The optimistic view is that a country that spent decades short of power has, in the space of three or four years, built one of the most solarised electricity systems in the developing world, funded overwhelmingly by private money ✏️ @janrosenow.bsky.social

The FT asked why Britain’s electricity prices risk staying high. I was quoted in today’s piece by Rachel Millard. The puzzle: wholesale prices are falling as gas loses its grip, but demand is down 15% in decade. Fixed grid costs spread over fewer kWh push up charges. www.ft.com/content/3d62...

German cities are tasked with planning their way out of fossil fuel heating. The first 223 plans reviewed show fossil fuels gone by 2045. District heating rises from 16% to 40%, heat pumps reach 38%, and heating demand falls by a third.

Renewables now account for just under half of all installed power capacity on the planet.

RECORD YEAR: 2025 was the biggest year ever for renewables. A record 692 GW was added, mostly solar. More importantly, non-fossil sources generated 43% of the world's electricity and fossil generation fell. More in Bright Spots: open.substack.com/pub/janrosen...

RECORD YEAR: 2025 was the biggest year ever for renewables. A record 692 GW was added, mostly solar. More importantly, non-fossil sources generated 43% of the world's electricity and fossil generation fell. More in Bright Spots: open.substack.com/pub/janrosen...

Incredible chart from @propublica.org. If you don’t follow enviro stuff closely, your instinct might be that the hold-your-nose solution (carbon capture from fossil fuels) would be the “pragmatic” one versus covering Earth in solar panels, which seems utopian. In fact it’s the opposite

Probably the best example of a rapid bottom-up energy transition: Pakistan imported more Chinese solar last year than any country on earth. No big subsidy, no rooftop scheme, no feed-in tariff. Solar is now around a quarter of electricity. More in my piece👇 www.thenewworld.co.uk/jan-rosenow-...

UK heat pumps have got a lot more efficient over time. Higher efficiency means lower running costs, lower peak demand, bigger carbon savings and less load on the energy system. Our study on this was picked up by pv magazine. Long read on Substack coming soon. Sign up: janrosenow.substack.com

The jaws of the energy transition are closing. In 2005 fossil fuels made two-thirds of the world's electricity. Today it's 57.4%, with clean power (renewables + nuclear) at 42.6%. Fossil share peaked around 2012 and keeps falling. More in Sunday's Substack: janrosenow.substack.com

NEW SURVEY: 3 in 4 EV owners across Europe feel protected from energy price shocks. Only 1 in 3 non-owners feel the same way. The same pattern shows up with heat pumps. 57% of owners believe households like theirs are better protected from price shocks. www.veriangroup.com/fr/news-and-...

Is hydrogen low carbon? It depends, far more than most assume. A new synthesis finds that counting the full lifecycle raises hydrogen’s emissions by ~250%. Best vs worst pathway? Up to 50x difference. Hydrogen’s climate benefits can’t be assumed. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Africa is becoming an EV growth story. The FT reports that the energy crisis has supercharged African demand for electric motorbikes and buses. Start-ups rolling out charging infrastructure are raising record sums. The transition isn’t just a Europe, US and China story anymore.

NEW RECORD: 692 GW of renewables were added globally in 2025, more than ever before. Asia built 74% of 2025's new capacity. But look at the growth rates: - Middle East +28.9% - Africa +15.9% (fastest year ever) More in next Substack, sign up here: janrosenow.substack.com

NEW RECORD: 692 GW of renewables were added globally in 2025, more than ever before. Asia built 74% of 2025's new capacity. But look at the growth rates: - Middle East +28.9% - Africa +15.9% (fastest year ever) More in next Substack, sign up here: janrosenow.substack.com

“Electrifying something usually cuts the energy it needs, often by a lot. A heat pump delivers three or four units of heat for every unit of electricity it draws. An electric car turns most of its energy into motion, where a petrol engine throws away 80% of it as heat before the wheels even turn.”

NEW SUBSTACK: Europe's best defence against the next energy crisis is the one nobody talks about. The EU pays 29% less for energy today than it would have without the efficiency gains made since 2000. Energy you don't consume can't be withheld or weaponised. open.substack.com/pub/janrosen...

Renewables now dominate new power capacity worldwide. In 2005 they were 28% of additions. They passed half in 2012. Since 2019, never below three quarters. Yes, this is capacity not generation. It shows what gets built. That’s the point. Data @irena-official.bsky.social

Electrofficiency: electric tech is far more efficient than the fossil tech it replaces. A heat pump, an EV, an induction hob, same job on a fraction of the energy. That’s why electrification taking centre stage at COP matters. Excellent piece in @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Half of the energy produced when burning fossil fuels is lost as heat! Knowing this lowers barriers against electrification and increases the scope of the possible. I don't know why more people (and more policymakers!) don't know this

We overestimate how hard the energy transition is because we diagnose it wrong. Electrifying doesn't just swap the fuel, it cuts how much energy you need beause combustion wastes so much as heat. I call it 'Electrofficiency'. More on @auroraenergy.bsky.social pod. youtube.com/watch?v=LaBOIbwqnnE

New @iea.org analysis on EU electrification answers a question people keep asking: is going electric actually cheaper today? For large share of demand, increasingly yes. Where a country's bar reaches into or above the 2025 price band, it's already cost-competitive. Hold-up is cost, grids and taxes.

Join us this evening for our Oxford Energy Seminar, showcasing key insights from this term’s series on The Future of Energy ⚡ A discussion with Vafa Järnefelt and myself, offering perspectives on the evolving energy landscape. Online and in person: www.energy.ox.ac.uk/events/event...

“Each time, the scramble fails to address the underlying vulnerability. That vulnerability has two faces: not only dependence on fossil fuel imports, but the structural energy waste that decades of relatively cheap fossil fuels allowed Europe to keep prolonging - a gap no shock [..] has yet closed.”

These numbers are stunning.

Good read...

“At any given energy price, Europe pays roughly 29% less than it would have without these gains. The protection holds regardless of whether the next supply shock comes from the Middle East, Russia, or anywhere else. Every percentage point of efficiency progress made now reduces future exposure…”

29%

Europe has already cut its energy bill by 29% but nobody talks about it. EU energy use in 2024: 854 Mtoe. Without efficiency gains since 2000 it would have been ~1,103 Mtoe. That's energy nobody had to generate, import or pay for. New policy brief out today 👇 www.janrosenow.com/uploads/4/7/...

The proposed COP31 target is 35% electricity in final consumption. Right now nobody’s there. Japan’s closest at 30.6%, the world’s at 21%, India trails at 19.1%. Ambitious target. Will the world be able to meet this? More here open.substack.com/pub/janrosen...

We are way off. The good news? Here in the EU we haven't really started trying yet. Just a few years ago we were waiting for Nord Stream 2 to open and talk was all about hydrogen. Now that we are focused on electrification we have a huge potential to accelerate.

“Is electrification happening fast enough?” @janrosenow.bsky.social No, and it’s not even close…especially when you factor in the fact that 2/3rds of fossil energy is wasted. Why are we so addicted to waste, inefficiency, and needless expense and damage? janrosenow.substack.com/p/is-electri...

Interesting reading in view of the upcoming EU Electrification Action Plan.

The proposed COP31 target is 35% electricity in final consumption. Right now nobody’s there. Japan’s closest at 30.6%, the world’s at 21%, India trails at 19.1%. Ambitious target. Will the world be able to meet this? More here open.substack.com/pub/janrosen...

JUST DROPPED: COP31 hosts want 35% of final energy from electricity by 2035, up from 21% today. But we're way off. Historical pace: 0.3 points/year. "35 by 35" needs 1.3 points/year. Right now, only China is moving fast enough. More here: janrosenow.substack.com/p/is-electri...

A fascinating write-up. An aside that jumped out at me: European electricity users face "a few minutes of outages per year" whereas US users face 2-11 _hours_ per year. One of the hidden economic variables that may explain why US quality of life relative to Europe's is overstated by income stats?

In better news

Geopolitical instability has made electrification more urgent for four in five business executives. This is what one of the biggest corporate polls since the Middle East energy crisis says. My Substack today is on the same topic. open.substack.com/pub/janrosen...

JUST DROPPED: COP31 hosts want 35% of final energy from electricity by 2035, up from 21% today. But we're way off. Historical pace: 0.3 points/year. "35 by 35" needs 1.3 points/year. Right now, only China is moving fast enough. More here: janrosenow.substack.com/p/is-electri...

HELP NEEDED. Electrification is swapping fuels for electricity. But it's a much deeper regime shift in how the whole system is organised, from inputs to storage to use. This stylised figure contrasts the two regimes, for a paper with Kingsmill Bond and Saul Griffith. What's missing? What works?

China went from ~11% electricity in 2000 to nearly 30% in 2024. Fastest in the Global South by far. Indonesia is the other big mover, up nearly 17 percentage points from a low base, while India added a bit over 8 points. More in Bright Spots: janrosenow.substack.com

"New Joule Order": The fact that the famously amoral Carlyle Group -aka The Ex-President's Club- is saying this about electrification is striking.

Electrification is purchase of optionality says Jeffrey Currie in his piece in FT on energy security. His framing: the "New Joule Order", an era where security drives energy investment. China prepared, with vast renewables & an EV fleet. Deep dive on electrification coming: janrosenow.substack.com

BIG NEWS: COP31's co-presidents proposed a 35% global electrification target this week - a first in history. But electricity meets just 21% of energy demand today. A huge gap, less than a decade to close it. Some are close. Norway's past it. Who moves? More on Sunday: janrosenow.substack.com

We all move Jan ;-) that's the beauty of a global target. What's the old adage, 'if you want to go fast, go alone; If you want to go far, go together.'

BIG NEWS: COP31's co-presidents proposed a 35% global electrification target this week - a first in history. But electricity meets just 21% of energy demand today. A huge gap, less than a decade to close it. Some are close. Norway's past it. Who moves? More on Sunday: janrosenow.substack.com

When ECI's @janrosenow.bsky.social talks about energy, even The Rest Is Politics is listening. ⬇️

Last week I met Alastair Campbell & Rory Stewart of The Rest Is Politics and we talked energy costs and renewables in public and in private. Glad to see my keynote feature in the latest episode (Alastair was in the audience) - it comes up around the 17-min mark. youtu.be/SJlpxfA5mBE?...

You won't believe how many of these I get every week. A fuelless system and dark matter.

LEAK: The Commission's "future-proof electricity bills" draft says electricity must be taxed no higher than gas. And it uses a clever workaround to get round the unanimity that has kept energy tax reform stuck for years. My take: janrosenow.substack.com/p/leak-the-european-commissions-grand