Good moment to repost my paper from last year, mapping the cards Europe could play in response to US coercion. Most of them could be played via the anti-coercion instrument. Digital services charges and (de facto) export controls are the keys. ecfr.eu/publication/...

Friends, I've moved to DC. If you're based here or are passing through, do get in touch!

🎧New week, new podcast! This week, Mark Leonard welcomes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and Andrew Small. Together, they discuss China’s current and future economic strategies—and actions that Europe should take in response Listen to the full episode: https://bit.ly/4qjSFuF

The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk manager and become a power broker, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social https://bit.ly/446JjKc

What to make of the EU's latest economic security proposals A few thoughts for @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/unde...

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it | @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/how-...

The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...

“Europe is in a historic economic security crisis, with its industry being dependent on bureaucrats in Beijing signing licences for REEs. "The EU needs to get together to solve this issue as quickly as possible... call it economic security or not,” said @tobiasgehrke @ecfr

Feels like the strategic autonomy debate all over again these days: endless scoping, definitions, etymology debates. Let's just focus on solving a threat: Call an emergency on REEs, put all possible trade and security (3Ps) on the table, see how each could help solve the emergency, and go implement

As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, Europe scrambles for its dictionary My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...

There’s no shortage of ways inverters can be turned into weapons, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social https://bit.ly/4pGeDbd

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it In my latest, I look at how Europe’s solar boom has quietly given Beijing potential access points inside the EU energy grid through Chinese-made inverters. 🧵 ecfr.eu/article/how-...

Europe’s solar boom has handed China remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid technologies, Europe risks another energy security crisis, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/how-...

America is eating Europe’s lunch again. Solvay’s rare earth processing plant in France is a genuine strategic asset. It could have scaled to cover 30% of Europe’s needs. But... www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...

After striking a critical mineral deal with Australia, Washington also inked another one with Tokyo. A few things worth noting: www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

A Canadian miner announced a $277 million investment to construct the first US heavy rare earth separation facility in Louisiana. Plans to mine in South America and ship them to Louisiana for processing asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...

More trouble ahead "Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan" www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

If the ACI is not used now, at a time when China is taking coercion to a new level through its rare earth controls, the tool deserves a place at the back of the deep-freeze, next to the CAI. @jankaoertel.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/esca...

This is a really good speech from VDL. And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.

A supply analysis of 107 leading European corporations from seven industries shows that 86% purchase chips from Nexperia sites in China - 100% in aerospace and defence sectors - 95% in mechanical engineering - 86% in medical technology - 49% in automotive www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...

The irony is that Beijing does not allow any foreign inverter suppliers in its energy grid for cybersecurity reasons. But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe. Disaster in the making... www.politico.eu/article/euro...

The ACI was on the table at EUCO, but no agreement was found. Tactically, EU is also waiting for - US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain? - Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?

A qualified majority of member states must agree that the EU is being subjected to economic coercion. If China’s recent actions do not meet that threshold, it is hard to imagine what ever will, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social https://bit.ly/475mPLG

Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table, write @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social & @jankaoertel.bsky.social @ecfr.eu. Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...

Europeans need collective leverage to even start a conversation with Beijing—otherwise acceptance becomes the new normal and Beijing will continue to gradually escalate, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social https://bit.ly/475mPLG

Report from @TGehrke_and @jankaoertel calling for the EU to use the anti coercion instrument against China over rare earths Points to chokepoints Europe could use: -older DUV machines -airplane components -high precision bearings -powdered superalloys

The EU should trigger the anti-coercion instrument to respond to China's rare earth weapon @jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.

Tariffs, markets, currencies, minerals, energy, migrants. States are tightening chokeholds at the stroke of a pen, inflicting pain and sowing chaos. Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation? My long read is out this morning.

What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇 ecfr.eu/publication/...

Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal I'm sceptical - does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging - "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather - IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄

“Both the Chinese and Americans are taking economic hostages right across the board, and then they try to leverage those hostages in negotiations,” said @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, a specialist in geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered My report on whether the EU's upcoming "economic security doctrine" risks bringing a knife to a gun fight www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

Donald Trump's latest tariff threat comes with a message impossible to ignore: the EU-US trade war isn't over yet. It is just evolving. My analysis.

NEW: EU and US publish joint statement on trade deal. Language relating to China in this short thread: policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...

The apparent commitment by the EU to buy $250 billion a year of U.S. #energy is delusional and has zero chance of being realised. It would mean the EU buying virtually all of its #crude oil, #LNG and met #coal from the U.S., and the U.S. can't even supply the volumes. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

As Europe seriously contemplates retaliation against US tariffs as a way of striking a better bargain, I’m reposting @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social excellent overview of Europe’s economic arsenal. The bloc has more leverage than commonly assumed, tho Japan folding won’t help. ecfr.eu/publication/...

How do you pronounce "dirigisme" in Republican? @kfj-fp.bsky.social and @christinalu.bsky.social on the GOP's state capitalist turn, w/ @sarahbauerled.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and me. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/16/t...

🚨Emergency Podcast Episode🎙️ This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Senior Policy Fellow @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social to discuss the collapse of an EU-US trade deal. Listen, share and subscribe🔗

Takeaways from our podcast recording on Europe's latest response to Washington’s tariff threats: 1) The EU is closing in on a second retaliation package worth €72 billion on top of the €21 billion already agreed. Not yet formally adopted, but it’s coming. ... @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

Funny how Rasmussen in the presser afterwards just completely flip-flopped on this statement, saying he does not believe in 'escalate to deescalate'. huh?

Can confirm that this has been read by pretty much every official involved in working out what to do. Also on the US side.

Faced with Trump's 30% tariff, the EU urgently needs a comprehensive map of its retaliatory options; ranging across goods, services, IP, digital, finance & people-to-people measures (including their cost to Europe). Fortunately, we @ecfr.eu have already published that map: ecfr.eu/publication/...

The EU’s burgeoning deal with the Trump administration seems to escape the harshest US tariff threats. But there is a sense that the bloc has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social in his latest policy alert for ECFR🔗https://buff.ly/B3xP36y

Brussels 🇪🇺 and Washington 🇺🇸 are reportedly closing in on a trade “deal” which would let Europe escape from Trump's harshest tariffs. But few will be popping champagne. There is a strong sense that the EU has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards. What went wrong? ecfr.eu/article/what...

“Is Trump good for your country?” @ecfr.eu asked Europe’s far-right parties. The results are split Makes you wonder if economics plays a role. If yes, AfD and RN appear more attuned to what a trade fallout with Trump could mean than extremist parties in Hungary, Romania and Poland One reason...

What was anticipated weeks ago is now confirmed: China 🇨🇳 is using export controls on rare earths and magnets to gain leverage over Europe 🇪🇺 on other files, as Handelsblatt reports. These files include... 1/8

Europe 🇪🇺 needs a Swiss army knife approach to its economic foreign policy, I argue in a new piece for @euractiv.com Basically, a versatile toolkit capable of tackling trade, green industrialisation, and economic security at once. 1/7 www.euractiv.com/section/econ...

Smart piece by my colleague @byfordt.bsky.social on how the 🇪🇺 and 🇮🇳 can collaborate on clean technology. @ecfrasia.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/caug...

Germany 🇩🇪 eyes a €46bn corporate tax break, which includes deductions for new machine equipment and electric vehicles Essential to make these investment incentives conditional on 'Buy European'. Let's not stimulate Chinese EV and machinery exporters but Europeans instead www.ft.com/content/ec3e...

China's export controls on rare earths and magnets are beginning to bite. European companies' stockpiles are dwindling, and production is being throttled. Beijing will want to leverage this chokehold with Europe in trade, investment and tech control talks www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...