Tariffs, markets, currencies, minerals, energy, migrants. States are tightening chokeholds at the stroke of a pen, inflicting pain and sowing chaos. Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation? My long read is out this morning.

What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇 ecfr.eu/publication/...

Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal I'm sceptical - does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging - "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather - IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄

“Both the Chinese and Americans are taking economic hostages right across the board, and then they try to leverage those hostages in negotiations,” said @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, a specialist in geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered My report on whether the EU's upcoming "economic security doctrine" risks bringing a knife to a gun fight www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

Donald Trump's latest tariff threat comes with a message impossible to ignore: the EU-US trade war isn't over yet. It is just evolving. My analysis.

NEW: EU and US publish joint statement on trade deal. Language relating to China in this short thread: policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...

The apparent commitment by the EU to buy $250 billion a year of U.S. #energy is delusional and has zero chance of being realised. It would mean the EU buying virtually all of its #crude oil, #LNG and met #coal from the U.S., and the U.S. can't even supply the volumes. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

As Europe seriously contemplates retaliation against US tariffs as a way of striking a better bargain, I’m reposting @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social excellent overview of Europe’s economic arsenal. The bloc has more leverage than commonly assumed, tho Japan folding won’t help. ecfr.eu/publication/...

How do you pronounce "dirigisme" in Republican? @kfj-fp.bsky.social and @christinalu.bsky.social on the GOP's state capitalist turn, w/ @sarahbauerled.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and me. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/16/t...

🚨Emergency Podcast Episode🎙️ This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Senior Policy Fellow @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social to discuss the collapse of an EU-US trade deal. Listen, share and subscribe🔗

Takeaways from our podcast recording on Europe's latest response to Washington’s tariff threats: 1) The EU is closing in on a second retaliation package worth €72 billion on top of the €21 billion already agreed. Not yet formally adopted, but it’s coming. ... @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...

Funny how Rasmussen in the presser afterwards just completely flip-flopped on this statement, saying he does not believe in 'escalate to deescalate'. huh?

Can confirm that this has been read by pretty much every official involved in working out what to do. Also on the US side.

Faced with Trump's 30% tariff, the EU urgently needs a comprehensive map of its retaliatory options; ranging across goods, services, IP, digital, finance & people-to-people measures (including their cost to Europe). Fortunately, we @ecfr.eu have already published that map: ecfr.eu/publication/...

The EU’s burgeoning deal with the Trump administration seems to escape the harshest US tariff threats. But there is a sense that the bloc has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social in his latest policy alert for ECFR🔗https://buff.ly/B3xP36y

Brussels 🇪🇺 and Washington 🇺🇸 are reportedly closing in on a trade “deal” which would let Europe escape from Trump's harshest tariffs. But few will be popping champagne. There is a strong sense that the EU has fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards. What went wrong? ecfr.eu/article/what...

“Is Trump good for your country?” @ecfr.eu asked Europe’s far-right parties. The results are split Makes you wonder if economics plays a role. If yes, AfD and RN appear more attuned to what a trade fallout with Trump could mean than extremist parties in Hungary, Romania and Poland One reason...

What was anticipated weeks ago is now confirmed: China 🇨🇳 is using export controls on rare earths and magnets to gain leverage over Europe 🇪🇺 on other files, as Handelsblatt reports. These files include... 1/8

Europe 🇪🇺 needs a Swiss army knife approach to its economic foreign policy, I argue in a new piece for @euractiv.com Basically, a versatile toolkit capable of tackling trade, green industrialisation, and economic security at once. 1/7 www.euractiv.com/section/econ...

Smart piece by my colleague @byfordt.bsky.social on how the 🇪🇺 and 🇮🇳 can collaborate on clean technology. @ecfrasia.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/caug...

Germany 🇩🇪 eyes a €46bn corporate tax break, which includes deductions for new machine equipment and electric vehicles Essential to make these investment incentives conditional on 'Buy European'. Let's not stimulate Chinese EV and machinery exporters but Europeans instead www.ft.com/content/ec3e...

China's export controls on rare earths and magnets are beginning to bite. European companies' stockpiles are dwindling, and production is being throttled. Beijing will want to leverage this chokehold with Europe in trade, investment and tech control talks www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...

Venture capital tech investment in Europe is a fifth of US levels “There are a lot of scattered, small amounts of capital, and then you have these very large, slow-moving, bureaucratic, quasi-government agencies. And you don’t have very much in the middle" www.wsj.com/tech/europe-...

🇫🇷 and 🇩🇪 to focus on reducing dependencies in new 'reset' document - new push for a sovereign cloud - a joint agency for defence innovation - complete capital markets union - push for European champions (telecom, AI, defence) - monetary/fiscal leverage to push back against Trumpian coercion (!)

