This is the first time Macron has retaliated so angrily against the provocations of his alleged "friend" Donald Trump. The policy of appeasement and flattery is breaking down.

This is the first time Macron has retaliated so angrily against the provocations of his alleged "friend" Donald Trump. The policy of appeasement and flattery is breaking down.

Well said @ec.europa.eu “The EU is an open, rules-based single market, with the sovereign right to regulate economic activity in line with our democratic values and international commitments” www.ft.com/content/c4e7...

Reposting my @politico.eu piece from October, in light of Jeff Landry's appointment as special envoy, on how the Greenland risk is underpriced and could become the biggest risk to transatlantic relations www.politico.eu/article/gree...

Reposting my @politico.eu piece from October, in light of Jeff Landry's appointment as special envoy, on how the Greenland risk is underpriced and could become the biggest risk to transatlantic relations www.politico.eu/article/gree...

Some thoughts from me in this very good FT analysis piece on the evolving nature of the Franco-German alliance www.ft.com/content/99d2...

Symbols matter. Yesterday's European Council was not about the narrow question of financing Ukraine (or how that's achieved), but the geopolitics: It was essential to demonstrate decisiveness, unity and strength and the EU vm failed to deliver 1/

“Europe always works on the basis of muddling through,” says our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social following the EU’s compromise to help finance Ukraine. “A much more decisive signal could have been sent, and they failed to do that.”

There was a real risk Europe was going to end 2025 in a disastrously weak position - irrelevant on Ukraine & no deal on using Russian reserves. Instead, the US has been pulled back towards the EU position & a deal on Russian reserves is likely in tomorrow's European Council 1/2

I believe Ukraine's future lies in EU and I hope EU leaders innovate and expedite Kyiv's EU path. But I tell @henryjfoy.ft.com “there is a zero per cent probability that Ukraine will be a full EU member state on 1 January 2027,” regardless of what the latest version of the US “peace plan” says.

Heading to Warsaw tomorrow & Berlin all next week for research meets. Top of agenda -Outlook for Russia/Ukraine war -Transatlantic relations in light of NSS -EU competitiveness -Risks in the EU in 2026 -Domestic politics in Poland, Germany etc Get in touch if you're around!

Heading to Warsaw tomorrow & Berlin all next week for research meets. Top of agenda -Outlook for Russia/Ukraine war -Transatlantic relations in light of NSS -EU competitiveness -Risks in the EU in 2026 -Domestic politics in Poland, Germany etc Get in touch if you're around!

Good prime @theguardian.com on European reactions to the US National Security Strategy, including comments from @maxbergmann.bsky.social, @mijrahman.bsky.social, @alanderminna.bsky.social and me:

Excellent piece by @gideonrachman.bsky.social - which frames the NSS correctly and walks through the three plausible implications for Europe. All of them are worrying, and will be a big part of our research coverage at Eurasia Group going forward

Oh to be a fly– or another kind of bug – on the wall of the emergency Starmer, Zelensky, Merz and Macron meeting in London tomorrow. European leaders have been obsequious about Trump’s zigzags in public; but much more honest in private if last week’s leak to Der Spiegel can be believed. 1/

Oh to be a fly– or another kind of bug – on the wall of the emergency Starmer, Zelensky, Merz and Macron meeting in London tomorrow. European leaders have been obsequious about Trump’s zigzags in public; but much more honest in private if last week’s leak to Der Spiegel can be believed. 1/

The National Security Strategy should impact No10 view that the UKG can have the best of both worlds (demonstrated by UK-US trade deal & EU reset). Starmer should lean in now on closer EU links. But he won't. He'll be more cautious that doing so might cause friction with Trump

Monday's meeting of Starmer, Macron and Merz could turn out to be even more important because of the US national security strategy. They need to decide whether to say in public what they are thinking in private: that the threat is no longer just Putin, it's also Trump

One key battleground we should all keep our eyes very peeled on is Hungary's election in April 2026. PM Viktor Orban is in the balance. If the US's National Security Strategy is now USG policy, we should surely expect some MAGA involvement to help tilt the race in Orban's favour

Good news. But Labour and the UKG are 1,5 years too late in preparing the ground for a Customs Union www.ft.com/content/b01e...

It would be wise to read between the lines of the Macron-Zekensky press conference in Paris today. Both presidents praised the “mediation” efforts of the US. Both men said hopes of a a “durable” and equable peace now rested on Russia. 1/

So let me get this right. We had to leave the EU to control immigration, and we are going to control immigration by emulating the stringent immigration system of Denmark, which is a proud and happy member of the EU.

"Let's not forget, when we remember the service and the sacrifice with this poppy, that the people who bled and died for our democracy and our freedom, weren't just my grandfather who looked like me & worshipped the same God, but people across Empire & Commonwealth, who were Muslim, Sikh & Hindu'

Really good piece. Excellent by @stephenkb.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/94e0...

