🚨 Policy brief! 🇺🇸Trump userà finanza, energia e tech per fare pressione sull'#Europa. 🇪🇺 Ma quest'ultima ha più opzioni di quanto pensi. Mitigare, dissuadere, escalare: il nuovo policy brief @ecfr.eu di @agathedemarais.com, @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social e @jitorreblanca.eurosky.social

As tariffs hit their limits Trump could turn to the financial, energy and digital fields to pressure Europe - in our @ecfr.eu policy brief @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, @jitorreblanca.eurosky.social and I sketch out three such scenarios, complete with response options for Europe ecfr.eu/publication/...

ECFR’s latest poll confirms the collapse in European faith in the US. Only 11% of respondents now consider it an ally, down from 16% half a year ago and 22% in November 2024. https://ecfr.eu/publication/home-alone-europeans-are-ready-to-defend-themselves/

🎲Going all in or playing it safe? Our latest policy brief explores scenarios of US coercion against Europe in the finance, energy and tech spheres. It maps out 3 potential EU responses: mitigation, deterrence and escalation. Read @ecfr.eu's new report: ecfr.eu/publication/...

I joined the Derisky Business pod with @geoffreygertz.bsky.social and Emily Kilcrease to discuss Europe's latest China twists, trade wars, and what's left of transatlantic economic security. www.cnas.org/publications...

China's silent coercion works precisely because Europe debates marginal adjustments whilst avoiding systemic responses. Beijing achieves policy paralysis without firing a shot—the threat of retaliation constrains European action more effectively than actual sanctions ever could.

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest—China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself. Read the full commentary by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social: https://bit.ly/43r0l4M

Big weeks in Brussels and EU capitals to see if the chilling effect of Chinese coercive threats will continue to hold sway over Europe’s trade and industrial agenda. Beijing’s coercive leverage works best when it quietly constrains Europe’s policy space... 1/

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest—China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself. Read the full commentary by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social: https://bit.ly/43r0l4M

Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest—China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself. Read the full commentary by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social: https://bit.ly/43r0l4M

[Commentary] #Trade & #GlobalEurope: How #China’s silent coercion has #Europe sanctioning itself, by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social | @ecfr.eu www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...

📌 «CÓMO LA COERCIÓN SILENCIOSA DE CHINA ESTÁ LLEVANDO A EUROPA A SANCIONARSE A SÍ MISMA» 📝 @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social ( @ecfrpower.bsky.social ) 💡 Pekín no necesita recurrir a la coacción económica para orientar la agenda económica de Europa 🔗 Puedes descubrir más aquí ⬇️ ecfr.eu/article/how-...

If European policymakers pre-emptively drop measures to address the China shock more systematically for fear of retaliation, the chilling effect of Chinese coercion works just as well, without having to actually use its tools 1/

As our latest policy brief, Beijing hold'em, discusses the key economic strategies Europe should develop to build a deterrence posture against China, in a previous one, @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social stated the kinds of assets Europeans have against the Trump administration. https://bit.ly/3PBPZvz

In Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion, Tobias Gehrke and Nina Schmelzer map the key leverage points available to the EU across trade, investment and critical infrastructure which can build an economic deterrence posture against China. https://bit.ly/413rF8c

China's mineral monopoly does not only give Beijing coercive power over European defense and industrial sectors, but it can also hold the wider EU competitiveness agenda hostage. 1/

Good moment to repost my paper from last year, mapping the cards Europe could play in response to US coercion. Most of them could be played via the anti-coercion instrument. Digital services charges and (de facto) export controls are the keys. ecfr.eu/publication/...

Friends, I've moved to DC. If you're based here or are passing through, do get in touch!

🎧New week, new podcast! This week, Mark Leonard welcomes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and Andrew Small. Together, they discuss China’s current and future economic strategies—and actions that Europe should take in response Listen to the full episode: https://bit.ly/4qjSFuF

The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk manager and become a power broker, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social https://bit.ly/446JjKc

What to make of the EU's latest economic security proposals A few thoughts for @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/unde...

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it | @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/how-...

The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...

“Europe is in a historic economic security crisis, with its industry being dependent on bureaucrats in Beijing signing licences for REEs. "The EU needs to get together to solve this issue as quickly as possible... call it economic security or not,” said @tobiasgehrke @ecfr

Feels like the strategic autonomy debate all over again these days: endless scoping, definitions, etymology debates. Let's just focus on solving a threat: Call an emergency on REEs, put all possible trade and security (3Ps) on the table, see how each could help solve the emergency, and go implement

As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, Europe scrambles for its dictionary My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...

There’s no shortage of ways inverters can be turned into weapons, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social https://bit.ly/4pGeDbd

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it In my latest, I look at how Europe’s solar boom has quietly given Beijing potential access points inside the EU energy grid through Chinese-made inverters. 🧵 ecfr.eu/article/how-...

Europe’s solar boom has handed China remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid technologies, Europe risks another energy security crisis, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/how-...

America is eating Europe’s lunch again. Solvay’s rare earth processing plant in France is a genuine strategic asset. It could have scaled to cover 30% of Europe’s needs. But... www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...

After striking a critical mineral deal with Australia, Washington also inked another one with Tokyo. A few things worth noting: www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

A Canadian miner announced a $277 million investment to construct the first US heavy rare earth separation facility in Louisiana. Plans to mine in South America and ship them to Louisiana for processing asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...

More trouble ahead "Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan" www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

If the ACI is not used now, at a time when China is taking coercion to a new level through its rare earth controls, the tool deserves a place at the back of the deep-freeze, next to the CAI. @jankaoertel.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/esca...

This is a really good speech from VDL. And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.

A supply analysis of 107 leading European corporations from seven industries shows that 86% purchase chips from Nexperia sites in China - 100% in aerospace and defence sectors - 95% in mechanical engineering - 86% in medical technology - 49% in automotive www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...

The irony is that Beijing does not allow any foreign inverter suppliers in its energy grid for cybersecurity reasons. But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe. Disaster in the making... www.politico.eu/article/euro...

The ACI was on the table at EUCO, but no agreement was found. Tactically, EU is also waiting for - US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain? - Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?

A qualified majority of member states must agree that the EU is being subjected to economic coercion. If China’s recent actions do not meet that threshold, it is hard to imagine what ever will, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social https://bit.ly/475mPLG

Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table, write @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social & @jankaoertel.bsky.social @ecfr.eu. Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...

Europeans need collective leverage to even start a conversation with Beijing—otherwise acceptance becomes the new normal and Beijing will continue to gradually escalate, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social https://bit.ly/475mPLG

Report from @TGehrke_and @jankaoertel calling for the EU to use the anti coercion instrument against China over rare earths Points to chokepoints Europe could use: -older DUV machines -airplane components -high precision bearings -powdered superalloys

The EU should trigger the anti-coercion instrument to respond to China's rare earth weapon @jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.

Tariffs, markets, currencies, minerals, energy, migrants. States are tightening chokeholds at the stroke of a pen, inflicting pain and sowing chaos. Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation? My long read is out this morning.

What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇 ecfr.eu/publication/...

Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal I'm sceptical - does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging - "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather - IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄

“Both the Chinese and Americans are taking economic hostages right across the board, and then they try to leverage those hostages in negotiations,” said @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, a specialist in geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered My report on whether the EU's upcoming "economic security doctrine" risks bringing a knife to a gun fight www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

Donald Trump's latest tariff threat comes with a message impossible to ignore: the EU-US trade war isn't over yet. It is just evolving. My analysis.

NEW: EU and US publish joint statement on trade deal. Language relating to China in this short thread: policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...