How has Russia's full-scale invasion transformed the distribution of people, capital, infrastructure, and political influence within Ukraine? Mariya Levonova and Balázs Jarábik unpack what regional disparities mean for postwar reconstruction: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

In @thehill.com, Eric Green and Alexander Joel argue that the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund should prioritize early investments in infrastructure projects that support both Ukraine's present wartime resilience and future growth prospects: thehill.com/opinion/inte...

A new paper I co-authored with Philip Gamaghelyan is out. It looks at practical steps toward lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and how different actors can support long-term stability.Any feedback is welcome. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat... Should Europe be negotiating directly with Russia? Seven scholars respond to our latest @carnegieeurope.bsky.social (deliberately provocative) question

“Never before has the U.S. been so successful in its attempts to convince Central Asia that cooperation with Washington is worth the irritation from China and Russia.” Temur Umarov on the possible future of the region: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The White House wants to take advantage of Kyiv’s mounting problems to impose a peace agreement that is more favorable to Russia. But the Kremlin may still believe the battlefield is a more reliable way of achieving its goals, writes Tatiana Stanovaya: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

What went wrong in Russia? Was thrilled to discuss the sources of Russia's conduct with German Ambassador to Moscow Alexander Graf Lambsdorff & my colleague Ekaterina Schulmann in the newest episode of "Politika." This time with @koerber-ip.bsky.social . carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

How has Iran’s twelve-day war pushed Tehran even closer to Moscow and led to new cooperation agreements, including in the nuclear sector? Nikita Smagin explains: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

After several turbulent weeks in Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, where do peace prospects actually stand? Eric Ciaramella joins Anastasiia Lapatina and Benjamin Wittes on the Lawfare Daily podcast to discuss: www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawf...

Armenia's election, like it or not, is being fought by outside actors as well. Russia and parts of the US diaspora have a new candidate to unseat Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan needs help to demonstrate progress in his Real Armenia agenda. My latest for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social

Syria’s new leadership faces no shortage of immediate problems, not least holding onto power and restoring order. Moscow is willing to assist it in those tasks to further its own ends, argues Ruslan Suleymanov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Central Asia is adapting its entire ideological agenda to impress one man: Donald Trump. The recent C5+1 summit was a new high point in US-Central Asian ties. But is this rapprochement real, or just risk? 🧵🧵🧵

What’s behind the arrest of Ramiz Mehdiyev, who was for decades one of Azerbaijan’s most influential politicians, and why has President Aliyev accused him of plotting a Russia-backed coup d’état? Read Bashir Kitachaev's analysis here:

Check out the latest Russia Contingency. I join the head of Lasar’s Group, one of Ukraine’s best and lesser known drone units to talk about their experience, how drone use is evolving, adaptation on both sides, and what the future holds. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

"The main audience for proposals from the Russian elite is not in fact Trump, but Putin, who still seeks a landmark agreement with Washington." Andrey Pertsev on why figures close to Putin are trying to earn Trump's approval: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Ultimately, the adoption of some scheme to appropriate Russia's frozen assets seems almost inevitable. Otherwise, it will not just be Ukraine that is at risk, but the very raison d’être of the EU, argues Alexander Kolyandr: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

[email protected] joined the American Prestige podcast (@amprestigepod.bsky.social) to discuss the state of Russia's war on Ukraine, the future of European security, and more. Listen here:

Will Trump's sanctions against Russian oil finally force Putin to abandon his war against Ukraine? We've dissected this issue with Eddie Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare." Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

"While martial law has suspended formal democratic processes, it has not extinguished Ukraine’s democratic ambitions and track record of competitive politics and media freedom." Anatolii Oktysiuk and Balazs Jarabik on Ukraine's thawing political landscape:

Six months since its establishment, the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund is taking shape as an institutional partnership in the natural resources sector. Eric Green suggests it could be used to meet Kyiv's pressing defense needs as well:

"There are no longer any political guardrails on the country’s powerful security agencies, and the number of arrests of officials will only grow," predicts Tatiana Stanovaya in her new article. Read it here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The high-profile spat between Russia and Azerbaijan, which had been simmering since late last year, has suddenly come to an end. Bashir Kitachaev explains what it was about and why it ended so abruptly: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"Middle Eastern states are less and less convinced that the West can be relied upon, which is inevitably pushing them toward deals with Russia." Read Nikita Smagin's analysis of the new reality in the Middle East:

What would transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine mean for the EU, the euro, and the dollar? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Robert B. Zoellick, the former president of the World Bank: carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

The U.S. president’s successful imposition of a ceasefire on notorious sworn enemies who have both agreed to make concessions only highlights Putin’s intransigence and his lack of competence and reason, argues Alexander Baunov.

