Whether that assessment is true or not is almost besides the point. The fact that Russia (noting that Medvedev is of course not exactly the most reliable voice here) may *believe* the US won’t come to Europe’s aid means deterrence has already been seriously weakened.

We are essentially playing Putin sympathiser whack-a-mole. Every time Europe gets rid of one, we almost immediately get a new one to take their place. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

A helpful move for European strategic autonomy in space: "The French MoD has made a definitive strategic choice, formally selecting [Franco-British] Eutelsat's OneWeb constellation as the primary connectivity backbone for its armed forces until at least 2030." www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/...

“US to delay delivery of weapons to several European countries - including the Nordics and the Baltics, because of Iran war.” But next week the White House will be outraged again when Europe attempts to strengthen its own production base, rather than buy US weapons. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

“US to delay delivery of weapons to several European countries - including the Nordics and the Baltics, because of Iran war.” But next week the White House will be outraged again when Europe attempts to strengthen its own production base, rather than buy US weapons. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

KLM cancels dozens of flights in response to high jet fuel prices - starting late April. Today, the last oil tankers which started their journeys before the start of the war reach their destinations. The world may look rather different in just a couple of weeks. nos.nl/artikel/2610...

We finally have this bubble’s Pets dot com 🥳 “Shoe company Allbirds just announced that it plans to - Sell all of its brands and footwear assets - Rebrand the company to Newbird AI - Use a $50M convertible financing facility to "acquire high-performance GPU assets”

“the pope is weak on crime” has gotta be one of the funniest things any politician has ever said in history

Quo vadis, Europa?

Event | AI and National Security: Who's Really in Control? | 20 Apr, 6pm BST @katjabego.bsky.social, Gen Sir Richard Barrons, @johnthornhill.bsky.social, @joycehakmeh.bsky.social & Yasmin Afina discuss who controls AI, and on whose terms. Register: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...

Hungary has chosen Europe. Europe has always chosen Hungary. A country reclaims its European path. The Union grows stronger.

So against expectations, Orban has apparently conceded. Democracy has won out tonight (some lessons there for other countries).

Bluebells of Highgate Wood are here

🚨 Excellent: "In order to become less dependent on the United States", the Dutch Ministry of Defence has just announced it will work together with Dutch telecoms company and Thales to build a dedicated sovereign cloud to store sensitive and classified data. www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieu...

🚨 Excellent: "In order to become less dependent on the United States", the Dutch Ministry of Defence has just announced it will work together with Dutch telecoms company and Thales to build a dedicated sovereign cloud to store sensitive and classified data. www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieu...

And there we go again! UK Navy, together with Norwegians, foiled attempts by Russian submarines to survey the routes of undersea cables in month-long operation. The world's attention may be elsewhere, but the shadow war in Europe continues. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

And there we go again! UK Navy, together with Norwegians, foiled attempts by Russian submarines to survey the routes of undersea cables in month-long operation. The world's attention may be elsewhere, but the shadow war in Europe continues. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

Tucker Carlson will run in 2028 - and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he won. For now, he's playing his cards well.

Worse places from which to herald in the end of the world.

Seen several suggestions they apparently paid in euros (not yuan) too… “French-owned container ship braves passage through Strait of Hormuz giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Seen several suggestions they apparently paid in euros (not yuan) too… “French-owned container ship braves passage through Strait of Hormuz giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

It's been Schrödinger's Article 5 for at least a year now. Its deterrent effect has already significantly eroded, regardless of whether he walks this back. Europe needs to act accordingly. It's time the EU strengthens its own mutual defence clause - and brings the UK, Norway and Iceland along too.

It's been Schrödinger's Article 5 for at least a year now. Its deterrent effect has already significantly eroded, regardless of whether he walks this back. Europe needs to act accordingly. It's time the EU strengthens its own mutual defence clause - and brings the UK, Norway and Iceland along too.

If Iran doesn't get to go to the World Cup, Italy would be able to take their spot as the highest-ranked, non-qualified team. So that's some silver lining for Italians to look forward to once the oil rationing and bread lines start.

If Iran doesn't get to go to the World Cup, Italy would be able to take their spot as the highest-ranked, non-qualified team. So that's some silver lining for Italians to look forward to once the oil rationing and bread lines start.

Germany: Let's become more sovereign in space! Also Germany: US-based Rocket Lab "has secured approval from German authorities to acquire laser communications firm Mynaric, [...] after prolonged scrutiny over national security concerns." spacenews.com/rocket-lab-w...

It’s not just the US drop here that is noteworthy - but also the fact that Europe is shouldering it all alone. Canada, Japan, Australia? None really stepped up. For those who hoped for a global “coalition of the willing” to keep the rules-based order alive, this is not the best omen.

"For Norway, Iceland, Ukraine and others, the stark reality of the new world order has started to bite. “There is no NATO, there is no U.S.,” said a Ukrainian official. “There are only weapons, drones, ammo. And there is EU.”" www.politico.eu/article/defe...

Location of the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. Europe desperately needs to rekindle that spirit again.

The EU would never be so unwise to let itself get dependent in strategic tech areas!

Posters from early in the Ukraine war (spring 2022) - let's take the sentiment to heart this time around.

everyone I still know who's inside the country tells me russians are pretty depressed. bad news but historically speaking it's good for world literature

Survey finds that 86% of Europeans think a sudden US move to restrict EU access to digital services is "plausible" and "shouldn’t be ruled out," and 59% called it “already a real and concrete risk.” Another case of European public opinion being ahead of its leaders. www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Survey finds that 86% of Europeans think a sudden US move to restrict EU access to digital services is "plausible" and "shouldn’t be ruled out," and 59% called it “already a real and concrete risk.” Another case of European public opinion being ahead of its leaders. www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Europe’s Defence Strain: Demand Signals, Procurement Hurdles, Tech Opportunities 📆26 Mar 5PM CET📍Online 🗣️Pierre Vandier @guntramwolff.bsky.social Guillaume de la Brosse @katjabego.bsky.social @nathanlane.bsky.social Esben Gadsbøll & @cristinacaffarra.bsky.social Register: ow.ly/33uq50Ywepe #EconSky

I take it back! Well done! “The government will increase [by 8%] funding of the BBC World Service over the next three years, the foreign secretary is to announce on Thursday.” www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

When Danish troops deployed to Greenland in January, they brought explosives to destroy runways and blood supplies to treat the wounded. All that to counter a U.S. invasion.

Really looking forward to joining this discussion next week! In excellent company to discuss some of the hurdles and fragmentation behind Europe's rearmament drive - but also to think about the big opportunity provided by high levels of defence spending to fuel Europe's tech sovereignty ambitions.

If the energy crisis in the Middle East further deepens, it unfortunately won't just be Hungary et al breaking rank on Russian energy. Some of my thoughts on the ways in which Russia is both a beneficiary but also a loser of the war in Iran for @rferl.org.web.brid.gy www.rferl.org/amp/russia-i...

Over $70 billion burned on the metaverse. Europe’s single biggest disadvantage versus the US in tech is not regulation, a lack of innovation or “grit”. It’s the fact we are not sitting on the kind of entrenched cash piles (owed to past success) that mean that this isn’t a bankruptcy event.

Over $70 billion burned on the metaverse. Europe’s single biggest disadvantage versus the US in tech is not regulation, a lack of innovation or “grit”. It’s the fact we are not sitting on the kind of entrenched cash piles (owed to past success) that mean that this isn’t a bankruptcy event.

Alexander Stubb at @chathamhouse.org: The threat from Russia and the changing role of the US provides an opportunity for Europe. Europe needs to grow its outside-facing geopolitical heft, but should also improve its internal capacity for decision-making (on two-speed Europe and enlargement)

Narratively having Ever Given getting stuck in 2021 to set up Hormuz in 2026 is great foreshadowing. You want your audience to understand the basics of international shipping in a lower stakes context so you drop the real plot without a lot of saggy exposition about the minutiae of cargo logistics.

Drones free of Chinese components and dependencies: very impressive if Ukraine gets there. Yet another drone-related challenge where we should really be learning from Ukraine: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/w...

Drones free of Chinese components and dependencies: very impressive if Ukraine gets there. Yet another drone-related challenge where we should really be learning from Ukraine: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/w...

📣 Earlier today @katjabego.bsky.social (Senior Research Fellow, @cheurope.bsky.social) chaired the highly anticipated session on ‘Drones: The defence buzz word’ at the @chathamhouse.org Security and Defence Summit #CHSecDef More about the conference: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/c...

The trouble is, in part, American and right-wing British media painting EU leaders as weak, indecisive, decadent, incompetent or stupid. For decades. Even Paul Krugman went along during the euro crisis. No wonder some Americans (and Brexiteers before them) have come to believe the caricature.

A fundamental shift is taking place. While some European leaders may still be kowtowing to the Trump administration, the European public want more independence from Washington. https://bit.ly/4tBhYL4