As the year closes, the world is preparing for a volatile 2026, set to be defined by the consequences of unresolved conflicts. Before we turn the page, revisit ECFR's key analyses about the warfare in 2025. Thank you for following our work—see you next year!✨ https://bit.ly/48XCqMS

Alles still! vergeblich lauschet Man der Krähe heisrem Schrei. Keiner Fichte Wipfel rauschet, Und kein Bächlein summt vorbei. (Fontane)

A first step to bolster the radical right in Europe would be to ensure their content can get out there. Hence, sanctioning and trying to create a chilling effect on content moderation efforts. Then the money pours in. I expect huge amounts of funding to pour into the far-right this year.

A transatlantic showdown over tech policy (as opposed to, say, net zero) could actually have a unifying & galvanising political effect within the EU. The union’s digital regulations are broadly popular and many voters actually want more, not fewer, controls on Big Tech. yougov.co.uk/technology/a...

Well said @ec.europa.eu “The EU is an open, rules-based single market, with the sovereign right to regulate economic activity in line with our democratic values and international commitments” www.ft.com/content/c4e7...

As I wrote for @agendapublica.es last week: “A third way that the US government could seek to advance its agenda within Europe would be to target the officials involved in decisions it dislikes” agendapublica.es/noticia/2047...

"It’s clear that the future lies in the joint financing of European priorities, whether in support for Ukraine, security and defense policy, or necessary large investments in infrastructure" @nadiacalvino.eib.org tells @agendapublica.es's @mlopezplana.bsky.social agendapublica.es/noticia/2049...

This year was shaped by US President Donald Trump’s trade war and his National Security Strategy. Revisit ECFR’s top three publications on the Trump administration that influenced political debate in 2025. Thank you for following our work—see you next year!✨ https://bit.ly/48XCqMS

Though worth noting the French and Italians argue that in bouncing the Germans and Finns into accepting a path towards Eurobonds they have put EU Europe's geopolitical ambitions on a more sustainable long term footing

NEW: In this moment of profound uncertainty over the global monetary order, Europe needs to move swiftly on becoming a truly global currency issuer, writes @shahinvallee.bsky.social www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-g...

PS. A downside is that Europe is still vulnerable to US pressure to hand the Russian claims over (that would have been the case for the original reparation loan too). See point 5 in @agathedemarais.bsky.social's good piece below. / bsky.app/profile/agat...

What to make of the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine? @agathedemarais.bsky.social's 7-point analysis is the definitive assessment (point number 6 surely being the most transformative). ecfr.eu/article/seve...

What can we make of the EU decision to issue a €90bn loan to Ukraine - without tapping into Russia's immobilised reserves? In my latest piece for @ecfr.eu I outline seven takeaways from the decision and why there is (much) more to it than meets the eye [Thread - 1/9] ecfr.eu/article/seve...

Honestly, from an EU-wide perspective this could be the most significant thing about last night's decision:

Debt without unanimity… is that the long-term direction for common European resources? The NextGenEU fund runs out end of 2026. If a successor EU instrument cannot be established, an intergovernmental alternative (a coalition of states borrowing to invest together) should be on the table.

"Europeans must therefore pay attention not only to the document’s contents, but to the policies which the Trump administration is actively pursuing." ecfr.eu/article/why-...

A quick explanation of how this borrowing to assist Ukraine will work. "Enhanced cooperation" means EU law is being used, but some Member States opt out. The process has been applied a few times before, but never before re the EU budget. 1/

While Estonia’s is protected due to weakened Russian capabilities, stronger European defence cooperation and its own preparedness, NATO’s European members should be reassured but not complacent, argue @jyshapiro.bsky.social and Jennifer Kavanagh in a new report on the Russian threat in Estonia. A 🧵

The EU-Mercosur deal is not about economics, but about geopolitics - today looks like a good day to re-up this @ecfr.eu piece on the geopolitical case for the agreement

The choice EU leaders face today is not the reparations loan vs. "Eurobonds". The choice is agreeing on a workable solution that rapidly gives a lot of money to Ukraine vs. going back to the drawing board with no clear idea where to go next while Ukraine's money is running out. Should be obvious.

ECFR's editorial director and senior policy fellow, Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social, writes in Agenda Publica about Trump's National Security Strategy. "For a Europe looking out for its own well-being, a "return to hard facts" is the only possible response." https://bit.ly/3Yv8F0W

Washington threatens European groups over EU’s treatment of US tech giants ft.trib.al/6cdxtSO

Great analysis, which ties into what I've been complaining about re: European delusions about Trump's movement and Atlanticism. Trump, Vance and their backers treat the EU as an adversary - the EU will have to do the same, whether European leaders committed to the union want it or not.

This is really worth reading. As I have also been saying @jeremycliffe.bsky.social points out that Europe isn’t nearly as powerless as it thinks it is.

