In 2023, I wrote a public report that provided a first look at the Russian military-medical system in Ukraine and the issues it faced. Here's an update on our research at CNA on Russian Military Medical Adaptation in the Russia-Ukraine War. See our poster here: www.cna.org/quick-looks/... 1/2

Official translation of French President Macron’s Monday, 2 March speech on nuclear deterrence www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-...

"U.a. forderten die Bundesländer, den Schwellenwert von 500.000 versorgten Einwohnern auf 150.000 zu senken. [...] In ländlichen Regionen wird der Schwellenwert selten erreicht." shorturl.at/JCOXj

As the US leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development, write Anthony Dworkin, @rafaelloss.bsky.social, and @jpuglierin.bsky.social. @stiftungmercator.bsky.social 👇Full Policy Brief: https://bit.ly/4ay7SC9

PSA: mein @baks.bund.de Arbeitspapier zur bodengebundenen Luftverteidigung nach der Zeitenwende liefert Einordnungen zu Grundlagen und Funktionen, die auch mit Blick auf #EpicFury relevant sind: www.baks.bund.de/de/arbeitspa...

Some quick thoughts on Macron‘s speech and the announcement of deploying parts of the French Strategic Air Force an allied territory. 👇

French president Macron delivered his highly anticipated address on nuclear deterrence today. What he outlined concretises and operationalises the "European dimension" of French deterrence: ... une nouvelle étape de la dissuasion française : la « dissuasion avancée » www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-mac...

Joint declaration of President Macron and Chancellor Merz on closer Franco-German cooperation in the field of deterrence in response to the evolving threat landscape of 2 March 2026 www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/such...

Any French forward nuclear deployments would be temporary. France will set up consultative mechanisms with European allies similar to the existing UK-France Nuclear Steering Group. Effort complemented by enhanced early warning, conventional strike and air-defense capabilities.

To sum up the gist of Macron's nuclear speech: he is offering to forward-deploy the air leg of French nuclear forces to the territory of European allies. Decision-making will remain with the French president, and the arrangement will exist outside of NATO. He call this "forward deterrence."

With America’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to US extended nuclear deterrence. In this context, French president Emmanuel Macron’s address on nuclear deterrence, which is due to take place on Monday, is sure to draw particular scrutiny. My latest for @ecfr.eu 👇

New Reuters: Russia "fired the 9M729 at Ukraine twice in 2022 and 23 times between August and October last year, … fired at least four more of the missiles at Ukraine on February 17 [2026], … There have been other uses since October too". www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Suspicious minds: Why Europeans are considering their post-America nuclear options ecfr.eu/article/susp...

Putin has long wanted to extract concessions from NATO. The three factors deterring Russia from an attack—a war in Ukraine, military capacity, and NATO strength—are under unprecedented strain, write @menkiszakm.bsky.social and @mprochwicz.bsky.social 👉Full text: https://bit.ly/4aRstCO

Nice tribute to Germany's military chief in the @wsj.com. We're lucky to have allies like Germany.

This episode of @markhleonard.bsky.social's World in 30 Minutes podcast features a live recording of a conversation with US undersecretary of war for policy, Elbridge Colby, which took place during the Munich Security Conference 2026. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi... @ecfr.eu

"There is a school of thought that assumes an arms race will ensue any time the US does something with its arsenal [...] but changes to US forces are unlikely to engender a major departure from the current path of Russian force modernization." warontherocks.com/2026/02/runn...

The liberal, rules-based international order has served Europe well, but clinging to it risks marginalisation. What to do? Study and engage with the strategies of middle powers 👇 After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrpower.bsky.social

Sachstand zur geplanten Stationierung US-amerikanischer weitreichender Waffensysteme in Deutschland Regierungspressekonferenz vom 11. Februar 2026 www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktu...

"Man [suche] für Litauen Freiwillige für 1.971 Dienstposten, bisher aber hätten sich [...] nur 'rund 10%' der nötigen Freiwilligen gemeldet." Die Fantasie, unattraktive Teile des Soldaten-Dienstes nicht als Teil des Jobs, sondern als gut vergütetes Zusatz-Engagement zu verkaufen, ist gescheitert.

NATO’s Military Committee confirms www.nato.int/en/news-and-...

POLITICO reports that the US is looking to back out of several NATO commands: UK to lead NATO’s Joint Force Command in Norfolk, Va. and Italy to staff JFC Naples. Both are currently led by US officers. (US takes MARCOM instead.) subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2026... Called for this last Oct 👇

At the Conference on Disarmament today, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security (T) Thomas Di Nanno hinted at the expansion of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and accused China of conducting a low-yield nuclear test in 2020.

“Russia … may have exceeded the deployed warhead limit … during portions of 2024. Therefore, this constitutes a serious compliance concern.” 2021-2025.state.gov/2024-report-... You can’t in good faith agree to continue to observe limits which you didn’t observe in the first place.

Good. The U.S. and Russian Federation agreed to reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue www.eucom.mil/pressrelease...

