Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East allows Moscow to both increase its influence in Tehran and continue to enjoy the financial windfall of higher oil prices, argues Nikita Smagin: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"If it proves impossible for the Russian authorities to avoid a gasoline deficit, the question then becomes how they will organize the distribution of a scarce resource." Read Sergey Vakulenko's article here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Russia's ruling elite is a community of managers who are not subject to competition or public accountability. And the state is becoming an operating apparatus without any internal autonomy, argues Alexandra Prokopenko in her new paper.

"The issue is not that Putin only has selective information at his disposal, but that the decision-making process consists of one person with an unshakeable vision of how the world works." Read Tatiana Stanovaya's insight here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"By fueling the arguments of both supporters and opponents of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan wants to ensure he is re-elected with a weaker mandate." Read Bashir Kitachaev's analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

A high-profile disagreement over internet restrictions in Russia was never an existential threat to Putin—it was about elite groups protecting their interests, writes Alexandra Prokopenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

By reminding the world that Lukashenko is a threat to NATO and Ukraine, Kyiv is trying to return the focus to why the Belarusian regime needs to be contained rather than rewarded, argues Artyom Shraibman: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"The demands of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, demographic problems, and public hostility toward Central Asians mean Russia does not have enough workers." Read Salavat Abylkalikov's analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

“The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement with Russia, but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe Shinzo. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.” Read James D.J. Brown’s analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

With no key agreement signed on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, the window of opportunity for Russia may close if Chinese power generation becomes so green that new gas sources are no longer of any interest to Beijing, writes @alexgabuev.bsky.social: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Though Orban is gone, Putin can still count on some like-minded individuals in Central and Eastern Europe. However, they will seek to avoid open confrontation with EU institutions over Ukraine and their ties with Moscow, argues @dimitarbechev.bsky.social: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Putin’s visit to Beijing, how China is navigating its relationship with Russia, and why there is still no deal on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline: don't miss the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Yanmei Xie.

Azerbaijan’s relations with the EU appear to be going from strength to strength after a deep freeze following the military escalation in Karabakh in 2023 and Azerbaijan’s bitter fallout with several EU countries, writes Shujaat Ahmadzada.

Governments in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania want to ensure that a U.S. military withdrawal would not leave them dangerously exposed to a Russian attack, argues Sergejs Potapkins.

Is Tokyo ready to bring relations with Moscow out of the deep freeze and start buying Russian oil—or are these just rumors once again? Read Vladislav Pashchenko's new article.

In Russia, the costs of air defense are being spread across the balance sheets of companies and regional governments, and have become an unregistered tax on revenue for businesses, argues Alexandra Prokopenko.

Baku’s backing for Ukraine is less about confronting Russia than about quietly broadening the mix of partners upon which it relies, argues Zaur Shiriyev.

Something in the air has changed in Russia, and the Russian regime is now visibly motivated by fear, writes Alexander Baunov.

How might Russia potentially attack NATO territory, and how would the alliance react? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast with Alexander Gabuev, Carolina Drüten, and Joseph Verbovszky.

The return of parliamentary politics in Ukraine reflects a shift from earlier expectations of a settlement and elections toward the reality of a prolonged war, argues Balázs Jarábik. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Armenia’s pro-Russia opposition is unlikely to be able to channel frustration with Pashinyan and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh into an electoral victory. Read Mikayel Zolyan's analysis here:

Moscow is providing drones and battlefield intelligence to Iran in an attempt to avoid a dangerous precedent in which it is squeezed out of Iran by the U.S. and Israel with no consequences, writes Nikita Smagin.

🎙️ PODCAST: @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Maksim Samorukov, and Balázs Jarábik discussed the changing tides in Europe after Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary and Rumen Radev’s win in Bulgaria and what they mean for Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Although Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil infrastructure have led to a noticeable decline in the physical volume of Russian oil exports, the rise in prices has more than made up for it, argues Sergey Vakulenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"After four years of war, there is no one who can stand up to the security establishment, and President Vladimir Putin is increasingly passive." Tatiana Stanovaya on tensions within the Russian regime.

"The prospect of a total block on Russia’s most popular messaging app, Telegram, has sparked disagreement between the regime’s political managers and its security agencies." Read Andrey Pertsev's analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Orbán created an image for himself as virtually the only opponent of aid to Ukraine in the entire EU. But in reality, he was simply willing to use his veto to absorb the backlash, allowing other opponents to remain in the shadows, argues Maksim Samorukov.

