EU Leaders meet tomorrow to discuss measures to lift Europe's anaemic growth rate. But the summit risks turning into a nothing burger. EU Leaders have cherry-picked a macroeconomically meaningless simplification agenda from the Draghi report New oped. 1/ www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Trump hasn’t been the boon to Orban that many expected,” says @zecsaky.bsky.social of @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social on the @242news.bsky.social podcast. buff.ly/fSOoABM

Trump hasn’t exactly delivered for Hungary. It's a different question whether he will deliver for Orban though.

An overlooked but important institutional change - @kajakallas.bsky.social is now reguarly calling de facto Defence Councils with the national defence ministers. From its past, the EU does not have a normal Defence Council, as Foreign Ministers used to steer the Common Security and Defence policy.

With Hungary’s elections only 2 months away, let’s look at what the opposition promises when it comes to the EU, rule of law & Hungary’s alliances. Media coverage highlighted euro adoption and independence from RU energy by 2035 but there's much more in the program www.reuters.com/business/hun...

Likewise, I really enjoyed the conversation. Thanks so much for having me on, @pbergsen.bsky.social and Tim!

Enjoyed discussing the European implications of the Hungarian election with @zecsaky.bsky.social and her explaining to me why in several cases I don't quite get it twentyfourtwo.substack.com/p/trump-hasn...

Ah, it’s not the Member States who have spent the last few decades blocking all meaningful progress on a range of reforms who need to get serious, but the Commission, which doesn’t even have a vote on these issues. Right.

🔊New Podcast out! “Trump hasn't been the boon to Orbán that many expected” @zecsaky.bsky.social from @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social on the European impact of Hungary's election on the Twenty-Four Two podcast with @pbergsen.bsky.social and Tim G. Jones. twentyfourtwo.substack.com/p/trump-hasn...

This seems a classic example of not understanding that newspapers - either physical paper or online sub - are a bundled product. Losing sports-movtivated readers will cut views for other parts of the Post. A mistake made at The Telegraph, Gazeta Wyborcza and the British railways under Beeching.

🇭🇺⚖️ Our court case against X attracted the most predictable attention possible - of the Hungarian Sovereignty Protection Office, the institution of Hungarian authorities entrusted with "defending Hungarian state", but if you ask me, it's actually about going after NGOs critical of Orban. 1/

Your helpful reminder from Jakub on why democratic restoration is such a can of worms.

The stakes of the election could not be higher: if Orbán wins, #Hungary will continue its slide into autocracy domestically and will keep blocking joint action at the EU level. 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/MtJXrKQ

🇸🇰⚖️ Eight years will pass in February since the contract killing of journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová in Slovakia. The trial of the main actors in the case – Marian Kočner and his former informant Alena Zsuzsová – will begin again, for the third time. 1/

Great to see @nateschenkkan.bsky.social presenting our report “Perpetrators & methods of transnational repression and possible counter strategies” (co-authored w/ @emiledirks.bsky.social @zecsaky.bsky.social & me) in the @afet.europarl.europa.eu Full report: www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en...

#Hungary’s elections matter for the EU as a whole. But the opposition’s path is fraught with obstacles, from a lopsided electoral system to the extraordinary difficulty of restoring democracy even if they win. 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 New insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/MtJXrKQ

It was a privilege contributing to this report on transnational repression in the EU. I learned a great deal working with @nateschenkkan.bsky.social, @zecsaky.bsky.social, & @alexdukalskis.bsky.social. A special thank you to the victims of TNR who shared their experiences & expertise with us.

Welcome to the CER, @james-r-green.bsky.social! Definitely a great time to analyze developments related to tech, innovation, and economic policy.

New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/MtJXrKQ

Whatever the outcome, the EU will have a pivotal role to play after #Hungary’s elections. If the opposition wins, it can serve as an anchor and hold the new government to account. But if #Orbán stays, Brussels will need to face Hungary’s disruptive behaviour head-on. 🇭🇺 🇪🇺

ICYMI, earlier this week I wrote a primer ahead of the Hungarian elections, attempting to answer the question on everyone's minds: can the opposition win and restore democracy www.cer.eu/insights/can...

Hard agree on this and the rest of the thread. Just as with the international order, we need a mindset shift because there is simply no going back to where we were before.

🚨 New report alert! 🚨 Our new study for the European Parliament on transnational repression in the EU is live! Co-authored with @zecsaky.bsky.social, @emiledirks.bsky.social, and @alexdukalskis.bsky.social: a great team to work with.

