What we’re watching: ➡️ Troupe of Western nations recognize Palestinian state ahead of UN meeting ➡️ Philippine protests turn violent ➡️ Russia tacks another year onto key nuclear arms treaty Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ The world’s most powerful pairing talk TikTok and trade ➡️ EU introduces new sanctions on Russia ➡️ Is the US about to return to Afghanistan? Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

A group of major American firms pledged to invest $200 billion in the UK for projects including data centers and AI expansion. The announcement came as US President Trump is in the UK for a state visit. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

Anyone expecting Bolsonaro’s conviction to turn the page on radical polarization and heal Brazil’s political wounds is in for a rude awakening. @ianbremmer.com explains in his latest for @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Saudi Arabia signs defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan ➡️ Italy passes first AI law ➡️ Jimmy Kimmel taken off air for Charlie Kirk comment Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

The first day of President Trump’s state visit to the UK culminated with an exclusive 150-person white-tie state banquet. The harder edge politics will come Thursday, when Trump meets with PM Starmer. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ China bans Nvidia’s last AI chip as its domestic industry catches up ➡️ A Fed cut is coming – but what are the caveats? ➡️ Saudi Arabia’s liberalization streak faces the music Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Poland increased its cybersecurity budget from €600 million ($708m) to €1 billion ($1.18b) after Russian hackers targeted its hospitals and Warsaw’s water supply. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

The scale of the deployment and the ambitions of the Trump admin suggest it wants to go big, maybe by causing internal regime fracture in Venezuela, says our expert Risa Grais-Targow. But there seems to be a mismatch between the targets and deployed assets.

What we’re watching: ➡️ Israel commences Gaza City ground invasion amid UN genocide report ➡️ Economic gloom hovers over Malawi election ➡️ Are India-US trade tensions set to dissipate? Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ TikTok deal emerges ahead of possible Trump-Xi call ➡️ Germany’s AfD triples vote in state election ➡️ African Union to form critical minerals coalition Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

The world’s maritime regions are already hotter, more contested, and more fragile than ever before, making for not just an environmental crisis, but a geopolitical one. Ahead of #ClimateWeekNYC, our expert @majovalverde.bsky.social for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social:

The US remains the most powerful country in the world, but it is refusing to lead the way it has historically on collective security, free trade, and democracy promotion, instead actively dismantling the order it built. @ianbremmer explains:

“It would be very risky for Japan to really put up a fuss, where you might risk retaliation,” says our expert @davidboling.bsky.social. “It is just the reality when you’re dealing with Trump. You have to be very pragmatic.”

What we’re watching: ➡️ US authorities arrest suspect in Charlie Kirk murder ➡️ Germany’s heavyweight state holds key election ➡️ Turkish court to decide fate of key opposition leader Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Inflation was a major factor that pushed Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba to resign, but the headline inflation figure masks souring prices for a major Japanese food staple: rice. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:#GraphicTruthhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/graphic-truth/graphic-truth-japans-rice-price-explosion

Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro has deployed military assets to 284 “battlefront” locations across the country. The move comes amid rising tensions with the US, as Washington has deployed its own warships and jets. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve will prove self-defeating, driving up borrowing costs for American consumers, businesses, and the federal government. @ianbremmer explains for @gzeromedia: https://www.gzeromedia.com/news/analysis/trumps-attacks-on-the-fed-will-backfire

Following Charlie Kirk’s murder, is political violence in the US about to get worse? Our expert Noah Daponte-Smith says that while an escalatory cycle can certainly still be avoided, “there is a higher potential for more political violence.” @gzeromedia.com

What we’re watching: ➡️ Nepal’s Gen Z protestors pick their woman ➡️ Trump’s Belarus courtship continues Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Trump thinks a weaker, more divided Europe is better for the US, says @ianbremmer.com. Meanwhile, Europeans see the US as unpredictable and increasingly unreliable. That’s not an asset, it’s a problem. #GZEROSummit Europe

Greetings from the inaugural #GZEROSummit Europe, hosted by LSEG and Eurasia Group! Attending today’s event? Share with us on social using #GZEROSummit.

