Previewing Hungary’s upcoming elections: will Orbán be defeated? @zecsaky.bsky.social joins the #Eurofile to outline what election results could mean for Hungary and for Europe. Full conversation with @maxbergmann.bsky.social + @donatienneruy.bsky.social 👇 www.csis.org/podcasts/eur...

This is a terrific thread from Zselyke Chaky -- absolutely right about the steep hill Peter Magyar has to climb to win, let alone to be able to govern. That said, Political Capital's current projections have him winning 129 seats, when 133 are needed for a constitutional majority. Stay tuned.

An excellent thread on Hungary

Here are 10 consequences of the US-Israel attack on Iran - a thread. US soft power is damaged. To launch an attack without clear aims or an exit strategy has upset allies - in Europe, Gulf & Asia - who must bear the economic, political and military consequences. /1

🇵🇱⚖️Some comments of mine for Notes from Poland for what is, unfortunately, not an April Fool's piece - President Nawrocki awarded himself the power to decide who gets to sit on the Constitutional Tribunal and who doesn't. A couple tof houghts that didn't make it into the article: 1/

@242news.bsky.social has done a great podcast series on the Hungarian election over the last few weeks, with stellar guests such as @kimlanelaw.bsky.social, @zecsaky.bsky.social, András Pethö, Stefano Bottoni, and others. Give it a listen if you're interested. ⬇️

The Hungarian election is coming up, and there is some hope for the opposition party. What are the implications for the EU? My brilliant colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social has got you covered with everything you need to know 👇

@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social is looking for a new director. Please see the #job description and details on how to apply below buff.ly/6LT2jsf Deadline for applications 22/05/26

Two of the latest polls, from previously quite accurate pollsters, show a Tisza lead of ~20pp in Hungary. But can the opposition really win? Why is Orban on the backfoot? And what happens after April 12? 🇭🇺Hungary elections thread 🧵

This is a useful collection by @politico.eu on what to do with Hungary if Orban stays. But there is one major issue with the ideas listed: many of them are *not* possible without Hungary agreeing first www.politico.eu/article/5-wa...

🚨🚨 Grim news: Governments in five EU MS are “consistently and intentionally” eroding the #ruleoflaw, Europe’s leading civil liberties group has warned, while democratic standards are deteriorating in six more, including historically strong democracies. 🧵 www.theguardian.com/law/2026/mar...

The 🇭🇺 government is upping the ante in the final stretch of the campaign. Allegations in the last few days: ▪️FM Szijjarto reporting directly to 🇷🇺 from EUCO ▪️pro-govt journalists taking instructions from 🇷🇺 embassy ▪️🇭🇺 govt accusing @szabolcspanyi.bsky.social of espionage apnews.com/article/hung...

The EP just adopted the EU-US trade deal as expected. But the far right is really twisting itself into a pretzel here, basically saying, "We like what Trump is doing but also, we should stand up against Trump!" www.euractiv.com/news/meps-ba...

This is theoretically possible but two caveats: ◾Fidesz could install Orban and change the constitution but it'd be seen as massive escalation. ◾If Tisza wins big, Fidesz risks mass protests and worse. If the outcome is close, a smarter strategy is to undermine the new govt & force early elections.

This chart goes a long way in explaining why Orbán’s system is under real pressure for the first time. The growth that sustained it has stalled—and with it, the political bargain that kept voters on board. I tried to unpack what that means. 👉 brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/can-hungar...

Good reporting here on the criticism that VdL gets by @eddywax.bsky.social. I'm not one to favor a "move fast & break things" approach but when if not now? At least the Commission is trying to respond to this new reality www.euractiv.com/news/move-fa...

At @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social Brussels Conference, @tpellerincarlin.bsky.social says that Putin’s theory of victory in Ukraine is that France under the RN & Germany under AfD will betray Eastern Europe - & cheap Russian gas is part of the lure.

Black Cube is back, this time in Slovenia: www.euractiv.com/news/spy-sca...

When the far right enters government, it is associated with ideological moderation and thematic diversification, but these effects are short lived and largely confined to cases where the far right parties serves as a junior coalition partner journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

I had to look twice that this is not Orban. The timing is terrible too, right ahead of the EUCO & the discussion on the Ukraine loan.

Important paper from my colleague @armida.bsky.social on creating public buy-in for defense spending in Europe 👇

Some feasible ideas to work around Hungary on the €90B loan to Ukraine. The only miscalculation is that Orban will back down if he wins. He may temporarily but if there's one thing Brussels should have learned by now is that disruption is in Orban's foreign policy DNA www.politico.eu/article/euro...

A study of social media content 18-24-year olds see in #Finland, #France and #Romania shows that algorithms overwhelmingly feed them right-wing political content - whether or not the users are interested. Three country average for right wing content was 58% - in Finland, 67%! yle.fi/a/74-20214134

This one is probably hard to blame on ChatGPT.

As the IAA debate kicks into full gear, it’s important to highlight that Europe has learned to block Chinese acquisitions of strategic assets, but Chinese investments in Europe continue to pose economic security challenges. In @sandertordoir.bsky.social and my new insight, we find 👉 1/

🇮🇹⚖The Italian government seeks to hold a referendum on reforming the judiciary. What is at stake? Proponents say it's a technical reform that will address persistent issues with the organisation of Italian judges and prosecutors. Detractors point to a power grab. What's the deal here? 1/

Glad to be in this great @europeandemocracyhub.epd.eu report on new approaches to defending global civil society. I examine the growing phenomenon of exiled/relocated civic actors and offer ideas about how democracy promoters can support them better. europeandemocracyhub.epd.eu/new-approach...

Orban has reneged on his commitment. Hungary now blocks the EUR 90bn EU loan for Ukraine. The EU might be forced to go back to lending against Russias frozen assets. So I’m re-upping Paduano and my December piece on the ins and outs of this EU reparations loan. www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...

Outstanding piece. Contains well-evidenced key takeaways: "Democratic survival ... is determined in large part by how obvious the threat to democracy is. The more people recognize that an elected leader is trying to destroy democracy from within, the less likely it is that said leader will succeed"

Hungary's most trusted pollster, Median, came out with polling showing a massive lead for the opposition this morning. But why is Orban's power suddenly under threat? I've tried to answer this question for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/h...

I found that this is wrong. Democracy actually is a powerful motivating force for a critical slice of the population *if they perceive a real threat*. I call this the "legibility" theory of democratic backsliding: the more legible the threat, the more likely it is to prompt effective pushback.

I wrote a piece for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social to mark 4 years of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, on lessons European leaders shd learn & the priorities they shd act on. Maybe most important: Europe needs to be on the pitch, not in the stands: Ukraine’s security is our security.

1/ “EU membership without veto rights is acceptable for Serbia. The most important aspects for us are the single market, as well as the free movement of goods, people and capital. These are the key values we wish to realise through EU membership,” Aleksandar Vučić, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. ⬇️

This seems to be an emerging issue but will other member states follow Warsaw? Here's a detailed report on risks associated with Chinese intelligent and connected vehicles from the OSW www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

On The World 🌎 today: @joshuacoe.bsky.social: Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on fighting from abroad @orlabarry.bsky.social: The future of Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule is uncertain 🌐 Russia's opposition movement still exists — but it's 'rudderless' Tune in 📻 bit.ly/3xyRRfD

The EPP has a long tradition of shielding its own against EU scrutiny on the rule of law. It long protected Orbán when Fidesz was still member of the EPP, and now it is blocking rule of law fact finding missions to Meloni‘s Italy, who has become an important EPP ally.

Dennik N investing in EUObserver is your rare good news about media sustainability. Dennik has been an outlier, bucking the trend of closures & falling readership in Slovakia (and frankly, globally) euobserver.com/203123/euobs...

As EU politics looks more and more nervously at the elections in 2027, expect a very packed decision-making agenda in the second half of 2026, with this just one of many examples:

"if you face things that threaten the stability of your country, I know that President Trump would be very interested" is an interesting thing to read weeks ahead of elections for which Orban is trailing behind badly.

Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar has declared that, if he wins April's elections, his government would immediately extradite former Polish justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who was recently granted asylum in Hungary, back to Poland, where he is wanted on criminal charges.

Looks like this reporting is about releasing the first tranche of SAFE. But if Hungary does receive the €2.4B, that'd directly contradict what Commissioner Serafin said two weeks ago, that SAFE is subject to conditionality audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/media/video/...

Cuts to overseas aid by the UK are set to go further and faster than those made by the Trump administration in the US, as Sir Keir Starmer’s government wrestles with funding pressures www.ft.com/content/ad52...

De Visegrádgroep, een alliantie van Polen, Hongarije, Tsjechië en Slowakije, bestaat vandaag 35 jaar. De Russische aanval op Oekraïne heeft het verbond in tweeën gesplist. www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/... in @nrc.nl Dank aan @zecsaky.bsky.social en @ivovdw.bsky.social

So this is exactly what many of us were watching (and frankly, were a bit surprised it didn't happen earlier). The details are fuzzy but this would show a much more strategic foreign policy reorientation in the US and really start putting that National Security Strategy into practice.

The idea to unblock the Single Market deepening agenda with a multi-speed approach a.k.a. Enhanced Cooperation seems extremely weird to me both in principle and politically especially if the goal is "One Market". Here is why:

Dear friends on Bluesky, it's been an overwhelming week since the mass layoff at the Post. I'll be continuing the work and would be so grateful if you sign up here to keep up with my future journalism. docs.google.com/forms/d/1dlh...