As Russia continues to threaten the eastern flank of NATO with drone flights and bombings in Ukrainian cities, the US...reduces troops from Romania. The "political symbolism is a bit weird to have right now”. Ya think? thehill.com/policy/defen...

👇👇

As Trump Admin uses mob-like tactics to threaten diplomats at international climate talks, important to reengage conversation on what is legitimate use of the economic weapon. New open access piece in JIEL w/Elena Chachko. (academic.oup.com/jiel/article...) www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/c...

NEW: I’m calling on Trump to cancel private jet flights instead of commercial airlines. Private jet flights often take a single billionaire passenger, but still put real strain on our air traffic control system.

The conclusion of a great 🧵

1/Forget abundance. Welcome to the politics of scarcity. The Trump Administration is saying Americans will need to live with less -- fewer flights, less food aid, smaller universities, shrunken federal workforce. Why? Its not about prosperity but power. apnews.com/article/gove...

We will now address affordability by cutting supply of airline flights right before the holidays. Pain is the point, not governing. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/11...

Trump policies may fulfill the demographics is destiny arguments made by the democrats in the 2000s. Turns out policy not demographics matter for destiny.

@himself.bsky.social nails it. People have so much pent up energy to be organized/to help. So enough with the text messages for $ and let’s get the Party started doing stuff for everyday people.

One of the least remarked parts of Mamdani's speech yesterday was its strong implication that he wants his army of 100k volunteers to stick around and do stuff.

The Stacie Goddard @abenewman.bsky.social synthesis

"A plausible emerging order, which we label neo-royalism... centers on ruling cliques, networks of political, capital, and military elites" www.dropbox.com/preview/Neo-...

"What Is the future of diplomacy when going to a sleepy UN meeting on shipping puts you and your family in the cross hairs of the full force of US coercion? As platforms of cooperation become the site of coercion the international system will quickly break down."

Sounds awesome.

Ooh…can’t wait to read. Have been thinking about this a lot in the context of solar geoengineering.

I hope Mark Carney is following this closely. Bessent’s comments re Canada gave off similar vibes (not the childish Blue Jays jab).

Looking forward to reading this new work by Abe and Elana. In recent work, I likewise concluded that States could improve their assessment of supply and influence, and build out crisper norms for tools directed to the detriment of other states versus improving domestic/club objectives.

1/UAE Chip deal offers textbook case in neo-royalism. Elite ties rather than national security drive dealmaking. The winner is not national security but Trump inner circile. www.reuters.com/world/china/...

Not surprising, but still stunning. Great thread.

European negotiators were personally targeted by their American counterparts during a brutal negotiation over green shipping rules, European Commission officials told POLITICO.  This highly unusual gambit left diplomats shaken after the meeting. 

Piercing analysis from @tompepinsky.com on the US in the Asia Pacific: "They must prepare for a future in which the United States cannot lead, regardless of who is in power." In a forthcoming @iojournal.bsky.social piece, @sdhyde.bsky.social & I conclude the same for US global leadership generally.

What Is the future of diplomacy when going to a sleepy UN meeting on shipping puts you and your family in the cross hairs of the full force of US coercion? As platforms of cooperation become the site of coercion the international system will quickly break down.

1/When @himself.bsky.social and I wrote about the future of US economic coercion we hoped that the tools could be used for global collective goods like climate. Now US “evaluating sanctions on officials sponsoring activist-driven climate policies”’ on.ft.com/4qJF3Ko

If you have not yet listened to Sen Slotkin on Trump’s plans please take the 15 minutes. Clear eyed, concise, and a call to action. youtu.be/fnUO0Plcpbo

US foreign economic policy adrift: “China now faces tariffs not significantly higher than those imposed on our erstwhile allies in the European Union.” open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

⚡One Nvidia GB300 computing rack uses more electricity than 100 homes ⚡One AI training run can require 10 trillion trillion operations, more than the number of observable stars ⚡ Sector absorbing massive amount of capital, farmland, and pirated texts For this... www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

1/Trump didnt just get a crown in Korea. It is symbolic of an emerging world order marked not by states but hyper elites and absolute sovereigns. The crown symbolized the “divine connection between the authority of the heavens and sovereignty on earth”. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/w...

I never knew Halloween could feel heavy, but it's hard to slap on a smile and gear up for a holiday about gorging on candy when millions of kids are about to lose SNAP benefits.

Might be time to call United…

Latest Transatlantic Tremors: New US and EU Russia Sanctions, the Dutch Election and a potential EU Financial Market Reform open.substack.com/pub/transatl...

Recent US Layoff Announcements: 1 UPS: 48,000 2 Amazon: Up to 30,000 3 Intel: 24,000 4 Nestle: 16,000 5 Accenture: 11,000 6 Ford: 11,000 7 Novo Nordisk: 9,000 8 Microsoft: 7,000 9 PwC: 5,600 10 Salesforce: 4,000 11 Paramount: 2,000 12 Target: 1,800 13 Kroger: 1,000 14 Applied Materials: 1,444

FEDWATCH: ".. In case you missed it, watch this fascinating interview on @cnbc.com where Stuart Russell, professor of computer science at UC Berkeley, painted a scenario of how machines could take total control .." www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VPo...

"I DON'T NEED YOU TO FUCKING REWRITE WHAT I'VE JUST WRITTEN!"

What is civil society, and why should we care? Ernest Gellner on the conditions of liberty. www.programmablemutter.com/p/what-is-ci...

"Clear, lucid, and unsettling in its implications...For policymakers, strategists, and anyone interested in the future of American power, Underground Empire is required reading. It does not tell you what to think. It forces you to confront what already is." www.e-ir.info/2025/10/21/r...

ec.europa.eu/commission/p... #WeaponizedInterdependence, as they say, it is happening.

Germany's unlikely new China hawk - president of central bank, has found his wings. Nagel says EU should be ready to retaliate against Beijing If retaliation is a last resort, “I would say, okay, we have to be strong and have to take a bold decision"

VDL on "underlying and fundamental reshaping of the world economy." "We are in the middle of a systemic shift in how countries work with each other – and against each other. Every day, we see how the tools of traditional statecraft are being used to weaponise interdependencies

1/ As Trump goes to Asia, EU leaders threaten to take action on China. Rare earth restrictions may have finally brought the EU out of its slumber. At the same time, Europe pushing for greater free trade agreements with the rest of the world. Will action match words? www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Great piece by @agathedemarais.bsky.social. Canada's quite march to geo-economic resilience offers a roadmap to the EU and beyond. The key is to recognize that a. the post war bargain is over b. believe you have agency to forge a new path. foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/20/c...

New phase in use of the energy weapon. US and Qatar threaten EU natural gas supplies if EU does not revise climate laws. Given EU shifted to 'trusted supplier' post Russia war, another marker of how dependence becomes vulnerability. And this time climate pays the price. www.ft.com/content/05ec...

Sheesh. The Netherlands has curtailed intelligence co-operation with the US over fears the Trump administration could use it to violate human rights or assist Russia. www.ft.com/content/af80...

What would responsible economic statecraft look like? New piece w/ @elenachachko.bsky.social in Journal of International Economic Law outlining basic principles to restrain and justify the use of economic weapons. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

The great @abenewman.bsky.social and I have a new paper in JIEL titled Building Norms of Economic coercion. It's a roadmap for thinking about the legitimacy of different instances of economic coercion, from unilateral sanctions to the tariff wars. Link below

+1 recommend. I was just chatting about this to a student in my office, and pulled the book off the shelf!

A ripple in the force broke the internet and the location points to northern Virginia. Want to know why? Read chapter 1 of Underground Empire. www.amazon.com/dp/125084055... www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/10...

What is happening in the transatlantic relationship? Check out Transatlantic Tremors latest edition: Zelenskyy in DC, a new EU Defense Readiness Roadmap and the IMF chiming in open.substack.com/pub/transatl...

> @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/china/...

Dutch intelligence suspends sharing arrangements with the US after concluding that high level intel was routinely being shared by the White House with their friends in the Kremlin. www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/n...

This story is extraordinary even by 2025 standards. Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, made a deal with Bukele and agreed to renege on informant agreements in a years-long DOJ investigation into MS-13, totally undercutting credibility of such agreements. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...