Water shortages in Central Asia will worsen significantly when Afghanistan completes a canal diverting substantial volumes of water from the Amu Darya River. And it could escalate regional tensions, writes Galiya Ibragimova. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time, argues Sergey Vakulenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The painless return of Russia’s fully militarized economy to a civilian model is impossible: no amount of fortune can override the laws of economics, argues Alexandra Prokopenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"Should PAS fall short of an outright majority, political instability would likely follow. Potential coalition partners are considered unreliable, leaving any post-election alliance prone to collapse." Balazs Jarabik on Moldova's upcoming vote: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Russian drones crossing Belarus’s western border in one direction while a U.S. delegation entered from the other direction on the same day illustrates how little control Lukashenko has over his mission of ending his isolation, writes Artyom Shraibman: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the U.S. is ready to invest to make it stick, argues Olesya Vartanyan: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"The Kremlin never stopped believing Parubiy was the enemy. Even if the reality is that there has been a generational shift in Ukrainian politics, the Kremlin remains stuck in the past." Konstantin Skorkin on the assassination of a Euromaidan leader: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

While the West is using customs duties to try to head off an influx of Chinese electric cars, the countries of Central Asia are doing everything they can to welcome them. Temur Umarov and Roman Vakulchuk assess the consequences for the region: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The emergence of Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov as the frontrunner to head Russia’s Supreme Court heralds little legal change, but does shed light on Kremlin priorities. Read Vladislav Gorin's article: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"After last week’s events in China, it will be Trump, not Putin, who has to try to prove that he is not the one facing international isolation," argues Alexander Baunov in his latest article: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Putin is no pragmatic decision-maker, and the deepening vassalage to China is his own choice. America’s chances of reversing this trend remain elusive, and recent tariffs against India may only push Putin closer into Xi’s embrace, writes Alexander Gabuev: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Back in the spring, the Syrian authorities were trying to push Russia out of the country. Now they are prepared to consider expanding the Russian presence to counterbalance Israel’s interventions, argues Nikita Smagin: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @radchenko.bsky.social discuss Sino-Russian relations in the past and present, and examine how strong the bond really is between the two.

"[Drone] damage to Russian refineries has helped send gasoline prices to multi-year highs, but the government has options to mitigate the shortages." Read Sergey Vakulenko's analysis of the gasoline crisis in Russia: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The Alaska summit and Trump's meeting with Zelensky and European leaders have given new hope for an end to the war. But we can talk about only tactical successes, but strategically, there are only more losses in store, argues Tatiana Stanovaya: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"Linking a ceasefire to a comprehensive peace treaty creates a possible opening, but it could also mean that Ukraine becomes a hostage for extracting concessions from Western countries." Alexander Baunov on the key outcome of the Trump-Putin summit: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

What is the significance of Kadyrov's son's lavish wedding in terms of a possible power transition in Chechnya? Read Vadim Dubnov's analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Merz's first trip to Washington has intensified expectations that Germany will take a leading role in Europe’s defense against Russian aggression. Yet shifting geopolitical realities threaten to undermine his ambitions, writes Friedrich Conradi: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

HIV is decreasing across the world—but not in Russia. The reasons are purely political, argues Andrey Shashkov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Putin’s first deputy chief of staff Sergei Kiriyenko is now in charge not only of Russian domestic policy, but part of foreign policy too: namely, Russia’s relations with some former Soviet states. Andrey Pertsev analyzes the implications: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Ukraine has a new prime minister for the first time in five years. During this times, however, the Ukrainian system of power has transformed so much that the name of the prime minister is no longer as important as it once was, argues Konstantin Skorkin.

"Since the start of the war in 2022, the number of sins considered 'unforgivable' by the Kremlin has grown to include anything seen as helping the enemy." Read Tatiana Stanovaya's article on the apparent suicide of Russia’s transport minister: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Is PAS, Moldova's ruling party, managing to implement its electoral promises—and what should we expect from this year's parliamentary elections? Read Vladimir Solovyov's analysis: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

In recent years, Turkmenistan has been ruled by the father-and-son tandem of Gurbanguly and Serdar Berdymukhamedov, but now it has become a triumvirate with Serdar's sister, Oguljahan Atabayeva. Galiya Ibragimova explains why and what it means: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Armenia is intensifying its diplomatic outreach to Türkiye, betting that improved ties could either unlock a peace deal with Azerbaijan or at least help prevent military flare-up along its borders, analyzes Olesya Vartanyan: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"Amid the Ukraine conflict, the Kremlin has passed anti-LGBTQ+ legislation and ramped up censorship, but criminal cases are rare, and indiscriminate persecution is unlikely." Andrey Shashkov about the repression of LGBTQ+ people in Russia: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Join Shaun Walker, author of The Illegals, & David Hoffman as they delve into the world of Russia’s sleeper agents and what this secret history reveals about the enduring ambitions and risk appetite of Putin’s security apparatus. Register here: carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/...

