Everyone talks about #geoeconomics, we’re mapping it: Together with colleagues @bst-europe.bsky.social @wiiw.ac.at, ECIPE, we created the Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index, measuring the EU's trade, finance and policy footprint in its neighbourhood, compared to China, Russia & US. Main findings 🧵

Our reaction to von der Leyen’s #SOTEU 2025 address yesterday. A serious speech with bold appeals & many initiatives. But is there the unity & coherence of initiatives to accomplish the agenda? A thread on the main points from each of our experts. Full article ➡️ bst-europe.eu/europe-in-th... 1/9

Regardless of one's politics, this is horrifying. Only 31 years old, leaving behind a wife and two very young children, just 3 and 1. It brings to mind recent polling showing that a sizeable number of Americans believe violence is justified to achieve political aims. Just terrible.

Economic Security is central to the EU’s external strategy - see SOTEU today - but cooperation with the UK remains nascent. Political and structural reasons are behind this but @antonspisak.bsky.social and I think there are grounds for deeper cooperation: www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/our-proje...

My colleagues from the Bertelsmann St's Europe program offer analysis on today's #SOTEU25 from Com. Pres. VDL on UKR/RUS, competitiveness, China, trade, technology, and transatlantic relations. Have a read here: bst-europe.eu/europe-in-th... @bertelsmannst.bsky.social @bst-europe.bsky.social

As the EU prepares the next Russia sanctions package, @miriamkosmehl.bsky.social explains what could be an effective focus: oil trade and the shadow fleet; banks, dual-use goods and financial flows; and tackling circumvention through third countries. Read more here➡️ bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...

15% tariffs, breaches of WTO rules, more tech dependency – the US deal is a far cry from what the EU wanted. This was not a one-off accident, but exposes longstanding structural weaknesses in EU trade policy that will affect any future negotiation. My analysis🧵 bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...

Enjoyed speaking with DW News this morning about Texas Rs’ and California Ds’ competing redistricting bills, the potential ripple effects in other critical states, and the broader implications as we head into next year’s midterm elections. Link to view here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2m3...

"German sentiment sits with the UK, but the strategy always stays with the EU”. My thoughts in @economist.com on the - otherwise highly welcome and well-crafted - Anglo-German Friendship Treaty announced today. Thanks to @sambeal.bsky.social www.economist.com/britain/2025...

New piece by @aleichthammer.bsky.social and me in @ipq.bsky.social: EU‘s cautious approach in the 🇺🇸🇪🇺 trade war has been useful, but has run its course as the 9 July deadline approaches. EU should prepare for flexible retaliation. 🧵 ip-quarterly.com/en/red-lines...

We’re live in Berlin with a full house! Daniela Schwarzer and Lucas Guttenberg kick off a spirited discussion on whether coalitions of the willing can save Europe. Follow here for more updates and insights ⬇️

🚀 We have a new website! We offer evidence-based ideas and practical recommendations to strengthen Europe’s ability to act—on Europe's economy, resilience, geopolitics and more. Explore the new website → bst-europe.eu

Eine gut abgestimmte Dosis praktischer Solidarität in der #EU würde helfen, den sich anbahnenden Handelskonflikt mit den #USA zu überstehen, schreiben @aslak.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social und @aleichthammer.bsky.social im heutigen Europe.Table von @table.media 👉 table.media/europe/stand...

Der #Koalitionsvertrag ist da! Was steht drin zu Handel und Investitionen? Leider wenig neue Impulse. „Geopolitischer Epochenbruch“ steht anderswo drin, zeigt sich hier aber nicht.

🧵Was sagt der neue #Koalitionsvertrag zu #Gesamtverteidigung und gesellschaftlicher Resilienz? Der Versuch einer Analyse quer durch die Ressorts. Denn, Spoiler: Gesamtverteidigung bleibt ein Puzzle.

Was kann die EU mit Blick auf die US-Zölle tun? Verhandeln, Gegenmaßnahmen, an Andere denken, sich auf Größeres vorbereiten 🧵

I joined DW news this afternoon to discuss Susan Crawford's victory that ultimately shapes the balance of Wisconsin's Supreme Court. We covered Musk's involvement and interests, as well as the broader implications moving forward. Link to discussion👇 : www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kh-u...

Heute Nacht ab 22 Uhr CEST kündigt die US-Administration massive neue #Zölle an - was wir bis jetzt (nicht) wissen: 🧵

Nuuk Nuuk, who’s there? (ok showing myself out quietly)

Trump verhängt Zusatzzölle von 25% auf Autos, bald auch auf Autoteile. Auch in deutschen Medien wird immer wieder industriepolitisches Sanewashing betrieben, aber: Das ist sicher kein 4D-Schach-Move, der die US-Autoindustrie rettet.

The White Paper on EU defence is out. Of course, I read it, and I can say: if you love EU acronyms and the nitty-gritty of EU instruments and details, you will love it. If you just want to know the key elements, better read my thread. 🧵 commission.europa.eu/topics/defen...

Neuer Policy Brief von drei meiner klügsten Kolleg/innen, (Etienne Höra, Cora Jungbluth, und Thieß Petersen) zu handelspolitischen Themen für die nächste Bundesregierung 👇 www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/de/unsere-pr...

Will add these to my reading list. Also: half of the books on the list are (co-) authored by women - I think that's worth mentioning because many, many bibliographies/ reading suggestion lists on global affairs etc. are still male-dominated.

