The #Hormuz blockage is keeping 20% of global oil supply off the global market: this amounts to an annual loss of up to 1,000 million tonnes of oil exports. @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/7gKy4VB

For a detailed analysis of what Orban’s departure means for Hungary and what the EU should do now, read this @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight www.cer.eu/insights/wha...

Magyar needs the EU but the EU needs Magyar, too. And in this mutual dependency, neither should lose sight of the rule of law. That's what I'm arguing in this @financialtimes.com op ed www.ft.com/content/8800...

Reposting my longer analysis on the Hungarian election outcome & implications for Europe from yesterday. Two key arguments: ◾Magyar has the mandate to rebuild democracy but it will not be a fast process – nor should it be ◾The EU shouldn't drop the ball. Monitoring is key www.cer.eu/insights/wha...

If the #Hormuz strait remains closed, European governments should avoid the huge fossil fuel subsidies they provided in 2022, argue @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social in their new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight. Read here: buff.ly/7gKy4VB

"Europe’s gas and electricity price rises have been modest so far, but we should not expect that to continue if the strait remains closed," @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social wrote for the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social think-tank. buff.ly/xTCbZmm

This is the paper to read on the implications of the Hormuz energy shock for the European economy - and how to cushion the blow most effectively. The core idea - to draw lessons from the flaws of the 2022-2023 response - is spot on. By my colleagues Elisabetta and John. www.cer.eu/insights/ene...

Excellent point by @bxlthor.bsky.social -- over the 2022-23 energy crisis, EU government's emergency measures cost them *three* times the current EU annual budget.

We really need to stress how expensive it is to keep bailing out fossil fuel users! - In 2022-23 EU governments spent €540 billion on emergency measures to lower energy bills – most of which were untargeted measures to lower prices. - Looks like we may be headed down a similar road again.

Europe's #gas and #electricity price rises have been modest so far, but we should not expect that to continue if the strait remains closed. #Hormuz New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/7gKy4VB

For the second time this decade, Europe is facing an energy crisis. Policy-makers should- -Encourage the public to reduce energy consumption -Accelerate Europe’s electrification -Provide targeted support to households Excellent piece by @elisabettaco.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social

It's *really* important that diplomacy to open the Strait of Hormuz succeeds. @elisabettaco.bsky.social and I think long-term closure of the strait would lead to an energy shock of a similar scale to 2022, but with weaker domestic demand www.cer.eu/insights/ene...

@johnspringford.bsky.social has more on the macroeconomics of this fossil fuel shock below 👇

Extremely important and timely piece by my colleagues @elisabettaco.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social .

In a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social find that if the Strait of #Hormuz remains closed, the energy crisis could be worse than it was in 2022. #energycrisis Read here: buff.ly/7gKy4VB

New insight from @johnspringford.bsky.social and me. Second fossil fuel crisis in 5 years, and again due to a war someone else started - a bitter déjà vu for Europe. Governments be drawing the right lessons from the 2022-23 crisis, and design policy support accordingly.

Really? No comment?

The failure of the #WTO 'reform ministerial' exposed just how hard meaningful reform has become. But it also revealed where the multilateral trade system may be heading next. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @antonspisak.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/ozfBGS1

Spread the word. I've had the privilege of working for @cergrant.bsky.social, @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social's founding director, for 13 years. After 28 years in charge, he will step down at the end of the year. It will take someone with outstanding qualities to replace him. Details on our website.

The Hungarian election is coming up, and there is some hope for the opposition party. What are the implications for the EU? My brilliant colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social has got you covered with everything you need to know 👇

Here are 10 consequences of the US-Israel attack on Iran - a thread. US soft power is damaged. To launch an attack without clear aims or an exit strategy has upset allies - in Europe, Gulf & Asia - who must bear the economic, political and military consequences. /1

The fossil fuel shock has asymmetric impacts across regions -- US/Canada much less affected as net exporters. China/Korea/Japan highly dependent on imported oil/gas, but less exposed than Europe. www.ft.com/content/9c17...

No better time for Europe to take electrification seriously - which is why I am excited to moderate a discussion on Europe's power as an electrostate with @adrianhiel.bsky.social, @tpellerincarlin.bsky.social, Paula Rey Garcia and Frauke Thies. Join us on March 18!

"The closure of Qatari LNG facilities and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are affecting a large chunk of global LNG supply," said @elisabettaco.bsky.social, assistant director at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

New piece on Chinese tech investment in Europe — fittingly out the day the Commission publishes the Industrial Accelerator Act, kicking off months of legislative wrangling. A look at the data and recent cases shows Europe has learned to block Chinese takeovers of tech & semiconductor assets. 1/

Europe remains one of the economies most exposed to volatility in global energy markets. The EU still depends on imported fossil fuels for close to 60% of its energy needs. Among large economies, only Japan and South Korea have higher levels of energy import dependence.

Conflict in the Middle East has sent gas prices surging across Europe and Asia. But the spike remains modest compared with 2022 when Putin's Ukraine invasion sent prices almost seven times higher. Read the full story on #FTEdit 👉 How serious is the Middle East gas price shock? ft.trib.al/K7RVfvL

I wrote a piece for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social to mark 4 years of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, on lessons European leaders shd learn & the priorities they shd act on. Maybe most important: Europe needs to be on the pitch, not in the stands: Ukraine’s security is our security.

A pleasure to speak to Victoria Vdovychenko of @camgeopolitics.bsky.social & Andy Hunder of AmCham Ukraine. One point that jumped out at me: the extent to which Putin has targeted US investments in Ukraine (factories etc). One might have thought that the US president would tell him to stop, but...🤷

"Even before Trump, the US refused to nominate judges to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism and that effectively rendered the WTO in many ways dysfunctional," @antonspisak.bsky.social tells @elisabettaco.bsky.social in the latest episode of the #CERpodcast. Full episode here: buff.ly/z30mXwQ

Applications are now open for the 13th Clara Marina O’Donnell fellowship, full details below. Start date: October 2026 for six months Pay: London Living Wage Applications in by: 09/04/26 @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social @brookings.edu @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social buff.ly/3vV64SZ

The world has changed since the 2016 #Brexit vote. In response, the UK & EU need to be more willing to change fundamental aspects of their post-Brexit relationship. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ KAS UK & Ireland policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/vQRCfrT

Thank you to @elisabettaco.bsky.social, Alexandr Hobza, @tpellerincarlin.bsky.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social for speaking at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ @bst-europe.bsky.social/ @delorsberlin.bsky.social event on 'Shaping the right policies for Europe's clean tech industry' in Brussels yesterday.

Welcome James!

So what the hell just happened? Two things: Ukraine will get 90 billion euros. And Orbán did not veto that even though he could have. How so? Short thread:

The European Council today is make-or-break for Ukraine’s financing. The bloc is racing to unlock a €210bn Ukraine reparations loan using frozen Russian assets.

D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding. As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece. This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable. 1/ www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...

Ukraine's security is Europe's security. Helping UA is not a burden for EU members, it's the necessary & urgent thing to do as they are protecting us by fighting Russia. Unbelievable that almost 4 years into full-blown conflict, consequences of European flip-flopping are not evident to EU leaders.

As some EU leaders lose sight of the big picture in Russia’s war of aggression, reminder of 2 of my pieces: this on consequences if Ukraine loses: www.cer.eu/publications... ; & this on what Europe must do to ensure it doesn't: www.cer.eu/publications.... Only change: funding UA is now more urgent.

@elisabettaco.bsky.social from the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social joins The Jolt @foresight-ce.bsky.social to discuss the new paper she's co-authored on Europe’s #cleantech sector. buff.ly/a9KoPG6

Great to talk to @kirataylor.bsky.social about our paper on the challenges for European clean tech: listen to our chat on the Foresight Jolt podcast (a must listen, always!): foresightmedia.com/story/srolvn...

News from the best EU economic policy collaboration in town with @bertelsmannst.bsky.social and @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. This time @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social and @ph-jaeg.bsky.social look into cleantech challenges and how to tackle them.

Europe’s clean tech industry is caught between US tariffs and Chinese overcapacity, and EU producers are in trouble. A new policy brief by @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @lucas-res-car.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social plots a path forward ➡️ bst-europe.eu/competitiven...

If the EU doesn‘t want to become a (high-carbon) industrial museum, the time to act is now.There‘s a lot of pressure from tariffs and Chinese production, but EU clean tech has every chance to survive and thrive through this if supported by the right policies. We also show that this varies by sector.

EU clean tech is under pressure: in the US, the phaseout of green subsidies dampens EU exports and Trump's tariffs re-direct trade, while Chinese over-capacities create very tough price competition. Our new policy brief shows how these drivers interact - and what the EU should do in response (1/4)

New Policy Brief! A joint publication of @bst-europe.bsky.social , @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social , and @delorsberlin.bsky.social. We analyze how recent shifts in US trade and industrial policy are changing the prospects for Europe’s clean tech industry, which is getting squeezed from two sides:

Very interesting walk-through of the impact of Trump on clean tech

Faced with China's distortions, US tariffs, and the IRA rollback, should the EU stay in the clean tech race or throw in the towel? A hugely important paper - with a lot of novel data - tackles that question. By Elisabetta, @imlucascarvalho.bsky.social @etiennehoera.d-64.social and Philipp Jäger

The Trump administration's industrial policy U-turn and aggressive trade policy are reshaping global clean tech markets. For EU manufacturers, it's a tale of two shocks: falling US demand + surging Chinese competition. Our new policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do 🧵

📅 JOIN US - 10/12/25: @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise discussion on 'Resilient Growth: Aligning Productivity and Security' with @aslak.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social, Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, Maive Rute & Yannick Treige Email: [email protected] for info and registration