🎙️🎚️‼️ Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social! open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @radchenko.bsky.social discuss Sino-Russian relations in the past and present, and examine how strong the bond really is between the two.

At the summit in Alaska, Putin “matched Trump’s performative diplomacy with performative negotiations”—and essentially manipulated Washington into believing that Moscow was making serious concessions, writes @alexgabuev.bsky.social.

"Russia is playing Trump for time. But despite the country’s confidence, it’s not clear that Putin has a realistic contingency plan should Kyiv prove able to hold on." Some insights in @foreignaffairs.com on the Kremlin's gameplan post-Alaska. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...

"Continuing the war remains Putin’s only source of leverage to secure a desirable outcome, and he is unlikely to surrender this tool. The grim reality is that the talks will be accompanied by ongoing fighting." Some thoughts in @financialtimes.com. on.ft.com/46ZHhOh

How is Russia reacting to the ongoing Israel-Iran war, what's at stake for the Kremlin, and what's Putin's gameplan? We've unpacked this in a short episode of @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast with @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social & Arkady Mil-Man. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

President Trump’s desire to “get” Greenland isn’t keeping the U.S. secure. By working with – not against – its allies, Washington can counter Russia and China in the Arctic. @ibkardon.bsky.social‬ and @alexgabuev.bsky.social‬ explain for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/26/t...

How can European and Asian democracies better prepare to manage the challenge posed by a rogue Russia? Join tomorrow's online discussion with @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Yuichi Hosoya, @sabfis3.bsky.social, and @maxseddon.bsky.social: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOJw...

'The victory has been completely hijacked by Putin.' Arkady Ostrovsky talks to @alexgabuev.bsky.social. First out a couple of weeks ago, but it's a very important listen for anyone wanting to understand what WWII meant to Soviet people, and what it means now. carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

How did the memorial aspect of Russia's Victory Day public holiday become overshadowed by militarism and belligerent slogans, and is it all about Putin these days? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Arkady Ostrovsky:

Russia is expanding its military-industrial complex and building new facilities. An important investigation by @reuters.com with @mashatsvetkova.bsky.social, @reporter-polina.bsky.social, @mcneill.bsky.social, @christianlowe.bsky.social, @zverevlive.bsky.social. www.reuters.com/investigatio...

"With Trump enthusiastically shattering the remains of the US-led order, Putin and Xi are unlikely to remain bystanders." Some thoughts on larger-than-life summit of the Russian and Chinese rulers in today's @financialtimes.com. www.ft.com/content/c5a1...

President Trump’s apparent belief that Ukraine will inevitably lose its war against Russia if it doesn’t accept a peace deal may not be in line with the battlefield reality. @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social explain for the @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast:

With breakdown of diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, battlefield dynamics remain essential for the future trajectory of the conflict. In the latest episode of "Politika" podcast, I'm joined by my colleague @michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack it. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

Unpacking three theories of Trump’s foreign policy strategy with @stephenwertheim.bsky.social @lianafix.bsky.social @alexgabuev.bsky.social Gautam Chikermane of & Amanda Hsiao of @eurasiagroup.net youtu.be/cVB2o1rNhPg?...

🎙️‼️ What are the consequences for Russia of a falling oil price, and the unprecedented U.S. tariffs on China, Russia's most significant trading partner? I'm discussing it with Penn professor Tatiana Mikhailova. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

Here is one of the most eloquent and smart dissections of China's economy, tech, and geopolitics. By DGA Group's Joerg Wuttke in @gideonrachman.bsky.social's @financialtimes.com podcast. Well worth your time. www.ft.com/content/02a0...

Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel. youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...

How do BRICS members, partners, and aspirants see the organization? A helpful summary by @carnegieendowment.org, with a small contribution by yours truly on Russian perspectives. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

"Every wrongful detention or ignored court ruling is a “trial balloon”. If there is no effective pushback, would-be authoritarians will go further and faster." @gideonrachman.bsky.social with some lessons from Russia, Turkey, and India for Trump's America. www.ft.com/content/804a...

After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of the unity of the Ukrainian people. But is the real picture more nuanced? We explore with Balazs Jarabik in the newest episode of "Politika" podcast. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

What might be the Kremlin’s theory of victory navigating Trump 2.0 and fourth year of its war against Ukraine? We dissect it in @foreignaffairs.com with my great colleagues Alexandra Prokopenko and Tatiana Stanovaya. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...

Read @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Alexandra Prokopenko, and Tatiana Stanovaya on how Moscow won over the White House—and what Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to gain from U.S.-Russian talks:

Thrilled to dissect the craziness of today's geopolitics with inimitable @gideonrachman.bsky.social & Karin von Hippel , moderated by Jamie Smyth at @financialtimes.com's annual #FTCommodities global summit.

