#ICYMI: Our friends at @gzeromedia.com#ICYMIreview our #TopRisks2025 ⬇️ https://www.gzeromedia.com/news/analysis/top-risks-of-2025-reviewed

What we’re watching: ➡️ Group of Yemeni ministers announce support for rebel group ➡️ US carries out surveillance over Nigeria ➡️ Myanmar to hold elections amid concerns over forced voting Get the details from @gzeromedia.com: www.gzeromedia.com/news/watchin...

Looking back at #TopRisks2025 – how did we do? First up: #10 Mexican standoff The political challenges for Mexico’s economy in 2025 were significant, but the surprise was how well Pres. Sheinbaum was able to navigate her relationship with Pres. Trump.

And just like that, our 2025 event season has reached its end! Thank you to all our partners, sponsors, speakers, and attendees for the thoughtful, timely dialogue. A special thank you to our employees who brought these events to life.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to build France’s first aircraft carrier in decades, as Europe accelerates rearmament. The ship won’t be ready before 2038. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Ukraine takes the war to Moscow ➡️ Cambodia-Thailand talks set for Xmas eve ➡️ Could a suspected Islamic State attack push Syrian groups to make a deal? Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

“Now there is a chancellor who understands geopolitics, who wants to lean in and do more on Europe," says our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social. "But it is Paris now that is unable to deliver on its side of the bargain.”

Angola secured $753M in loans from the US and South Africa to revamp a railway line linking mining regions. The investment is strategic, as it helps the US secure critical mineral supplies and counter China’s influence. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Australia launches gun buyback after Bondi Beach shooting ➡️ EU to loan Ukraine $105 billion, without frozen Russian assets ➡️ China vs the US in Latin America Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

“Europe always works on the basis of muddling through,” says our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social following the EU’s compromise to help finance Ukraine. “A much more decisive signal could have been sent, and they failed to do that.”

Throughout 2025, Eurasia Group focused on improving our impact through volunteerism to help those in need. We are proud to see our offices in Brazil recognized by Sesc Mesa Brasil for their food collection and donation efforts.

What we’re watching: ➡️ Pakistani-Afghan rift gives India an opening ➡️ China tries to patch up the Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire ➡️ US gives Taiwan a $11 billion Christmas present Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

By the end of the year, Germany plans to accept over 500 Afghan refugees who assisted German troops on the ground in Afghanistan or face threats from the Taliban. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

Europe has the leverage to shape Ukraine's future – and its own. As EU leaders gather in Brussels, @ianbremmer.com explains how the outcome of this summit is a test for Europe that will shape its place in the G-Zero world and beyond. @gzeromedia.com

US President Donald Trump added five new countries – Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, South Sudan, and Syria – to the list of nations banned from traveling to the US. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ EU-Mercosur trade deal is on the chopping block ➡️ US armada surrounds Venezuela ➡️ The US eyes Pakistan as provider of stabilizing forces in Gaza Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Canada has been a self-governing nation for 158 years and has been fully independent of the UK Parliament since 1982. Prime Minister Carney is getting called out for sprinkling in British English spellings rather than Canadian English. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Ukraine peace talks up their pace ➡️ A step toward peace in the DRC-Rwanda conflict ➡️ Can badly-needed humanitarian aid reach Sudan? Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

#TopRisks2026 marks twenty years of @ianbremmer.com’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the year. Leading up to our 5 January launch, we’ll be looking back at #TopRisks2025, as well as some of the most notable risks from the last two decades. Stay tuned…

Most European leaders now believe that America can no longer be counted on as an ally. That’s an existential crisis for the transatlantic alliance. Or, as we put it in our #TopRisks2025, the G-Zero wins. @gzeromedia.com

What we’re watching: ➡️ Australia’s Jewish community in mourning again ➡️ Chile becomes latest Latin American state to shift right ➡️ South Africa set to scrap Black ownership rule for foreign companies Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

The top issue for Japanese voters isn’t Taiwan, immigration, or relations with Trump – it’s inflation. Our expert @davidboling.bsky.social says inflation is the biggest danger for Prime Minister Takaichi. He discusses with @gzeromedia.com:

America’s new National Security Strategy confirms what Europeans have feared since Vice President JD Vance’s speech in Munich last February: Washington now sees a strong, unified EU as a problem, not an ally. @ianbremmer.com’s latest for @gzeromedia.com:

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is tentatively holding, but conditions on the ground in Gaza remain dire. Most Palestinians are pitching tents in overcrowded camps, atop 68 million tons of rubble. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Babiš returns to power in Czechia ➡️ The peace won’t hold between Rwandan-backed rebels and the DRC ➡️ Typeface politics Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Drone strikes on a kindergarten and hospital in Sudan last Thursday left 114 people dead, according to the World Health Organization. The attack is the latest atrocity in the brutal two-and-a-half-year civil war. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Balloon crisis over the Baltics ➡️ Trump puts Nvidia’s chips on the table – but China declines ➡️ Australia bans social media for kids Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Fighting flares again on the Thai-Cambodian border ➡️ Trump makes ties to “Monroe Doctrine” official ➡️ Benin’s government says it thwarted a coup effort Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Another #GZEROSummit Latam in the books! As our event season comes to an end, we are grateful for our teams, partners, and sponsors. We appreciate each opportunity to bring business and policy leaders together for meaningful dialogues and look forward to growing this community.

