The last words of Czechoslovakia’s founder TG Masaryk were sealed for 90 years, but worth the wait: “If people are uneducated and foolish, there is not much that can be done. People are glad to be foolish. Do not make it easy for them, and argue with them.” www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...

An idea I’m confident all of Europe could unite behind: a European Solidarity Fund for the Redevelopment of Schuman.

The world feels a bit much right now, so here’s Faustus the cat stretching out in the summer sun. Good week to all.

When European policymakers talk about ‘economic security’, they’re really talking about China. Chart from our new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social, in which we mapped EU and UK trade vulnerabilities (and offered some ideas why the two should collaborate), published earlier this week.

Something reassuring about this picture: truth cannot be erased, however determined the effort.

Economic security is the agenda du jour in Brussels. Yet it is conspicuously absent from the EU-UK 'reset'. In a new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social for @bertelsmannst.bsky.social, we argue this is a mistake and set out what can be done about it. www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/publicati...

Economic Security is central to the EU’s external strategy - see SOTEU today - but cooperation with the UK remains nascent. Political and structural reasons are behind this but @antonspisak.bsky.social and I think there are grounds for deeper cooperation: www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/our-proje...

Cooper to the FCDO isn’t good news for Labour’s EU reset: her hardline position on youth mobility alienated key capitals, especially Berlin, and now risks slowing progress just as substantive talks begin. Also, Lammy’s stock in Brussels has been steadily rising. A counterproductive move.

Not okay. Disagree with the ideas and the arguments, but vandalism isn’t the way to do so.

For the first time a joint cabinet meeting of the French and German governments were today briefed by economists from each country - they covered 5 points, one of which was "trade with China" cae-eco.fr/principaux-e...

A casual-looking wall with nothing casual about it. Where am I?

Ah yes, Brexit is “done”. The speed with which Britain forgot its most vulnerable place, once political urgency passed, is remarkable.

UK Ministry of Defence intelligence report this morning: “It would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100 per cent of the four Ukrainian oblasts’ territory, [which] would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties (killed or wounded).”

“It will end in tears for the government. We are seeing retired magistrates, retired and serving doctors and all sorts of people being arrested and now effectively being equated with terrorists such as al-Qaida, which is absolutely wrong.” Peter Hain is right. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Nothing short of extraordinary: the US government is now imposing de facto capital controls on two of the most ultra-lucrative US firms in an ultra-lucrative sector.

The right thing to do by Germany, even if much delayed. What further evidence of the Israeli crimes does the British government need to do the same?

Germany’s industrial production keeps falling and is now at its lowest level since the 2020 pandemic recession. Appease Trump’s EU tariffs or no - they land in an already weak environment for German industry. And China’s exports are supercharged by an undervalued renminbi. 1/

I'm waiting for a book that compiles the most unhinged floorplans of the most unhinged UK properties – excavated from local authority planning portals.

Planning law is perhaps the UK’s most formidable single weapon in geo-politics. More than Trident.

One interesting thing about the US trade deficit is that it's been remarkably stable as a share of US GDP since the 2009 financial crisis. You wouldn't know it from the US media coverage or most policy debates

On the EU-US deal: I sympathise with the view that the EU was slow to act, and had it moved earlier, it may’ve secured a marginally better deal (though unlikely below 10%). But remember, the EU was negotiating from the position of a relative vulnerability: it has a large trade surplus with US, and

The EU-US trade deal is here - it's probably not the end of uncertainty as the details are ironed out, but it's a momentous deal. In sum, it's a political defeat for the EU, but in economic terms I see it as, under the circumstances, a win of sorts. 🧵

We are all @sabineweyand.bsky.social, now and for the rest of this US administration’s days

This is horrific. Utterly horrific. At this point, silence on what’s happening in Gaza amounts to complicity.

To talk about trade in Britain without mentioning the EU is a bit like trying to explain the solar system without mentioning the sun. (A chart from the forthcoming piece of work...)

