📣 Earlier today @katjabego.bsky.social (Senior Research Fellow, @cheurope.bsky.social) chaired the highly anticipated session on ‘Drones: The defence buzz word’ at the @chathamhouse.org Security and Defence Summit #CHSecDef More about the conference: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/c...

The trouble is, in part, American and right-wing British media painting EU leaders as weak, indecisive, decadent, incompetent or stupid. For decades. Even Paul Krugman went along during the euro crisis. No wonder some Americans (and Brexiteers before them) have come to believe the caricature.

A fundamental shift is taking place. While some European leaders may still be kowtowing to the Trump administration, the European public want more independence from Washington. https://bit.ly/4tBhYL4

They should make a ski discipline that starts with a ski slope jump, and then continues into a downhill slalom race. (a non-zero chance this one is already buried in 200 other ski races the Norwegians have been winning).

📯 We are happy to announce that as of today @katjabego.bsky.social has joined Europe Programme at @chathamhouse.org as Senior Research Fellow. Welcome to the team Katja! Learn more about Katja’s work and her latest publications at: www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our...

New piece on the strategic vacuum in Washington when it comes to understanding what a more independent, sovereign Europe actually means. I worry that even a more transatlantic-minded future administration will adapt very poorly to no longer being able to call all the shots in the alliance.

Some of the strategic decision-making out of Westminster continues to astound. At a time when the world needs the BBC World Service more than it has done in decades - this? The kind of short-sighted, peace dividend-era thing to do, at a time when our geopolitical holiday is decidedly over.

Outgoing Dutch State Secretary of Defence tells podcast that European countries have ways to jailbreak F-35s and make them fully European, if the Americans were to restrict access: "I'm not allowed to tell you more." (Probably shouldn't have said any of this at all, lol) www.bnr.nl/podcast/boek...

"This focus on the short-term is largely justified. Europe needs at least five to ten years to rearm, while according to NATO’s own estimates, Russia may attempt an incursion into NATO territory in as soon as four. The current European response still lacks urgency and strategic vision." #WakeUpCall

"This prospect of a more autonomous Europe, less beholden to the US, carries the seeds for significant future tensions. Managing these tensions will require more strategic thinking and careful management on both sides of the Atlantic." @chathamhouse.org www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/what...

The other blue banana:

New piece on the strategic vacuum in Washington when it comes to understanding what a more independent, sovereign Europe actually means. I worry that even a more transatlantic-minded future administration will adapt very poorly to no longer being able to call all the shots in the alliance.

The Dutch coalition agreement has just dropped - and it calls for the creation of a European Five Eyes 💪 www.kabinetsformatie2025.nl/site/binarie...

When it comes to actually adopting AI - rather than just pumping billions into developing it - Europe isn't performing all that badly at all. A look at history (and China) shows us that it is exactly this race to quickly diffuse a technology that can prove the far more consequential one.

He doesn’t actually believe this. But for NATO to survive (in its current form) Europe needs to remain reliant on the US. And it’s clear that’s not the long-run direction of travel.

He doesn’t actually believe this. But for NATO to survive (in its current form) Europe needs to remain reliant on the US. And it’s clear that’s not the long-run direction of travel.

This is the correct take. And what do we think will happen if (when?) the civil unrest in the US gets worse? It's simple. If you look like a political basket case, your currency becomes much less appealing.

Rather remarkable that it's really not unlikely at all that European countries will soon start to receive political asylum applications from the United States.

It's not just Sweden and the Danes: Dutch pension fund ABP - among the largest in the world - has also been rapidly reducing its US Treasuries holdings over the past few months. It still had $29 billion worth in March - down to $19 billion by September. May be lower now. nos.nl/artikel/2599...

It's not just Sweden and the Danes: Dutch pension fund ABP - among the largest in the world - has also been rapidly reducing its US Treasuries holdings over the past few months. It still had $29 billion worth in March - down to $19 billion by September. May be lower now. nos.nl/artikel/2599...

Many things will take far longer to disentangle, but this is one area where we will start to see decoupling straight away: Europe and Canada simply will no longer feel as obligated to join in on ill-advised US wars and other foreign policy adventurism. End of an era. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Exactly this. This is Trump giving in, just like he gave in to the countries which ratcheted up the pressure during last year's tariff negotiations. Something the EU ought to have done. Lessons to be learned here.