Who will be Japan’s next leader? Our expert @davidboling.bsky.social joins @gzeromedia.com to discuss Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation, likely replacements, and what to watch for moving forward:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Russian drones shot down over Poland ➡️ African climate summit pushes $100bn green plan ➡️ Iran agrees to international nuclear inspections Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

US retail giant Walmart is set to launch its first store in Africa by the end of the year. The store will open in South Africa, the continent’s most industrialized economy. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

America may still be the world’s most powerful country, but it refuses to lead the global order it created. @ianbremmer.com discusses the G-Zero vacuum of global leadership: https://www.ekathimerini.com/in-depth/interviews-in-depth/1280075/us-actively-dismantling-the-order-it-built/

What we’re watching: ➡️ Israel strikes Hamas leaders in Qatar ➡️ Nepal’s prime minister steps down amid growing protests ➡️ Norway’s center-left party wins again Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social says that following Bayrou’s ousting, the most likely scenario is that Macron will appoint a prime minister from his centrist bloc, who will try to secure the support of the left-leaning Socialist Party to pass a 2026 budget. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

What we’re watching: ➡️ What is the “coalition of the willing” willing to do? ➡️ Are the Abraham Accords under threat? ➡️ Major Chinese hack even larger than first feared, say security officials Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Russia launched 526 drones at Ukraine overnight. Rates of drone and missile strikes have nearly doubled since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inconclusive meeting with US President Donald Trump last month. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

“Beijing’s attempts to take advantage of Trumpian chaos to shore up its international image has its limits,” says our expert Amanda Hsiao. China military parade “will be undercut by a massive display of military hard power and its close ties and narrative alignment with Moscow.”

Kim’s attendance at China’s military parade is a sign of warming ties between Beijing and Pyongyang. Our expert Jeremy Chan says that China is likely seeking to keep Kim close in the face of growing cooperation between North Korea and Russia.

“The secret sauce that got him elected is what is sending him to prison,” says our expert Christopher Garman on fmr President Bolsonaro. “He has that anti-establishment DNA — and this led to what it led.”

What we’re watching: ➡️ China’s giant parade sends a message to the West ➡️ Poland’s new president comes to DC to discuss its own Russia problem ➡️ Trump escalates pressure on Maduro with Caribbean strike

Six AfD candidates running in local elections in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia have died in recent weeks. Police say there’s no evidence of foul play, though questions are being raised on social media. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Russia suspected of jamming von der Leyen’s plane ➡️ Ghana’s chief justice fired in rare presidential move ➡️ Taliban calls for help as earthquake death toll surpasses 1,400 Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

While the EU has improved its defense outlook, there are other areas where it’s still falling short in closing its competitiveness gap. Our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social examines where progress is being made versus where the bloc is falling short: @politico.eu

"Japanese inflation remains modest compared to elsewhere, but it is enough to hurt people's pocketbooks, mainly because salaries have not kept up," says our expert David Boling. "The shift has been difficult, especially for the elderly on fixed incomes."

Xi Jinping is gathering his closest allies for a landmark summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. But our expert Jeremy Chan says recent history shows that when the going gets tough, China is absent for its friends.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this weekend. This will be his first visit to China in seven years, a sign that tensions between the two massive countries are easing. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

The US imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods on Wednesday, doubling the earlier 25% rate after New Delhi increased purchases of Russian oil. The hardest hit sectors: textiles, jewelry, leather, food, and autos. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Protests erupt further in Indonesia ➡️ India and Canada continue to mend ties after Sikh separatist killing ➡️ El Salvador schools enforce military haircuts Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Bayrou is clinging to a slim chance of remaining France’s prime minister. Our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social says Bayrou sought to shock France into facing the gravity of the country’s debt crisis, though he may have changed little but the date of his own execution.

China stands to benefit from Trump’s tariff policies and tensions with the Fed, as this can help undermine the dollar. Our expert Dan Wang says China appears to be accelerating its de-dollarization efforts, though progress remains uneven.

A series of Russian strikes in residential areas of Kyiv last night left at least 19 people dead, with one of the bombs hitting a European Union office. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Thailand’s courts will decide whether to oust prime minister ➡️ Israel strikes Syria again ➡️ Storms brew around UK’s Starmer Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Ukraine will allow men aged 18–22 to leave the country, easing a wartime ban that kept males under 60 from crossing the border. Amid ongoing manpower shortages, Zelensky remains resistant to lowering the draft age below 25. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching : ➡️ There is a US plan for Gaza ➡️ Russia uses Niger to go nuclear on France and the West ➡️ Australia identifies Iran funding to synagogue attackers Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Pakistan has evacuated at least 150,000 people from areas around three rivers of the Punjab province. The flooding could also inflame geopolitical tensions, as India warned that it will release excess water into Pakistan. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

Fewer jobs, fiercer competition, and degrees that don’t line up with the work that’s actually out there. The college premium has flipped – new grads are now more likely to be unemployed. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:#GraphicTruthhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/the-collapse-of-the-college-premium