Security guarantees looked one way in Alaska, and another in Washington. @massdara.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social join Ryan to break down which version Ukraine might get. Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social "Half-Baked Alaska" On the failed Trump-Putin summit and what changes about the prospects of peace as a result. (£/free to read) samf.substack.com/p/half-baked...

Since security guarantees are back in discussion, for those interested in the requirements, tasks, and what a European deterrence force might look like - check out this piece from back in March with Jack Watling. warontherocks.com/2025/03/will...

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the state of the front lines in Ukraine. www.powervertical.org/2025/08/01/t...

Recently met this great UA customs inspector

Uh oh. Scoop: Scores of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s MPs are potentially refusing to vote to restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing the regained powers will be used to take revenge against them. www.ft.com/content/d8c2... via @financialtimes.com

Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the state of the front, manpower, drones, and the recent disruption of aid from the United States. Open to all. @WarOnTheRocks open.spotify.com/episode/11Cb...

Some things here may be dated but I still found it useful. If you follow drone use in Ukraine then you likely know a lot of what’s in this piece. Yet the perspective is nonetheless helpful. warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fo...

Important. "The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US [DIA] intelligence assessment" edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/p...

NYT on the decision to strike Iran. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...

[email protected] and I had a great conversation with the always insightful @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the current state of the war in Ukraine. Mike shared his assessment of the frontline situation, how things are going for each side, & what he’s watching closely in the months ahead.

Latest RC is out. I join @justin-br0nk.bsky.social and Guy Plopsky to talk about the Israeli vs Russian air campaign. Why one succeed and the other failed. How can these different wars be usefully compared? What are observations or lessons learned. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Assuming 40% operational readiness in Russian LRA the confirmed impact of damaged and destroyed aircraft is 25-30% of the fleet. If readiness is lower then this goes to 35%+. These are rough estimates.

For folks who missed it. I sat down with the head of Estonian Military Intelligence for a conversation on the Russia-Ukraine war, how he sees the future Russia threat, and the security dynamic in the Baltic. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Another Russia Contingency episode is out. Rob Lee and @massdara.bsky.social join me for a good discussion on the SBU operation, what we know, implications, and exchange views on the current course of the war. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

With interviews featuring Leon Panetta, Frank Kendall, Michael A. Brown, @spettyjohn.bsky.social, Paul Scharre, @mchorowitz.bsky.social @aaronbateman.bsky.social, @michaelkofman.bsky.social, Kate Epstein, Thomas G. Mahnken, Benjamin Jensen, Jack Shanahan, James Roche and many more

Rob Lee, @michaelkofman.bsky.social and I share our views on drone strikes on Russian bombers, and views on the frontlines in Ukraine below @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Where different BDA assessments seem to converge. Destroyed: 7 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 1 An-12. Damaged: 1 Tu-95MS, 2 Tu-22M3 , 2 A-50s (probably non-operational). Additionally attacked & possibly damaged: 4 Tu-22M3 (status unclear), and 1 Tu-95MS.

The second part of our Russia contingency episode with Richard Connolly and Alexandra Prokopenko is out. We continue the discussion on Russia’s economic outlook, debates about how Moscow is financing the war, defense spending, and more. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Interesting investigative piece. danwatch.dk/en/serious-s...

Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Richard Connolly and Alexandra Prokopenko to talk about the state of the Russian economy. We look at oil prices, sanctions, and discuss different scenarios for the coming months. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Live at #LennartMeriConference @icds-tallinn.bsky.social another high level panel with 🇪🇪 PM @kristenmichalpm.bsky.social , @michaelkofman.bsky.social , @georginaewright.bsky.social & Torrey Taussig. On Ukraine aid and boots on the ground. Reality check badly needed though.

I was joined by @massdara.bsky.social @michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack how the Trump administration’s ambitious peace efforts have collided with reality warontherocks.com/2025/05/will...