If only the EU had any levers, economic or diplomatic, to press Israel to end its inhumane and illegal actions in Gaza. We, Europeans, really learn nothing from our history.

This is a real and significant achievement for Europe – and I'm surprised that European leaders don't make more of it publicly. (That's not to say it's sufficient to meet what Ukraine needs, especially given where the conflict stands right now)

Good statement that makes clear Israel is deliberately massacring starving civilians. "We condemn the drip feeding of aid and the inhumane killing of civilians, including children, seeking to meet their most basic needs of water and food. " www.gov.uk/government/n...

A thread on the silliness of the Braverman report on leaving the ECHR. Incoherent on the rights in question and how an international agreement like the GFA is reworked, deaf to the failures of these shenanigans during Brexit and promoted by those who confuse English Nationalism with Unionism:

Update: the first batch of London figs. Dozens more still on the tree. Swap your south France holiday for south London.

Slovakia is facing many serious issues, but the comparison with Hungary, and between Fico and Orbán, often feels a bit lazy. The state of civil society and the opposition are markedly different in the two counties, and Fico’s motivations aren’t the same as Orbán. www.politico.eu/article/eu-l...

Socialist modernism meets the post-1989 capitalist utopia. Kosice, Slovakia

Key chart showing why the markets remain skeptical of Trump's tariff policy: there are messy announcements and then there is an actual reality. That said, I think the markets currently underprice the more permanent shift in US trade policy, esp the medium-term tightening of import openness.

Sort of grateful to Musk & his Hitlerbot for so consistently proving, on a platform still inexplicably used by govt, exactly why barely bothering to regulate AI &leaving its development up to people like him is such a monumentally dumb idea www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

Truly shocking story — and a powerful illustration how large AI chatbots run on an even larger, energy-sucking physical infrastructure

whenever i see grok screenshots i remember how it's running on methane-gas generators in a black neighborhood in memphis www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

Controversial view, I know, but this may be the only thing on which I agree with Farage. I’d go as far as saying govt depts should have a second perm sec who is politically appointed and accountable for delivery of the govt’s agenda.

Pretty extraordinary: the Chinese Communist Party now seems worried about Chinese industrial overcapacity. Too much price competition!

The Commission isn't keen on the UK joining PEM. This, I believe, reflects a view in Brussels that anything left out of the Lancaster House package is, for now, off the table. Understandably frustrating for the UK govt, but unlikely to shift before the next summit. www.ft.com/content/0cb5...

How to win friends in Brussels, exhibit 1563:

I bet the Slovak foreign minister Blanar would warmly welcome Russian soldiers if they ever invaded Slovakia. He is an utter disgrace — like his boss, Robert Fico — and not fit for public office.

Some thoughts on the UK’s new trade strategy – and more broadly, on how to think about government strategies (which seem to be in vogue in the UK these days):

Encouraging to see this by Douglas Alexander, UK trade minister, as the British government launches a new trade strategy this morning. I’ll share some thoughts once I’ve had a chance to read it.

I’ll write something more substantive on the UK’s industrial strategy after the trade strategy, due later this week, is published. But two initial thoughts after reading most of the documents:

😵‍💫 (Reading the UK's new industrial strategy page by page. Nearing the end now, and I'm starting to wonder if this policy area may have been just a little overthought)

Excellent summary of the economics of Brexit, nine years on, in a new paper by @johnspringford.bsky.social. Well worth a read. Key point is that most pre-referendum estimates were broadly correct – not exactly surprising to anyone looking at the state of the UK economy today.

Chart-heavy thread incoming. This is an attempt to survey the research to answer the question - were the forecasts predicting a lot of Brexit damage correct? 1/n.

Where to begin with this one? (From the UK's fresh Industrial Strategy published today)

“Prioritising” 30 sectors in UK industrial strategy would mean only one thing: that there was no prioritisation at all and that the strategy is no strategy at all. I really hope this Politico report isn’t true.

News for EU policy nerds: the legal texts for 20 new or updated EU-Switzerland agreements were published earlier this week. Happy trawling!