‼️🇪🇺🇺🇦 All eyes are on Trump's second state visit to the UK, yet a far more important development is unfolding in Brussels, where senior EU officials are closing in on a plan to use the roughly €200 billion in frozen Russian assets in Euroclear to support Ukraine

‼️🇪🇺🇺🇦 All eyes are on Trump's second state visit to the UK, yet a far more important development is unfolding in Brussels, where senior EU officials are closing in on a plan to use the roughly €200 billion in frozen Russian assets in Euroclear to support Ukraine

I've written to Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, urging them to join me in condemning Elon Musk's dangerous remarks inciting violence yesterday. As leaders, we must stand together and make clear Musk will face serious consequences for these actions.

🇫🇷‼️ Sebastien Lecornu, the new French PM, is a confidante of President Macron, a centre right politician from Normandy who joined Macron in 2017 and has been in every government since then.

‼️🇫🇷 The French PM Francois Bayrou lost a parliamentary confidence vote by a landslide tonight - 364 to 194. 16 members of his own coalition voted against him or abstained

Couldnt make this stuff up www.ft.com/content/064f...

A flurry of opinion polls makes bleak reading for President Emmanuel Macron before the almost certain removal of his fourth Prime Minister in 21 months next Monday. Macron’s approval rate fell to a new low of 15% in one survey today 1/ www.lefigaro.fr/politique/so...

Exceptional piece by the exceptional @sylviekauffmann.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/8a14...

“Several leading executives who publicly supported Labour in the run-up to the July 4 poll said they were “horrified” by its record in office so far, criticising “poor political decisions” and a “lack of ability”.“ www.ft.com/content/b103...

‼️🇫🇷 The embattled French PM François Bayrou stunned his political opponents this afternoon by calling a vote of confidence in his own Govt in 2 weeks’ time, challenging Left & Far Right to take responsibility for plunging France into a deep budgetary crisis if they topple him 1/

‼️🇫🇷 The embattled French PM François Bayrou stunned his political opponents this afternoon by calling a vote of confidence in his own Govt in 2 weeks’ time, challenging Left & Far Right to take responsibility for plunging France into a deep budgetary crisis if they topple him 1/

The lengths I'd go to make you focus on the front page of the Sunday papers so you didn't notice the football pages.... (now with the link done right. Cos I'm a tech bro) observer.co.uk/news/opinion...

Is the dial about to shift?

Predictability for our companies & consumers. Stability in the largest trading partnership in the world. And security for European jobs & economic growth in the long-term. This EU-US trade deal delivers for our citizens & companies, and strengthens transatlantic relations. europa.eu/!tqNkQR

An EU diplomat described Russia’s insistence on involving China [in Ukraine's security guarantees], which is allied with Moscow, as a “WTF moment”. www.ft.com/content/3851...

Janan Ganesh in the FT -excellent as usual “Trump’s ambiguity is the worst of all worlds. He supports Europe enough to make it complacent but not enough to make it safe.”

Worth watching Trump-VdL relationship. Trump was v warm to her & gave her floor quickly yest. VdL was also clever in focusing on abducted Ukrainian children, adding a human dimension to the disc & exposing cynicism of Putin. Many EU leader’s thanked VdL today for emphasising this

Having had more chats with senior officials today, yesterday was a good day for Europe & Ukraine. Unprecedented level of co-ordination between them; movement on US guarantees, though much work remains; less space for Putin to stall; more work on EU (19th package) and possible US sanctions if he does

Understand that Zelensky was quite effective yesterday at getting his point across to Trump that any discussion on territory would start from de facto facts on the ground rather than the aspirational aims of Putin. And that any decision on territory cd only be taken by Zelensky with Ze in the room

Understand 2 principles were agreed by EU and US yesterday re SG 1/ 🇺🇦 needs to be allowed to be strong in its own right & sovereign - no restrictions on its capability to defend itself (arms it can purchase, support it can get, its mil industry) & 2/ CoW element incl an “unspecified” US presence

Hearing whispers that the poss bilateral Russia/Ukraine Putin-Zelensky meeting may take place in.. Budapest 🥶

In Feb there was a question about whether Europe “would have a seat at the table.” Yesterday's meets show that Europe actually has many seats at the table. That fundamentally changes the nature of this negotiation. A credit to European leaders for cracking the code that works with Trump

My takeaway: European leaders have understood the Trump playbook, and are playing it well

My takeaway: European leaders have understood the Trump playbook, and are playing it well

‼️ "Ukraine will promise to buy $100bn of American weapons financed by Europe as part of a deal to obtain US guarantees for its security after a peace settlement with Russia, according to a document seen by the Financial Times."

