Trump broke it. Europe is going to have to fix it

Not secretly - Hungary and Slovakia openly act as proxies for Russian and Chinese influence in the EU

Trump Administration no longer even trying to hide how corrupt it is

EU officials rightly worry that the Greenland risk may actually increase after Trump’s failure in Iran, as Greenland would, militarily if not politically, be an easier win and show of force for a president seeking to recover damaged credibility 1/2

After 1.5 weeks in Bxl I'm struck by the fact that the Europeans are becoming very good at creating “coalitions of the willing” for scenarios that will never materialise In Ukraine after a ceasefire with Russia To escort tankers in Straits of Hormuz after a ceasefire with Iran

Growing concern in Brussels Orban will “do a Merz” if he loses elections on 12 Apr Merz used outgoing parliament to abolish debt brake. Orban could use his supermajority to make himself President with far-reaching executive powers, then veto everything Peter Magyar's Govt then tries to do

Growing concern in Brussels Orban will “do a Merz” if he loses elections on 12 Apr Merz used outgoing parliament to abolish debt brake. Orban could use his supermajority to make himself President with far-reaching executive powers, then veto everything Peter Magyar's Govt then tries to do

“All of it is unnerving members of Trump’s own Republican Party, who must now justify a 33 per cent leap in fuel prices just as they campaign for November’s midterm elections.” www.ft.com/content/ba3b...

Senior EU officials in Brussels flagged a growing Greenland/Iran risk to me yesterday: That Europe's unwillingness to allow Trump to use their bases to attack Iran would reaffirm the idea in his mind that he has to fully own GL's territory in order for the Arctic to be secure

Trump's war on Iran continuing to go well. 1/ Seems Iran could have capacity to fire missiles at Paris, Berlin, Rome, Madrid 2/ US is easing sanctions on Iranian oil 3/Trump says he's winding down the war while sending thousands of troops and three warships to the Middle East

One thing struck me in chats in Bxl today on EU not helping Trump over Iran One senior EU official noted EU leaders had become somewhat “immune” to Trump's threats. They've been so many (tariffs, NATO, Ukraine, Greenland, against Starmer etc) that the impact has sort of worn of

The reason the E7 put out the statement on the Straits of Hormuz yesterday was precisely to control for this risk. Understand Rutte was key in getting that language together, again because of the risk he/the Europeans now see regarding NATO and Ukraine from a vengeful US

President Emmanuel Macron has further distanced himself from the US-Israeli war in the Gulf by suggesting that the UN should supervise “defensive” operations to secure the Straits of Hormuz “once the guns fall quiet”. 1/

This statement is a big nothingburger. French, Germans & Brits still very clear they've got no intention to do anything on SoH until hostilities stop. Key word in statement is "appropriate"action. Sop to Trump as they're worried he's vengeful but no shift www.gov.uk/government/n...

This statement is a big nothingburger. French, Germans & Brits still very clear they've got no intention to do anything on SoH until hostilities stop. Key word in statement is "appropriate"action. Sop to Trump as they're worried he's vengeful but no shift www.gov.uk/government/n...

I doubt more than 25% of the Hungarian population know who JD Vance is - and 65% of those will be Tisza voters. Unless he can stand up in parliament and sing the National Anthem in perfect Hungarian, I'm sceptical his stunt of visiting Budapest will even add 200 votes to Fidesz' total nationwide

‼️🇭🇺 🇺🇸 MAGA interference in Hungary's elections incoming Putin's tricks have not yet narrowed Peter Magyar's 10-13% lead, so the Trump Administration and JD Vance is going to have a go Don't think it'll work. If anything, could actually help Tisza

The U.K. Government is opting for the EU over Trump. They won't shout this from the rooftops, but this is the implicit political message from Rachel Reeves' Mais lecture today: “No partnership is more important than that between the UK and our European neighbours.”

@germany.diplo.de very clear on X. Sees no role for Germany, NATO or the EU until after the shooting stops. Until then, clearing the straits is America's problem

No use individual European countries doing their own thing. Only chance of influencing Trump is to act together. Goal is to use European leverage to push for broad de-escalation to prevent economic problems deepening. But officals admit they have no idea what Trump will do next

Seems Europeans are using the Greenland playbook on Trump. They've understood strength and firmness is the best way to engage this administration

Belgium's PM is quickly becoming the EU's weakest link on Russia, especially if Orban loses power in Hungary on 12 Apr. Why normalise relations now, when Putin has received a tailwind from sanctions easing, continues to plunder UKR & is preparing a spring offensive? www.ft.com/content/4ce0...

Starmer approach to Trump's SoH request very much being shaped by Blair & Iraq in 2003, which Starmer opposed at the time. Blair rejected idea of European solution & decided to support US come what may. Starmer has alighted on a European approach ie stick with Ger & Fr 🇬🇧🇪🇺🇫🇷🇩🇪

On municipal elections in France I tell the FT: “It is difficult to see a clear national trend so far, but next week’s headlines will be set by whether the RN can deliver final wins in Marseille, Nice or Toulon. If they fail, the results will be a setback for them” www.ft.com/content/bd55...

Trump seems determined to turn his own failure in the Gulf into a calamity for Europe, NATO and possibly Ukraine www.ft.com/content/1ca6...

