if given access to wind farms. www.politico.eu/article/chin...

NEW: I gained some insight into the Trump/DOGE plans for the State Department. They’ve even asked the Pentagon to rank embassies. www.politico.com/news/2025/02...

Great thread from Finbarr on Chinese efforts to woo Europe amid transatlantic train-wreck; but bottom line at the end: "overcapacity doesn't go away because Trump is in the White House" and China's backing to Russia is no less of a problem for European security either (even more of one, if anything)

Full text of President von der Leyen's speech in India, push to complete FTA; supply chains; security and defense partnership / defense industrial cooperation; connectivity; "not a time to place limits on our cooperation", and lots of US / China / Russia subtext... ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

“95% of NED’s funding is directly appropriated by Congress & is not considered foreign assistance. This funding therefore was not subject to the executive order freezing foreign assistance…However, despite being exempt, access to these funds has been inexplicably cut off” www.ned.org/statement-on...

Trump’s administration sketches out tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs on China, and resumes talks with Dutch, Japanese on ASML / Tokyo Electron: curbshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-25/trump-administration-seeks-more-restrictions-on-china-tech-weighs-nvidia-curbs

Useful list of the kind of pretend concessions Moscow could offer to Washington on China to give advocates of closer US-Russia ties political cover. Also worth noting that "undermining European competitiveness" is seen as a positive sell to the Trump administration too

Here’s our piece on the state of play in the Ukraine-US mineral “deal”. Tldr: the American proposal is unclear, punitive and makes no sense. There are perfectly good ways for Ukraine to reward America for support by letting it exploit mineral deposits. This is not one of them.

Blimey. Asked about Trump, Merz says he’s in close contact with European leaders about becoming “independent” from US (and confesses “I never thought I’d say that on TV show”). Casts doubt on value of NATO summit in June. This from a die-hard Atlanticist. Things are moving fast.

europa.eu/!NQn6fg Things you always wanted to know about the EU-US trade & investment relationship, about “reciprocal” tariffs, whether VAT is a tariff (spoiler alert: no) - have a look👇

Alice Weidel, leader of the German far right party AfD, met with the former Chinese ambassador Wu Ken "once a month", Bild reports "The dates were not listed in her calendar and were supposed to remain a secret." www.bild.de/news/inland/...

The same holds true for European security - PRC backing for Russia isn’t going away either. Europe will have to deal with the existential challenge to their industries from “China Shock 2.0” and the China-enabled threat to their security at the same time as all the Trump dynamics.

Before delayed meeting with Wang Yi, I asked Kallas if her msg to 🇨🇳 on Russia has changed She says no. "The msg is v clear, if China wants to have good relations with Europe, they have to stop enabling Russia's war." Kallas says 80% of dual use goods reach Russia via China

📺 On Thursday 2/20, join GMF experts Ian Lesser, @kberzina.bsky.social, @lindsaygorman.bsky.social and @ajwsmall.bsky.social for a virtual discussion on key recommendations for the new administration's foreign policy, exploring issues from NATO to China to AI. 🎟️ Register: bit.ly/3CPyq51