After 15 years, Viktor Orbán faces his strongest challenger yet. But can the opposition win in Hungary’s heavily biased electoral system? And if they do, can they restore democracy? 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/MtJXrKQ

🇪🇺🇩🇪⚖️It took us a moment or two, but our flagship rule of law programme is here on the Skies of Blue - follow us for updates, news and the very soon incoming call for the next cohort re:constitution fellows!

Here is a Hungary🇭🇺 election primer, trying to answer the questions on everyone's minds 👇

Here is a Hungary🇭🇺 election primer, trying to answer the questions on everyone's minds 👇

Here is only at first paradoxical reaction I believe we will see more of - AfD member of the Bundestag Kay Gottschalk argues the US tariffs over Greendland call for more European sovereignty, a European military alliance, a German nuke and ends his video with the slogan "Long live Europe".

As expected, Hungary's MOL will be buying Gazprom's stake in Serbia's NIS oil refinery. Agreement reached just a few days before the OFAC extension expires www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The CJEU recently ruled that Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal no longer qualifies as a court under EU law. This is one of the EU’s most decisive legal responses to the capture of Poland’s judiciary under the PiS. Our @jakubjaraczewski.bsky.social and @profpech.bsky.social unpack the ruling 👇

💥 Brussels is drafting proposals to create a two-tier EU membership model that could fast-track Ukraine’s entry in any peace deal to end Russia’s invasion - a move that would overhaul the EU's accession system used since the cold war as.ft.com/r/a5f67afd-e...

Apologies for being self-referential but

The tripwire force is finally here... But instead of being in Ukraine to deter Russia, it is within NATO territory to deter one NATO ally from violating another NATO ally's sovereignty. The world turned upside down.

With Le Pen's appeal underway, reposting two earlier pieces on election bans. We can surely expect the debate to heat up again but we shouldn't forget that her ban had nothing to do with her political views. www.cer.eu/insights/fra...

I’m now following the Federal Reserve, like we followed epidemiologists during the pandemic. That’s not good. But Powell’s defiance is 🧵

Always look forward to reading these monthly analyses from @nvondarza.bsky.social. And this one underscores that a slow shift towards the far right is not just vibes, it's an emerging trend in EU policymaking:

People seem surprised that the multi polar world they've lusted after is as peaceful as they were told it would not be. Odd.

If you aren't fed up to the back teeth with 2025, you can listen to what @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social researchers thought were its key themes. And if you just want to see the back of this year, you can hear our thoughts on what's coming up next.

Using enhanced cooperation is very significant from an institutional perspective. Now for the future, the question is if this is the rump Visegrad we can expect to see more? A lot will depend on the outcome of the Hungarian election.

On balance, a good outcome. - Ukraine financed for next two years so not ‘forced’ to accept a bad deal. - we avoid trap of ‘bridging solutions’ and combining purely nations contributions. - EU foreign policy gets stronger by normalising use of QMV and enhanced cooperation

I've told this story before, but a year ago I was at a closed-door meeting with various governments reps at a meaningful level, and when social media regulation came up, one of the non-US government reps basically said: "but we're powerless"

Just what you need as the discussions unfold today.👇

If this fails, there is no immediate plan B, write Stephen Paduano & @sandertordoir.bsky.social in a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight. Read here: buff.ly/GM6RkHv

The European Council today is make-or-break for Ukraine’s financing. The bloc is racing to unlock a €210bn Ukraine reparations loan using frozen Russian assets.

🇪🇺⚖️🇵🇱 Revenge is a dish best served cold (and after five years). Moments ago, CJEU, in the case Commission v. Poland, found that the Polish Constitutional Tribunal has not only violated EU law with its anti-EU rulings, but also was (is) not an independent court established properly by law. 1/

"Liberating its historic lands": as the Trump administration pretends peace is around the corner, Putin reminds us that for him, this war is about re-establishing the Russian empire. Ukrainians showed in 1991, when the whole country voted for independence, that they don't see themselves as Russian.

The European Parliament just voted to phase out Russian gas: 500 in favor, 120 against, 32 abstentions. The EU will end all pipeline gas and LNG imports from #Russia by Sep 30, 2027. #Hungary and #Slovakia will likely challenge the decision in court (but their attempts will likely fail).

And so with a wimper, the EU scraps the ban on internal-combustion engines from 2035. The new rules are an incomprehensible fudge that only lobbyists will understand. Saying "the climate matters, here is something tangible we are doing about it" was a big deal. Whatever this is, it's a little sad.