The Bank of Canada plans to lay off 10% of its staff. The move comes amid broader cuts of govt workers as PM Carney tries to streamline operations and gird the country against the longer-term impacts of Trump’s trade war. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

The Japanese are breathing a sigh of relief that the got a deal with the US, says our expert @davidboling.bsky.social. This deal is insurance – if they didn’t do this, Trump would retaliate with higher tariffs. https://www.ft.com/content/73c86ecb-3894-4759-bb39-4a32ff7b679b

While the short-term picture looks strong, the US is systematically trading long-term strategic advantages for immediate tactical gains, with the accumulating costs hiding in plain sight. @ianbremmer.com explains in his latest for @gzeromedia.com: https://bit.ly/4hLwH0s

What we’re watching: ➡️ Argentina’s Milei says no float just yet ➡️ Putin signals he’s ready to match any new US nuclear tests ➡️ The ‘stans come to stan Trump Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

A typhoon ripped through the Philippines on Tuesday, killing at least 85 people and forcing roughly 400,000 people to flee their homes. The typhoon is set to continue through other parts of Southeast Asia. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

Our expert David Boling says the Japanese are breathing a sigh of relief that they got a deal with the US. “But the real issue is going to be how this is implemented. Takaichi is being proactive.”

JNIM, a militant group that has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, is blocking fuel from entering Mali’s capital, with the aim of bringing down the govt. Our expert Jeanne Ramier explains how the damage from this could spread beyond Mali: @gzeromedia.com

What we’re watching: ➡️ Venezuela’s Maduro turns the screws as Trump ponders regime change ➡️ Democrats celebrate a good election night ➡️ Leading economist warns of three big bubbles Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Former US Vice President Dick Cheney died on Monday at 84. The second-in-command to President George W. Bush, Cheney was best known for pushing the 2003 invasion of Iraq, using flawed intelligence to justify the decision. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ It’s Election Day in the United States ➡️ Germany to end asylum for Syrians ➡️ Is India buying less Russian oil? Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner on Saturday of the East African country’s election with 98% of the vote. Several opposition leaders were barred from running and detained. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Trump threatens hit on Nigeria over plight of Christians ➡️ Mali on verge of succumbing to jihadis ➡️ Split-screen on regime change in Venezuela Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

We’re now living in a post-American order, with no one willing or able to fill the vacuum. @ianbremmer.com explains how the rest of the world can (and should) respond to this new reality: @gzeromedia.com https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/the-worlds-response-to-americas-revolution

What we’re watching : ➡️ Epstein scandal takes down the king’s brother ➡️ Cordial Xi-Takaichi meeting masks simmering Japan-China tensions ➡️ Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue in Brazil Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

President Trump’s political revolution has made America an unreliable player on the global stage. How can the rest of the world respond? @ianbremmer explains in his latest for @gzeromedia: https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/the-worlds-response-to-americas-revolution

Our expert Greg Brew says the US and China are trying to sell rival energy export models and it’s unclear who will come out on top. The US model is built around fossil fuels, whereas the Chinese model is built around cheap renewables.

"China already dominates in EV-related tech and batteries so there is no point prioritizing it,” says our expert Dan Wang. “It doesn’t mean the government will require capacity to be cut, but the market will play a bigger role in deciding who survives." https://reut.rs/47hBuU4

What we’re watching: ➡️ Canada’s government could collapse next week ➡️ Far right takes a hit in Dutch election ➡️ Iran’s president wants to move the capital Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

“I think this is about domestic policy objectives – migration and stemming drug flows – and a desire to remove Maduro from power,” says our expert Risa Grais-Targow on the recent US military drills off Venezuela’s shores. @gzeromedia.com

“If you look at the totality of the relationship between the US and China,” says @ianbremmer.com. “It’s in a significantly more challenging place, and longer term, the trajectory is more toward decoupling.” #TopRisks2025

A massive police raid targeting a drug-trafficking organization in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, yesterday left at least 64 people dead. The state governor said it was the “biggest operation” in Rio’s history. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

“The new US sanctions are most likely insufficient to change Putin’s strategy in the war against Ukraine,” says our expert @awbrideau.bsky.social. The full effect will depend on whether the largest importers of Russian oil, India and China, halt these purchases.

What we’re watching: ➡️ The Gaza ceasefire wobbles, and Hamas “finds” a hostage body ➡️ Dutch voters head to the polls, as far-right eyes power (again) ➡️ Tomorrow’s the big day: Trump-Xi meeting Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

As a global firm, Eurasia Group is focused on improving our impact worldwide, while also doing our part to help those in need in our local communities. Over the last month, staff in New York, London, and DC volunteered at local soup kitchens, while our teams in Brazil organized a food collection.

China thinks US policy on Taiwan will evolve in its favor, says our expert Amanda Hsiao. Beijing sees the potential for US commitments to Taiwan to weaken over time because of the shift in balance of power that they believe increasingly advantages China.

