@eurasiagroup’s #toprisks2026 incoming… check back on monday to see what made the cut (and what didn’t)

putin isn’t negotiating. so far, that strategy is working militarily and diplomatically. here’s what the mar-a-lago meeting tells us about the balance of leverage. @gzeromedia.com

here’s the look back at our 2025 top risks, what held. what broke. and why it matters. @gzeromedia.com

pressure on venezuela is escalating fast. sanctions, seizures, and now a blockade. military strikes surely coming soon... @gzeromedia.com

the most honest account of trump’s second term didn’t come from a critic. it came from his own chief of staff. a must read today. @gzeromedia.com

ukraine now has financing for years. because europe stepped up, not the united states. @gzeromedia.com

notre dame skipped their bowl game. but dominated the day anyway. very on-brand. @gzeromedia.com

trump’s worldview is clear in the new us national security doc: a strong united europe is a threat, not an asset. the kremlin calls the document “aligned” with russian interests. that should make every nato capital sit up straight. @gzeromedia.com

i’d like to be more optimistic on russia/ukraine. i’m not. this “peace plan” is headed nowhere good. @gzeromedia.com

military strikes on venezuela look imminent. no major allies support it. and the risks are substantial. @gzeromedia.com

six months ago, trump’s tariff strategy looked dominant. today, inflation and leverage abroad are forcing retreats. the administration is on weaker footing. @gzeromedia.com

trump embraces a russia friendly (and mostly drafted) 28-point peace plan. ukraine says no deal. the war goes on. @gzeromedia.com

if a bagel shop line feels like communism to you, i promise: you’re going to be okay. @gzeromedia.com

the united states is now the principal driver of geopolitical instability. what does that mean for the world? my take with @gavinnewsom.bsky.social

trump flipped (again!) on releasing the epstein files. but only after losing republicans in the house. classic. @gzeromedia.com

reaction to mamdani’s election have been hysterical. here’s a more sober view.

longest shutdown in us history is about to end. trump calls it a win. democrats divided. the country exhausted. @gzeromedia.com

the russia-ukraine war is nearly four years old. incremental gains for russia. increasing strain for ukraine. europe stays committed. putin digs in. @gzeromedia.com

trump surely wants mamdani to win. not because he agrees with him. but because he wants the fight. @gzeromedia.com

the us economy grew last quarter because of ai. without it, we’d be in recession. @gzeromedia.com

outcome of trump and xi's talks? a truce, not a reset. us–china relations still defined by distrust, decoupling, and ai competition. @gzeromedia.com

we’re in the midst of a political revolution in the united states. can the world figure out how to respond to it?

this week’s trump–xi meeting won’t fix anything. but should stop things from breaking faster. @gzeromedia.com

sometimes politics is symbolism. sometimes it’s corruption. this week, we’ve got both. @gzeromedia.com

historic day in japan. takaichi sanae becomes the country’s first female prime minister. and she’s aligned, politically and personally, with trump. @gzeromedia.com

tune in for my annual state of the world speech live from tokyo:

trump wants tiktok. xi wants pressure on taiwan. they might both get something. @gzeromedia.com

hamas surrendered their only leverage. israel held its fire. two years of war finally stopped, at least for now. @gzeromedia.com

i’m more optimistic about peace than I’ve been at any point in the last two years, but i’ll feel a whole lot better when the remaining hostages return home and a ceasefire is in place.

optimism grows as gaza approaches peace. hurdles remain: hostages, withdrawals, and hamas governance complicate the path forward. let's hope for the best. @gzeromedia.com

middle east peace deal, america’s influence, and how to maintain sanity in our algorithmic age:

musk's netflix uproar over shows hints at deeper ai concerns. if media affects kids, what about ai bots? china sees risks, the us doesn’t. it's time to discuss. @gzeromedia.com

financial support and security from the gulf states. diplomacy from the united states. a leader from the uk. can the latest gaza peace plan actually work?

the us is the world’s strongest petrostate. it’s giving up on post-carbon energy leadership. china thanks you. @gzeromedia.com

we’ve seen a dramatic change on trump’s ukraine view. he's now focused on squeezing putin’s economy and going after anyone buying russian oil. is it enough to end the war? @profgalloway.com

Always good to talk with my Yoda of geopolitics @ianbremmer.com 👇🏻👇🏻

massive killer drone: bad massive killer hat: good

peru’s congress debuts gets new “congresito” mascot 12/10 approve

who americans think is currently the biggest threat to free speech the government: 44% activist groups: 17% social media: 12% universities: 6% corporations: 4% (this number is too low) -yougov

game changer: hungary designates antifa a terrorist organization

how americans feel about abc firing kimmel after his charlie kirk comments: strongly approve: 26% somewhat approve: 9% somewhat disapprove: 8% strongly disapprove: 42% unsure: 16% -yougov

smallish crowd gathered in front of jimmy kimmel’s studio yesterday

moscow continues to make escalatory probes before being kicked out of estonia’s airspace. don’t make the mistake of failing to imagine what could come next.

knowing moscow, the voting will be free and fair

canceling jimmy kimmel wasn't about an offensive line in a monologue... but wielding state power to silence political opposition.

all of these concerns that trump shouldn’t do x or y because democrats will do the same when they are in office presumes some things about the future of the us political system.

following charlie kirk’s shooting, a significant increase in repuilicans’ feelings that the country is going in negative direction in june: 29% now: 51% -ap/norc

the shift from free speech absolutism to blasting the first amendment is giving me whiplash

gazans estimated to have been displaced from gaza city in the past month: > 250,000 - united nations

taliban exerting control over the flow of information in northern afghanistan by shutting the internet off entirely