Could Greenland become the next flashpoint in transatlantic relations? My piece for @politico.eu www.politico.eu/article/gree...

Excellent piece

Trump told Zelenskyy he was losing the war, warning: “If [Putin] wants it, he will destroy you” The US president threw Ukraine’s battlefield maps to one side & said he was “sick” of seeing the frontline again & again Scoop w @christopherjm.ft.com @maxseddon.bsky.social & @a-mackinnon.bsky.social

🇫🇷 Macron told his cabinet that censure motions are dissolution motions. In other words, there will be elections if Lecornu is toppled. Far right & hard left have already tabled censure votes on Thurs. Socialists say they will table their own if Lecornu does not give way today when he speaks at 3pm

🇫🇷 Macron has reappointed Lecornu Incredible (Not in a good sense)

On 🇫🇷: I think tonight we are looking at an extension of the Lecornu process (not a deal or a dissolution). If there was to be a decision tonight, Macron would speak not Lecornu. He will say, I predict cautiously, that he is making progress & has been given more time by Macron

Lecornu has resigned. What will Macron do next? Appoint a technocrat? Call an early election? France's deep political ans budgetary crisis continues. What a week to be in Paris..

An age-old French nightmare — that of growing German military might — is resurfacing in a new form. As Berlin inevitably becomes the EU’s dominant military power, our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social explains how strategic autonomy is now in Germany’s hands: @politico.eu

‼️🇪🇺🇺🇦 All eyes are on Trump's second state visit to the UK, yet a far more important development is unfolding in Brussels, where senior EU officials are closing in on a plan to use the roughly €200 billion in frozen Russian assets in Euroclear to support Ukraine

‼️🇪🇺🇺🇦 All eyes are on Trump's second state visit to the UK, yet a far more important development is unfolding in Brussels, where senior EU officials are closing in on a plan to use the roughly €200 billion in frozen Russian assets in Euroclear to support Ukraine

I've written to Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, urging them to join me in condemning Elon Musk's dangerous remarks inciting violence yesterday. As leaders, we must stand together and make clear Musk will face serious consequences for these actions.

🇫🇷‼️ Sebastien Lecornu, the new French PM, is a confidante of President Macron, a centre right politician from Normandy who joined Macron in 2017 and has been in every government since then.

‼️🇫🇷 The French PM Francois Bayrou lost a parliamentary confidence vote by a landslide tonight - 364 to 194. 16 members of his own coalition voted against him or abstained

Couldnt make this stuff up www.ft.com/content/064f...

A flurry of opinion polls makes bleak reading for President Emmanuel Macron before the almost certain removal of his fourth Prime Minister in 21 months next Monday. Macron’s approval rate fell to a new low of 15% in one survey today 1/ www.lefigaro.fr/politique/so...

Exceptional piece by the exceptional @sylviekauffmann.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/8a14...

“Several leading executives who publicly supported Labour in the run-up to the July 4 poll said they were “horrified” by its record in office so far, criticising “poor political decisions” and a “lack of ability”.“ www.ft.com/content/b103...

‼️🇫🇷 The embattled French PM François Bayrou stunned his political opponents this afternoon by calling a vote of confidence in his own Govt in 2 weeks’ time, challenging Left & Far Right to take responsibility for plunging France into a deep budgetary crisis if they topple him 1/

‼️🇫🇷 The embattled French PM François Bayrou stunned his political opponents this afternoon by calling a vote of confidence in his own Govt in 2 weeks’ time, challenging Left & Far Right to take responsibility for plunging France into a deep budgetary crisis if they topple him 1/

The lengths I'd go to make you focus on the front page of the Sunday papers so you didn't notice the football pages.... (now with the link done right. Cos I'm a tech bro) observer.co.uk/news/opinion...

Is the dial about to shift?

Predictability for our companies & consumers. Stability in the largest trading partnership in the world. And security for European jobs & economic growth in the long-term. This EU-US trade deal delivers for our citizens & companies, and strengthens transatlantic relations. europa.eu/!tqNkQR

An EU diplomat described Russia’s insistence on involving China [in Ukraine's security guarantees], which is allied with Moscow, as a “WTF moment”. www.ft.com/content/3851...

Janan Ganesh in the FT -excellent as usual “Trump’s ambiguity is the worst of all worlds. He supports Europe enough to make it complacent but not enough to make it safe.”

Worth watching Trump-VdL relationship. Trump was v warm to her & gave her floor quickly yest. VdL was also clever in focusing on abducted Ukrainian children, adding a human dimension to the disc & exposing cynicism of Putin. Many EU leader’s thanked VdL today for emphasising this

Having had more chats with senior officials today, yesterday was a good day for Europe & Ukraine. Unprecedented level of co-ordination between them; movement on US guarantees, though much work remains; less space for Putin to stall; more work on EU (19th package) and possible US sanctions if he does