Should Europe retaliate if Trump’s tariffs hit on 9 July, and how? If yes, then there seems to be general agreement that, beyond tariffs on goods, US digital services are the most likely and vulnerable target. But there is some confusion about how that would work. Some thoughts 1/

Trump's brand-new American First Investment Policy upends any notion of long-term US national interest - for @foreignpolicy.com I argue that the White House's investment strategy illustrates how Trump acts as if he were running Trump Enterprises, not the US economy

2/ [This built on @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social's longer @ecfr.eu paper in March, which remains the best and most comprehensive inventory of Europe's "cards", ie sources of leverage versus Trump's US: ecfr.eu/publication/...

1/ @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social outlined his "rule of 90": an assertive vision of what Europeans should seek to achieve in trade talks with Trump over the next: - 90 days, - 90 weeks, - and 90 months ecfr.eu/article/card...

A great conversation abt the recent 🇺🇸 trade moves with former @wto.org DG Pascal Lamy @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social Henry Gao @sciencespo.bsky.social Thierry Mayer Moderated by yours truly 👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh17...

It's a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem: Chinese companies increasingly purge foreign firms from their supply chains due to the renewed trade war, which is partly fueled by China's localisation and substitution policies in the first place. Who is the original sinner? www.ft.com/content/8e01...

Good that Japan & EU are aligned on drawing red lines. Significant concessions on sectoral tariffs are essential. “Auto and auto parts are the biggest exporting sector from Japan to the US. If we cannot make progress in this sector, I think we cannot reach any consensus.” www.ft.com/content/45d5...

Japan launched a security clearance system to classify critical government information on economic security grounds. Thousands of gov officials & private sector employees will be vetted (eg. criminal records, foreign travel, alcohol consumption, mental illness) english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/05...

🇸🇪 Trade Minister: "If the UK-US deal is what Europe gets, then the US can expect countermeasures from our side.” But what exactly is the red line for the EU in the UK-US deal? The 10% baseline tariff? The China stuff? The quotas?

Interesting divergence between East and West among European visitors to the US

Trump could well push for a global deal to weaken the dollar when the US holds the G20 presidency in 2026 - in my latest for @foreignpolicy.com I explore how a Mar-a-Lago accord would be almost impossible to pull off and run counter to Washington’s global interests foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/08/d...

The Trump team plans to rescind the Biden-era AI Diffusion Framework. On one hand, could be a chance for the EU to get a better deal, eg treat member states the same On the other, could give Trump another cross-leverage tool to demand trade or other concessions www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

This is the right way. Bring a big stick to the negotiations.

Guns vs. butter: the tension between security & trade issues with the US has been bubbling for months, now bursting ahead of NATO summit. The argument: top priority is to placate Trump in The Hague, throw lifeline to NATO. Trade retaliation etc should be subordinated. www.ft.com/content/75c4...

BMW is optimistic that sectoral 25% tariffs on cars will be lowered from July onwards, likely in return for exporting cars from the US (which BMW already does). To watch: Will the US ask for steeper EU tariffs on Chinese cars in return for lowering its tariffs? www.ft.com/content/f00c...

Germany has been on the back foot in Europe over the past few years. Chancellor Merz's visits to Paris and Warsaw today beg the question: will that now change? Here's @jpuglierin.bsky.social's and my (very) cautiously upbeat assessment: ecfr.eu/article/from...

About time the EU comes up with a bigger retaliation package, now eyeing another €100 billion US goods. The time to increase pressure and waive your gun is now, not after the talks fail. Services retaliation remains mute, even though it could be very targeted. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

More card players: Japan’s Finance Minister Kato said last week the sale of US Treasuries "exists as a card” in the negotiations. He has now walked back that comment. But if JP can't achieve key interests (tariffs on auto, steel), it could resurface www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

🌍From abrupt tariff hikes to the temporary pause of his “reciprocal tariff” policy for all but China, Donald Trump’s first 100 days have injected renewed volatility into the global economic order. At @ecfr.eu #Geoeconomics, we examine how the EU should respond. Dive into our latest insights below 👇🧵

A great line up next Monday at the París School of International Affairs to discuss Trump, tariffs and the dollar @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social

Europe’s semiconductor ambitions are at a crossroads. Chiara Malaponti outlines how a revamped Chips Act and stronger public-private partnerships can help the EU become a key player in the global chip industry. @ecfrgeoeconomics.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social

‘Wij kunnen andere landen tonen dat de VS niet onoverwinnelijk zijn en dat hun acties gevolgen hebben’

The Brussels hold ’em game with Trump will not end in 90 days. Europe must spell out its own landing zones in the mid- (90 weeks) & long-term (90 months) My latest on how the EU can build a phased, conditional and incremental strategy @ecfr.eu @ecfrgeoeconomics.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/card...

The Brussels hold ’em game with Trump will not end in 90 days. Europe must spell out its own landing zones in the mid- (90 weeks) & long-term (90 months) My latest on how the EU can build a phased, conditional and incremental strategy @ecfr.eu @ecfrgeoeconomics.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/card...

Facing Trump's tariff threats, the EU must play its cards wisely. A phased negotiation strategy could turn the tide in Europe's favor, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social Read his new commentary, here 👇 bit.ly/4jx7UO1