trump is shifting on the core nuclear demand. from total removal of enrichment to possible storage, dilution, or third-country transfer. @gzeromedia.com

ukraine is hitting deeper into russia. putin is threatening “systemic strikes” on kyiv. and the risk of escalation is going up. @gzeromedia.com

talking with @ted.com about how to make sense of the relentless news cycle. no doomscrolling necessary.

trump tore up obama’s iran deal. now any agreement he signs would probably look weaker than the one he abandoned. @gzeromedia.com

ukraine no longer needs the united states  the way it did two years ago. @gzeromedia.com

the biggest takeaway from the trump-xi summit? not much. given the stakes, that's a fine outcome.   @gzeromedia.com

maduro’s removal was the easy part. building a stable venezuela? much harder. @gzeromedia.com

it's the law of the jungle out there. and who better to guide us through it...than david attenborough a happy 100th from all of us at puppet regime!

trump threatened to destroy iran if they didn’t reopen the strait. they didn’t. he didn’t. that changes the negotiation. @gzeromedia.com

us announces “project freedom" and sends destroyers into the strait. iran responds with missiles and drones. that’s not a misunderstanding, that’s strategy. @gzeromedia.com

trump's ‘project freedom’ meant reopening shipping lanes. what it became: mapping mines, avoiding escalation, and asking others to help. @gzeromedia.com

uae is withdrawing from opec. what looks like energy politics is something deeper. a fight over the region’s future. @gzeromedia.com

a thousand ships backed up. months to clear. refineries damaged across the region. this isn’t a quick fix even with a deal. @gzeromedia.com

our first ask ian live. a caller asked if china is shifting from second gear to third. technologically, yes. economically, maybe. militarily, not so much. xi still playing the long game. @gzeromedia.com

a xi-trump meeting is coming. expect yuge pageantry. watch the ask on taiwan. @gzeromedia.com

iran ceasefire holding. for now. talks coming. deal announcement looking reasonably likely. implementation? that's a different matter. @gzeromedia.com

imf and world bank resume relations with venezuela. the economy will substantially improve. the politics a different question.

iran declares strait of hormuz open to commercial traffic — for the duration of the israel-lebanon ceasefire.

great fun to sit down with steven bartlett and talk global risks, the war in iran, the ai revolution and more!

netanyahu survived oct. 7 and engineered one of the greatest political comebacks of the era. he hasn't resolved the central tension: what saved him politically may destroy israel's standing internationally.

trump's net approval ratings on the issues: immigration: -10.4% trade: -22.3% economy: -22.7% inflation: -34.4% immigration helped him win the election. it's the only one still above -15. everything else has collapsed.

the s&p 500 has fully recovered to pre-iran war levels. the strait of hormuz is still effectively closed, disrupting global supply chains. oil is still near $100. inflation just hit a three-year high. the market has decided none of that matters. ai doing a lot of lifting here.

the us is sending 10,000+ more troops to the middle east while simultaneously pursuing ceasefire talks in islamabad. trump clearly wants to announce a quick win and deescalate. but worth remembering that the pentagon is preparing for "the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations."

there is zero excuse for this

the iea at the start of 2026: 2.5 million bpd supply growth projected. the iea today: 1.5 million bpd supply decline. seven weeks of war. the single largest oil supply shock in history.

the imf's worst case scenario for the iran war: oil at $110 this year, $125 next year. inflation hitting 6%. global growth falling below 2%. that would be a global recession — the fifth since 1980.

orbán out after 16 years. not about left vs right. voters rejected corruption and stagnation. a very important signal for europe and for trump’s allies. @gzeromedia.com

this map is the story of the last 25 years of us foreign policy in its own backyard. and that was before the tariffs.

only 12% of europeans polled across six countries see the united states as a close ally. 36% see it as a threat.

57% of republicans under 50 now have an unfavorable view of israel. the generational split inside the gop on israel is now as significant as the partisan split between parties.

the united states has the world's strongest military...and a glass jaw. you don’t want american adversaries — or allies for that matter — feeling that way about the usa.

trump now thinking greenland would have been easier than iran.

hard to see the iran-israel component of a ceasefire holding. whether that breaks the broader us-iran agreement is an open question.

over 250 confirmed dead in lebanon today so far. orders of magnitude bigger than anything we have seen in the past 40 days of israel’s war there.

a two week ceasefire with iran. good news for markets and the global economy. but plenty of ways this could still unravel. @gzeromedia.com

heard at eurasia group

the us spent $921 billion on defense in 2025. proposed 2027 budget: $1.5 trillion.

i’d spend time looking at the insider trading and who benefits financially from all of trump’s wild “i’ll destroy you by x date” and then sudden climb downs. that’s much of the story here.

the unnecessary origin story of trump's nato breakup, in his own words: "it all began with greenland."

while the americans are threatening iran’s obliteration, france scores an iranian diplomacy win.

israel is already hitting more iranian infrastructure—at least ten railroad targets struck today.

it looks bad for the us president to threaten genocide

“there is no longer a nuclear threat from north korea” - donald trump, 2018 could iran be next?

got a policy question for me? i'll be answering your calls tomorrow at 10:30am et for a live “ask ian” call-in show. sign up for the gzero community to join the stream.

viktor orbán has dominated hungarian politics for 16 years. but his veneer of invincibility is cracking. polling shows his opponent may outscore him by 11 points in the upcoming election. @gzeromedia.com

before the war: supplies shipped directly from dubai to port sudan now: trucked through saudi arabia, barged across the red sea. 10 extra days. 25% higher cost. over 19 million sudanese face acute food insecurity.

if the us wants the strait reopened there are only two options: massive escalation or accepting iran’s leverage. @gzeromedia.com

trump's proposed 2027 budget. defense up $440.9 billion. most everything else — health, housing, education, labor, agriculture — cut.

puppet regime has been nominated for a webby award (for comedy, not current affairs...which is probably wrong) if you've watched it, you know why. if you haven't, now's a good time. vote here: vote.webbyawards.com/PublicVoting...

one of the most severe energy security threats in decades and it's day 34.