Approximately two years and six months since their common understanding was reached. Equivalent timing for the UK would therefore be November 2027. Doesn't sit well with extreme UK government impatience.

Goes against the domestic politics unfortunately but more events to show Europe really should lean into the economic value of stability

"We negotiate agreements that generate press releases but not export orders". The irony of an opposition party (Lib Dems) saying this to the UK government is that Labour said the same about the Conservatives. But despite a strategy haven't really changed. www.export.org.uk/insights/opi...

You can agree with this *and* think that Starmer has managed to take approximately the least bad actions *and* think that he's consistently managed to flub every aspect of communicating it to any domestic group irrespective of their position on Trump, Iran or intervention

Continue to assert incidentally that Trump is an anomaly in his mafia operating style as President, and we have to deal with that and the largely separate evolution in the world order based on technology, giant corporates, and an economic shift to Asia.

fwiw there is never going to be a good answer to the question "what should a UK government do faced with a mad US President given frightening levels of powers by his own party?"

Got sidetracked onto an old old Great Railway Journeys with Mark Tully in Pakistan and what a delight...

I am pro Iranian people. I stand with them against their own government’s repression AND against the imperial violence in the form of bombs dropped from the sky from Israel & the US who have already killed hundreds. I support neither imperialism or dictatorship. Sahar Delijani said it best:

Can any of you knowledgeable gardening folk identify this plant / tree since I bought it without label over 10 years ago since when it has grown wonderfully flowering reliably at this time of year, if only I knew what it was...

Just wondering about all the "age of hard power" takes. Not convinced that another US-led bombing in the Middle East demonstrates an age of change. Think more likely Trump is just going to leave behind even more mess international and domestic.

It’s a bit hard for the people of Iran to rise up while the bombs and missiles rain down. And when the bombardment stops, the men with guns are all too likely to be ready for more repression.

Just reading that Arsenal have a scouting staff of 170, and wondering just how many people are employed in totality by the Premier League or English football? A huge export around the world paying for many UK jobs.

Farage / far right anger over by-election result entirely understandable. Because having wanted to emphasise the commonwealth and the white working classes, the two got together to defeat him. Which is complete humiliation.

Ah bless the folk who believe that this time the US can bomb the Middle East to peace.

Definitely a day for the traditional Saturday pursuits of going to the market then watching football. Read a book maybe. And try not to return here... just too tiring. Oh, currently listening to Aaron Neville.

Amid lots of political chatter in London today I'm struck by the contrast between this description of what a fresh Labour leader could do compared to the nervousness / fear of folk I've spoken with. Big job for someone to lift that.

Such a great thread that frankly provides far more insight than people like me spamming polling numbers!

Typical Macron - increasingly choosing nationalism over the EU, somehow thinking that this will prevent nationalism after his own departure.

Conservatives and Labour, US and Europe. Formerly dominant players unable to come to terms with no longer being the automatic top dogs. All part of the changing global order.

I think the words you were looking for were "Congratulations to the winning candidate on their victory, we will obviously reflect on the result and what we can do to increase our support in the future"

On the back of @stevepeers.bsky.social excellent thread, a graphic of the border arrangements under the Gibraltar Agt PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic145 @ukandeu.bsky.social @davidheniguk.bsky.social

Big trade news from Brussels as the Commission decides to provisionally apply the Mercosur trade agreement without European Parliament consent ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

For those asking* no I haven't yet read the 1000 pages of UK-EU treaty with regard to Gibraltar. Fortunately Steve has. I'll get round to it soon. (* that'll be @simonusherwood.bsky.social. waiting for the pictures)

Part of a thread of replies that absolutely demands to be read by Labour strategists among others, about the real people sitting beneath the "angry about immigrants" stereotypes from the very online (a lot of polling doesn't help in this regard)

Two nice Friday reads (if you have the subscriptions) First, the New York Times on Poems on the Underground www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/b...

Anyway I thought the Reform Party wanted men to make decisions for their family?

London residents should probably just be excited that the city acquired another plumber. #reallife

As far as I can tell from afar the most positive campaign, the one that offered some suggestion of hope, won. And that has to be a good thing for politics, because yes we need to confront the trade-offs, but there has to be an underlying positive message.

Growing realisation that security folk don't understand trade and vice versa. Might explain why we can't define economic security.

This morning's discussion was basically all about the insularity of the UK, that simply isn't playing into discussions about the US and future of the global order. And then just looks embarrassing blundering into EU discussions in particular. With only a partial defence opt-in.

Blunt...

A modern western capitalism dominated by fear - whether of immigrants, imported goods, or endlessly changing government intervention - is not conducive to growth. That doesn't look likely to change any time soon.

We're back to 90s indie for tonight's tunes...

As I said earlier. This FT story now makes me think that Peter Kyle going to Brussels with nothing useful to say will actively weaken open EU voices trying to stand up to the protectionists. www.ft.com/content/05e0...

Unfortunately this is blithering idiot territory. Of course, there are many very good reasons for not putting up trade barriers that would be quite possibly *very effective* if the UK was actually still in the EU.

Considered opinion of a few EU folk I've spoken with is that the UK has to have something to offer if it wants to be heard with regard to Made in Europe. And right now it doesn't. And worse, UK engagement brings back bad Brexit memories.

China has no principled position on Ukraine, it supports Russia's invasion of another country in total contradiction to their proclaimed non-interference doctrine.

More I think about it the more the idea that Brexit wasn't part of anti-globalisation populism is almost the ultimate in British exceptionalism. As recognised by a French government also heavily influenced by such attitudes.

No. The UK-EU summit was never really "expected" as much as rumoured in May, and similarly negotiations for such things usually take longer than the six months that UK governments always seem to think is the longest anything should take with Brussels.

Oh good, another UK political party embracing sectarian tensions from the subcontinent to win South Asian voters around.

Dirty politics in by-elections are hardly new. The Green Party certainly have questions to answer with regard to this as well as their definition of zionism... but Labour and Conservatives often do the same so is there really an answer?

Once again - UK involvement in 'Made in Europe' is about a 5th order issue compared to the huge debate ongoing in the EU about whether to remain an open economy or not. French protectionism is meeting heavy resistance, and the UK does not play in this debate. www.politico.eu/article/made...

The grab-bag policies of the modern fascists - that includes the Reform Party - a mix of state intervention, removal of workers right, burning the planet, and investment in local companies - to go alongside the deportations and pro-aggressor foreign policy. www.ft.com/content/4541...

Can't believe we still need to say that employment adjusts to technology not least after 40 years of intense change. But we are in an age of fear. Which also explains the US and European approach to China's rise.

I think this is quite a bad piece of thinking www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic?hi... but I understand it has caused a bit of a flutter. In the opening paragraphs it literally has Nominal GDP soaring AND money velocity cratering ...

Never in doubt (T20 cricket for those not watching)

At a trade event I'm hearing folk taking globalisation for granted in a way it wasn't even a few years ago, and I think this may be an inadvertent Trump effect - a narrative that he tried to stop trade and failed.

So many trade policy discussions, so few that reflect actual trade patterns. Trade is growing. Just because Europe and the US are no longer the unrivalled top dogs, and are flailing in response.

Found this an interesting read as very definitely not an expert, feels like the government has done the right things and proposed a reasonable package, but there will still be many issues and delivery won't be until after the next election. So what does this say about "improved delivery" as a goal?

Clearly testing driverless cars extensively in my area, and now with photographic evidence...