Carnegie Endowment
@carnegieendowment.org
📤 5799
📥 48
📝 833
The Global Think Tank. carnegieendowment.org
France’s contemporary right-wing populism is divided, creating a dynamic of dealignment and making it difficult to identify shared priorities that could support a durable alternative to other parties.
@carnegieeurope.bsky.social
's
@cfieschi.bsky.social
explains:
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The French Far Right’s Foreign Policy: Big Ambitions, Uncertain Direction
The National Rally’s electoral strength, coupled with its internal fragility at a crucial political juncture, contributes to foreign policy vagueness.
https://buff.ly/mgoakEt
about 15 hours ago
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With the unveiling of China’s new Global AI Governance Action Plan, Beijing is signaling its intention to “shape and sustain global AI governance institutions,” says Arindrajit Basu. Full article here:
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China’s Pivot on Global AI
Beijing’s AI diplomacy is pivoting from infrastructure and associated technical standards toward a more comprehensive effort aimed at recrafting global norms and institutions of AI governance.
https://buff.ly/onp1nv9
4 days ago
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African countries are becoming “collateral damage” in the Iran war, writes Frances Z. Brown. That’s going to have big consequences for democracy on the continent. Frances breaks down three key questions to look at going forward, for
@justsecurity.org
:
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The Middle East War Will Reshape Africa’s Democratic Trajectory
Economic fallout from the Iran war will have a major impact on African citizens and the prospects for democracy on the continent.
https://buff.ly/Eu28k9m
4 days ago
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California governor Gavin Newsom just signed an executive order aimed at combatting mass AI-related job displacement. For the context on what experts think of AI's impact on labor (and what lawmakers can do about it) see Teddy Tawil's recent Carnegie paper:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
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The AI Labor Debate: Three Views on the Future of Work
AI could hollow out jobs, reshape them gradually, create entirely new ones—or do all three at once. The case for starting to act now doesn’t depend on knowing which.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/04/the-ai-labor-debate-three-views-on-the-future-of-work
5 days ago
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To the Iranian regime, suffering is an asset, not a liability. The UAE, in contrast, is betting on prosperity. The real question of the Iran war, writes
@ksadjadpour.bsky.social
, is now which vision prevails. More in
@theatlantic.com
:
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
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The Vulture’s Advantage
Iran’s strategy of destruction can’t be allowed to defeat the UAE’s promise of prosperity.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-middle-east-war-trump-uae/687187/
8 days ago
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Russia's latest internet shutdown threw a wrench into daily life for civilians — and cut off the regime's own communications. As other puzzling events emerge from Russia, has Putin lost focus? Alexandra Prokopenko joins Jon Bateman to discuss on The World Unpacked:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OQh...
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Putin Is Losing His Grip on Russia
YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OQhWMn4NGQ
11 days ago
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If public trust functions like an electrical circuit, write Jeffery Marino and Micah Weinberg, “in too many places, for too long, that circuit has been broken.” Jeffery and Micah explain in
@latimes.com
how Engaged California is helping rebuild trust:
www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...
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Contributor: Can California's new online platform help rebuild democracy?
Engaged California asks residents to deliberate on major issues facing the state, weigh in on policy options and create plans of action.
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2026-05-14/can-californias-new-online-platform-help-rebuild-democracy
11 days ago
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India’s population has surged by 1 billion since 1971. Its political map hasn’t changed — despite this year’s attempted reforms. But the debate has been delayed, not resolved.
@louisetillin.bsky.social
,
@milanv.bsky.social
, and Andy Robaina explain:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
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Delimitation After Defeat: India’s Unfinished Debate Over Representation
The battle over representation and regional power has been delayed—not resolved—and will shape the future of India’s federal balance.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/05/india-parliament-lok-sabha-representation-reapportionment-vote-women-elections
12 days ago
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reposted by
Carnegie Endowment
Carnegie India
12 days ago
🌍 New Event 70+ days in, no resolution in sight. The fallout on geopolitics, energy and food is being felt worldwide. Join Carnegie experts from India, the Middle East, Europe and the U.S. for a deep-dive discussion. Register:
carnegieindia.org/india/events...
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AI will be on the agenda for this week’s Trump-Xi summit. Previous dialogues on AI between the two countries failed to deliver meaningful progress – but much has changed. Scott Singer discusses possible avenues for progress:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
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Trump and Xi Should Tackle a Previously Impossible AI Conversation
Previous dialogues ended in failure. This time could be different.
https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/05/trump-xi-ai-safety-dialogue
13 days ago
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The Saudi monarchy seems to be rolling back – or outright abandoning – some of its most ambitious projects. Unless the state can ease up on repression at home, Vision 2030 risks stalling in the home stretch.
@andrewleber.bsky.social
explains:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
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The Iran War Isn’t the Only Challenge Facing Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030
As the monarchy appears to question its grandest projects, the state could do with more critical debate than rote cheerleading.
https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/05/saudi-arabia-vision-2030-iran-war-challenge-debate?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=vision2030
18 days ago
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The Trump administration has already attacked two countries: Iran and Venezuela. Trump himself has warned that Cuba is “next.”
@javiercorrales.bsky.social
briefs Jon Bateman on what we need to know on today’s World Unpacked:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p5x...
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What to Know Before Trump Attacks Cuba
YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p5xiQKQfHk
18 days ago
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Pakistan’s leadership is betting on international legitimacy, hoping that high-profile global moves will translate to stability at home. That approach depends on the regime’s ability to overcome big challenges.
@zohawaseem.bsky.social
& Yasser Kureshi explain:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
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Pakistan’s Military Consolidation Under Munir Faces Critical Challenges
The regime bets that international legitimacy can be translated into domestic stability. But that depends upon whether it can leverage international goodwill to manage grievances and the economy at ho...
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/05/pakistans-military-consolidation-under-munir-faces-critical-challenges?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=pakistanmilitary
21 days ago
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“Tehran wagered that Washington had underestimated it, and that surviving the conflict would strengthen rather than weaken its hand.”
@jdmenton.bsky.social
and Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar unpacked why Iran may be able to rebuild its nuclear program:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
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Two Wars Later, Iran’s Nuclear Question Is Still on the Table
Tehran may conclude that its ability to disrupt the global economy via the Strait of Hormuz provides enough deterrence to begin quietly rebuilding its nuclear program.
https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/05/iran-nuclear-program-progress-deal
22 days ago
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What’s the best way to assess a nation’s power? Quantitative rankings can be misleading, says
@nickkitchen.bsky.social
. See the first paper in Carnegie’s new Future of American Power project for what analysts can turn to instead:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
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Methods of National Power Analysis: Pitfalls and Best Practices
Power assessments shape our perceptions of the limits of the possible, but quantitative rankings and dashboards can provide false confidence.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/04/methods-of-national-power-analysis-pitfalls-and-best-practices
25 days ago
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China has likely almost tripled its stockpile of nuclear warheads since 2019. It’s not slowing down. And the U.S. is taking notice. Are the two countries on a road to nuclear disaster?
@tongzhao.bsky.social
unpacks, for
@foreignaffairs.com
:
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
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China and America Are Courting Nuclear Catastrophe
The consequences of Beijing’s weapons buildup.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-and-america-are-courting-nuclear-catastrophe
25 days ago
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In starting a war in search of “quick wins and easy results,” says Aaron David Miller, President Trump may have gotten the U.S. into an intractable conflict. Aaron breaks down five inconvenient realities of the Iran war, for
@foreignpolicy.com
:
foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/01/t...
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Why Trump Might Come to Regret the Iran War
He hoped it would be transformational; instead, it’s just one more round in the conflict.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/01/trump-iran-war-regret-cease-fire/
25 days ago
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As AI bots swarm the Internet, crowding out human users, are we headed toward a fundamentally broken online future? Nick Pickles joins Jon Bateman on today's World Unpacked to discuss this question -- and what we can do about it:
youtu.be/xCMvIT1AMbE?...
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Can This Orb Kill AI Bots?
YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment
https://youtu.be/xCMvIT1AMbE?si=QK1LHI4TkoSR7k-8
25 days ago
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Russia’s Vladimir Putin has the motive and the strength required to make a new invasion not just possible, but “plausible,” says
@alexgabuev.bsky.social
. Unless NATO countries can “get their act together,” they’re vulnerable. More in
@nytimes.com
:
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/29/o...
