Indonesia is set to deploy a maximum of 8,000 troops to Gaza. This marks the first country to lend soldiers to the international peacekeeping effort in the enclave – a risky move for Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Israel expands control in the West Bank ➡️ Challenger to Hungary’s Orbán releases manifesto ➡️ Ethiopia exposed as another regional power in Sudan’s civil war Get the details from @gzeromedia.com

With a large pro-establishment party leading the coalition, the next Thai govt will have a stronger anchor than other recent admins, says our expert @mumfordasia.bsky.social. That said, the new govt will be under pressure to turn around the struggling economy.

Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show, which included notable political messaging, had 135 million viewers. Early estimates suggest it was the most-watched halftime show of all time. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

If Bhumjaithai leads the next Thai government, our expert @mumfordasia.bsky.social expects that fiscal policy will likely be more prudent, with some stimulus. “Economic reforms would likely only be incremental under a conservative-led government.”

What we’re watching: ➡️ Are Starmer’s days numbered? ➡️ Sweden to tighten citizenship laws ➡️ Thai voters reject change Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

India agreed to stop importing Russian oil – but that may be easier said than done. In January, India imported approx. 1.2M barrels of Russian crude oil every day. That’s 76 Olympic-sized swimming pools. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com#GraphicTruth

Iran may be the next theater where President Trump tries to reshape reality with military force. And unlike his quick win in Venezuela, @ianbremmer says this one could spiral. @gzeromedia https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/is-trump-about-to-strike-iran-again

“The world’s most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution." @ianbremmer.com and Cliff Kupchan say that the US is “the principal source of global risk in 2026.” #TopRisks2026

What we’re watching: ➡️ Three elections, one weekend ➡️ The US and China pick their friends ➡️ Violence in Pakistan spreads to its capital Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

15 migrants died after their boat collided w/ a Greek Coast Guard vessel. Crossings like this have declined since the peak of the European migration crisis, but tens of thousands of people still risk the journey each year. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

Trump’s team is emboldened after the removal of Maduro, but Iran isn’t Venezuela. The regime has more capacity to hit back, deeper internal loyalty, larger security forces, and rocky succession prospects. @ianbremmer.com’s latest for @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ The end of the New START? ➡️ Syria looks to revive its oil sector with new Chevron deal ➡️ The lights go off in parts of Cuba Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

White House border czar Tom Homan announced that 700 ICE and border agents will leave the Minneapolis area. 2,300 agents will remain in the city’s vicinity, far more than the 80 that were there before December 1. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ The leader of South Africa’s second-largest party to stand down ➡️ Trump and Petro keep the peace at the White House ➡️ Groundhog Day diplomacy for Russia-Ukraine Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social says that the movement of destroyers in the Red Sea and eastern Mediterranean indicate that “both the US and Israel are very concerned about an Iranian retaliation against Israel, even if Israel is not directly involved.”

The Middle East is entering a new phase defined by competition between two emerging blocs: an Abrahamic & an Islamic coalition. Our expert Firas Maksad explains how this rivalry will determine the region’s future and the US’s role in it. @foreignpolicy.com

What we’re watching: ➡️ Modi and Trump finally make up ➡️ Turkey-Saudi rapprochement deepens ➡️ Sign of peace in war-torn Congo Get the details from @gzeromedia.com

French President Macron has been pushing digital sovereignty for years, but there’s now a lot more political momentum behind de-risking from US tech. “It feels kind of like there’s a real zeitgeist shift,” says our expert Nick Reiners.

The United States remains the most investable major economy in the world, even if that edge is narrowing. The core reason: TINA (there is no alternative). #TopRisks2026

Geopolitics are becoming more anarchic and competitive—that’s the G-Zero world we’ve been warning about for over a decade. But spheres of influence? The world is messier than that—and far harder to carve up. #TopRisks2026

The US-China relationship is headed for at least a year of relative stability, for three reinforcing reasons. Find out why in our #TopRisks2026 report ⬇️ https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2026

Outside of the US, no other country will be as profoundly affected by our #1 risk, US political revolution, as Canada. From trade to defense policy, see the implications of our #TopRisks2026 on Canada ⬇️ https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-Risks-2026-Implications-for-Canada

Our #TopRisks2026 report includes 4 Red Herrings. Some people think these are big risks heading into 2026. We don’t. https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2026

Last week, Ukraine’s energy minister said the power grid suffered its most difficult day since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Russian strikes have left much of the Ukrainian public without heat amid dropping temps. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com#GraphicTruth

The estimated death toll in Iran during the protests at the start of this year per local health officials: 30,000. The regime itself said there had been 3,117 deaths. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ New Minneapolis shooting sparks some GOP backlash ➡️ China accuses top general of being a spy ➡️ Israel retrieves the last hostage – but can they disarm Hamas? Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Increased shipments of liquid natural gas from the US helped ease pressure on Europe when Russia invaded Ukraine. Our expert Henning Gloystein explains how Europe may now face similar political pressure after replacing one natural gas dependency with another:

Beijing’s reaction to Trump’s push to seize Greenland has been relatively muted compared to its reaction about Venezuela. Our expert David Meale says Greenland is more of a novel issue for China, whereas Beijing had a strong relationship with Venezuela.