Nearly four years into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the push to end the war is intensifying. Despite the flurry of diplomatic activity, @ianbremmer.com says the odds of a ceasefire remain slim. @gzeromedia.com https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/the-ukraine-peace-push-is-failing-here-s-why

What we’re watching: ➡️ Putin leaves India with not much to show for it ➡️ Kyrgyzstan tumbles away from democracy ➡️ UAE-backed separatist group breaks open Yemeni civil war Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Child deaths are set to rise for the first time this millennium, with 4.8M children under five projected to die this year amid sharp drops in foreign aid. Global health spending is down, and vaccine skepticism is surging. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

Falling oil revenue is “likely to be a constant toothache that sets into the Russian war effort,” says our expert Cliff Kupchan. Much stronger sanctions—including the unlikely prospect of blocking sales to China—are required to sharply lower Russia’s income.

The push to end the war between Russia and Ukraine is intensifying, but each side’s core objectives are fundamentally incompatible. While peace will come eventually, @ianbremmer.com says it won’t come from the current diplomatic push. @gzeromedia.com

What we’re watching: ➡️ Indonesia identifies aggravator of Sumatra flood deaths ➡️ Tunisian crackdown widens ➡️ Washington hosts DRC-Rwanda peace ceremony Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

The family of Alejandro Carranza Medina became the first to file a formal complaint related to the US boat bombings in the Caribbean. The family's complaint claims the victim was a fisherman who was unjustly killed. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

“Zelensky’s political problems arguably make it even harder for him to make any major concessions to secure a cease-fire,” says our expert @awbrideau.bsky.social. He joins @gzeromedia.com to discuss what's next for Zelensky: https://www.gzeromedia.com/news/analysis/whats-next-for-zelensky

What we’re watching: ➡️ Ultra-Orthodox conscription to divide Israel’s parliament again ➡️ France and China meet with trade and Ukraine on the table ➡️ Putin makes high-stakes visit to India Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Just 515 votes separate the top two candidates in Sunday’s presidential election in Honduras. Officials are still tallying the votes, and have called for patience. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

“A quick ceasefire remains unlikely despite ongoing US-led talks,” says our expert @mijrahman.bsky.social. Russia and Ukraine are expected to “continue to maneuver for favorable ceasefire terms that will be unacceptable to the other side.”

What we’re watching: ➡️ Washington is growing uncomfortable with Venezuela strike ➡️ Tax protests rock Bulgaria ➡️ China-Japan coastguard faceoff in disputed waters Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

Our #GZEROSummit Latam is underway in Mexico City! With the upcoming review of USMCA, today’s agenda will touch on trade and regional integration, in addition to technology, infrastructure, and markets. Attending today’s event? Share with us on social using #GZEROSummit.

The death toll from the tropical storm that battered Southeast Asia is now close to 800. Indonesia has been hit especially hard – at least 600 people have died there as the heavy rains caused floods and landslides. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Is the US attack on Venezuela imminent? ➡️ Honduras’ election couldn’t be closer ➡️ Skepticism of migrants and refugees spreads to developing nations Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

It’s been a busy fall at Eurasia Group! With summits in London, Toronto, Tokyo and Abu Dhabi, as well as volunteering initiatives in local communities for our offices around the world. As we head into the final stretch of the year, we are thankful for our incredible teams that make it all possible.

US President Trump plans to build a number of temporary residential compounds for Palestinians in eastern Gaza, each of which would house as many as 20,000-25,000 people. Officials say these won't be ready for months. #HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:

We’re not much closer to a cease-fire in Ukraine, says @ianbremmer.com. What the Russians are putting on the table isn’t meant for the Ukrainians to accept – Putin is trying to split the Americans from the Europeans.

What we’re watching: ➡️ Witkoff leak is only the latest glitch in Russia-Ukraine negotiations ➡️ Will the UK’s new budget right the ship? ➡️ Syria’s sectarian tensions flare again after brutal double killing Get the details from @gzeromedia.com:

According to a new poll, there are zero candidates who would beat French far-right leader Jordan Bardella in a head-to-head presidential runoff. Caveat: it’s early – the election won’t be held until 2027. #HardNumbers from @gzeromedia.com:

What we’re watching: ➡️ Ukraine and Russia still worlds apart as peace talks continue ➡️ Was Taiwan the subject of US-China call? ➡️ Sudan paramilitaries agree to one-sided ceasefire Get the details from @gzeromedia.com: