you have to hope president trump didn’t think iran would be as easy as venezuela. and yet.

the us and israel attacked iran. why now and what comes next? i break down the decision, the risks of escalation, and what to watch.

american and israel military escalation dominance is the most important geopolitical story in the middle east post-october 7. no ability of iran or its proxies to counter strikes against them. and nobody willing or capable to support them outside the region.

assassination of iranian supreme leader is not regime change. we remain far from that, at least for now.

militarily, the americans can act with impunity. globally, there’s no one remotely close. the question isn’t whether they can strike. it’s whether regime change from the air actually works. @gzeromedia.com

new farage foreign policy dropping

cleanup on aisle vp

satellite image shows major damage to supreme leader ali khamenei's compound. unclear if he was there.

iran strikes map tells the story: tehran, karaj, qom, kermanshah, isfahan, shiraz, minab, urmia — all hit.

supportive statement on iran strikes from canada, stronger than president trump would have expected.

major us and israel attacks across iran as expected. unlike regime change in iraq and afghanistan, unilateral in us decision process. no coordination with allies (other than israel), no deterrent effect of adversaries.

the best episode of puppet regime so far… even though it’s not.

gallup shows a watershed: american sympathies now roughly split   palestinians 41% israelis 36%   decades of pro-israel consensus has disappeared

first confirmed net negative migration in the united states since 1935...and it’s not all deportations. americans are leaving in record numbers.

the united states will get the access it wants eventually. the open question is whether the safeguards follow.

senior trump advisers reportedly prefer israel strike iran first, calculating that iranian retaliation would make a us attack more supported by americans. maybe, but most are convinced iran isn't going to retaliate significantly against the americans in any case... www.politico.com/news/2026/02...

trump’s state of the union address celebrated the best economy ever. but growth concentrated at the top isn’t the same as prosperity. @gzeromedia.com

can’t trust pentagon pizza tracker anymore

1.8 million casualties in the four years since russia invaded ukraine, according to ap.

how can we turn down the political temperature? puppets. i talk @gzeromedia.com ’s puppet regime on @abcnewsbot.bsky.social

military strikes on iran increasingly imminent. one more round of talks, no real movement. all the assets in place. hard to see a breakthrough from here. @gzeromedia.com

the supreme court just struck down trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. should come as no surprise.. @gzeromedia.com

a crazy idea from 2017 that proves being a lifelong muppet fan does in fact pay off check out @gzeromedia.com's puppet regime in @nytimes.com

talking through geopolitical uncertainty with @rahmemanuel.bsky.social at @92ndstreety.bsky.social. from tokyo to dc, there’s a lot to unpack. join us: www.92ny.org/event/ian-br...

two conflicts. two stalled negotiations. one impatient white house. the next few weeks could look very different from today. @gzeromedia.com

that's a wrap on munich security conference. not the end of transatlantic alliance, but deep mistrust in evidence everywhere.

munich opened with anxiety. it closed with uncertainty. ukraine still at war. europe still divided. america still dominant. everyone sees the cracks in the transatlantic alliance. no one has a near-term fix. @gzeromedia.com

2026 munich security conference theme: “under destruction.” many europeans believe the destruction is coming from the united states. recognition is step one. acting on it is another matter. @gzeromedia.com

does a tech ceo have more power than a g-20 leader? the answer is changing. i explain w/ philip meissner on what's next

venezuela wasn’t just unstable. it was exporting chaos across south america. that’s why maduro’s removal is widely supported. @gzeromedia.com

rooting for team usa doesn’t require ideological purity. it requires perspective. democracies allow disagreement. authoritarian systems don’t. that’s the real olympic divide. @gzeromedia.com

this isn’t left vs right. it’s rich and powerful vs everyone else. on epstein, that two-tier system is painfully clear. @gzeromedia.com

minneapolis is a warning sign. how the system responds now will say a lot about the future of us democracy. @gzeromedia.com

davos wasn’t about trump’s speech. it was about allies concluding they can’t rely on the united states anymore. that’s not anti-american. it’s strategic reality. @gzeromedia.com

the us is unwilling to lead on the values and policies that it did when it created the postwar order. we’re seeing the impact of that every day here at davos.

fafo or taco. that’s the real test of trump’s foreign policy. countries that can hit back get negotiations. countries that can’t... from davos. @gzeromedia.com

trump doesn’t want bases in greenland. he wants sovereignty. that’s the crisis. @gzeromedia.com

fed independence is a red line. cross it, and inflation, markets, and credibility all suffer. history makes that clear. @gzeromedia.com

iran threatens retaliation. washington doesn’t believe it. after soleimani, after last year’s war, trump sees little risk and little reason to hold back. that’s why escalation looks loud...but limited. @gzeromedia.com

we’re living in the law of the jungle. long term, that’s much better for china than for the united states.

ai eats its users is risk #8 under pressure to generate revenue and justify sky-high valuations, some ai companies will adopt extractive business models that threaten social and political stability.

trump’s action in venezuela a very big deal—but donroe doctrine not (quite) the biggest risk of 2026.

the donroe doctrine. us political revolution. china’s electrostate. this year’s top risks was a big one. a pleasure to join @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social to break the news.

our fourth risk for 2026: europe under siege in france, germany, and the united kingdom, the political center is failing while the european union finds itself between major adversaries: russia and (increasingly) the united states

our number 2 risk might surprise you: overpowered. the defining technologies of the 21st-century economy run on electrons, and that includes ai. china has mastered post carbon tech. the united states is ceding its leadership. in 2026, that divergence will become impossible to ignore.

the number one risk this year is the us political revolution. trump is systematically dismantling checks on his power and weaponizing government against his enemies. (as he and his supporters believe they have weaponized it against him)

top risks 2026 is officially out after 28 years of analyzing geopolitical risks this year is the tipping point:

almost time for @eurasiagroup.net’s #toprisks2026… check back tomorrow morning to find out what made the cut

this monday marks 20 yrs of @eurasiagroup.net's top risks two decades of forecasting the biggest geopolitical risks for the year ahead trust me, 2026 is not one you want to miss.

this isn’t about democracy. it’s about power. @gzeromedia.com