This is a really weird message. Obviously, literally, governments lose when they become unpopular. But more importantly, what belief or nerve is central to this government compared to any other?

Yup, this. Same old UK debate with itself over EU relations.

Count me in to the badge reading "Make trade boring again" fortune.com/2025/12/24/t...

Britain has talked itself into a flat tailspin. Had weeks of ppl telling me that the country's on the verge of catastrophe. In reality real wages are rising and the economy growing. God alone knows what ppl would say if we went back to the early 80s, 17% interest rates and four million unemployed.

Less "spheres of influence", more outright mafia-style extortion using US power. Exempting powerful US companies is obviously absurd. Weaponised interdependence on steroids. www.theguardian.com/business/202...

EU folk saying as I previously did, for the UK to go further will require financial contributions, moves towards freedom of movement, and demonstrating public commitment. Some sign more UK analysts are understanding this.

Don't quite agree, because I think Trump is a particularly extreme leader and the successor will be very different. If undoubtedly challenging in their own ways. Survival is the first order demand. Then working out what is required for the future.

I think I know the perfect replacement. Step forward @anandmenon.bsky.social...

What could a black swan event be in 2026? I was asked by @theparliament.bsky.social - great collection of perspectives, also with my colleague @emilarchambault.bsky.social on Canada-EU relations 👇 www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...

This 70s nostalgia is like the yearning for a return of manufacturing or the hopes for civil conflict. All are founded upon an ignorance of what the 70s or old-style manufacturing or violence were really like. The right has become detached from reality.

Question for Europe re. Greenland is surely less about US invasion than the scenario in which Trump says he withdraws from all Ukrainian assistance unless Denmark signs over the territory... or similar. Basically the mobster approach.

Stage direction: To be repeated for at least 10 years.

Basically an elected President proclaiming himself god and demanding whatever he wants. This has happened of course many times before. But never in the most powerful country in the world. Not actually very easy to deal with. But he does fear failing.

There's nothing obviously new here. UK politics continues to behave as if we set the parameters of what the EU will accept, rather than the other way round. With no exceptions as far as I can tell.

Does international law stop a strong country from in effect operating a protection racket? Like, I don't know, flooding a country with opium or kidnapping it's leader if they don't do what you want?

UK political culture prizes the relationship with the US as number one priority but doesn't admit that leaving nearly all governments struggling to explain away the many US actions they don't like.

So many theories about Trump's actions, and most far too sophisticated to be realistic.

I think what China understood and the rest of the world has been slow to do is that Trump is running a protection racket more than a trade or foreign policy. He wants the payoffs more than the invasion or regime change.

"Europe is crying out for closer relations with Britain". Nope. Wouldn't mind, isn't desperate. www.ft.com/content/b234...

Why does nobody point out that the UK has been dealing with the issue of illegal US invasions since at least the 1950s? Offhand I don't recall any were condemned, and some were actively supported.

I seem to have missed the golden age of international law when all countries but particularly the US did everything according to the rules. I also seem to be missing the ideas for creating another.

Also if anyone is interested in the history of the United States' attempts to topple leaders in South America and install more friendly dictators then you can - and I'm not joking here - download the files from the CIA website.

I think this is probably right despite how insane this morning's news seemed, we're already in an insane situation I guess we're rightly incensed, but were also desperate to turn over a new leaf, to see glimpses of a better future this brought back our unreality with a thud

1. Why does Russian regime change against Ukraine fail? Ukraine's leadership was democratically elected and seen as legitimate by most Ukrainians. 2. Why could the US to seize Maduro in Venezuela? Maduro falsified elections and was seen as illegitimate by much of Venezuela.

Obviously bad. Equally... not unprecedented for the US.

Excellent post by @pollymackenzie.bsky.social on the trouble with stakeholder statism and all that:

Genuinely interesting article that correctly isolates the affordability problem as largely one about Baumol cost disease and the issue of positional goods generating zero sum battles in a world of higher wealth inequality. Great stuff

Just this. Governments have to choose and an ever increasing clamour from everyone. Rather than hoping to find the magic button marked "all problems solved". And that's the fundamental problem for this UK government. No basis for priority, lots of hope of finding the magic levers.

Well then, happy new year and all that, and er who fancies a drink, we'll need it if 2026 continues last year's trends...

Just started reading Breakneck by Dan Wang about the differences and similarities between US and China (I know how to have fun on New Year's Eve) and it is simply essential reading - for these countries and understanding more broadly why the west slowed (lawyers, basically).

"Voters want contradictory things: low #prices when they shop, high #wages for themselves; not many immigrants but lots of cheap labour; rising house prices when they own and lower ones when their children want to buy." www.economist.com/leaders/2025...

Everyone having their say on this, so mine fwiw is that it was the freebies and the lack of any feel for real life rather than any particular policies or lack of plan though the latter hardly helps. Just feels therefore like another out of touch government.

Everyone having their say on this, so mine fwiw is that it was the freebies and the lack of any feel for real life rather than any particular policies or lack of plan though the latter hardly helps. Just feels therefore like another out of touch government.

Lexit lives! morningstaronline.co.uk/article/labo...

Wondering about the corporate risk planning for those doing business now with Trump and acolytes given the near certainty of years of corruption and bribery cases to follow the end of his time in office.

I feel seen.

Host students visiting London, some years later get invited to full on Indian wedding...

The rise of the side hustle, and why that might just be another contributor to distorted economic numbers. Super piece. The rise of the side hustle - www.ft.com/content/799f...

Spending time at wedding events talking de minimis is peak trade geek

👇 This sums up underlying problem with actually existing Brexit. The ways you actually maximise the benefits of Brexit run against the electoral coalition for Brexit, are not popular enough with Remainers, just end up with 'you're divorced, but you refuse to join Tinder or move out of your home'.

A quick google informs me that after this surge, Australia provides about 4% of our beef imports, and our beef imports are about 25% of our consumption. So this headline is basically saying “anger as 0.6% becomes 1% of total” and I’m not sure that’s particularly justifiable

Royal visits to the US are probably less to revitalise trade talks, more to try to distract the US from asks the UK doesn't want to deliver. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Classic England, come good when the series is lost... perhaps

Making myself available for the Final Test. I won't score any runs but by this point that shouldn't count against my chances.

About those commitments in US trade deals... www.ft.com/content/c961...

Bringing sanctions into trade and regulatory policy as if it wasn't exciting enough already...

This US administration is now completely losing any semblance of sanity in sanctioning "censorship masterminds". There's no other way to put it, this is tin pot dictatorship territory and must be called out as such. Including in the US.

Hang on a mo, what's this obviously woke US brand depriving the quintessentially English residents of Chelsea (ed, check this bit) of a proper Christmas...

Lest anyone accuse me of inconsistency: yes, I am a free trader. But I am also a patriot. A strong whisky industry means a strong Britain. A nation permanently sozzled on single malt is a happy nation. Here I stand. I can do no other.

Very good, rather exhausting report of issues in UK-EU trade from BCC... www.britishchambers.org.uk/wp-content/u...