Germany's Armoured Brigade 45 assumed command of NATO's Multinational Battlegroup Lithuania. The brigade's two other battalions were formally assigned last week; they will arrive in Lithuania by the end of 2027. For context and outlook, see: ecfr.eu/article/blue... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social

Freue mich sehr auf diesen Abend. Die Böll-Stiftung hat mich eingeladen, mein Buch vorzustellen. @annakatrein.bsky.social hat eingewilligt, mit mir dort darüber zu sprechen. Großes Danke an beide! Alle sind sehr herzlich eingeladen. 👇👇👇

❤️

In 2022, I proposed a PESCO project on "military permanence" with associated funding to support front-line states in creating the necessary infrastructure for growing forward formations: ecfr.eu/article/stay... ... but I take EIB money, too :) h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social

Only this week: 🇸🇪Swedish PM confirms talks on nuclear deterrence with France, UK 🇩🇪German chancellor confirms early discussions about a European nuclear deterrent 🇳🇱Dutch coalition agreement pledges to “take a constructive stance on strengthening a European nuclear deterrent” What a time to be alive!

Nuuk-lear standoff: Why the US and Europe should cooperate on missile defence in the Arctic ecfr.eu/article/nuuk... The standoff over Greenland strained alliance relations: but using NATO to improve cooperation and counter Russian nuclear coercion could be a silver lining to this episode, I argue.

It’s not a dream, Mark. It’s a fucking nightmare. And yet…

Ab heute gibt es mein Buch im Handel. Es geht um Russland, China und die Frage, was es heisst, wenn die USA vom Verbündeten zum Bully werden. Mein Buch zeigt, vor welchen sicherheitspolitischen Herausforderungen Europa steht, was zu tun ist, und welche Rolle Deutschland dabei spielt.

Mehr Zivilschutz wagen: Szenario zu möglichem Chemiewaffenangriff – mit düsteren Aussichten augengeradeaus.net/2026/01/mehr... @wiegold.de Hier die im wahrsten Sinne bemerkenswerte Risikoanalyse der Bundesregierung: dserver.bundestag.de/btd/21/036/2...

"European defence will need to be organised around regional and functional coalitions, enabling prompt response to crisis and conflict as NATO’s political cohesion frays."

"Wer verteidigt Europa?" @jpuglierin.bsky.social stellte heute ihr neues Buch im Gespräch mit @florianeder.bsky.social (@nzz Deutschland) vor - erhältlich ist es ab morgen im @rowohlt.bsky.social Verlag www.rowohlt.de/buch/jana-pu...

Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe ecfr.eu/article/disi... My quick-reaction policy alert on Trump's new National Defense Strategy.

»As President Trump has said, the war in Ukraine must end. As he has also emphasized, however, this is Europe’s responsibility first and foremost.« That's funny because I clearly remember him saying that only he could do it. And that it would take him only 24 hours.

Congratulations to everyone who has taken Bridge Colby seriously and helped along his career for the last two decades.

Hmm, on the one hand we Europeans supposedly can’t protect Greenland from a swarm of Russian ships… yet according to the new U.S. Defense Strategy, Russia is merely a manageable threat to Eastern Europe—one the Europeans can deal with on their own, almost effortlessly. 🤷‍♀️

“Russia will remain a persistent but manageable threat to NATO’s eastern members for the foreseeable future. … [Our] NATO allies are substantially more powerful than Russia … positioned to take primary responsibility for Europe’s conventional defense, with critical but more limited US support.”

2026 US National Defense Strategy dropped media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...

Peace for our time

The US plans to reduce the number of personnel it stationed within several key NATO command centers, a move that could intensify concerns in Europe about Washington's commitment to the alliance, three sources familiar with the matter said this week reut.rs/4bEPZUj

We're hiring! If someone you know is looking for student work experience in events, we are looking for someone to support the delivery of the Annual Council Meeting in Vienna in June. The position is for 3 months from mid-April as part of an excellent team in Berlin. Apply here! ecfr.eu/jobs/

Interwar British defence spending/what rearmament actually looks like. (Table from Peden’s Arms, Economics & British Strategy).

#Gesamtverteidigung umfasst militärische und zivile Verteidigung – beide sind untrennbar miteinander verbunden. Doch die zivile Seite hinkt in #DEU deutlich hinterher. Drei Handlungsfelder zeigen, wie Deutschland diese sicherheitspolitische Lücke schließen kann. Meine Analyse 👇 (DE/EN)

Herzlichen Glückwunsch an @jpuglierin.bsky.social! Gemeinsam mit @claudmajor.bsky.social vom @gmfus.bsky.social erhielt sie heute das Ehrenkreuz in Gold der Bundeswehr. Verteidigungsminister Pistorius würdigte damit die jahrelangen Verdienste der beiden. (Fotos: Bundeswehr / Tom Twardy)

Wohlstands-BRD about to defend Greenland *and* secure Ukraine