Our cover this week

China's mineral monopoly does not only give Beijing coercive power over European defense and industrial sectors, but it can also hold the wider EU competitiveness agenda hostage. 1/

In Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion, Tobias Gehrke and Nina Schmelzer map the key leverage points available to the EU across trade, investment and critical infrastructure which can build an economic deterrence posture against China. https://bit.ly/413rF8c

To end this mutually destructive war, the international community must redouble its efforts to bring about an urgently needed cease-fire that, unlike the one announced in June last year, is seriously negotiated and can hold, writes Ellie Geranmayeh www.foreignaffairs.com/can-america-...

we dug into the material shockwave from Iran war www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/war...

„Separately, the Pentagon notified Congress on Monday that it intended to divert about $750 million in funding provided by NATO countries through the PURL program to restock the U.S. military’s own inventories, rather than to send additional assistance to Ukraine, according to two U.S. officials.“ 👇

FOUR GRAPHS ABOUT 🇩🇰'S GENERAL ELECTION My read of the election in four graphs. First: big urban-rural divide. The two big mainstream parties, Social Democrats and Liberals, are now mainly rural/suburban, with niche parties dominating in cities. (1/4) #polisky

The war on Iran marks a turning point in the security calculus of the Gulf monarchies. Strategic hedging has failed—and Europeans could become just the reliable partners the monarchies need, writes Cinzia Bianco. https://bit.ly/4uROVnp

The #EuropeanCouncil earlier this month ended with Orbán blocking the EU‘s €90bn package for Ukraine. So good, so normal (unfortunately). But something is different with this latest #EUCO blockage, I argue in this new piece for Verfassungsblog verfassungsblog.de/a-deal-is-a-... Three takeaways:

For three decades now, Dutch politics has been a forerunner of wider European trends. Populism, fragmentation, volatility - the Netherlands was always the frontrunner. Now we are seeing the Dutch centre-left merge into a broad popular front: Progressive Netherlands. Watch this space...

Heckuva job Rutte

The Italian prime minister’s referendum defeat could reveal the price of allying with a US administration that goes against European interests, writes @arturovarvelli.bsky.social. Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/4tfwp6W

Gergely Gulyás, Orbán’s chief of staff, announced that the Hungarian government will file charges against Szabolcs Panyi for espionage – outrageous accusations against an investigative journalist who has been working on uncovering Fidesz's ties to Russia and Russian influence in 🇭🇺 politics.

As expected, the objection was rejected by the centre-right to far-right majority in the EP, including what looks like quite a bit of support from Renew. Did not expect, though, to see that standing ovations from the right & far-right erupting to in the EP plenary afterwards.

Today - a man defiantly hangs a Ukrainian flag in the apartment of a building hit by a Russian air strike in Lviv

A moral triumph by Spain. But also: an act of hard-nosed realism that recognises the geopolitical costs of European hypocrisy and moves to contradict it.

Exit poll in Denmark suggests that the Moderates will hold the balance of power with the Red Bloc as the larger of the two blocs — this is what was expected. Red Bloc could get closer to majority if Citizens' Party (H) doesn't get past the 2% threshold. A+V+M govt will certainly not have majority

Denmark, Epinion exit poll: National parliament election A-S&D: 19.2% (-8.3) F-G/EFA: 11.4% (+3.1) I-EPP: 10.5% (+2.6) V-RE: 9.3% (-4.0) M-RE: 8.2% (-1.1) Æ-ECR: 7.8% (-0.3) O-PfE: 7.5% (+4.9) C-EPP: 7.1% (+1.6) Ø-LEFT: 6.4% (+1.2) ... +/- vs. Last election result ➤ europeelects.eu/denmark

This evening ⬇️⬇️⬇️

With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging toward state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight behind France’s diplomatic push, writes Kelly Petillo. Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/3Pi7nW5

If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire - Ellie Geranmayeh & Jeremy Shapiro https://bit.ly/4brdqQF

He just doesn’t have to do this. It demonstrates the total brain death of NATO. The only plan is to just beg America to stay. It’s becoming a farce and it’s not even working.

This evening ⬇️⬇️⬇️

🗳️ Municipales à Paris: Emmanuel Grégoire s'est rendu à l'Hôtel de ville en Vélib après sa victoire face à Rachida Dati.

However, the fragmentation of this rural Catholic milieu & the weakening of its political alignment with the CDU since the 1980s have contributed to rising electoral volatility and competitiveness in the state, benefiting the SPD. Some old charts by @kai-arzheimer.com and new charts by ZEIT.