I full agree with @jeremycliffe.bsky.social “the continent needs a warp-speed effort to reduce its dependence on the US.”

Good piece 👇

Europe imagines it can win at Washington’s “neo-royalist” game. Trump sees Europe as an extension of his domestic retribution campaign. Both are wrong, and both underestimate Europe’s ability to fight back (if it finds the will). My thoughts for @agendapublica.es: agendapublica.es/noticia/2047...

If Merz can deliver on both the frozen assets loan and the Mercosur deal, this will be the best week for his (now rather frayed) “Germany is back” narrative since the debt brake vote in mid-March.

Often, Berlin is the main veto player when it comes to decisive EU action. But this week, for once, Berlin is a key driver of getting both the reparations loan and Mercosur over the finish line. This time, the EU's ability to act act fully hinges on Rome's and Paris's will to jump.

"A market correction will shift attention to alternative models. This will in turn create new opportunities for Europe, which has strengths in applied AI and the chance to build the most trusted AI stack in the world." www.ft.com/content/0308...

yes! I would add to that Obama's election and the rise of Autotune.

Someone needs to write a book on world affairs in 2007-9 as a sort of pre-history of the late-2020s: - early rise of Facebook & Twitter - launch of the iPhone - Putin’s turn against the West - global financial crisis - first tremors of eurozone crisis - Beijing Olympics - emergence of the G20

New: Ukraine would be earmarked to join the EU by 2027 under a fast-tracked proposal being discussed in US-brokered negotiations to end Russia’s war, in a move that would rewrite the bloc’s accession procedures. w/ @henryjfoy.ft.com @maxseddon.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/e504...

This is where sycophancy gets you

Hungary's Viktor Orbán is looking for ways to keep power if he loses next year’s election, Bloomberg reports. He is considering shifting into the presidency and turning the largely ceremonial office into Hungary’s dominant political post, an idea he raised after meeting Trump.

🚨 Big news: EU countries have approved the long-term immobilisation of the Russian Central Bank under Article 122, which requires only a qualified majority. This is a key element of the reparations loan.

For the EU, there are, in broad strokes, three long-term future scenarios now that it is embroiled in a two-front economic war, and faces a real security threat from Russia.

The solution: build “just enough” European capability across four strategic tech layers—not full autarky, but enough resilience to avoid coercion. /7

Europe must urgently build an independent “EuroStack”of critical technologies — or risk foreign powers weaponising its digital dependencies, argues @giorgosverdi.bsky.social in a new report out today. A 🧵

"The big question for Europe is: when are you gonna fight back, guys?" ask former Obama staffers Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes. "He doesn't respect you, he's interfering in your political affairs, he's talking shit...at some point stop lathering him with praise" open.spotify.com/episode/6USY...

Mark Leonard, director of the ECFR, wrote an op-ed in The Economist on how the European leaders should respond to the rise of MAGA in Europe. https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/12/08/its-time-europe-got-to-grips-with-the-maga-challenge-writes-mark-leonard

I agree. I understand the urge to keep trying to stop Trump doing more harm to UK interests, but Starmer & other European leaders need an honest conversation with voters about the effect of US abandonment on our security, & what we now need to do to protect ourselves.

Time to get over your X, Europe! Our new policy brief from @giorgosverdi.bsky.social warns that the European Union must urgently develop an independent “EuroStack” of critical technologies to solve the reliance from American tech. @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social https://bit.ly/48ZLCBA

‼️ Tune in today at 14:30 for a discussion - live from Luanda - on #Angola's middle power ambitions and how the country is navigating multipolarity in an increasingly competitive geopolitical environment. @ecfr.eu Sign up here 📝 👇

Should the decline in international aid for Ukraine mean that Russia emerges as the victor, Europe would face a strategic threat & fiscal burden which far exceeds the costs of sustained support for Kyiv. https://ecfr.eu/article/fragile-frontline-the-consequences-of-declining-military-aid-to-ukraine/

Bulgarians have turned out in their thousands to protest against the government. The EU needs to address the country’s democratic backsliding and avoid it becoming part of Viktor Orban’s camp, writes Maria Simenova and Vessela Tcherneva. https://bit.ly/3Ms6hFF

In 1945, Thomas Mann declared, "The really characteristic and dangerous aspect of National Socialism was its mixture of robust modernity and an affirmative stance toward progress combined with dreams of the past: a highly technological romanticism.” www.unpopularfront.news/p/talking-to...

The way I'd put it is that there's currently a global struggle between democracy and nationalist gangster-capitalism, that this struggle is simultaneously unfolding both within and between states, and that the US currently sits at its epicentre

The Brazilian documentary APOCALYPSE IN THE TROPICS by Petra Costa and the short film LOOKING FOR A DONKEY by Venezuelan director Juan Vicente Manrique take home IDA Awards