The EU's struggle to ratify the #Mercosur deal exposes a weakness in Europe's geoeconomic playbook, argues @antonspisak.bsky.social in a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight. Read here: buff.ly/IESx33T

The SC ruling is big news, but it’s not the end of Trump’s tariffs. It means Trump administration will almost certainly look for other legal hooks to bring them back. And product-specific (Section 232) tariffs on steel/alum remain unaffected. Expect a lot more uncertainty before Trump strikes again.

New piece with former fellow ECB hand @thinicemacro.bsky.social. At the Munich Security Conference, the ECB made its geopolitical move, opening repo lines to central banks globally. It was probably the most consequential policy announcement at the conference. 1/ www.cer.eu/insights/ecb...

Great article @antonspisak.bsky.social

Killer conclusion - "Unless the EU finds a better way to align its domestic political and institutional incentives in line with its external aims, its ambitions will continue to outrun its capacity to deliver."

New from me: a short piece on what comes next for the EU-Mercosur deal (spoiler: more trouble), and what ratification hurdles tell us about the EU's capacity to deliver on its geoeconomic ambitions.

This should be front-page news. The collapse in UK goods exports is the single biggest reason why UK economic growth hasn’t picked up in recent years. Brexit is a big part of it, but there’s also a major China shock to UK export competitiveness that’s gone largely unnoticed in UK political debate.

Worth noting that the only two European capitals on Rubio’s post-Munich tour were Budapest and Bratislava. Orbán and Fico. This is the NSS in action: “cultivating resistance within European nations”. And it’s probably just the beginning. www.ft.com/content/929c...

🎙️“How do things stand in the EU-UK relationship and what the prospects for the future?” @cerianbond.bsky.social asked @antonspisak.bsky.social and @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social in the #CERpodcast.🎙️ Listen here:

A pleasure to discuss aspects of the EU-UK reset from defence to trade with @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social & @antonspisak.bsky.social .

Missed this yesterday. Massive boost for Ukraine’s arms industry, who have been pushing for export controls to be lifted. Creates even more opportunity to develop new equipment, innovate and fund the defensive effort. Great news.

Right that the prime minister has resigned. His successor, Keir Starmer, has a very difficult inheritance.

Absolutely inexcusable. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Mr Fico's Smer has dodged a bullet there by 1) Running Mr Šefčovič instead of Mr Lajčák for president in 2019 2) Mr Šefčovič losing and returning to the EC instead of Mr Lajčák replacing him 3) Failing to secure Mr Lajčák's appointment as the EU Special Representative for Central Asia

Streeting is right. By the time the UK political debate catches up with the reality of under-30s, who are facing marginal tax rates of 50%+ and not being able to afford decent housing, it’ll be too late.

“Brutal” is how one Labour MP describes PMQs, saying that, unlike previous weeks when back benchers have had Starmer’s back, there was “no willing him [the PM] on” this time. Feels like a dangerous few hours for the government.

It is worth recalling that the position of U.K. Ambassador to the US was not vacant at the time the Prime Minister chose to appoint Peter Mandelson to the role. A highly competent and respected woman was replaced.

Quite an extraordinary connection between Miroslav Lajcak and Epstein. Lajcak, former Slovak foreign minister, EU Balkans envoy and, until last Sunday, Fico’s foreign policy adviser, privately met Epstein in his Paris flat two months before Epstein’s death. All recorded using an official govt email.

The Sánchez 🇪🇸 government has - built Europe's boom economy - hiked minimum wage from €736 to €1221 - cut insecure work from c.30% to c.13% - regularised, not demonised, migrants - stood up for human rights - refused to humiliate itself before Trump No wonder Musk hates it.

After a period in hibernation (aka a book sabbatical), I'm delighted to be joining @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social full-time. Few think-tanks are better placed than CER to lead the debate on Europe’s future. I’ll be writing on trade policy, economic security, & UK-EU relations (plus the odd detour!).

🎙️ Listen to our new #CERpodcast ‘Unpacking Europe’ on the implications of ruptures in EU-US relations with @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @antonspisak.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social 🎙️ Listen here: buff.ly/z30mXwQ

Any speech that cites Vaclav Havel is a good speech, but Mark Carney’s was exceptional. The sharpest diagnosis yet of the moment we’re in by a Western politician. Intelligent politicians aren’t an entirely extinct species – phew!

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

Worth noting that the EU’s reluctant tariff concessions to the US, agreed between VdL and Trump at Turnberry, haven’t yet been approved by the European Parliament. There’s no realistic prospect of the US deal going through now.