Based on conversations this afternoon on the Hill, barring any last-minute surprises, the House Republicans appear to have secured the votes needed for a seven-month Continuing Resolution to pass.

I wrote a new piece for foreign policy. The US's postwar role as guarantor of Europe’s security is over – and may even turn adversarial. But Europe has an overlooked trump card. When it comes to manufacturing Europe blows the US out of the water. Thread. 1/ foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/07/e...

Congress and the White House face major budget decisions in 2025, with risks of sequestration, debt ceiling battles, and shutdowns—including one this week. Here’s a breakdown of key milestones and what’s at stake, in particular, for U.S. defense spending. 🧵

“President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order Thursday suspending security clearances held by employees of the law firm that hired Fusion GPS, which produced the infamous Steele Dossier in 2016” www.breitbart.com/politics/202...

A day later, I am genuinely marvelling at the fact that one of the most pro-Ukrainian officials in the Trump administration thought it was a good idea to publicly describe the intelligence cut-off as akin to hitting a mule in its face with a piece of wood to get its attention.

Highly recommend this read 👇

Managing the Transatlantic Divorce: A roadmap towards a European way of war www.epc.eu/en/publicati...

Only 16% of Germans say one can trust the US. That’s just 6%pts over Russia and a minus of 38%pts. Source www.tagesschau.de/inland/deuts...

Bad news, if confirmed. No more commercial satellite data from the US for Ukraine. Unless private interests in the US, including defense manufacturers, push back, it is very likely that Ukraine will be entirely cut off from US supply chains and products. 1/2 www.express.co.uk/news/world/2...

Trump is again raising doubts about the US abiding by NATO’s Article 5. It is not the first time. And - to be clear - European leaders such as Merz are saying they no longer trust the U.S. to do so. This is an enormous win for Russia which has sought to weaken or break up NATO for decades.

In case you missed Kellog‘s speech, a great recap by @brandonbohrn.bsky.social 👇

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg just delivered a major speech at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) on how the war in Ukraine could end. He laid out Trump’s approach to resolving the conflict—in his words, the most challenging foreign policy situation ahead. Thread with his main points 🧵⬇️

To everyone praising #Trump's negotiation and peacemaking skills: This will come at a heavy cost-#Ukrainian lives. Pushing pressure on one party, the victim of aggression, does not create the foundation for a just and lasting peace. www.ft.com/content/c58f...

Since 2017, the U.S. and EU have pledged to cut reliance on Chinese imports—but their actions tell a different story. This infographic breaks down the shifts in import value and share from 2017 to 2023.

Coercive diplomacy, bullying, call it what you will. But this type of transactional, tit-for-tat foreign policy has real life-and-death consequences for Ukrainian civilians and troops on the ground. Agree with @shashj.bsky.social, a dark day for US foreign policy indeed.

Trump delivered his first SOTU of his second term last night. Quite a watch. What stood out? Did Europe even get a mention? What does it all mean moving forward? I broke it down on DLF & Deutsche Welle this morning—here’s a short thread with my key takeaways:🧵:

In my RAND paper on defending NATO Eastern Flank without the US, I argued that we need 3 EUR DIV (45k troops) in the Baltics to generate credible deterrence. This highlights its difficulties, let alone doing it with a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine simultaneously. kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/pu...

Shifting allegiances or limited ambitions? With mixed US signals on Europe’s defense & talks of Western troops in Ukraine, EU security is at a crossroads. My colleagues @cemoll.bsky.social and @schuetzt.bsky.social are tracking reactions across Europe—stay tuned! 👇 globaleurope.eu/europes-futu...

🚨 Macron-Trump press conference - takeaways ➡️ Macron told Trump that Europeans are ready to "go as far as sending troops" ➡️ Trump says Putin would accept European peacekeeping troops ➡️ Zelenskyy could visit US "this or next week" to finalise minerals+ deal

“US joins Russia to vote against UN resolution condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine” www.cnn.com/2025/02/24/p...

This is arguably the best outcome for transatlantic relations—an independent, more capable Europe will improve relations with this administration and strengthen ties with the US in the long-term.

Merz just said on German TV that the primary priority of his government will be to ensure that Europe can achieve full strategic independence from the United States in the defence against Russia. Merz was once a die hard Atlanicist. Now, after Trump he is a Gaullist. Extraordinary.

Wegen Zeitverschiebung: Trump gratuliert Merz bereits um 14.30 Uhr zum Wahlsieg

“Die Lage ist ernst, 
nehmen Sie sie auch ernst!” Mein Brief aus Washington in der neuesten Ausgabe der Internationalen Politik 👇 (Danke für die Einladung zum Schreiben, ⁦‪@MaBialecki‬⁩!) internationalepolitik.de/de/die-lage-...

Have heard this point echoed even within congressional offices defending Vance's speech. Not a view limited to this White House.

As the German federal election approaches this Sunday, re-upping this video from time at @bertelsmannfdn.bsky.social, now at over 200,000 views. One caveat: the BSW is the only party not included in this video (those were simpler times...). www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8qf...

Post MSC, getting several questions about a US withdraw from NATO. The strategy of this administration is at times unclear, but here’s an overview of what’s possible. Many point to a 2023 law that blocks withdrawal without Congress. But Trump might have a way around it—one he’s used before. 🧵