Ah bless the folk who believe that this time the US can bomb the Middle East to peace.

Definitely a day for the traditional Saturday pursuits of going to the market then watching football. Read a book maybe. And try not to return here... just too tiring. Oh, currently listening to Aaron Neville.

Amid lots of political chatter in London today I'm struck by the contrast between this description of what a fresh Labour leader could do compared to the nervousness / fear of folk I've spoken with. Big job for someone to lift that.

Such a great thread that frankly provides far more insight than people like me spamming polling numbers!

Typical Macron - increasingly choosing nationalism over the EU, somehow thinking that this will prevent nationalism after his own departure.

Conservatives and Labour, US and Europe. Formerly dominant players unable to come to terms with no longer being the automatic top dogs. All part of the changing global order.

I think the words you were looking for were "Congratulations to the winning candidate on their victory, we will obviously reflect on the result and what we can do to increase our support in the future"

On the back of @stevepeers.bsky.social excellent thread, a graphic of the border arrangements under the Gibraltar Agt PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic145 @ukandeu.bsky.social @davidheniguk.bsky.social

Big trade news from Brussels as the Commission decides to provisionally apply the Mercosur trade agreement without European Parliament consent ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

For those asking* no I haven't yet read the 1000 pages of UK-EU treaty with regard to Gibraltar. Fortunately Steve has. I'll get round to it soon. (* that'll be @simonusherwood.bsky.social. waiting for the pictures)

Part of a thread of replies that absolutely demands to be read by Labour strategists among others, about the real people sitting beneath the "angry about immigrants" stereotypes from the very online (a lot of polling doesn't help in this regard)

Two nice Friday reads (if you have the subscriptions) First, the New York Times on Poems on the Underground www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/b...

Anyway I thought the Reform Party wanted men to make decisions for their family?

London residents should probably just be excited that the city acquired another plumber. #reallife

As far as I can tell from afar the most positive campaign, the one that offered some suggestion of hope, won. And that has to be a good thing for politics, because yes we need to confront the trade-offs, but there has to be an underlying positive message.

Growing realisation that security folk don't understand trade and vice versa. Might explain why we can't define economic security.

This morning's discussion was basically all about the insularity of the UK, that simply isn't playing into discussions about the US and future of the global order. And then just looks embarrassing blundering into EU discussions in particular. With only a partial defence opt-in.

Blunt...

A modern western capitalism dominated by fear - whether of immigrants, imported goods, or endlessly changing government intervention - is not conducive to growth. That doesn't look likely to change any time soon.

We're back to 90s indie for tonight's tunes...

As I said earlier. This FT story now makes me think that Peter Kyle going to Brussels with nothing useful to say will actively weaken open EU voices trying to stand up to the protectionists. www.ft.com/content/05e0...

Unfortunately this is blithering idiot territory. Of course, there are many very good reasons for not putting up trade barriers that would be quite possibly *very effective* if the UK was actually still in the EU.

Considered opinion of a few EU folk I've spoken with is that the UK has to have something to offer if it wants to be heard with regard to Made in Europe. And right now it doesn't. And worse, UK engagement brings back bad Brexit memories.

China has no principled position on Ukraine, it supports Russia's invasion of another country in total contradiction to their proclaimed non-interference doctrine.

More I think about it the more the idea that Brexit wasn't part of anti-globalisation populism is almost the ultimate in British exceptionalism. As recognised by a French government also heavily influenced by such attitudes.

No. The UK-EU summit was never really "expected" as much as rumoured in May, and similarly negotiations for such things usually take longer than the six months that UK governments always seem to think is the longest anything should take with Brussels.

Oh good, another UK political party embracing sectarian tensions from the subcontinent to win South Asian voters around.

Dirty politics in by-elections are hardly new. The Green Party certainly have questions to answer with regard to this as well as their definition of zionism... but Labour and Conservatives often do the same so is there really an answer?

Once again - UK involvement in 'Made in Europe' is about a 5th order issue compared to the huge debate ongoing in the EU about whether to remain an open economy or not. French protectionism is meeting heavy resistance, and the UK does not play in this debate. www.politico.eu/article/made...

The grab-bag policies of the modern fascists - that includes the Reform Party - a mix of state intervention, removal of workers right, burning the planet, and investment in local companies - to go alongside the deportations and pro-aggressor foreign policy. www.ft.com/content/4541...

Can't believe we still need to say that employment adjusts to technology not least after 40 years of intense change. But we are in an age of fear. Which also explains the US and European approach to China's rise.

I think this is quite a bad piece of thinking www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic?hi... but I understand it has caused a bit of a flutter. In the opening paragraphs it literally has Nominal GDP soaring AND money velocity cratering ...

Never in doubt (T20 cricket for those not watching)

At a trade event I'm hearing folk taking globalisation for granted in a way it wasn't even a few years ago, and I think this may be an inadvertent Trump effect - a narrative that he tried to stop trade and failed.

So many trade policy discussions, so few that reflect actual trade patterns. Trade is growing. Just because Europe and the US are no longer the unrivalled top dogs, and are flailing in response.

Found this an interesting read as very definitely not an expert, feels like the government has done the right things and proposed a reasonable package, but there will still be many issues and delivery won't be until after the next election. So what does this say about "improved delivery" as a goal?

Clearly testing driverless cars extensively in my area, and now with photographic evidence...

UK trade policy remains absurdly vulnerable to threats given successive governments disdain for using Parliament or telling anyone very much. We don't even know what phase 1 of the US-pharma deal says, and now there may be a phase 2. www.politico.eu/article/dona...

On the one hand this is a silly op-ed as befits Peter Navarro. Obviously the Supreme Court did not rule on laws it wasn't asked about. On the other hand I'm sure the core part is correct. Expect US tariffs. Though we're back right no to 10% under Section 122. www.ft.com/content/d892...

Powerful production of Broken Glass at the Young Vic - not necessarily an easy watch though.

Unfortunately I think Trump is correct on this one, and the UK and EU might once again be advised to use second class post to seek their urgent clarity as what comes next may well be worse.

Don't cross the FT is what the news seems to be proving.

Was just passed by a driverless car. And then a police car. Hopefully not linked...

Trying to sort out all the ramifications of the IEEPA ruling for US tariffs? Check out this piece by law prof Kathleen Claussen: "What Just Happened: Tariffs Are Gone and Then Back Again"

EU demonstrating the value of having a Parliament that needs to be consulted on trade deals, delaying to Trump's frustration the Turnberry deal. Nobody in the UK government will notice...

Good advice also for the UK. Retaliatory tariffs don't work, early engagement can be laid to rest with Mandelson's career, we know more tariffs will come but let's handle that when they do.

Increasing divide into two European views on trade - one - to weaponise, protect, retaliate - alternative - to remain open, focus on strengths, don't panic. Obviously I'm in the second. But I also feel that's where political reality is - don't think the first can work. www.ft.com/content/b92f...

I think more European leaders have been to China than the US in the last six months and that might just be the best evidence of the changing world

Sorry, I know this is Chrystia Freeland, but the idea that Europe and the US under Trump can have a common front on anything trade related still less China is not realistic, and doesn't even go with the argument elsewhere in the article of EU standing up against Trump www.ft.com/content/5726...

Something rather fragile about Arsenal that is almost the exact opposite of what title winning teams need at this point of the season