What we’re watching: ➡️ Trump signs deals in Tokyo ➡️ Bill Gates changes his tune on climate change ➡️ World’s oldest leader wins another term in Cameroon Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

President Trump is set to meet with President Xi during his five-day trip to Asia this week. Our expert David Meale expects that the meeting will strike a positive tone, due to the respect the two leaders show each other. @gzeromedia.com

“The US and China are likely to have less understanding of each other and interconnection,” writes @ianbremmer.com. This comes at a time when underlying world systems (energy, climate, and the data to understand and change them) need to be more integrated. @semafor.com

Hurricane Melissa, which was upgraded over the weekend to a Category 5 storm, is expected to hit Jamaica. It’s anticipated to bring 30 inches of rain and 165-mph winds. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com#HardNumbers

Export controls threaten to undermine Beijing’s bid to court other countries. Our expert David Meale explains that while Beijing claims they aren’t a hegemon, the rare earth rules contradict that. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/25/world/asia/trump-china-trade-deal-xi.html

“Qatar wants influence and a say in Gaza whether through a semi-disarmed Hamas, a completely disarmed political Hamas or something else,” says our expert Firas Maksad. “That’s going to be problematic for Israel.”

What we’re watching: ➡️ Argentina’s Milei bounces back in midterms ➡️ Can Trump and Lula make a deal? ➡️ Sudan’s Darfur region falls to the Rapid Support Forces Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

The United States is still the world’s most powerful nation – but it has chosen to walk away from the international system it built and led for three-quarters of a century. @ianbremmer.com explains Trump’s political revolution – and whether or not it will succeed: @gzeromedia.com

Our expert Dan Wang says the confirmation of a Trump-Xi meeting suggests China will commit to making certain concessions, such as agricultural purchase or investment in America, and prioritize rare earth approval for the US.

“President Trump is replacing the rule of law with the rule of Don,” writes @ianbremmer.com. “Much like he’s embracing the law of the jungle – where the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must – internationally.” #TopRisks2025 @gzeromedia.com

What we’re watching: ➡️ Trump calls off trade talks with Canada ➡️ Court throws out case to oust Turkish opposition leader ➡️ Cameroon on edge as election results set to finally arrive Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

"African countries would stand a better chance of thriving in the postliberal international order if they came together." Our expert @amakaanku.bsky.social explains why South Africa & Nigeria are best positioned to lead in this new era for @foreignaffairs.com: https://fam.ag/4nrJXZz

In a moment of religious and historical significance, King Charles III prayed alongside Pope Leo XIV. This marks the first head of the Church of England to do so since this church split from the Vatican 491 years ago. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

The US has chosen to walk away from the international system it built and led not because it’s weak – because it wants to. @ianbremmer.com explains the post-American order and what that means for @gzeromedia.com:

Beijing has achieved a near-monopoly in rare earths production, but its policies have also led to rampant overcapacity and fueled deflationary measures. Our expert Dan Wang says the main risk here is the coexistence of high debt and low inflation.

What we’re watching: ➡️ Trump sanctions Russia’s biggest oil firms ➡️ Myanmar’s junta gains ground with China’s help ➡️ Brazil’s president to seek a fourth term Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

China replaced the US as Germany’s leading trade partner. The two nations exchanged €163.4 billion worth of products in the first eight months of this year, per Reuters, compared to US-Germany trade of €162.8 billion. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Russia bombs Ukraine after second Trump-Putin date called off ➡️ Proposed EU climate rules prompt warning from the US and Qatar ➡️ Ireland set to pick opposition candidate for president Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

"China's ability to throttle rare earth exports is an exceptionally powerful tool," says our expert Dan Wang. Dan adds that Western countries are not used to complying with a monopolistic control of critical resources from countries on “the other side.”

“The sentiment on the gas side, particularly in the US, is still very strong,” says our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social. “Rig count for gas continues to increase or remain fairly steady, even as the oil rig count falls.”

What we’re watching: ➡️ US and Australia make deals to counter China ➡️ Azerbaijan-Armenia peace progress gets granular, literally ➡️ Aiming to keep the peace, US deploys Vance to Israel Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Another #GZEROSummit Japan comes to an end! Thank you to our speakers, attendees, and staff for making this year’s event a success. Topics included trade, tech innovation, security, energy, and the environment. Watch @ianbremmer.com's ‘State of the World’ speech:

Greetings from Tokyo, where our ninth annual #GZEROSummit Japan is about to kick off! Stay tuned for more coverage, including @ianbremmer.com's highly anticipated ‘State of the World’ speech.

On Sunday, eight objects—predominantly jewelry—were stolen from the Louvre in Paris. French authorities are still seeking the perpetrators and the items they took. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Ceasefire returns to Gaza after weekend exchange of fire ➡️ Trump presses Zelensky to cede Donbas in heated meeting ➡️ Japan set to have first female PM Get the details from @gzeromedia.com: