Updated lineup | Event | Europe after Nord Stream: the limits of energy security | 23 June Kalina Damianova joins @katjabego.bsky.social, James Black & Bojan Pancevski to assess how to defend European infrastructure & strengthen energy independence. Register👇 www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...

📢 New Event | Europe after Nord Stream: the limits of energy security | 23 June, at @chathamhouse.org & online What did the Nord Stream sabotage reveal about Europe’s energy security? Panel: @katjabego.bsky.social, James Black & Bojan Pancevski Register: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...

Took more than a century, but looks like we have a new worst deal signed in Versailles.

You know when in medieval paintings cats don’t quite look like cats? I found the taxidermy version!

You know when in medieval paintings cats don’t quite look like cats? I found the taxidermy version!

So this *exactly* why Europe needs to build its own capabilities. The tech sovereignty package has many good elements, but we need more urgency and a far more tangible plan of next steps. The EC can’t magic up all solutions, this needs industry and others to act too. www.bbc.com/news/article...

"It's not FAANG anymore. It's MANGOS. MANGOS: Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI, SpaceX." A not-insignificant chance two of those mangoes may go bankrupt within the next two years.

Stalin's ghost appears to Putin in a dream. Putin asks him how to handle his growing troubles. Stalin: "Two bits of advice: First, execute half the Russian population. Second, paint the Kremlin blue." Putin asks, confused, "Why blue?" Stalin: "I knew you wouldn't object to the first part!"

This will quite radically upend the power balance in Europe. UK and France used to lead on the military, Germany on the economy. In several years, no more. How does Britain handle this new (diminished) role? Can Germany handle doing both? What about Poland and Ukraine?

... And there's another massive crack in the (unsustainable) business model behind the AI boom: "Chinese-developed language models now account for roughly 61% of token consumption among the top 10 models on OpenRouter, a platform used by thousands of AI startups." cryptobriefing.com/american-ai-...

"Only one in 10 Europeans now see US as an ally." Too few policymakers (on either side of the Atlantic) have internalised that it is going to be effectively impossible to go back to normal. Even if we do get a more Transatlantic-minded US administration next. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

RIP FCAS: “Berlin pulls plug on Franco-German fighter jet” On European defence integration and collaboration, it’s two steps forward, one step back (or sometimes three). giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Schloss Neuhardenberg, on the outskirts of Berlin. The site where most of the planning for the 20 July Plot to assassinate Hitler took place. A school during most of the DDR years, it was given back to the Hardenberg family after the fall of the wall.

The Napoleonic tradition really does nail it sometimes.

We are in a new Europe. (Both spotted in Berlin Brandenburg)

We are in a new Europe. (Both spotted in Berlin Brandenburg)

I've had a look into the Dutch experience of being squeezed by Washington and Beijing simultaneously. With very helpful insights by @katjabego.bsky.social, @kimvsparrentak.bsky.social and @reiniervanlanschot.volteuropa.org. #TechSovereignty

Is dit de meest zelf-destructieve maand die iemand ooit heeft doorgemaakt? nos.nl/artikel/2616...

Gradually, then suddenly? “Vladimir Putin has been told by senior Russian officials that the war in Ukraine is becoming unaffordable, the most serious sign of internal division in Moscow since the full-scale invasion began.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

More of less this. The key question for Europe for the decade ahead is whether it can find new political leadership, which not only makes the right decisions for Europe’s future, but also proves able to get the ageing boomer generation to vote (and make sacrifices) for it.

"The Russian government has toldbanks including its federal reserve that they should shoot down Ukrainian drones themselves, as well as handling the costs." Russia leading the way on whole of society, public-private collaboration on countering hybrid warfare.😅 www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

"The Russian government has toldbanks including its federal reserve that they should shoot down Ukrainian drones themselves, as well as handling the costs." Russia leading the way on whole of society, public-private collaboration on countering hybrid warfare.😅 www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

Perhaps they should do something to save/strengthen Europe's EV battery industry then: "EU commissioners are annoyed their Strasbourg trips involve a pit stop to recharge their EVs — whose batteries cannot quite manage the 440-kilometer haul from Brussels." www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Good news: The Dutch Government - after a months-long saga - is *finally* blocking the US take-over of Solvinity, the company that manages the Netherlands' highly sensitive online identity management system (which basically underpins most government services). nos.nl/artikel/2615...

Good news: The Dutch Government - after a months-long saga - is *finally* blocking the US take-over of Solvinity, the company that manages the Netherlands' highly sensitive online identity management system (which basically underpins most government services). nos.nl/artikel/2615...