Incredible scenes from today's pro-Magyar, anti-Orban rally in Budapest. Only 4 weeks left until the most consequential election in the EU this year 🇪🇺🇭🇺

‼️🇫🇷 One important, early first round score has been declared in today’s French town hall elections - a very good, opinion-poll defying result for the former centrist PM Edouard Philippe, the mayor of Le Havre in Normandy. 1/

I tell @georgewparker.bsky.social ahead of Reeves's Mais lecture on Tues on closer UK/EU relations: “Critics will call Reeves’ approach ‘cherry-picking’, but the EU no longer opposes that outright. The real question now is how much cherry-picking it is willing to accept.” www.ft.com/content/0605...

UK Govt has been looking at options, poss anticipating such a US request. Suspect Starmer would want to take part even if presence is mainly symbolic. A chance for PM to try to rebuild bridges with Trump. But it's risky: Public will see it as evidence UK being drawn into the conflict

Eurasia Group's longstanding view - since last summer - has been that Peter Magyar is going to win Hungary's elections. Consensus has moved in our direction. But there is a growing risk Orban may suspend the elections, dispute the results or pull some other stunt to avoid losing on the 12 April

China? Send ships to rescue Trump from the mess of his own making? New levels of delusion. France, UK & Japan also very unwilling to enter a war on which they were not consulted. Sounds as if Trump is preparing to blame his allies for the mess he made - as EU officials suspected

China? Send ships to rescue Trump from the mess of his own making? New levels of delusion. France, UK & Japan also very unwilling to enter a war on which they were not consulted. Sounds as if Trump is preparing to blame his allies for the mess he made - as EU officials suspected

Disappointing, and perhaps surprising. President Emmanuel Macron today continued his precarious balancing act on the Third Gulf War by refusing to criticise Washington’s decision to soften sanctions on Russian oil exports. 1/

So the US has further eased sanctions on Russian oil, now across the board. Should the US now be considered a NATO/EU ally or a Russian ally? No doubt this will be a high agenda item when Emmanuel Macron hosts Volodymyr Zelensky at the Elysee today.

Growing concern in EU capitals that Trump is going to pressure the EU to clear up his mess in the Strait of Hormuz. Argument being: “You guys need the oil most, so you need to do the heavy lifting” on mine sweeping, naval-based air defence & the protection of shipping lanes

Senior EU official: “My boss does not believe that Orban will lose. Which does not mean that he will win, if you know what I mean.” Indeed - given reports of Russian military intelligence now operating out of Budapest. www.ft.com/content/34df...

Big shift from the Commission on nuclear today. Bxl has traditionally been very sceptikal on nuclear energy, if not radically opposed, and promoting only renewables. Today VdL has put both nuclear and renewables on the same footing. Saying the EU needs both.

If you can understand French it's worth listening to Macron's speech this evening to the crew of the Charles de Gaulle off Cyprus Not for anything special that he announces but for the measured, intelligent tone Then imagine what Trump or Hegseth might have said

Trump's Iran intervention is as big a strategic failure as Putin's invasion of Ukraine The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has created the largest oil supply shock in history Brent is above $100 & will stay there until convoys or deescalation restore traffic, probs weeks away

🇫🇷‼️ France is assembling an “unprecedented” fleet of eight frigates, an aircraft carrier and two helicopter carriers in the eastern Med and “off the straits of Hormuz”, President Emmanuel Macron said today. 1/

So France is saying the G7 is not there yet on releasing oil stockpiles Makes sense. If I were a European politico I'd want to add a little more market pressure on Trump to change tack in Iran before addressing oil prices The EU understands the value of market pressure..

So France is saying the G7 is not there yet on releasing oil stockpiles Makes sense. If I were a European politico I'd want to add a little more market pressure on Trump to change tack in Iran before addressing oil prices The EU understands the value of market pressure..

🇫🇷‼️ France is assembling an “unprecedented” fleet of eight frigates, an aircraft carrier and two helicopter carriers in the eastern Med and “off the straits of Hormuz”, President Emmanuel Macron said today. 1/

Richard Haas excellent in today's FT

There is almost no difference between the UK and French positions on Iran. But Macron's approach has been broadly accepted by French media and the opposition - except for the extreme left. The parallel with the UK is interesting.

You couldn't make this up Putin is supporting Iran with intelligence in the war Yet Trump is considering unsanctioning more Russian oil according to Bessent A clueless US Administration, in way over its head

You couldn't make this up Putin is supporting Iran with intelligence in the war Yet Trump is considering unsanctioning more Russian oil according to Bessent A clueless US Administration, in way over its head

People keep asking me whether the EU is warming to the US and Israel's war on Iran. The answer is no The EU pattern has been exactly the same as the UK's: Against the original US and Israel attacks (seen as illegal). But ready to defend allies in the Gulf when attacked by Iran

Vv interesting development Ukraine not only important for European security. But US security too www.ft.com/content/d077...

🇫🇷‼️ France has sent a frigate to protect Cyprus, an EU ally, from Iranian missiles or drones, Macron announced tonight. He also said he had ordered the giant aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its frigate escorts to cut short a Baltic visit and sail to the eastern Med. 1/