🇵🇱⚖️Polish rule of law crisis latest: Ziobro might be good at evading justice, but some people weren't as lucky, and now we have a black bar on the eyes of two guys who ran a state-owned fund to promote Poland abroad by, among others ... planting billboards about how Polish judges are bad. 1/

Behold, the State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Rights, and Labor has been turned into a far-right funding spigot simpler.grants.gov/opportunity/...

One year after the dismantling of the USAID funding, what does the democracy support landscape look like? Several new initiatives have emerged in some regions, but whether these will evolve into concrete forms of “post-US” democracy support remains unclear. A must-read on @carnegieendowment.org ⤵️

Rather humbling. Handelsblatt: "A key factor in the Chancellor's change of course was, among other things, a research paper by economists Sander Tordoir and Brad Setser" Pleased Brad and I could contribute to Chancellor Merz's thinking on China Shock 2.0 with analysis and a few policy ideas. 1/

We've updated and significantly improved upon the Barnier staircase to outline what the future might hold 7/11

The problem here is that France wants a strong common EU foreign policy "strategic autonomy" AND total national control of foreign policy. The only way to make EU foreign policy strong and coherent is for states to give up control. Europe needs to make the trade: sovereignty for power.

For years, discussions about Hungary focused on democratic backsliding, including the shrinking space for independent civil society. But what should happen now, in this hopeful period of profound political and legal changes? How can civic space be rebuilt and not overlooked? On @verfassungsblog.de

🇭🇺⚖️ @verfassungsblog.de is running a symposium on the rule of law restoration in Hungary, and everyone's favourite ECtHR dork, Dr Marcin Szwed, has a piece there about when, if and how you can remove judges from their positions as part of reform. Probably interesting for 🇺🇸 readers, too.

PERSONAL NEWS: I've joined the @newyorker.com full-time as a global-affairs columnist, where I'll be writing a weekly essay on the world. It's a dream gig and I'm still pinching myself that I get to say all these incredible, talented journalists I've long admired are my colleagues!

I learned a lot about what is happening with enlargement from this brilliant podcast, by @milanninberlin.bsky.social and @zecsaky.bsky.social. They are not as pessimistic as I am about the prospects of EU enlargement.

Europe needs to rapidly improve its deterrence. A new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social / Hanns Seidel Foundation paper by @armida.bsky.social outlines key steps European governments can take in the next 1-2 years to accelerate rearmament, readiness and deterrence efforts. Read here: buff.ly/rwfLU1S

Ideology for the masses, money for the elites.

There was a Fidesz ideologue who once said, "What you call corruption is the essence of the system." Seems he was right but we're just learning by how much. The Integrity Authority estimates Orban's rule cost Hungary €160B(!) in corruption. That equals ~2/3 of 🇭🇺 GDP. www.ft.com/content/0c44...

In May 2026, votes in the EP resembled those of times past: with majorities based on the cooperation of EPP, S&D and Renew, no votes decided by the far right, and a fine example of a very broad supermajority. By NICOLAI VON ONDARZA #EUanalytics

This Wednesday I will join #DemocracyDrinks of @defenddemocracy.eurosky.social in Brussels. All welcome!

“I think this is crunch time on enlargement. So what is realistic? We will see after the June European Council,” @milanninberlin.bsky.social told @zecsaky.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast, listen here: buff.ly/TBagUtJ

My next public event is in Brussels at @defenddemocracy.eurosky.social — all welcome!

Finally…! www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pre...

The Hungarian prosecutor just dropped the case against the organiser of Pécs Pride arguing that organising Prides is not crime, referring to the EU Court of Justice judgement on HU’s anti LGBTIQ-law. A very encouraging step in the restoration of the rule of law and fundamental rights in Hungary!

This is an important point & why Hungary’s democratic restoration *may* be easier than that of Poland. When institutions behave as they should, there is less of a need for complete overhaul — the problem is not structural. It’s early days though and clearly doesn’t apply to all institutions.

With Hungary lifting its veto on accession for Ukraine (and Moldova) and the Western Balkans Summit coming tomorrow, @milanninberlin.bsky.social was indeed correct that it's crunch time for enlargement. Listen to our latest podcast below 👇 www.ft.com/content/c78f...

Just in: Peter Magyar says a deal with Ukraine on minority rights could be reached "as soon as this week", paving the way to lift the veto on Kyiv's accession. The IGC on the first cluster could take place on 15 June after the FAC meeting in Luxembourg. Things are definitely moving!

So looks like the rumored US "democracy promotion" funding may be indeed coming. Unclear how much but if the available ballpark is $1-200M that's not peanuts. CERV's expected civil society funding in the next MFF is ~€500M/year. (h/t @sophiepornschlegel.bsky.social) foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/01/s...