Increased defence spending, a boom in defence technology and dual-use AI, and a drive towards technology sovereignty could reconfigure the race for artificial intelligence. Read @katjabego.bsky.social's latest analysis for Chatham House ⤵️

The clumsiness surrounding all of this is also massively damaging to the UK itself. The UK had two key cards that kept it relevant outside of the EU: a leading military and its unwavering stalwart role on Ukraine. It's being outspent by others on the former, and now also undermining the latter.

Adding to the case he could be a good mediator or negotiator for the EU in any Ukraine-Russia talks: he also speaks Russian, and spent several years there early on in his career.

Merkel as the EU's mediator in Ukraine-Russia talks? No. No European involved in the Minsk debacles should be brought back in for this. But then who else? Few credible leaders with the stature and personality who Putin would respect. united24media.com/world/eu-rep...

Key here is Washington too aggressively weaponizing the dependencies its tech giants have created. This - in combination with (most of) of US tech now willing to do their "patriotic duty" for the White House - is going to see more spooked allies rush to disentangle themselves- no matter the cost.

High levels of defence spending, growing sovereignty push, and spillover from Europe's defence tech boom (now the quickest growing market globally) provide Europe with the levers to catch up on AI. Question is now whether Europe will seize them. New report: www.chathamhouse.org/2026/04/how-...

High levels of defence spending, growing sovereignty push, and spillover from Europe's defence tech boom (now the quickest growing market globally) provide Europe with the levers to catch up on AI. Question is now whether Europe will seize them. New report: www.chathamhouse.org/2026/04/how-...

🆕Research paper by @katjabego.bsky.social @chathamhouse.org Europe Programme on how a combination of high levels of defence spending, a boom in defence tech and dual-use AI, and accelerating tech sovereignty drives could reconfigure the AI race. Find out more: www.chathamhouse.org/2026/04/how-...

Whether that assessment is true or not is almost besides the point. The fact that Russia (noting that Medvedev is of course not exactly the most reliable voice here) may *believe* the US won’t come to Europe’s aid means deterrence has already been seriously weakened.

We are essentially playing Putin sympathiser whack-a-mole. Every time Europe gets rid of one, we almost immediately get a new one to take their place. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

A helpful move for European strategic autonomy in space: "The French MoD has made a definitive strategic choice, formally selecting [Franco-British] Eutelsat's OneWeb constellation as the primary connectivity backbone for its armed forces until at least 2030." www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/...

“US to delay delivery of weapons to several European countries - including the Nordics and the Baltics, because of Iran war.” But next week the White House will be outraged again when Europe attempts to strengthen its own production base, rather than buy US weapons. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

“US to delay delivery of weapons to several European countries - including the Nordics and the Baltics, because of Iran war.” But next week the White House will be outraged again when Europe attempts to strengthen its own production base, rather than buy US weapons. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

KLM cancels dozens of flights in response to high jet fuel prices - starting late April. Today, the last oil tankers which started their journeys before the start of the war reach their destinations. The world may look rather different in just a couple of weeks. nos.nl/artikel/2610...

We finally have this bubble’s Pets dot com 🥳 “Shoe company Allbirds just announced that it plans to - Sell all of its brands and footwear assets - Rebrand the company to Newbird AI - Use a $50M convertible financing facility to "acquire high-performance GPU assets”

“the pope is weak on crime” has gotta be one of the funniest things any politician has ever said in history

Quo vadis, Europa?

Event | AI and National Security: Who's Really in Control? | 20 Apr, 6pm BST @katjabego.bsky.social, Gen Sir Richard Barrons, @johnthornhill.bsky.social, @joycehakmeh.bsky.social & Yasmin Afina discuss who controls AI, and on whose terms. Register: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...

Hungary has chosen Europe. Europe has always chosen Hungary. A country reclaims its European path. The Union grows stronger.

So against expectations, Orban has apparently conceded. Democracy has won out tonight (some lessons there for other countries).

Bluebells of Highgate Wood are here

🚨 Excellent: "In order to become less dependent on the United States", the Dutch Ministry of Defence has just announced it will work together with Dutch telecoms company and Thales to build a dedicated sovereign cloud to store sensitive and classified data. www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieu...

🚨 Excellent: "In order to become less dependent on the United States", the Dutch Ministry of Defence has just announced it will work together with Dutch telecoms company and Thales to build a dedicated sovereign cloud to store sensitive and classified data. www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieu...