Just in: Peter Magyar says a deal with Ukraine on minority rights could be reached "as soon as this week", paving the way to lift the veto on Kyiv's accession. The IGC on the first cluster could take place on 15 June after the FAC meeting in Luxembourg. Things are definitely moving!

So looks like the rumored US "democracy promotion" funding may be indeed coming. Unclear how much but if the available ballpark is $1-200M that's not peanuts. CERV's expected civil society funding in the next MFF is ~€500M/year. (h/t @sophiepornschlegel.bsky.social) foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/01/s...

“I think this is crunch time on #enlargement. So what is realistic? We will see after the June European Council,” @milanninberlin.bsky.social told @zecsaky.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast, listen here:

I spoke to Milan Nic @milanninberlin.bsky.social about where things are going (but also, not going) on enlargement and how to make sense of the recent flurry of ideas on associate membership, veto rights, etc. It turned out to be a more optimistic conversation than I expected! Tune in below 👇

🇵🇱⚖️Polish rule of law crisis latest - in a letter to ECtHR wrt to the case of four limbo-judges, the Polish Constitutional Tribunal invents a novelty in international law - a retroactive reservation to the European Convention on Human Rights. Weird that we've never seen it for 30 years.

So after all the speculation, Hungary gets a political agreement on almost all of the suspended EU money. It's important that the money is *not* yet flowing. Let's look at the details & concrete promises in exchange 🧵 www.euractiv.com/news/eu-unlo...

Due to present myself tomorrow on “restoring the rule of law post backsliding” using EU/ECHR law. Conference programme available here: facdedroit.univ-lyon3.fr/colloque-int...

Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new joint paper, CFR's Brad Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/many

The phantom discussion about who should represent the EU in potential talks with Russia/Putin shows above all one thing - that the EU still has not solved the issue of external representation, more than 15years after the Lisbon Treaty.

Serious alarm bells running in German politics. It used to be argued that the AfD has a ceiling around 15-20%. Now, despite having become one of the most radical far-right parties in Europe, it is getting closer to 30%

The Journal of Democracy has been spun off from the National Endowment for Democracy to become an independent nonprofit now housed at Stanford www.journalofdemocracy.org/about/

Good proposal by Sweden, Austria, Estonia & co to strengthen rule of law conditionality in the next MFF. www.ft.com/content/80f3...

My least pro European opinion is that the Europarties are a disaster for European democracy because they encourage otherwise decent national parties to pretend that authoritarian crooks in other European countries are good pro European democrats to maximise their influence.

Art 7(2) TEU: European Council may determine existence of a serious and persistent breach by a Member State of Art 2 TEU value(s) Additional Art 7-like option now: Commission may ask Court to confirm existence of manifest and particularly serious breaches of Art 2 TEU value(s) by a Member State

The decision I was waiting for all last year: the ECJ finds, for the first time, a self-standing violation of Article 2. This is massive for EU law. curia.europa.eu/site/upload/...

A rare opportunity to lead a think tank! @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social are looking for a new DIRECTOR to lead the think tank! If you have EU and Europe expertise, a good network of contacts in Brussels and the EU + are familiar with the debates on UK-EU relations, apply here: bit.ly/4vvaQRv

Useful reminder from my colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social of how much is at stake for both Hungary & the EU, following Magyar's election victory.

Magyar needs the EU but the EU needs Magyar, too. And in this mutual dependency, neither should lose sight of the rule of law. That's what I'm arguing in this @financialtimes.com op ed www.ft.com/content/8800...

Apart from this, Magyar also thrashed the public broadcaster in a radio and a TV interview, recounting the lies they broadcasted and adding that "the factory of lies" would be closed, and waved at Orbán, reading on the terrace of his office, from the terrace of the office of the Head of State.

Reposting my longer analysis on the Hungarian election outcome & implications for Europe from yesterday. Two key arguments: ◾Magyar has the mandate to rebuild democracy but it will not be a fast process – nor should it be ◾The EU shouldn't drop the ball. Monitoring is key www.cer.eu/insights/wha...

We discuss Hungary's election outcome and what it means for the EU and for democracy going forward with the fantastic Zsuzsanna Szelenyi here www.cer.eu/media/cer-po...

The new Hungarian government is shaping up to be a constructive but critical partner, willing to co-operate with Brussels, but not unconditionally. 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 What should the EU do in response? Read @zecsaky.bsky.social's new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight here: buff.ly/xfjtSOf

The European Commission says the offer to send an inspection to Druzhba and pay for the repairs with EU funds "still stands". Zelenskyy says the pipeline will be repaired by the end of April. "Not completely, but enough to function," he said.

My @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social with excellent analysis of the implications of Peter Magyar's victory. Relations with the rest of the EU are likely to improve, but it won't all be plain sailing.

Here is a longer analysis from me on what Magyar's victory means for Hungary and Europe and what to expect going forward👇

Hungary is partying like it’s 2026 The man dancing is Zsolt Hegedus, slated to become Hungary’s health minister. He is dancing to a club remix of the resistance song “The Hanging Tree” from The Hunger Games: The Mocking Jay.” How fitting!

My thoughts in @theguardian.com about what Magyar's election means for Hungary, Europe and Ukraine With the great @nathalietocci.bsky.social and @zecsaky.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

I'm seeing some commentary on how the Hungarian election was lost by JD Vance/Donald Trump/MAGA's toxicity etc. But the fact is, the election was lost by Orban, who was Trump before Trump. His messages have run out of steam and the reality that Fidesz created and started believing in crumbled.

Hungary has chosen Europe. Europe has always chosen Hungary. A country reclaims its European path. The Union grows stronger.

What a wonderful moment to experience. I lived under Orbán 1, working at CEU… it was nothing compared to what was to come under Orbán 2. So many friends were impacted. Now, many years too late, it is finally the end of Orbán 2. Tomorrow we can talk about the challenges. Today we celebrate!

Ma este Európa szíve erősebben dobog Magyarországon. Europe’s heart is beating stronger in Hungary tonight.

Orbán concedes and focuses on Hungarians voting from neighboring countries (and supporting Fidesz overwhelmingly) as his team looks on shellshocked. The man on the far left, János Lázár (in a political sense actually far right) will be angling for the party. Mark my words.

What becomes of the Budapest hub of nationalist thinkers and institutions after Orbán’s downfall? Does it stay put and seek to incubate a Fidesz comeback? Decamp to Bratislava / Belgrade / Prague / Washington DC? Or disperse across the continent ahead of the major election years of 2027 and 2029?

Just like to say to those who don’t think there’s a European demos that the attention to Hungary - and the direct connection to Belgian interests - has been everywhere in press and radio today. The sport-focused tabloid just sent a push alert about it.

👀🗳️ When polls close in Hungary at 7pm, there won’t be proper exit polls. Instead, some reliable independent pollsters will release embargoed surveys conducted just days before the vote. Their results are in line with their previous, already published findings (no surprises).

Today in life under competitive authoritarianism 🇭🇺

Periodic reminder: this isn’t just an election. It’s either a popular uprising against Orbán or an authoritarian mobilization to keep him in power. (And it can absolutely be both.)

Turnout in Hungary is exceptionally high today. Here's what Fidesz vote shares looked like compared to the whole electorate, as opposed to valid votes. The 54% in 2022 was 37% of the eligible electorate. Should today's turnout really reach 75-80% the '22 vote would amount to 46-49% of the vote.

Some thoughts on the EU law issues arising from the Hungarian elections. First of all, my earlier blog post on the suspension of EU membership or expulsion from the EU 1/ eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2022/04/can-...

As Hungary votes, would recommend this piece about how Viktor Orban has used public money to bankroll an international ultraconservative network - including Roger Scruton cafes and €10k a month for failed Reform candidate Matt Goodwin democracyforsale.substack.com/p/orbans-brits

Reposting this thread for one last time. Early morning participation is already at record high, on track for a record turnout. Happy voting! 🇭🇺

There's some palpable shift, let's call it vibes, towards Tisza in the last few weeks in Hungary. I'm careful with vibes but defections like this add some scaffolding.

A very helpful primer from @garvanwalshe.org on Hungary's electoral system. 👇 Two additions: the majoritarian nature of the system can obsure opposition votes. Keep this in mind even in case of a Tisza supermajority -- Fidesz voters will still be there the day after.

My take on what the Hungarian election means for Hungary, the EU, Trump, and Putin on @pbsnews.org www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...

Hall of fame FT correction

Good survey with some important questions ahead of the vote. (At the risk of sounding flippant -- many Hungarians would choose not to support other Hungarians financially. So read the Ukraine numbers with that caveat.)

New ECFR polling reveals a stark divide in trust, institutions, and political leadership ahead of the election: https://bit.ly/4vlflhz #Hungary #Budapest #HungaryElections #HungarianElections #PublicOpinion #Polling #Orban #Magyar #Fidesz #Tisza

Let's look at a claim from the 2022 Hungary elections, that independent pollsters got it all wrong. It's not true. Everyone predicted a Fidesz win, with the exception of one pollster. But most were significantly off re Fidesz's lead, which ended up being >16pp en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...

With only three more days to go, reposting my Hungary elections thread here and the pieces I wrote in the run-up to the vote. 👇

Same here, decades of communist bloc conditioning that CEE are a bunch of small friends of Russia left Poles having a hard time internalising the fact that Poland is nowhere near "small".