Whenever you think Europe has finally understood the existential urgency of the current political moment…

I think this piece I wrote in February 2025 has held up quite well: www.chathamhouse.org/2025/02/trum...

Only took three months for the US to weaponize the US-UK Tech deal: "British officials on Monday confirmed the US suspended the deal last week, with one saying the Trump administration was pushing for UK concessions in areas of trade outside the tech partnership." www.ft.com/content/afd4...

Only took three months for the US to weaponize the US-UK Tech deal: "British officials on Monday confirmed the US suspended the deal last week, with one saying the Trump administration was pushing for UK concessions in areas of trade outside the tech partnership." www.ft.com/content/afd4...

not the kind of behavior I expect from the winner of the fifa peace prize

Alarming events in nuclear proliferation, space security and hybrid warfare meant 2025 was a year in which the international security order deteriorated. Read the latest from @mgmessmer.bsky.social and @katjabego.bsky.social⤵️

You know, there is also a world where, in a decade or so, JD Vance and the Heritage Foundation receive the Charlemagne prize for their pivotal work in service of European integration.

Good piece in the @wsj.com on the US's National Security Strategy - which includes some of my thoughts on what this means for Europe. Boils down to: No more "Trump whisperers", European leaders can no longer deny that the transatlantic relationship as we knew it is dead. www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Good piece in the @wsj.com on the US's National Security Strategy - which includes some of my thoughts on what this means for Europe. Boils down to: No more "Trump whisperers", European leaders can no longer deny that the transatlantic relationship as we knew it is dead. www.wsj.com/world/europe...

The Netherlands talks a big game about tech sovereignty, but is now about to allow the domestic cloud provider that underpins its national digital identity system and several other critical government services to be sold off to a new American owner. Incomprehensible. nos.nl/artikel/2591...

The Netherlands talks a big game about tech sovereignty, but is now about to allow the domestic cloud provider that underpins its national digital identity system and several other critical government services to be sold off to a new American owner. Incomprehensible. nos.nl/artikel/2591...

A global Cloudflare outage as we're in Berlin discussing European tech sovereignty. A little on the nose!

Detailed explainer piece by the BBC about what it would actually mean for Europe to build a drone wall - and how the debate around the technical and financial feasibility of such a plan has evolved in recent weeks. Includes comments by me. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Detailed explainer piece by the BBC about what it would actually mean for Europe to build a drone wall - and how the debate around the technical and financial feasibility of such a plan has evolved in recent weeks. Includes comments by me. www.bbc.com/news/article...

So if the survival of Europe's industrial base wasn't enough of a motivation not to go for a Chinese EV, not having your car weaponized against you sounds like another solid one.

finally some competitive advantage for the Dutch: unlike the Chinese, we are not weaponizing your electric bus.

Despite the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has continued to invest heavily in building out its presence and revamping Russia's existing bases in the Arctic.

So if the survival of Europe's industrial base wasn't enough of a motivation not to go for a Chinese EV, not having your car weaponized against you sounds like another solid one.

Norway tested two different types of electric buses this summer -one from a Dutch and one from a Chinese manufacturer- to assess cybersecurity risks. The tests revealed that the Chinese bus could be controlled and turned off remotely, while the European one could not. www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/os...

The very on brand cover of Japan’s defence white paper.

Hostile media environment aside, I think GL-PvdA wavering a bit on defence (not committing to the increased NATO norm beyond 2030) may prove to have been a pretty costly mistake. Purely anecdotal, but I know of several people who were on the fence where that became the deciding factor.

Voor iedereen die hoopt op de stemmers uit het buitenland: D66 doet het uiteraard altijd goed bij deze groep, maar veel stemmers hebben vorige week al gestemd. Voor het PVV verval en de echte groeispurt van D66. Een moment opname van een week geleden dus (zag je in 2023 ook af in de resultaten).

There is only one certainty in Dutch politics: foreign media overselling the Wilders angle.

Leestip bij de #BetrouwbreBronnen van heden! omny.fm/shows/betrou...

My primer on tomorrow's Dutch elections, and what they may mean for Europe:

Leest allen dit stuk van Katja Bego.

After the collapse of a short-lived right-wing government in the Netherlands, traditional parties may make a comeback — a shift that will be welcomed in Brussels and beyond. Read @katjabego.bsky.social's latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️