The Socialists in the EP have leveraged a no-confidence vote put up by the far right to effectively gut a major part of the reform of the EU budget. Stunning development that further imperils the prospect for a major MFF reform. I had hopes that this time would be different. But I was naive. Thread:

3,5% für harte Verteidigung sind im Haushaltsentwurf gesetzt – doch das 1,5%-Ziel bleibt unerwähnt. Trotz bestehender Konzepte zu ziviler Verteidigung und fortgeschrittener Debatten zum Infrastruktur-SV. Warum Deutschland das neue NATO-Ziel ernst nehmen sollte – unser Standpunkt bei @table.media 👇

New piece by @aleichthammer.bsky.social and me in @ipq.bsky.social: EU‘s cautious approach in the 🇺🇸🇪🇺 trade war has been useful, but has run its course as the 9 July deadline approaches. EU should prepare for flexible retaliation. 🧵 ip-quarterly.com/en/red-lines...

📄New #PolicyBrief: As talk of NATO’s 5% target grows, too little attention is paid to its novelty - 1.5% for non-military but defence-related areas. @schuetzt.bsky.social and I look at the risks of its vagueness and how to turn it into real strategic value 👇 #NATO #Resilience #Preparedness

A group of eight states (NL, FI, SE, EE, LV, LT, BE, LU) is calling for stronger EU-wide civilian preparedness. Germany is notably absent. Read my latest piece on why Germany should step up - by embracing a whole-of-society approach to security that goes beyond strategy papers and into practice 👇

Good interview with @ralphjanik.com on Austrian neutrality

🧵Was sagt der neue #Koalitionsvertrag zu #Gesamtverteidigung und gesellschaftlicher Resilienz? Der Versuch einer Analyse quer durch die Ressorts. Denn, Spoiler: Gesamtverteidigung bleibt ein Puzzle.

Trumps Politik hält Europa in Schach - nicht nur in Sicherheits-, sondern auch in Handelsfragen. Mein Kollege ordnet ein, was die EU jetzt tun kann/sollte 👇🏼

The European Preparedness Union Strategy was dropped today. It builds heavily on the Niinistö Report (Oct 2024), so not many surprises - but still an important development worth noting 🧵Read the thread with my key takeaways 👇

🧵 Thread: „Territoriale Konzessionen“ Wie realistisch ist Frieden für die Ukraine, wenn Russland noch mehr fordert als es schon hält? Ein Blick auf Maximalforderungen, Risiken & Optionen:

Zölle, sinkende Exporte, Sicherheitsrisiken - was kommt handelspolitisch auf die neue Bundesregierung zu? Mit @corajungbluth.bsky.social und Thieß Petersen habe ich Ideen zu den wichtigsten Problemfeldern aufgeschrieben - 🧵

"Unsere Sicherheit darf nicht durch haushaltspolitische Zwänge gefährdet werden." - Boris Pistorius' heutige Rede vor dem Deutschen Bundestag

Das gesamte Interview 👇

Haushaltsausschuss beschließt Änderungen des Grundgesetzes Verteidigungsausgaben und Sondervermögen: Der Haushaltsausschuss hat am Sonntag einem Gesetzentwurf der Fraktionen von SPD und CDU/CSU zur Änderung des Grundgesetzes zugestimmt.

Ein paar Auszüge, kann man in Details anders sehen, aber die Grundgedanken sind richtig: Verteidigung muss breit angelegt und anders organisiert werden. Die Koalitionsverhandlungen sind hingegen entlang alter Silos geplant. Kann so Innovation entstehen? @claudmajor.bsky.social

After a tumultuous few weeks, it's time for an interim picture - a round-up of voices from across Europe, including my very own commentary on #Austria, which once again has a special way of dealing with security matters. #Europeandefense #Transatlanticrelations #Ukraine

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg just delivered a major speech at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) on how the war in Ukraine could end. He laid out Trump’s approach to resolving the conflict—in his words, the most challenging foreign policy situation ahead. Thread with his main points 🧵⬇️

Trump delivered his first SOTU of his second term last night. Quite a watch. What stood out? Did Europe even get a mention? What does it all mean moving forward? I broke it down on DLF & Deutsche Welle this morning—here’s a short thread with my key takeaways:🧵:

Among other things, CDU and SPD agree on a 500 billion euro special fund for infrastructure. This is an important step for #civildefence, which can only form a credible #totaldefence together with the military if both are adapted to the current threat situation. #Gesamtverteidigung

CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy: - defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake - 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure - looser debt rules for states - further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag

Von der Leyen has just announced the Commission's "Rearm Europe" plan. The most important parts target national fiscal space: The Commission will activate the national escape clauses in the fiscal rules and put a new loans-based instrument on the table. Here is what it means:

Europe reacts - Part 2! Voices from across the continent after a month of transatlantic tensions, collected by my colleagues @schuetzt.bsky.social and @cemoll.bsky.social.

The real Donald has spoken: ↘️

Lindner hält Wort: FDP koaliert nicht mit den Grünen

Germany heads to the polls today for what could be an historic election in which the conservative CDU is likely to win and the far-right AfD is tracking for its best-ever outcome. Here’s how the results will be revealed 👇 Here’s where you’ll find them: ow.ly/rN3Z50V4V3O

Is the US commitment to NATO Trump-proof? Or could the alliance crumble? My colleague @brandonbohrn.bsky.social gives a brief overview of what's possible.

Should the EU unplug its fiscal rules to allow for a massive increase in defense spending? @nilsredeker.bsky.social and I explain in our new paper why that would not be a good idea and why changing the rules is a much better option. Short Thread on our main arguments:

Trump and Putin's long-anticipated call along with SecDef Hegseth’s NATO visit... major shifts are underway in US defense and security policy vis-a-vis Ukraine/EUR as the Munich Security Conference nears. What was said, and what are the initial responses? A brief thread 🧵⬇️

Unlawful? Economically counterproductive? Yes – and now? The Trump administration just announced 25% tariffs on all steel & aluminium imports. What’s the strategy behind this, and how will it impact Europe? Quick background 🧵together with @brandonbohrn.bsky.social 👇 #EUsky #econsky

I'm excited to share my latest article, co-authored with @schuetzt.bsky.social, on Europe's defence dependence. We argue that Europe's weak security capabilities are mainly, but not only, Europe's to fix. It requires changing transatlantic incentives, with US support.

2025 is not even two weeks old, but it already promises to be one of the most turbulent years of this century. We explain which developments are particularly worth following and what they mean for Europe. What is certain: Building unity could make or break the European project. shorturl.at/34G8u

Different countries, different strategic cultures - what does Europe expect from Trump 2.0 in the area of security & defence? Our compilation of country views 👇🏼

Poland steps into the EU Council Presidency spotlight on Jan 1, 2025 aiming to bolster security/defence & Ukraine. A critical moment for Europe’s future--is Poland taking the role just in time? Read an overview by Helena Quis @heqs.bsky.social here: globaleurope.eu/europes-futu... #EU #Poland