Interesting that Macron upped the ante in his public remarks in the WH before the meeting entered its private phase. He said the next meeting should be "quadrilateral" ie include the Europeans as well as Trump, Zelensky and Putin. He also backed Merz in insisting on a ceasefire

Asked if peace could involve US troops on the ground in Ukraine, Trump said: “We’ll let you know that maybe later today. Seven great leaders of great countries also, and we’ll be talking about that, they’ll all be involved .. there’ll be a lot of help when it comes to security”

Understand the A5-light proposition has been a Giorgia Meloni idea for several months—she may deserve credit for planting the idea in Trump’s mind. She's a key voice with influence in DC. But what does she mean by it?

European position on a ceasefire clearly in flux. This from No10: Asked if Starmer wants a ceasefire back on the table after Trump dropped his calls for one in Alaska, Starmer's official spokesman said: "We've always said we want to see a sustainable and just peace for Ukraine."

Terrible news ahead of today's meeting. Politically, a landmark moment: The end of pax americana. The message: if you just take, it‘s yours www.reuters.com/business/aer...

European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today 1/ to pin down more details on poss US security guarantees; 2/ work on preparations for the poss trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3/ push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps” 1/4

A senior French source has described tomorrow’s DC meeting to me as the “most consequential for peace and security in Europe” since the fall of the Soviet Union. Brief thread later.

Senior UK and European officials are very nervous that Trump is issuing rather vague US commitments to guaranteeing Ukraine’s security to try to browbeat Zelensky into giving in to Putin’s demands - including Ukrainian land still held by Ukraine 1/2

And I was hoping for a quiet return to work after 2 weeks of holiday. Now busy with lots of analysis ahead of what is going to be a critical meeting for Europe and Ukraine in DC tomorrow www.ft.com/content/eb93...

“Zelenskyy must not be cornered or bullied,” said one UK official. “Europe will not be rolled over. We genuinely welcome President Trump’s efforts but he misjudged with the overfamiliarity and accommodation of Putin.” www.ft.com/content/eb93...

As senior EU officials have been telling me since Trump was re-elected, it's more the politics than the policies of this Administration the Europeans need to be concerned about

This. Vance wasn’t here for a holiday.

Important

Excellent piece by @gideonrachman.bsky.social on the outcomes that flow from the Alaska summit. His analysis of Europe's goals and next steps is spot on www.ft.com/content/2e83...

Vg piece "For Zelenskyy, it is the biggest diplomatic challenge of his six years in office. He will be stuck outside the Alaskan room where decisions on Ukraine’s fate could be made by the man who invaded his country and the man once impeached over dealings with it." www.ft.com/content/6f40...

UK economy grew 1% in first half of 2025 US economy grew 0.6% I present these figures without comment

“The two concerns Trump had about Europe is that they were free riding on the US security umbrella and their trade was unbalanced, with their market a fortress,” says our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social. “On both, Trump has implemented a shakedown.”

While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy. My rant in the @financialtimes.com

A trade conflict would have further strained the US-EU relationship. Our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social says the European response on trade would have been fundamentally different had they not been worried about backlash in other geopolitical theaters.

Madness. Thankfully Olivier doesn't run the Commission. It would have been insane for the EU to retaliate against the US given EU's geopolitical vulnerabilities. What Olivier describes as "stormy waters" could have meant Ukraine being thrown under the bus. Even if a 1% risk, would it be worth it? 1/

Why has French President Emmanuel Macron decided to formally recognise Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September? 1/

Why has French President Emmanuel Macron decided to formally recognise Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September? 1/

This is fantastic journalism, and analysis. Hats off to @christopherjm.ft.com Well worth a read www.ft.com/content/4d61...

The Briefing Room at 4 on #BBCRadio4 + #BBCSounds @davidsonofaaron.bsky.social and guests discuss whether we’re seeing a closer relationship between the UK and the EU? @pmdfoster.bsky.social @jillongovt.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social

To be clear: if there is any area in which concessions to the UK should be made, it’s here. This is about Europe’s defence. Exactly as @mijrahman.bsky.social says in the article btw