Filed my 159th (hopefully last!) story of 2025. Heading for a few weeks with family Down Under. Plan to avoid the news as much as possible. Digital detox required! Thanks to all who read my work, listened to me waffle, or helped in any way this yr. Back mid-Jan. Happy Christmas!

China on Tuesday imposed final anti-dumping duties of up to 19.8% on pork imports from the European Union, a drop from preliminary tariffs of up to 62.4%.

My first thought on seeing this: "I can't believe the Commission is encouraging officials to write first-draft policy using AI." But then I remembered, having read countless indecipherable, barely readable policy documents, that it is in fact all-too believable

Also new: the EU "condemns" Chinese Coast Guard deploying water cannon and cutting anchor lines against Philippine fishing vessels "EU calls... China to exercise restraint, refrain from use of force or coercion, resolve disputes peacefully, in full respect of international law"

New: EU slams verdict in Jimmy Lai trial as "politically motivated and emblematic of the erosion of democracy and fundamental freedoms in HK since the imposition of NSL in 2020" "A free & independent media is vital for resilient societies and ensuring government accountability"

EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels today - China is on the agenda. I wrote about growing anxiety over China's rising support for Russia on Friday. That'll form the crux of a lunchtime discussion. Given the sensitivity, no phones or aides permitted.

Jimmy Lai, the pro-democracy former Hong Kong media mogul and outspoken critic of Beijing, was convicted in a landmark national security trial in the city’s court on Monday, which could send him to prison for the rest of his life.

EU fears China’s role in Russia’s war on Ukraine is deepening My report ahead of a sensitive discussion of foreign ministers on Monday

CEO of Seat (owned by VW) is confident the EU will remove the 20.7% tariff on the Cupra line made in China "within a month or 2" "We're aiming to get rid of the additional tariffs," Haupt said, with the goal of reaching an undertaking agreement instead

Confirmation now of a €3 customs duty to be applied to e-commerce parcels from outside the EU that are worth under €150 from July 2026 No mention of China in the press release, but this is all about Temu, Shein, AliExpress. Postal services are overwhelmed by volume of packages

In Slovakia's new Indo Pacific strategy, Taiwan has been left off one of the maps. Posted by Matej Šimalčík on LinkedIn @MatejSimalcik

Brussels ramps up China de-risking while France and Germany pull further apart Raids, probes, FDI screening, Nuctech, Temu, BYD, Deutsche Bahn, Macron, Wadephul... It's all in here

Britain moves to combat Chinese overcapacity amid Trump’s trade war www.politico.eu/article/brit...

Breaking: European Commission has opened an in-depth foreign subsidies investigation into Chinese security scanner company Nuctech's activities in the threat detection systems sector This is an advancement of the probe launched last year, over which Nuctech sued the commission

Yes, that'll help fight the rampant competition from China The European Union is weighing a five-year delay to its effective ban on the combustion engine after heavy pressure from some of the region’s biggest automotive countries.

Deal this morning between Council and Parliament on upgrading the EU's inward FDI screening mechanism. What's new: 1. Mandatory screening for dual use & military items, critical tech (AI, quantum, chips), critical minerals & infrastructure, electoral systems, some financial

De-risking with German characteristics: Deutsche Bahn, state-owned rail company in Europe's automotive heartland, to buy 700 electric BYD buses Unions angry: "The government owns the railway, we expect it to be serious about fighting for German jobs"

NEW: Iceland not to take part in Eurovision - RUV

Wang Yi told a symposium of MFA bigwigs to "build a narrative system that's refreshing to the eyes & ears" Per Trivium, "a tacit admission China’s storytelling isn’t landing well overseas" He also called for the creation of a "Diplomatic Iron Army" triviumchina.com/202...

Instagram post by German foreign minister Wadephul He winks at the camera, under a caption "Nobody wants to meet Wadephul in China". Cut to a showreel of meetings with Wang Wentao, Wang Yi, Han Zheng, Zhao Leji The victorious Wadephul bathing in the glory of a few meetings 💪

European tech firm helping China turn low-grade bauxite – once considered waste – into high-quality feedstock for aluminium “We're not saying we'll eliminate all imports, but we can rebalance" Great reporting by my colleague @hollycwchik in Shanxi

A rare EU statement in Chinese for International Human Rights Day "There's been no substantial improvement in China's overall human rights situation" Says systemic restrictions on minority groups' rights to enjoy their own culture and language... risk erasure of their cultures"

Franco-German axis pulling in opposite directions on China Paris: Europeans will be forced to take strong measures and to de-cooperate, following the example of the US Berlin: Such measures should only be considered as a last resort and we should be extremely cautious

Beijing is set to limit access to Nvidia’s advanced H200 chips despite Donald Trump’s decision to allow the export of the technology to China as it pushes to achieve self-sufficiency in semiconductor production.