"Amid an economic boom, rhetoric about curtailing civil liberties is proving insufficient to galvanize Georgians into large-scale protests." Bashir Kitachaev analyzes the results of Georgia’s municipal elections: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @massdara.bsky.social and @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the current course of the war, recent developments, and policy trajectory here in DC. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/10/hold...

Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Austin Long and Pranay Vaddi to talk about the fall 2022 nuclear crisis. Was it a crisis? What do we think happened? Three years on, do we know now that can shed more light on this period? warontherocks.com/episode/ther... @warontherocks.bsky.social

While the active presence of China and Russia in Central Asia is nothing new, the current level of attention from the U.S. is unusual for a region located far from the major global crises. @tumarov.bsky.social explains why Central Asia remains in Trump's focus: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

On the latest episode of the @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast, Senior Fellows @michaelkofman.bsky.social and @massdara.bsky.social join @ryanevans.bsky.social to discuss frontline developments, the possible provision of Tomahawks to Ukraine, Russia's diplomatic failures, and more.

Back in 2022, the Kremlin was counting on Ukraine to prove weak and futile. Now it is counting on NATO to be weak, divided, and indecisive, argues Alexander Baunov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The current US administration is the easiest one so far for Central Asia to work with. Business interests can be used to attract attention & there's no need for demonstrative distancing from Russia or commitment to democratic reforms. @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why is Beijing opening a flurry of technical training centers known as Luban Workshops in Central Asia, and what is their significance? Edward Lemon and Bradley Jardine explain.

Why did Putin appoint former prosecutor general Igor Krasnov to head of Russia’s Supreme Court, and what does this mean for the growing power of Russia’s security forces amid the war with Ukraine? Read Mikhail Komin’s analysis: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moscow’s anti-immigrant campaign at home is proving increasingly costly abroad. For the first time in years, Central Asian countries are reassessing their relations with Moscow, writes Galiya Ibragimova: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Sergey Vakulenko's perspective on intensifying Ukrainian strikes against Russia's refineries is featured in a recent article from The Economist.

"Kyiv’s unprecedented strike campaign against Russian oil refineries has inflicted serious—but likely not critical—damage on the country’s ability to produce fuel." Sergey Vakulenko analyzes the impact on Russia’s oil refining capacity.

In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Dara Massicot (@massdara.bsky.social) argues that the Russian military has "quietly constructed a complex ecosystem of learning" to institutionalize battlefield lessons from Ukraine.

Russia has revived Intervision, a Cold War-era socialist bloc alternative to Eurovision. But despite a slick showbiz veneer, it failed to provide a convincing answer as to why it was necessary in the first place, argues Andrey Shashkov:

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Justyna Gotkowska discuss the latest Russia-related airspace violations of Denmark, Estonia, Norway, and Poland, and what they mean for NATO: carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

Russia is once again facing a major demographic crisis, and this time the decline in the birth rate is deeper, the age structure of the population is worse, and Russia's appeal to immigrants has declined, writes Salavat Abylkalikov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

"After three and a half years of war, the Russian government is stabilizing the country’s war-torn public finances not through economic growth, but through tax hikes." Alexandra Prokopenko analyzes Russia's draft budget and the coming tax changes: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

As the Russian military continues its "grinding advance" in Donetsk, Senior Fellow Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) joins @theworld.org's Marco Werman to discuss why Russian casualties are on the rise.

"For decades, Dmitry Kozak was one of Putin’s most trusted mediators when it came to post-Soviet countries. But the war in Ukraine has made his services redundant." Vladimir Solovyov on the high-profile departure of the Kremlin deputy chief of staff: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Water shortages in Central Asia will worsen significantly when Afghanistan completes a canal diverting substantial volumes of water from the Amu Darya River. And it could escalate regional tensions, writes Galiya Ibragimova. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug

Negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time, argues Sergey Vakulenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The painless return of Russia’s fully militarized economy to a civilian model is impossible: no amount of fortune can override the laws of economics, argues Alexandra Prokopenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

How did the White House end up brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan? In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."

🎙️🎚️‼️ Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social! open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...