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Opinion | I Played Putin in a War Game. The Most Dangerous Period May Be Coming.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/29/opinion/international-world/putin-russia-nato-attack.html
27 days ago
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President Trump’s foreign policy reflects a profoundly broken decisionmaking process. But it’s not too late for the next president to turn things around. Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer explain:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
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Trump’s National Security Decisionmaking Is Broken
Here’s why—and what the next president needs to do to fix the process.
https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/04/iran-war-broken-us-foreign-policy
28 days ago
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Yesterday was 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster. As Russia continues to fire drones nearby – including a particularly devastating strike this weekend – could history repeat itself?
@coreyah.bsky.social
weighed in, for
@morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social
:
www.ms.now/morning-joe/...
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Marking 40 years since the Chernobyl disaster
VP for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Corey Hinderstein, joins Morning Joe to discuss the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl.
https://www.ms.now/morning-joe/watch/marking-40-years-since-the-chernobyl-disaster-2497912387530
29 days ago
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The shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner is the latest example of violence in the U.S.’s increasingly volatile political climate. What does the research say about polarization and violence?
@rachelkleinfeld.bsky.social
explained in a 2023 paper:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
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Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says
What can be done about polarization in the United States? Reviewing a decade of research reveals unexpected findings.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/09/polarization-democracy-and-political-violence-in-the-united-states-what-the-research-says
29 days ago
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Even if the Iran war ends tomorrow, the economic and humanitarian consequences will continue, says Sarah Yerkes: “This is not something that’s going to be easily or cleanly wrapped up in a day, or a week, or a month.” More from Sarah on
@bloomberg.com
:
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Watch US Demands Unclear: Carnegie Endowment's Yerkes - Bloomberg
Sarah Yerkes, the Senior Fellow at the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment, says the US-Iran conflict may continue to play out over several months, while the fundamental strategic goals of…
https://buff.ly/jdeklox
about 1 month ago
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The shocks of the Iran war could allow Gulf monarchies to accelerate their ongoing reforms and build greater resilience—but this will require difficult, sustained policy choices. Frederic Wehrey and Charles Johnson outline what needs to change:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
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The Iran War Is a Stress Test for Gulf States
The conflict is exposing the flaws and fissures of their domestic governance and social cohesion.
https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/04/iran-war-stress-test-gulf-states
about 1 month ago
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In transforming both industry and politics, Elon Musk is practicing a new form of capitalism, write
@quinnslobodian.com
and
@bentarnoff.com
. They joined Jon Bateman to discuss the politics of technocracy (and their new book, Muskism: A Guide for the Perplexed):
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HacZ...
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Elon Musk Is Reinventing Capitalism
YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HacZjJkHqQQ
about 1 month ago
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The war in Ukraine will almost certainly lead to a weaker Russia: “It’s hard to see how Russia will come out of it stronger and better off than it was before the war.” Eugene Rumer joined
@news.dw.com
to unpack what this means:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=w63t...
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Europe's new Iron Curtain: An end to the war in Ukraine | DW News
YouTube video by DW News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w63tBjKMki4
about 1 month ago
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In the face of rising climate-related health risks, what lessons can be drawn from the successes and failures of the Office of Climate Change and Health Equity and what comes next?
carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
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Advancing Climate Health for Vulnerable Groups in the United States: Looking Back and Looking Ahead
Present and future policymakers seeking to address climate-related health challenges can draw lessons from the successes and failures of the Biden administration.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/research/2026/04/healthcare-climate-emissions-biden-ocche-decarbonization
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
Carnegie Endowment
Carnegie Russia Eurasia
about 1 month ago
EVENT | Chernobyl's Legacy 40 Years On Join us May 7th for a discussion with Adam Higginbotham, Mariana Budjeryn, and Carnegie's Corey Hinderstein. Ukraine's Ambassador to the U.S. Olga Stefanishyna will deliver opening remarks. RSVP:
carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/...
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Chernobyl’s Legacy 40 Years On
To explore Chernobyl’s enduring legacy, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace invites you for a panel discussion with Adam Higginbotham, Mariana Budjeryn, and Corey Hinderstein, moderated by ...
https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/04/chernobyls-legacy-40-years-on
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reposted by
Carnegie Endowment
America at a Crossroads
about 1 month ago
Thanks Aaron David Miller for joining us alongside Patt Morrison last night. In case you missed it, the recording is now LIVE on YouTube and our podcast platforms:
youtu.be/LJRKJArmd80
www.buzzsprout.com/1928276/epis...
@carnegieendowment.org
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Aaron David Miller with Patt Morrison | America at a Crossroads
War Making and Peacemaking: The Future of the US-Israeli Relationship Featuring Aaron David Miller in conversation with Patt Morrison America is at a pivotal crossroads. Join us for a timely and…
https://youtu.be/LJRKJArmd80
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As the impacts of climate change intensify, the case for decisive action on climate and health becomes increasingly clear. @noah_gordon, Jenny Keroack, @drjbalbus, @cjmccannon, and Lauren Jensen discuss:
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2026/0...
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What We Lost When Washington Walked Away From Climate-Health Efforts
Our new report offers a path forward for local officials and future policymakers.
https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2026/04/climate-change-health-policy-hhs-going-forward
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
Carnegie Endowment
Oona Hathaway
about 1 month ago
I enjoyed this conversation about international law and why and how it matters—today more than ever. Take a listen:
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
Carnegie Endowment
Carnegie Politika
about 1 month ago
Although Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil infrastructure have led to a noticeable decline in the physical volume of Russian oil exports, the rise in prices has more than made up for it, argues Sergey Vakulenko:
carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
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What’s Having More Impact on Russian Oil Export Revenues: Ukrainian Strikes or Rising Prices?
Although Ukrainian strikes have led to a noticeable decline in the physical volume of Russian oil exports, the rise in prices has more than made up for it.
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/04/russia-oil-gains-losses?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social
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reposted by
Carnegie Endowment
Stephen Wertheim
about 1 month ago
Today at 2 pm: "Grand Strategy Implications of Trump's Iran Debacle: Is This the End of Primacy?" Looking forward to sharing thoughts with Monica Duffy Toft,
@stephenwalt.bsky.social
, and
@tparsi.bsky.social
in a live
@quincyinst.bsky.social
event:
quincyinst.org/events/grand...
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Grand Strategy Implications of Trump’s Iran Debacle: Is This the End of Primacy?
What does the Iran War mean for the future of American foreign policy?
https://quincyinst.org/events/grand-strategy-implications-of-trumps-iran-debacle-is-this-the-end-of-primacy/
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reposted by
Carnegie Endowment
Ankit Panda
about 1 month ago
In a new essay for
@warontherocks.bsky.social
, Andrew Reddie and I look at recent coverage of nuclear wargaming involving LLMs. We assess 1) what wargaming is best used for, 2) why LLMs are trigger-happy, and 3) how AI can fit into the wargaming stack.
warontherocks.com/im-sorry-dav...
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I’m Sorry, Dave. I’m Afraid I Can’t De-escalate: On (AI) Wargaming and Nuclear War
Recent experiments placing large language models in simulated nuclear crises have produced alarming headlines. “Bloodthirsty” AI systems escalate
https://warontherocks.com/im-sorry-dave-im-afraid-i-cant-de-escalate-on-ai-wargaming-and-nuclear-war/
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AI often sparks concerns, but it also holds real promise for strengthening democracy. In California, new experiments are using AI to give citizens a more meaningful voice in government. Micah Weinberg breaks down how these innovations work.
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2026/0...
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California Sees Ways AI Can Support Policymaking. Here’s What It Needs to Succeed.
For AI to capture the public’s policy concerns, people need to know that the models are elevating human concerns in human words, not generating their own.
https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2026/03/california-ai-sb-1159
about 1 month ago
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Poland and Ukraine share geopolitical and economic interests, cultural affinities, and a history of subjugation by Russia. Can they leverage these ties to create a strategic partnership? More from Eric Green:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
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Kindred Nations, Uneasy Neighbors: Polish-Ukrainian Relations in the Crucible of Russia’s War
The full-scale invasion cemented Ukraine’s determination to sever its ties with Russia; reimagining the Poland-Ukraine partnership can accelerate Kyiv’s westward alignment and improve the security of ...
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/04/kindred-nations-uneasy-neighbors-polish-ukrainian-relations-in-the-crucible-of-russias-war
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
Carnegie Endowment
Carnegie Russia Eurasia
about 1 month ago
In Ukraine, drones have become “a standard instrument of warfare.” The consequences will shape conflicts far beyond Europe.