🎙️‼️ Your weekend podcast has arrived. I'm joined by great @dsorennie.bsky.social & Yanmei Xie to discuss whether Trump can drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. The short answer is "no," but it's the long answer that is more interesting and consequential. carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

"A problem that the west can and should address is its wishful thinking about shortcuts to defeat Putin and manage the Russia challenge. Unrealistic expectations, have been part of the problem all along." Some thoughts in @financialtimes.com on where we are in this ugly war. on.ft.com/3D0c4ho

New video: @alexgabuev.bsky.social on the three main scenarios for the outcome of Russia-U.S. negotiations, along with Russia’s goals, U.S. and EU leverage over Russia, and China’s position: youtu.be/oYr8b-sTu8M

The last week feels surreal for Russia-U.S. relations for sure. But what could be the Kremlin's battleplan? I discuss it with inimitable Elizaveta Fokht. youtu.be/oYr8b-sTu8M?...

Trump says that he will end the war in Ukraine. But there is a problem: Vladimir Putin appears to be in no hurry to make concessions and accept a deal that is not on his terms. Some thoughts on the Russian calculus for @economist.com. www.economist.com/by-invitatio...

Your weekend podcast has arrived! In the newest episode, I sit down with @carnegieendowment.org senior fellow Eric Ciaramella to discuss potential negotiations to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, and how to ensure Ukraine's security and sovereignty. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

Was thrilled to be part of this intellectual exercise on European security and strategic interdependence by the World Economic Forum & @ecfr.eu. Thanks for bringing me on board with many brilliant minds, @aranchagonzalez.bsky.social, Mark Leonard, and Borge Brende. www.weforum.org/publications...

How will the latest round of U.S. sanctions affect Russia's oil & gas sector? And will it help Trump to build leverage for for talks with the Kremlin? Tune in to latest episode of @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast with Sergey Vakulenko and Tatiana Mitrova. carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

"Assad’s fall invalidates Russia’s claim to be a guarantor of regime stability for allied governments. As long as the war in Ukraine continues, it will remain unable to export security abroad." My colleague Alexander Baunov in @foreignaffairs.com. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...

Always thrilled to join inimitable @gideonrachman.bsky.social on his @financialtimes.com podcast. This time with the great @jyshapiro.bsky.social & Karin von Hillel we are taking stock of global geopolitics of 2024, and trying to look around the corner into 2025.. Tune in! www.ft.com/content/60d5...

Best Carnegie 2024 podcasts' episodes as recommended by hosts, including yours truly. My favorite episode of "Politika" podcast is a therapeutic conversation with James Acton about risks of nuclear war. Also a shoutout to Dan Kurtz-Phelan & Steven Kotkin conversation on @foreignaffairs.com podcast.

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social, @hannanotte.bsky.social, and @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social analyze what the regime change in Syria means for Russia.

What does Assad's downfall mean for Russia's presence in Syria and beyond? On @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast, I've talked to inimitable @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social & @hannanotte.bsky.social. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

Given this week’s events Assad's regime is finished & it’s a race to Damascus. The Russian position in Syria, and MENA region writ large is consequently in deep trouble, because of Syria’s importance as a logistics hub for Russian operations. Short thread. 1/

Read @alexgabuev.bsky.social on how Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are each thinking about Trump 2.0:

On campaign trail, Trump boasted that he will "un-unite" China and Russia. How feasible is it? And what are Xi's & Putin's expectations/concerns about interregnum and early days of Trump 2.0? Some thoughts in @foreignaffairs.com. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/can-tr...

Was thrilled to join FilterLabs' Jonathan Teubner and @peterpomerantsev.bsky.social on "Navigating Noise" podcast to talk about China and Russia, two countries that Trump has now famously promised to 'un-unite.' Is this feasible? Well, tune in. www.navigatingnoisepodcast.com/content/unde...

🎙️📢‼️ How is the Russian leadership viewing risks and opportunities of Trump 2.0? I'm joined for the newest episode of @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast with @carnegieendow.bsky.social's very own Alexander Baunov. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

Anti-Americanism has become the organizing principle of Russia's foreign policy under Vladimir Putin. @alexgabuev.bsky.social explores this reality in his latest op-ed for @financialtimes.com, arguing that Russia's mistrust of the West will outlast the Trump era. Read: www.ft.com/content/dbbd...

From a September @financialtimes.com piece: "There will be further painful reversals for Putin, as Kyiv seeks approval to use Nato-supplied long-range missiles, as well as developing its own missile program. But the Kremlin is not short of tools to respond." on.ft.com/3MSTtoF

Regarding those reports about ICBM fired by Russia to Dnipro. My take is that one must be skeptical and cautious. First, on the "intercontinental" claim. The distance from Kapustin Yar to Dnipro is about 800 km, so it's not an intercontinental range. But it's complicated. A short thread 1/

Spot on.

When Putin has unveiled upcoming changes to the Russian nuclear doctrine a month ago, it was clear that the Kremlin faces a problem of how to restore the effectiveness of Russia’s deterrent. The publication of the document now will hardly fully solve it. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"Pyongyang’s willingness to break with tradition will not necessarily bring success on the battlefield, and has caused concern in both China and South Korea." Fyodor Tertitskiy on the significance of North Korean troops appearing in the Ukraine war: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

A massive Russian air strike against Ukraine was likely, and new strikes may be ahead of us - unless there is a deliberate effort to persuade the Kremlin otherwise. It’s already bad, and getting only more dangerous. For context see this piece in @financialtimes.com from a week ago: on.ft.com/4fSQ4Tq