“TikTok’s success in 2025 demonstrates a path to navigate geopolitical headwinds despite the continuously deteriorating US-China relationship — a rare case of clever commercial strategy triumphing over politics,” says our expert Xiaomeng Lu.

What we’re watching: ➡️ US sends warning to Haiti ➡️ US repositions forces toward Iran ➡️Russia, Ukraine, and the US meet for first time to talk peace Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Our #TopRisks2026 will have a modest impact on Brazil, with some risks even benefitting the country in the near term. Brazil's competitive 2026 elections will be decisive for its political outlook, and some risks have the potential to tilt the balance.

There are roughly 2.4M people of Cuban descent living in the US – but the level of emigration has spiked in recent years. As COVID-19 decimated the tourism sector, residents sought opportunities abroad. #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Did Trump blink on Greenland? ➡️ Iran’s regime says protests have ended ➡️ Mexican president in hot water over extraditions Get the details from @gzeromedia.com

Japan entered 2026 under economic pressure from inflation, a weak yen, and a growing debt burden. Implications from several of our #TopRisks2026—such as China’s deflation trap and Zombie USMCA—pose additional challenges for PM Takaichi Sanae.

The nuclear power situation in France is reminiscent of the challenges facing the water market, explains our expert Franck Gbaguidi. France wants new reactors without having solved the capacity issue. *en francais*

Will Europe be on the receiving end of TACO or FAFO? @ianbremmer.com explains that strong countries (ex. China) tend to get workable compromises, whereas weaker countries (ex. Venezuela) get high tariffs, missile strikes, or the extradition of leadership.

What we’re watching: ➡️ Canada, US relations get frosty in Davos ➡️ In bid to halt insurgents, Ethiopian military commits friendly fire ➡️ EU-Mercosur deal blocked Get the details from @gzeromedia.com

Iran’s regime is on the ropes. The Islamic Republic’s current trajectory is unsustainable, but our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social explains how if change comes to Iran, it will likely come from within the system. @vox.com https://www.vox.com/politics/475497/iran-regime-reform-khamenei

Almost all our #TopRisks2026 hit Europe at its weakest points, contributing to the perfect storm that has been brewing in the G-Zero era. From distraught leaders to piecemeal progress on competitiveness, check out the implications for Europe:

Half of humanity already lives under water stress, and there’s no architecture to manage it. As water becomes the most contested shared resource on the planet, it will also become a loaded weapon in several of the world’s most dangerous rivalries. #TopRisks2026

Why lock into an agreement when the current approach keeps delivering for the American president and neither Canada nor Mexico can afford to walk away? Trump holds the cards and he knows it. Zombie USMCA is #9 on #TopRisks2026:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Food fight! Why the US is upset about the EU-Mercosur deal ➡️ Sudan food stocks running dry ➡️ Denmark puts boots on the ground in Greenland Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

In 2026, growing pressure for AI companies to demonstrate profitability will accelerate the shift to extractive and socially disruptive business models. The near-term threat is not superhuman machines but the decline of thinking, feeling, and social humans. #TopRisks2026

China’s deflationary spiral will deepen in 2026. Beijing will try to export its way out, flooding global markets—a fundamentally beggar-thy-neighbor approach that most trading partners may absorb this year but won’t tolerate forever. #TopRisks2026

What we’re watching: ➡️ Venezuela’s political limbo on display in Washington ➡️ Phase two in Gaza begins ➡️ Tories in freefall as Badenoch fires her rival – who duly joins Reform Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

In 2025, we warned that President Trump would amplify crony capitalism in the world’s largest economy. What emerged is the most economically interventionist administration since the New Deal. In 2026, this will expand and entrench further. #TopRisks2026

What we’re watching: ➡️ An Arctic standoff in Washington ➡️ Somalia abruptly cuts ties with the UAE ➡️ Japan’s prime minister expected to take a general election gamble Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

As water becomes increasingly scarce, it will become a dangerous weapon in some of the world’s most heated rivalries. Read more about the water weapon via @circleofblue.bsky.social: #TopRisks2026

“Under Trump, the US status as the world’s largest petrostate is growing,” says our expert Cliff Kupchan. “In my view, it’s a bad bet.” #TopRisks2026 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/us/politics/trump-venezuela-oil-dominance-influence.html