@andriypzag.bsky.social
on how Ukraine is driving doctrinal change in modern warfare:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
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The New Revolution in Military Affairs
How Ukraine is driving doctrinal change in modern warfare.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/04/ukraine-russia-war-changing-warfare-practice-military-strategy
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In its commitment to a worldview governed by domination, the Trump administration echoes – intentionally or otherwise – lessons from ancient history. It’s getting those lessons wrong. Stewart Patrick explains for
@nytimes.com
:
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/19/o...
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Opinion | The Warmongers Are Getting History All Wrong
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/19/opinion/trump-war-thucydides.html
about 1 month ago
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🧵 Russia’s Vladimir Putin faces enormous challenges, from ongoing war in Ukraine to an economy in shambles. But it's a mistake to write him off – in fact, these challenges make him more dangerous than ever.
about 1 month ago
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As climate disasters intensify across the U.S., more people are being displaced—but without formal recognition, access to resources remains limited.
@kayly.bsky.social
examines the potential for new policy pathways:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
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The United States Has an Internal Displacement Problem
By reorganizing federal disaster policy around the rights of displaced people, the United States could unlock additional federal resources, accelerate the rebuilding of lives and livelihoods, and redu...
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/04/united-states-internally-displaced-people-idp-rights
about 1 month ago
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Viktor Orbán's historic loss in Hungary is a blow to his party -- and, potentially, to other movements in the global far right that used his success as a model. Thomas Carothers joins Jon Bateman to discuss on today's World Unpacked:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_vO...
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Why Orbán Lost and What Happens Next
YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_vOJhIJJ80
about 1 month ago
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With this past weekend’s historic elections, Hungary has gone from being “a very good bad example” of democratic backsliding to a potential model for democratic resilience. Dan Baer unpacked this transformation, with
@ari-shapiro.bsky.social
:
substack.com/home/post/p-...
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Lessons for the US from Hungary’s elections
Ambassador Dan Baer on the fall of Victor Orbán and what comes next
https://substack.com/home/post/p-194073375
about 1 month ago
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Hungary's Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party suffered a landslide defeat in elections this weekend, ending his 16 years as the country's Prime Minister. How did we get here, and why is it so important? Thomas Carothers explained.
about 1 month ago
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Hungary’s Viktor Orbán suffered “a crushing, historic defeat” in this weekend’s elections. How did his party, despite efforts to tilt the election in its favor, lose? And what are the lessons for the U.S.? Tom Carothers explains for
@foreignpolicy.com
:
foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/12/w...
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Why Viktor Orban's Fidesz Party Lost
The opposition’s stunning victory offers lessons for U.S. Democrats—and a warning for Trump’s allies.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/12/why-viktor-orbans-fidesz-party-lost/
about 1 month ago
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The Artemis II crew splashes down to Earth tonight. But NASA missions aren't the only things getting attention in space.
@nktpnd.bsky.social
joins Noah Tan to unpack the concept of nuclear weapons in space (and why it's a bad idea).
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about 2 months ago
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Think tanks shape policy through research. But in an era where facts-based expertise seems to matter less and less, what role can (or should) these institutions play? Carnegie president Tino Cuéllar discusses with Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Vzq...
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Why Do We Have a Crisis of Truth and Trust?
YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VzqrYco1pA
about 2 months ago
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This week’s ceasefire in Iran is a far cry from a quick solution to the conflict. Amr Hamzawy,
@andrewleber.bsky.social
,
@ericlob.bsky.social
, and Marwan Muasher unpacked regional reactions, steps forward, and multiple major sticking points:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
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https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/04/iran-ceasefire-problems-reactions-lebanon-hormuz
about 2 months ago
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Keeping adversaries guessing can be an effective foreign policy strategy, but only if it’s balanced with diplomacy. By pairing unpredictability with aggression, President Trump has unsettled allies in Europe. Dan Baer and
@erikbrown.bsky.social
explain:
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
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Unstrategic Ambiguity: Trump’s Erratic Approach Leaves Europe Guessing
The behaviors, public statements, and policies of Donald Trump’s administration have perverted America’s strategic posture toward Europe.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2026/04/unstrategic-ambiguity-trumps-erratic-approach-leaves-europe-guessing
about 2 months ago
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The ceasefire in Iran appears to be a step forward, but it hasn't brought the war to a close.
@andrewleber.bsky.social
weighed in.
about 2 months ago
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President Trump's threats to Iran this morning open the door to potential violations of the Geneva Conventions. Stewart Patrick weighed in.
about 2 months ago
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