German machinery production forecast to fall 5% in 2025 vs 2024, 3rd straight annual plunge, VDMA says "Production has been shrinking since the beginning of 2023, and the fourth quarter of 2025 is likely to be the twelfth consecutive quarter of decline"

Taiwan's former EU envoy Roy Lee: "There is literally no trade agenda" between the two sides "People don't want to talk about it, to get serious about how to engage with Taiwan, in a structural way so that it'll promote the interests of all sides"

📈 One-third of ongoing investments into European battery and electric vehicle manufacturing comes from China. This opens a new chapter for the sector, which previously experienced large investments by US & South Korean firms. Link to navigate these flows: european-clean-tech-tracker.bruegel.org

Revealing interview with EU industry chief Séjourné by @rik_rutten on rare earths "Last month, I was supposed to go to Brazil to discuss a rare earth mine. 3 days beforehand we were told that the Americans had come, put money on the table, and bought all production until 2030"

Last year, ASML sold an essential chip machine part to a military research institute of CETC, one of China's key defence companies. A Chinese quantum institute was also a customer. .

‘A threat to Europe’s political life’: EU reels from new US security strategy My piece on the fallout to Trump's new Europe doctrine “This is, quite straightforwardly, a programme for regime change in Europe" - Henry Farrell

Been reading the Foundation novels chronologically this year after a Foreign Affairs article compared the Mule to Trump. I'm on book 5. Between interregna & Seldon crises I can't help but think there are good metaphors for Europe's predicament and the fraying of the West...

Oh my god - this is insane trolling of German foreign minister Wadephul by Wang Yi in the Chinese readout of their rescheduled meeting in Beijing "While the visit has been fraught with difficulties, as the Chinese saying goes, 'good things come to those who wait!'" 🫣

The EU has quietly renewed its sanctions on four Chinese officials and one organisation for their role in human rights violations in Xinjiang - procedural move, done last week without fanfare along with other sanctions rollovers - via @engineroglu_fw

Sven Biscop on the NSS "The immediate lesson is this: offering concessions does not work. The supposed trade deal that the EU agreed on with the US on the Turnberry golf course last summer was a shameful surrender. And what did it get us: this NSS."

Europe got this treatment first. The Indo-Pacific is just the next stop on the tour. The rule is simple enough for a child to understand: Democracies get scolded. Autocracies get hugs.

Finally an EU leader hits back vs US NSS - Costa: "US no longer believes in multilateralism, rules-based order, climate change. We have differences in our worldviews. The strategy continues to speak of Europe as an ally. That’s good. But if we are allies, we must act as allies..

Wow - seems Germans not in the first batch of granted rare earth export licenses by China Johann Wadephul on his visit to China, asked if German companies received licenses: "We have received signals but there is still quite a lot of work to be done"

Live scenes from the temporary closure of the Delegation of the European Union to Eswatini

Jaw-dropping quote from Federica Mogherini, once the EU foreign-policy head “Just imagine taking the entire EEAS [EU diplomatic service] away from the world for 24 hours... Probably most of the places in the world would collapse before the 24 hours.” 😂 www.euractiv.com/news/rapport...

Chinese customs data for November out this morning - another huge surge in exports to Europe and more horrible numbers for Germany China's exports in Nov 25 vs Nov 24 (value terms, USD) to EU +14.8% Germany +15.5% Netherlands +7.4% France +17.5% Italy +25.4%

I really can't believe that the European Commission's response to Trump's NSS was: "“We welcome the strong priority the Strategy places on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. Europe and the United States share a responsibility in supporting a just and lasting peace"

Good piece by @VNiquet on Macron's visit to China "The most striking moment may have been Xi’s public and rather humiliating rebuff of Macron’s attempt to return with a trophy: Chinese condemnation of Russia. Beijing has no intention of abandoning its comfortable in-between"

1/US stepping up attacks on the EU. This has left many in Europe scratching their heads but it is part of the neo-royalist agenda. The EU stands for the rules based order and stands in the way of a new order based not on rules but clique interests. www.politico.eu/article/top-...

Most interesting quote in Macron post China interview in Les Echos is on ASML He proposes "mutual dismantling of our aggressive policies, such as restrictions on the export of semiconductor machinery on European side and... rare earths on Chinese side"

Good and nuanced long-read from Finbarr on Germanys economic woes and the role of China. Wuttke’s hypothesis - that the EU will react more firmly than China believes - is one that I share although how it pans out in practice remains uncertain.

So weird and injustified… but so clearly said. I am sorry for so many great US citizens and their great commitment to a peaceful better world. www.ft.com/content/ccbe...

The great slowdown: Germany at a standstill as ‘China shock’ hits As Europe’s biggest economy is pummelled by structural problems and external threats, rocky China ties are compounding the dreary picture My report from a rather depressing week in Berlin

Forgot to add context to this. It was soon after UK had finally Brexited, and this was explained to me as one of the only "Brexit dividends" - the UK could do their China sanctions and they were not leaked. Whereas in the EU, everything leaks. I got the sanctions leak from Brussels, and I was in HK

New: Dutch minister admits being blindsided by China’s retaliation in Nexperia chip crisis In which I read an 18,000 word transcript of Karremans' Nexperia hearing in the Dutch House of Representatives so you don't have to

Bonkers stuff in the NSS. It is like a far-right caricature of itself. The Trump admin believes it needs to save Europe from itself by backing far-right forces within Europe. As State Dept reprograms funding, get ready for the US to be the funders of far-right civil society in Europe.