The real question is why sitting members of the UK Parliament are allowed to take on second jobs that run contrary to the stated national interest. If this episode, with failings evident for all to see, doesn’t force reform of the system, nothing ever will.

Morals aside, how is it remotely possible that Shadow Attorney General — and a serving member of the UK legislature, of any political affiliation — can lawfully take on work representing a Russian oligarch sanctioned by the UK government?

"Without closer cooperation, one thing is clear: the EU and the UK will keep confronting the same threats with little alignment." ✍️ @antonspisak.bsky.social & @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social argue the UK and EU should cooperate more on questions of ‘economic security ukandeu.ac.uk/is-economic-...

I would not discount the impact of the NSS "civilizational" language. Political meddling in Europe to back far-right nationalists is now a core part of America's national strategy. This isn't just a speech from a novice VP weeks into a new term. It is US policy and they will try to implement it. 1/

1/Quick thoughts of implications of US National Security Strategy for Europe -- weaponized interdependence meets nationalist international. The US will use its tools (economic, technology, and financial dominance) to press for far right agenda. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

The next time you hear political shouting about defunding arts and humanities education, and creative degrees not offering good enough “value for money”, remember this letter.

Great culture can save lives. Literally. Amazing letter in today’s @thetimes.com about Tom Stoppard

A deeply disturbing thread on how AI models can distort reality and propagate falsehoods. We’re entering a new era of profound change where the social impacts of using AI will be beyond anything we can reasonably imagine today, and it’ll probably involve a new wave of mental health problems.

RIP Tom Stoppard—the most talented contemporary British playwright—also known as Tomáš Sträussler, born in Czechoslovakia and fled as a Jewish refugee to England in 1946. Freedom wasn’t only a theatrical device for him but something personal, and perhaps that’s what made all the difference.

A reminder, before the budget, that the UK has been facing the most severe trade stagnation in a generation. One big reason why the British economy hasn’t been growing.

This research is important because it corroborates what we already knew - that when comparing the UK to peer economies, it has had a big slowdown since 2016. It does so with firm-level data and finds more EU-connected firms have sizeable shortfalls in productivity and investment compared to less.

This shows how insane the immigration debate is in the UK. There isn’t even a reliable official source of the numbers of migrants, since the Home Office isn’t capable of recording the numbers of people crossing the UK border. This leaves the national statistical agency having to estimate numbers.

Today was a very important day: the 36th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution. Also a day when over 50,000 people went into the streets in Bratislava, despite a terrible rain storm, in protest of Fico’s government in Slovakia. Here’s why it really mattered. /1

The Swiss publisher Ringier, a staunch defender of the rule of law, sells its stake of the most widely read Hungarian newspaper to a pro-Orbán media group, just before the most consequential election in Hungary’s recent history. Values first – just not today. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...

When people learn with ChatGPT instead of following their own searches, they end up knowing less, caring less, and producing worse advice, even when the facts are the same. Friction is an essential ingredient for learning! Convenience makes us shallow. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...

Congratulations to my dear friend Gregor Valentovic on his debut film Nepela, out in cinemas this week. A powerful story of a Czechoslovak figure skater and the 1972 Olympic champion whose personal fight for freedom collided with the brutal wall of totalitarianism. And a cinematic masterpiece.

Weak goods exports have weighed on the UK’s post-pandemic growth more than any other factor – including weak investment. And yet, this fact is almost entirely absent from Britain’s political debate about growth.

@antonspisak.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, a think-tank, observes that, after Brexit took effect at the end of 2020, Britain’s goods exports have grown less than those of any other economy in the G7 club of rich countries.

The Babis-Orban-Fico axis has been reborn within the EU. There we go again.

Another nail in the coffin of Slovakia’s democracy. Parliament has today approved a constitutional amendment that enshrines recognition of “only two sexes” (male and female), restricts adoption to married heterosexual couples, and ends the primacy of EU law over “ethical and cultural matters”. 1/4

This is a serious proposal by Merz – and one that could help move the debate on frozen Russian assets forward.

The last words of Czechoslovakia’s founder TG Masaryk were sealed for 90 years, but worth the wait: “If people are uneducated and foolish, there is not much that can be done. People are glad to be foolish. Do not make it easy for them, and argue with them.” www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...

An idea I’m confident all of Europe could unite behind: a European Solidarity Fund for the Redevelopment of Schuman.

The world feels a bit much right now, so here’s Faustus the cat stretching out in the summer sun. Good week to all.

When European policymakers talk about ‘economic security’, they’re really talking about China. Chart from our new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social, in which we mapped EU and UK trade vulnerabilities (and offered some ideas why the two should collaborate), published earlier this week.

Something reassuring about this picture: truth cannot be erased, however determined the effort.