Part 2 of my discussion with @shashj.bsky.social is out. Come for mass precision and maneuver warfare, stay for observations from the war relevant to European force planning and defense contingencies. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

With breakdown of diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, battlefield dynamics remain essential for the future trajectory of the conflict. In the latest episode of "Politika" podcast, I'm joined by my colleague @michaelkofman.bsky.social to unpack it. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

On this week’s Power Vertical Podcast I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the current state of the war & where it may be heading www.powervertical.org/2025/04/18/a...

Latest Russia Contingency is out. @shashj.bsky.social joins me and we switch roles. This time he asks the questions as we dive into observations and lessons from the war. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Interesting piece. www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Enjoyed this. I asked @michaelkofman.bsky.social a lot of questions about the future of war. We spoke about whether technology is making the battlefield transparent, the offence-defence balance, European v Asian theatres, what European armies should focus on and his favourite books on war ($, WOTR)

Bridget Brink, the US ambassador to Ukraine, is stepping down following increasing policy disagreements with President Donald Trump’s administration, according to people familiar with her decision. www.ft.com/content/aecd...

Good conversation with @benjaminhart.bsky.social nymag.com/intelligence...

I had another excellent conversation with @michaelkofman.bsky.social about where the war in Ukraine stands now. nymag.com/intelligence...

Part two of the latest Russia Contingency episode is out. Rob Lee and I talk tactics, tech, and innovation, updating our views based on the last field trip. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Weekend long read. There’s quite a bit in here. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Almost every day, we hear about strikes against targets inside Russia, but we rarely get the full picture of their actual impact on the war. Radio Liberty and Frontelligence Insight have joined efforts to analyze hundreds of data points to answer this question. 🧵Thread

The War on the Rocks membership gets you closer to the action. Become an insider and join today: warontherocks.com/membership

An update on the war following a recent trip. The situation has improved compared with Fall 2024. Russian offensive momentum slowed significantly over the winter, though it is premature to claim that the front has stabilized, especially following AFU withdrawal in Kursk. /1

Latest Russia Contingency is out. Rob Lee joins me for a discussion on the situation in Kursk, state of the front, tech innovation, and tactical adaptation. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Regarding Kursk. AFU is still withdrawing. I expect there will be equipment left behind, but there is no evidence of a mass encirclement.

In Kursk, the main problem was RF interdiction of the few supply routes available, with one main road into Sudzha. As the Kursk pocket got squeezed it became increasingly unsustainable. These issues have been discussed for a long time.

Latest WOTR episode is out. I join @constelz.bsky.social Justin Logan, Melinda Haring & @ryanevans.bsky.social to discuss last week’s events, US cut off of support, the growing rift with Ukraine & Europeans, and prospects for fixing it. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/2025/03/can-...

The suspension of U.S. assistance for Ukraine is a very unfortunate and significant development, but it may not have immediate impact. Ukraine is far less dependent on the U.S. for day to day battlefield needs in 2025, than it was in earlier periods of the war. 1/

Jack Watling and I take a look at what the requirements might look like for a European force in Ukraine. We find that this not an insurmountable task, but will require proper resourcing and difficult political choices. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/03/will...

Good post by Jon.

Although this was recorded and released before the disaster that was yesterday’s meeting I think the podcast discussion held up well. A conversation with @lianafix.bsky.social Justin Logan, and @ryanevans.bsky.social @warontherocks.bsky.social t.co/yTFQaz97cz

Zelensky in Washington DC - I discussed Ukraine diplomacy with @michaelkofman.bsky.social Justin Logan and Ryan Evans for the latest @warontherocks.bsky.social episode - listen in: warontherocks.com/2025/02/the-...

Good panel with Carnegie colleagues. www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCV2...

The latest Russia Contingency is out. Rob Lee joins me to talk about our recent trip to Ukraine. We cover the situation at the front, latest findings and insights, what’s changed and how we should update our views. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Latest on UA Corps. militaryland.net/news/the-gen...

Observing the Finnish Army train with Jack Watling. Thanks to the Karelia Brigade for hosting us and to Finnish colleagues for the thoughtful exchanges we had this week.