“I think this is crunch time on #enlargement. So what is realistic? We will see after the June European Council,” @milanninberlin.bsky.social told @zecsaky.bsky.social in the latest #CERpodcast, listen here:

I spoke to Milan Nic @milanninberlin.bsky.social about where things are going (but also, not going) on enlargement and how to make sense of the recent flurry of ideas on associate membership, veto rights, etc. It turned out to be a more optimistic conversation than I expected! Tune in below 👇

🇵🇱⚖️Polish rule of law crisis latest - in a letter to ECtHR wrt to the case of four limbo-judges, the Polish Constitutional Tribunal invents a novelty in international law - a retroactive reservation to the European Convention on Human Rights. Weird that we've never seen it for 30 years.

So after all the speculation, Hungary gets a political agreement on almost all of the suspended EU money. It's important that the money is *not* yet flowing. Let's look at the details & concrete promises in exchange 🧵 www.euractiv.com/news/eu-unlo...

Due to present myself tomorrow on “restoring the rule of law post backsliding” using EU/ECHR law. Conference programme available here: facdedroit.univ-lyon3.fr/colloque-int...

Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new joint paper, CFR's Brad Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/many

The phantom discussion about who should represent the EU in potential talks with Russia/Putin shows above all one thing - that the EU still has not solved the issue of external representation, more than 15years after the Lisbon Treaty.

Serious alarm bells running in German politics. It used to be argued that the AfD has a ceiling around 15-20%. Now, despite having become one of the most radical far-right parties in Europe, it is getting closer to 30%

The Journal of Democracy has been spun off from the National Endowment for Democracy to become an independent nonprofit now housed at Stanford www.journalofdemocracy.org/about/

Good proposal by Sweden, Austria, Estonia & co to strengthen rule of law conditionality in the next MFF. www.ft.com/content/80f3...

My least pro European opinion is that the Europarties are a disaster for European democracy because they encourage otherwise decent national parties to pretend that authoritarian crooks in other European countries are good pro European democrats to maximise their influence.

Art 7(2) TEU: European Council may determine existence of a serious and persistent breach by a Member State of Art 2 TEU value(s) Additional Art 7-like option now: Commission may ask Court to confirm existence of manifest and particularly serious breaches of Art 2 TEU value(s) by a Member State

The decision I was waiting for all last year: the ECJ finds, for the first time, a self-standing violation of Article 2. This is massive for EU law. curia.europa.eu/site/upload/...

A rare opportunity to lead a think tank! @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social are looking for a new DIRECTOR to lead the think tank! If you have EU and Europe expertise, a good network of contacts in Brussels and the EU + are familiar with the debates on UK-EU relations, apply here: bit.ly/4vvaQRv

Useful reminder from my colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social of how much is at stake for both Hungary & the EU, following Magyar's election victory.

Magyar needs the EU but the EU needs Magyar, too. And in this mutual dependency, neither should lose sight of the rule of law. That's what I'm arguing in this @financialtimes.com op ed www.ft.com/content/8800...

Apart from this, Magyar also thrashed the public broadcaster in a radio and a TV interview, recounting the lies they broadcasted and adding that "the factory of lies" would be closed, and waved at Orbán, reading on the terrace of his office, from the terrace of the office of the Head of State.

Reposting my longer analysis on the Hungarian election outcome & implications for Europe from yesterday. Two key arguments: ◾Magyar has the mandate to rebuild democracy but it will not be a fast process – nor should it be ◾The EU shouldn't drop the ball. Monitoring is key www.cer.eu/insights/wha...

We discuss Hungary's election outcome and what it means for the EU and for democracy going forward with the fantastic Zsuzsanna Szelenyi here www.cer.eu/media/cer-po...

The new Hungarian government is shaping up to be a constructive but critical partner, willing to co-operate with Brussels, but not unconditionally. 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 What should the EU do in response? Read @zecsaky.bsky.social's new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight here: buff.ly/xfjtSOf

The European Commission says the offer to send an inspection to Druzhba and pay for the repairs with EU funds "still stands". Zelenskyy says the pipeline will be repaired by the end of April. "Not completely, but enough to function," he said.

My @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social with excellent analysis of the implications of Peter Magyar's victory. Relations with the rest of the EU are likely to improve, but it won't all be plain sailing.

Here is a longer analysis from me on what Magyar's victory means for Hungary and Europe and what to expect going forward👇

Hungary is partying like it’s 2026 The man dancing is Zsolt Hegedus, slated to become Hungary’s health minister. He is dancing to a club remix of the resistance song “The Hanging Tree” from The Hunger Games: The Mocking Jay.” How fitting!

My thoughts in @theguardian.com about what Magyar's election means for Hungary, Europe and Ukraine With the great @nathalietocci.bsky.social and @zecsaky.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

I'm seeing some commentary on how the Hungarian election was lost by JD Vance/Donald Trump/MAGA's toxicity etc. But the fact is, the election was lost by Orban, who was Trump before Trump. His messages have run out of steam and the reality that Fidesz created and started believing in crumbled.

Hungary has chosen Europe. Europe has always chosen Hungary. A country reclaims its European path. The Union grows stronger.