what if this time trump promises not to kill any iranians involved in negotiations?

gavin newsom signed an executive order banning california state officials from betting on prediction markets using insider information. bipartisan bills in both the house and senate this week. the momentum on this is real and it needs to be.

g7 foreign ministers meeting in france today. on the agenda: stop the war, end iran's nuclear program, reopen the strait of hormuz. also on the agenda, implicitly: explain to allies why the us launched this war without telling them and ask them to help fix it.

new trump deadline just dropped. strait still near completely closed for next two weeks? yes.

trump with second delay on self-imposed deadline…now paused until us troops are expected to arrive in persian gulf.

lukashenko in pyongyang, signing a friendship treaty with kim jong un. trump is considering inviting lukashenko to mar-a-lago.

the oecd on the iran war's economic cost: us inflation jumping to 4.2%. global growth slowing to 2.9%. eurozone growth at 0.8%. and that's before accounting for fertilizer shortages. the food price shock is still coming.

talks going well

if you’re iran right now, you hear lots of president trump talking about negotiations. while you see him 1) trying his hardest to talk down oil prices, 2) getting ground troops in place for phase two of operations.

the stated goal of the iran war: prevent nuclear weapons, protect israel, regime change. what americans care about more: gas prices.

6:49am: sudden spike in oil futures trading. no news. no announcement. nothing public. 7:05am: trump announces a pause on iran strikes. markets move. someone knew. 16 minutes early. $580 million in contracts. the corruption is staggering.

bipartisan legislation introduced to ban members of congress, the president, and senior executive branch officials from trading prediction markets. the right move and long overdue. we already banned it at eurasia group.

the biggest thing about the iran war that’s changed this week is thousands of us soldiers are closer to the persian gulf.

trump’s war in iran isn’t popular. americans didn’t sign up to pay billions and risk troops. @gzeromedia.com

to say iran and the united states are miles apart on their demands is to underestimate the distance between them.

trump backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum. not because the war is over, but because escalation would have blown up the gulf. @gzeromedia.com

the us killed iran's supreme leader and degraded its nuclear program. kim jong un's response: double down on nuclear weapons and call it the "right choice."

reliance bought 5 million barrels of iran crude just after us sanctions were suspended. purchased at a $7 premium (likely $110-120 per barrel, about half a billion dollars). india hasn't openly purchased Iranian crude since 2019.

americans want the war in iran to end as soon as possible.

president trump has backed away from his self-imposed 48 hour deadline on iran. this is to be welcomed. if trump had followed through it would have been a disaster for all sides. as of now, nothing else has changed.

the left-right split in paris isn't new. but this map of the mayoral election is one of the cleanest illustrations of it you'll ever see.

a little something from all of us at ‘ eurasia group…

goldman sachs bets on longer disruptions through strait of hormuz and raises its oil price forecast.

one implication of trump not actually talking with iranian leaders is israel can’t assassinate them to end negotiations.

it takes two (three if you count israel) to taco, strait still likely to remain disrupted...

a few more weeks of this, trump’s going to release the rest of the epstein files to distract from the war in iran.

finally, japan answers america’s call to help open the strait of hormuz

trump often says what he really thinks. and you’d rather he didn’t.

problem: the united states has no near term plan to open the strait

new cover of the economist

americans don't want ground troops in iran

the pentagon wants another $200 billion. three weeks in, the war is getting more expensive not closer to over. @gzeromedia.com

$4+ average gas price coming to the united states imminently.

netanyahu has been pushing for an iran war with every american president for decades. doesn’t make israel responsible for a decision made solely by the us commander in chief.

biden total spend on ukraine: $180 billion the pentagon just asked for $200 billion for war in iran.

i’ve yet to hear a workable near term (next 4-6 weeks) plan for how to open the strait that doesn’t involve us boots on the ground.

us fallen back to democracy levels of the 1960s

russia sending two shipments of oil. and gas to…cuba. will president trump order interdiction? i’d say pretty good chance he will.

whoops, yesterday's false alarm proved premature. trump sharing an article on truth social calling for allies to support the us on opening the strait of hormuz. so much for not needing allies.

consumer sentiment: republicans: 98. overall: 56. democrats: 38. the way people feel about the economy, not quite rationally, has everything to do with who's in the white house.

iranian missile/drone strikes tailed off dramatically after first days of the war. roughly constant over last week plus.

gas prices up 29% in 20 days. sharpest spike since hurricane katrina.

iran exporting more oil now than before the war started. that’s legitimately surprising.

this war isn’t about whether the us can win militarily. it’s about whether the aftermath is manageable. @gzeromedia.com

45 million more people pushed into acute hunger if the iran war lasts through june. the most severe disruption since covid and the ukraine war.

false alarm: us request for allies’ support no longer necessary.

the us diesel average is now above $5 a gallon for only the second time in history.

90% of drinking water in oman, qatar, and kuwait comes from desalination plants. bahrain already had one struck by a drone. jebel ali port — 12 miles from one of the world's largest desalination facilities — has also been hit.

joe kent, director of national counterterrorism center (and strong maga supporter), resigns over iran war.

what i'm hearing from american allies: a level of denial from trump they haven't seen from him before in a major conflict. discussed this and more on msnow with katy tur.