This is a more lucid and less sweary way of how I see it. Anyone assessing the situation based on the old paradigm is not keeping up. It is also not a given that the next democratic president will return to the rules-based model. Why would they, if they can enrich their clique?

How do you negotiate with a clique of thugs who do not share any of your norms but are only interested in domination and looting? @abenewman.bsky.social called this neo-royalism - which is probably the nicest thing you can call it. www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...

If you want a precise and sobering analysis of just what’s going wrong with global politics rn, this thread is it👇🏽👇🏽

Greenland is not about "spheres of influence," if we understand that term in the traditional great-power-competition-maximize-state-security sense. If we see the emerging order as composed of exceptional cliques seeking domination and extraction, it makes more sense. @abenewman.bsky.social

In a neo-royalist order, the family clique plays a key role in world politics. See Kushner at the table in the Ukraine peace negotiations. Or in Greece -- energy deals flow through Kimberly Guilfoyle. “America is back and drilling in the Ionian Sea” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/w...

I find the neo-royalism framing useful and I think @abenewman.bsky.social is probably right with this interpretation

A thought-provoking interpretation of what’s going on, in Venezuela and beyond.

Vox Newsletter: The theory that explains Trump's foreign policy "It’s a weird week to write a newsletter that explains the day’s news...Fortunately, I just came across a sharp (and only slightly esoteric) theory called “neo-royalism” that put it all in perspective". link.vox.com/view/664eafb...

Read the damn thread

We need new models of international relations to understand Trump and his administration - put simply, it's a Royal Court, with decisions made by an individual. Allies are transactional, who can face attack if it is seen to benefit the Court.

I’ve long held that it makes more sense to think of the Trump administration along the lines of a royal court and that you get more from eg reading Hilary Mantel’s books on Henry VIII’s court than IR books if you want to make sense of this all. @abenewman.bsky.social’s takes such a lens here.

WTF is the Trump regime doing? That is, how do we tie it all together? I dunno. But here's a plausible & coherent theory about the foreign policy side of things. A thread that's worth your time. 👇🏽

I re-posted this earlier today. Having now read the Goddard and Newman article, I am struck by its insight and recommend it enthusiastically and unreservedly. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

tepid finger wagging will lead to domination

This will help you make sense our our country’s non-sensical actions

Work by @abenewman.bsky.social & @segoddard.bsky.social : The rules-based order is being destroyed & one based on "neo-royalism" is being imposed (by Trump, Putin, Saudis, etc.). Not sure abt term "neo-royalism," but this is a great intro to this very useful model. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Neo-royalism sums up this time perfectly.

Not to be dramatic or anything but I think we are [insert your favourite word here]. Thread 👇

This aptly describes the oligarchy at work. Trump is not fighting for America. He is not fighting for you or for me. He is fighting to enrich himself and his "clique."

Fascinating thread

US seems to have no plan to deal w/ powerful Venezuelan security forces, who can threaten/thwart political leaders if they comply w/ US demands. Authoritarian politics 101 & major reason US approach could lead to military escalation and/or civil conflict. www.wsj.com/world/americ...

"In neo-royalist orders, hierarchy is the point. The purpose of neo-royalist orders is to develop rules that allow a small clique to maintain dominance in both material and symbolic goods. It thus rejects notions of sovereign equality and noninterference"

A great update on Abe's thread from yesterday. Is anyone convening a group to hash out Europe's position and strategy in this international order?

Very important thread on why Trump is targeting places like Venezuela. It makes no sense under a model of Trump as head of a nation-state, but makes complete sense under a model of "neo-royalism" where the primary driver is not national interest but interests of "elite cliques and sovereign rulers."

“Trump’s vision of absolute sovereignty, his reliance on a clique composed of family members…, fierce loyalists…, and elite hyper-capitalists …guides not only US foreign policy, but his ordering of international relations itself.”

Brilliant thread that names and explains the new world order that Trump seeks to create.

A thousand times this. Fantastic thread.

Good thread.

Productive to think through this thread

I think this is a great framework for understanding what Trump et al. want to do. It represents a thorough break with the previous international order. I’m not sure they can actually achieve it, though, especially if they are wildly unpopular domestically. Still, it’s food for thought.

Exactly. Neither Putin nor Trump are concerned with what “Russia” or the “US” might gain from a particular act of state. It's always about what their elite circles might gain from it. This is something that political analysis in the media has been struggling with for years.

🧵

When America First really means "neo-royalism." Thread below.

Def worth a read 👇

Incredibly useful thread to explain [gestures wildly].

Work w/ @segoddard.bsky.social on neo-royalism gets an Albie! Dan Drezner's pick of best work in political economy. "This paper deserves the highest compliment in my arsenal: I am furious that they wrote this — it is so goddamn good that I wish I had written it." open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...

This.

1/Leaders are abducted/allies are threatened but pundits and governments are scratching their heads on what the US is doing. Danish PM on Greenland "It makes absolutely no sense". Why? Because actors using old IR models when we need a new lens. Enter neo-royalism. abcnews.go.com/Internationa...

“This is not a world of sovereign equality or of balancing against China. It is about extraction.” @abenewman.bsky.social on how to understand Trump’s neo-royalist reign of cruelty, coercion, & rent-seeking gone wild—none of which will end well for America or the world.

Useful thread. Suggests need for a 'key assumptions check' in foreign/security policy analysis -- new models of understanding needed in this moment.

Oh well that makes it better! For more on how this will play out, see Underground Empire w/ @himself.bsky.social (a.co/d/3Hwo2A8). Weaponized interdependence meets neo-royalism. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/u...

Crucial thread to understand this moment: The dominance of elite interests who co-opt & exploit state power to hoard status, power, & wealth through the extraction of value from people and place. This is what we must fight.

This is an insightful analysis with explanatory power. The world seems mad to those who pride themselves on a rational understanding of orderly systems precisely because a neo-royalidt order privileges the interests, even nere whims of tiny elites.

It's wild that the PM of a NATO member feels compelled to put out a statement like this vis-à-vis the US government.

Ppl are underestimating Trump. An illegal act can nonetheless succeed. Venezuela is an enormous prize for the House of Trump. "much more to do with royal houses ambitions over resource grabs than anything close to alliance structures that we are used to in world politics." bsky.app/profile/aben...

K economies, K politics. Once the stock for "asset stripping" ran out on a local level, and the "free market" gets too tough due to international competition, you move in on your gullible allies like Europe. It's like Christmas and Easter at once. bsky.app/profile/blue...

This is a really tremendous piece of scholarship that clarifies our current situation in a way I haven’t seen before. Please read it.

Great thread. The Venezuelan invasion has "much more to do with royal houses ambitions over resource grabs than anything close to alliance structures that we are used to in world politics."

I read Goddard and Newman’s paper while also reading Wolf Hall, which strongly reinforced—and made tangible—their argument. You can’t unsee it.

There’s a line here whereby carving out techno-libertarian ‘zones’ in your jurisdiction (ala Honduras) becomes a viable territorial self-defence strategy against Trump’s global ambitions.