State election today in Rheinland-Pfalz. Traditionally CDU stronghold, since 1990s led by succession of influential SPD figures (Scharping, Beck, Dreyer, Schweitzer). Politically split between Catholic rural areas and industrial regions on Rhine.

The Home Office said on multiple occasions that it notified the public of the new rules with postings on its gov.uk website page in October 2024. If you don't check the HO website every day & bad things happen to you or your family it's your fault! www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Trump administration officials are making a desperate push to secure every available barrel of oil amid a worsening energy crisis — even if it means lifting sanctions on the very country that they’re fighting against. https://cnn.it/4sp3aOZ

What if... European states didn't just let a volatile external hegemon prosecute its ill-conceived wars from their territory?

USAF tanker planes lined up at Sofia airport. Neat vignette of EU’s meaningful leverage over Trump’s war in Iran.

Spain is a role model in weathering Iranian oil shocks ft.trib.al/0Iz5sNC | opinion

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s condemnation of the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran initially made him an outlier in Europe. Now everyone wants in.

Oh those crazy greenies. Well, it turns out that solar and wind need not pass the Hormuz strait. Strategic autonomy in action. The most self-destructive thing Europe could do now is abandon the green transition. And that’s only on geopolitical grounds. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Next Monday 23rd March @mariamlau.bsky.social, @markhleonard.bsky.social, Piotr Buras and Philip Manow will gather in Berlin for a landmark @ecfr.eu event on Europe's populist right. How does it think? What are its strategies? How should the mainstream contend with it? Registration here ⬇️

James Talarico's foreign policy, rooted in a moral framework that the biggest divide in America is not left versus right but top versus bottom, could have wide appeal for Democrats, write @cwherrmann.bsky.social and Jeremy Shapiro. Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/4uy22tz

Breaking news: Israel has killed Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in an overnight strike, according to defence minister Israel Katz. Follow our live blog for the latest updates: ft.trib.al/Xrh2bf3

The US-Iran war has sent oil prices soaring, testing the EU’s energy resilience despite its light reliance on the Middle East. To manage the impact, EU policymakers should secure shipping lanes, tap strategic reserves and redouble efforts to escape Moscow’s grip. bit.ly/46TeBFN

French municipal elections: most important news for future of France is that Edouard Philippe is likely to survive as mayor of Le Havre, having won about 43% in the first round. Holding on to the working-class city makes him credible candidate for post-Macron centre in 2027 presidential elections

1/ Disruptions mean countries will rush to exit US-led oil order Worst case scenario for oil companies (best for rest of us) is that people permanently shift...what they call “demand destruction“ i.e short term pain but Long: Iran war will accelerate ongoing STRUCTURAL shift to solar+EVs+batteries

Trouble brewing in German European politics - research from @dpa.com released over the weekend shows that cooperation between the EPP and the far-right including the ESN/AfD on migration policy is far more extensive than argued by Manfred Weber:

If you’re wondering what the big deal is about Jürgen Habermas (who died yesterday), or if you’ve never heard of him until now, you’re not going to learn much from the short newspaper obituaries, which are focusing on more on what he said about current events than his philosophy. 1/

Best reflection on Habermas's death (and its poignant timing, given the backdrop of events) has to be this by @georgdiez.bsky.social. "The European" georgdiez.substack.com/p/der-europaer

Granta was saddened to hear of Jürgen Habermas’s death. He joined Granta for an interview in 2023 and, in honour of his life and work, this interview is now free to read. granta.com/europes-mist...

RIP Jürgen Habermas www.faz.net/aktuell/feui...

❗️NEW Europe faces constant asymmetric threats—in Africa and elsewhere. In this @ecfr.eu policy brief, Will Brown and colleagues take a look at global hybrid threats Europe is confronting today and what it should do to defend its democratic societies. 📃👇️

"Baden-Württembergs Ministerpräsident Cem Özdemir"

Gastarbeitersohn Minischterpräsident

Polls have closed in the first of this year's five German state elections, in prosperous Baden-Württemberg. It's looking like a remarkable win-from-behind by the Greens under @oezdemir.de. Full results over the course of the evening.

"This is Trump’s war of choice. But Britain has choices, too. 250 years after the American colonists broke free of empire, it’s time for a British declaration of independence." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Good to talk to @andrea-rizzi.bsky.social for his cover piece in today's @elpais.com on Trump, Putin, Netanyahu and the "law of the jungle" in geopolitics ⬇️ elpais.com/internaciona...