"Lukashenko is trying to squeeze the most out of the prospect of peace talks for as long as he can, and for the first time in a long while, Washington is prepared to play along." Read Artyom Shraibman's analysis of Keith Kellogg's weekend visit to Belarus.

Since full EU membership for Georgia is hardly imminent, the country's government can afford to prioritize a bid to strengthen its domestic authority over standards proclaimed from Brussels, writes Bashir Kitachaev: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social, and Arkady Mil-Man discuss the fate of Russian influence in the Middle East amid the Israel-Iran conflict: carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

"The conflict between Israel and Iran will likely bring Russia more cash from soaring oil prices, but does not change the fact that another of Moscow’s close allies appears to be collapsing." Read Nikita Smagin's analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The lifting of Western sanctions makes cooperation with Moscow even more problematic for Damascus, since Russia itself remains heavily sanctioned, writes Nikita Smagin: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moscow and Minsk may not have reached the stage of planning a single monetary policy, but previously the regulators were at least still on the same page. Now they are on different chapters altogether, argues Olga Loiko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moscow could compensate for “nuclear losses” to its aviation by strengthening other elements of its nuclear triad, meaning there is a risk of strategic uncertainty emerging over the development trajectory of Russia’s nuclear forces, writes Maxim Starchak: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The Russian memorandum recently handed to Ukraine at peace negotiations was crafted to satisfy Washington, create an illusion of progress—and allow Moscow to continue fighting, explains Alexander Baunov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The prospect of an open-ended military standoff between Russia and Europe raises the likelihood that Moscow might use Belarus to stage increasingly dangerous provocations. Artyom Shraibman explores the possible scenarios in his latest article: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Why did Rashad Al-Alimi, head of Yemen's internationally recognized government, hold talks with Putin last week, and does Russia have any real influence over the conflict in Yemen? Read Ruslan Suleymanov's analysis: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

“A rebranded opposition & U.S. foreign policy are creating headwinds for Moldova's pro-EU parties ahead of September elections.” Galiya Ibragimova asks how it will impact Moldovan politics if Moscow ends up as Washington’s partner rather than adversary: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

In recent months, there has been much talk about the reanimation of domestic politics in Ukraine. Konstantin Skorkin examines whether Ukraine's popular military intelligence agency head Kyrylo Budanov could become a political rival for President Zelensky: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"Moscow isn’t thrilled by the prospect of sanctions against Iran being lifted, but if a new nuclear deal is inevitable, then the Kremlin is prepared to play an active role in it." Nikita Smagin on the dynamics of the US-Iran-Russia triangle: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

How can European and Asian democracies better prepare to manage the challenge posed by a rogue Russia? Join tomorrow's online discussion with @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Yuichi Hosoya, @sabfis3.bsky.social, and @maxseddon.bsky.social: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOJw...

What will happen to Ukraine when the guns finally fall silent? Many believe Ukraine's future depends on two people—Trump and Putin—but it also depends on the relationship that Ukraine and Europe forge with one another, argues @dimitarbechev.bsky.social: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Gazprom is using its oil arm to cover the deficit between operating and investment cash flows. But there is still not enough revenue to finance its entire ambitious investment program. Sergey Vakulenko on the state gas giant's losses and profits: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moscow’s chief desire is to sit down with the Americans at a senior level and discuss global problems, with Ukraine reduced to just one subplot—and ideally absent from the table altogether, writes Alexander Baunov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

“Not only could Russia pick up some of the slack following a collapse in U.S.-China economic ties, it could also expect to forge closer relations with Beijing.” Mikhail Korostikov on Russia's opportunities amid the U.S.-China confrontation: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

How did the memorial aspect of Russia's Victory Day public holiday become overshadowed by militarism and belligerent slogans, and is it all about Putin these days? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Arkady Ostrovsky:

"The differences between Moscow and the Vatican have been laid bare in recent years by the war in Ukraine and the ideological convictions of Pope Francis." Ksenia Luchenko delves into the future of Catholic-Orthodox Church relations: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"While informal diplomacy helps the Kremlin to be more nimble, in the long term it risks undermining Russia’s reliability as an international partner." Andrey Pertsev on Putin's proxy diplomats: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social on the state of Ukrainian and Russian forces in terms of manpower, equipment, and tactics—and the potential scenarios for the 2025 campaign.

Putin clearly hasn’t decided whether to ditch Trump and his attempts to bring the war to an end, or whether to keep trying to manipulate the U.S. president, argues Alexander Baunov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...