Despite having the resources and expertise, the Russian space industry missed the opportunity to offer the United States or China a mutually rewarding partnership in the new lunar race, writes Georgy Trishkin: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

What are the prospects for renewed strategic arms control between the United States and Russia? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode, with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Rose Gottemoeller.

Metropolitan Shio, the front-runner to succeed Ilia II as head of the Georgian Orthodox Church, is prone to harsh anti-Western rhetoric, which raises fears that the GOC will become an instrument of ultraconservative ideology, writes Bashir Kitachaev: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"Lukashenko knows that the clock is ticking: he must squeeze as much out of the Trump administration as he can before U.S. congressional elections in November," writes Artyom Shraibman of the ever-intensifying dialogue between Minsk and Washington: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moldova’s new reintegration plan was drawn up to demonstrate to Brussels that Chișinău is serious about the Transnistria issue—and to get the West to react, Vladimir Solovyov argues in his article: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

What are the risks and opportunities for Central Asia from the Iran war? How is the region navigating Trump’s volatility? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @tumarov.bsky.social here:

"The Kremlin expects to not only profit from rising fertilizer prices, but also exact revenge for the collapse of the 2023 grain deal." Read Alexandra Prokopenko’s analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"Talankin and Borenstein’s Oscar-winning film “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” is a unique inside look at a regime that threatens the world and has killed thousands of people in its neighboring country." Read Ekaterina Barabash's review here:

"The history of Telegram’s relations with the Russian state offers a salutary lesson for international platforms that believe they can reach a compromise with the Kremlin." Maria Kolomychenko looks at the blocking of Russia's main messaging app.

Moscow is the major beneficiary from the disruption that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is causing to global energy trade, argues Sergey Vakulenko.

How should you interpret Putin’s reaction to Khamenei’s killing? Does Putin really fear Trump? And what’s the state of Russia-Ukraine negotiations? Find the answers in a new video interview with Alexander Baunov:

"The current U.S. indifference to human rights means Astana no longer has any incentive to refuse extradition requests from its authoritarian neighbors—including Russia." Temur Umarov on the deportation of political activists from Kazakhstan:

"It’s disingenuous to criticize a film for simplifying Russia’s complexities when Russia is waging a brutally simple war of aggression against its neighbor," Alexander Baunov answers the critics of the Oscar-winning film “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”.

🎧 NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social, and Sergey Vakulenko discuss what the war in Iran means for Moscow. How does it affect Russian influence in the region, and its position on global energy markets?

With the White House only interested in economic dealmaking, Georgia finds itself eclipsed by what Armenia and Azerbaijan can offer, argues Bashir Kitachaev on the current state of U.S.-Georgia relations.

"Most of Moscow’s military resources are tied up in Ukraine, while Beijing’s foreign policy prioritizes economic ties and avoids direct conflict." Alexander Gabuev and Temur Umarov explain why neither Russia nor China has offered any tangible support to Iran.

"If the regime in Tehran survives, it could be obliged to hand Moscow significant political influence in exchange for supplies of weapons and humanitarian aid." Read Nikita Smagin's analysis:

"For the Kremlin, showing too much support for Iran would be to openly side with Trump’s enemies, thereby risking incurring his wrath and becoming a party in a conflict against the United States." Read Alexander Baunov's latest in @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/04/p...

The interventions in Iran and Venezuela are in keeping with Trump’s strategy of containing China, but also strengthen the position of Russia, which is ready to increase oil exports to China, writes Mikhail Korostikov.

“Disillusioned with the West over Gaza, Arab countries are not only trading more with Russia; they are also more willing to criticize Kyiv.” Ruslan Suleymanov on the Arab world’s shift on the war in Ukraine.

The use of technology to mobilize Russians to vote—a system tied to the relative material well-being of the electorate, its high dependence on the state, and a far-reaching system of digital control—is breaking down, argues Andrey Pertsev:

“While the United States and Israel are starting another military intervention against Iran, Russia is increasing arms supplies to the isolated Islamic nation.” Read Nikita Smagin’s analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"Putin is stalling, waiting for a breakthrough at the front or a grand bargain in which Trump will give him something more than Ukraine in exchange for concessions on Ukraine. If that doesn’t happen, the conflict could be expanded beyond Ukraine."—Alexander Baunov: