Very much looking forward to welcoming @michaelkofman.bsky.social at @irsem.bsky.social, to his keynote on the strategic lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, and to discussing implications for European security with @elietenenbaum.bsky.social and Maud Quessard! October 6 www.irsem.fr/agenda/strat...

Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.

Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7

Le terrorisme est une forme de guerre irrégulière, concept né dès le XVIIIe siècle @elietenenbaum.bsky.social vous raconte l'histoire de ces pratiques motivées par le différentiel de moyens entre les belligérants 👇 ehne.fr/fr/encyclope... 🤝 @aphg.bsky.social @lettres-sorbonne.bsky.social

Since January 20, Russian air raids in Ukraine have intensified dramatically

📖 [À lire] Dernier numéro de la revue Politique Etrangère de @ifri.bsky.social où je co-signe avec G. Garnier un article "L'Europe à découvert" sur la défense stratégique & militaire de l'🇪🇺 avec une participation 🇺🇸 📉: Posture Review, menace russe, scénarios d'avenir www.ifri.org/fr/articles/...

📚Tout juste reçu le superbe ouvrage collectif dirigé par Guillaume Piketty “Sortir de la guerre” aux éd @passescomposes.bsky.social où je signe le dernier chapitre avec @vlouzon.bsky.social sur les sorties de guerre depuis 1945. Un travail au long cours lancé il y’a trois ans. Every war must end. 📖

US offers air and intelligence support to postwar force in Ukraine www.ft.com/content/66ec...

📍 Poland | The 🇪🇺 #EUMAM military assistance mission continues ! ➡️ Multi-domain training courses provided to 🇺🇦armed forces : live-fire, tactical manœuvre, operations in complex environment, combat first aid, and more.

The Beatles are back. The fourth volume of the band’s “Anthology Collection” of recordings (including 13 new demos) is arriving, along with a capstone episode to the 1995 eight-part documentary and a 25th-anniversary edition of “The Beatles Anthology” book.

📢 Ma tribune dans @lemonde.fr à propos de l'Ukraine et du débat sur les garanties de sécurité: j’y défends une idée simple mais exigeante : ne pas attendre le cessez-le-feu pour agir 👉 : www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl... Petit 🧵à dérouler ⤵️

With the White House meeting in mind and discussions on security guarantees to Ukraine at the forefront once again, I feel our 9 month-old piece with Leo Litra at @foreignaffairs.com is still relevant www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...

Russia Makes a Swift Battlefield Advance, Seeking an Edge in Trump Talks www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/w...

Interesting read @theatlantic.com on the mysteriously dormant Proud Boys militia since Jan 2025 due to Trump basically enforcing what they had so far fantasized. Extremist groups rarely acknowledge to be satisfied, though. Let’s see what their next move could be www.theatlantic.com/technology/a...

I may not have the most updated figures but my understanding is that we’re around 1.5 million in 2025 mostly through rheinmetall & nammo (1m & 300k) you add French KNDS (150-200?) and Ukrainian local prod (100 to 200k a year)

NATO’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) series of packages is on: 🇳🇱 just kicked the 1# ball with $500 millions worth of US-built equipment & ammo. 🇺🇦 needs it and as there’s no other way right now, all should participate while getting ready to do more as Euros www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...

Désespérant… il faudrait aussi ajouter en parallèle la relecture décoloniale de Churchill comme celle de Tariq Ali qui est à peine moins bête www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...

🚀 bonne nouvelle au regard du besoin DAMB : serai tt de même curieux de savoir 1️⃣ contre quelle cible teste-t-on le B1NT vu qu’on n’a pas de missil balistique conv (les Sparrow 🇮🇱 étaient à l’origine des cibles) — ça pourrait être un partenariat sur ELSA www.opex360.com/2025/07/31/l...

Netanyahu is single-handedly turning Democratic friends of Israel into critics, which could have lasting effects on US military aid.

Héritage du conflit franco-siamois qui avait mal tourné pour la France en 1941…

✈️ Air drops by 🇯🇴 &🇦🇪 of humanitarian aid to resume in Gaza: how many planes would it take to airdrop emergency food for #Gaza? Let’s run the numbers and see what it would take to actually make a difference. 🧵 www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/li...

[🎧 À écouter] #Trump, l' #OTAN et la défense de l' #Europe. Dans ce nouvel épisode du podcast "Le monde selon l'Ifri", @elietenenbaum.bsky.social analyse les grandes décisions actées par les membres de l'Alliance à l'issue du dernier Sommet de l'OTAN à La Haye. ⤵️ www.ifri.org/fr/audio-le-...

🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Guerre #Iran - #Israël : quels enseignements capacitaires pour la France et l'Europe ? @elietenenbaum.bsky.social rappelle 3 enjeux : • Disponibilité des matériels de puissance aérienne • Capacités de ciblage en masse • Stock de munitions 📽️ Audition : www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jSE...

RIP Mr Blonde! We’ll miss you www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/m...

Live at #NATOSummit with 🇺🇦 Defense Minister Umerov, 🇬🇧 MOD Healey and 🇳🇱 MOD Veldkamp. Talking Coalition of the willing and consistent military support . UK about to announce a new aide batch tomorrow #strongertogether

Live at #NATOsummit : Adm Vandier / SACT stresses the complementarity of Deterrence and Defence in crisis scenarios. Wargaming clearly indicate you cannot win if you stay on the defensive. You need to be credible and threaten your adversary cc @terischultz.bsky.social

En direct du Sommet de l’OTAN l’amiral Vandier (SACT) et l’amiral Dragone évoquent le retard des Alliés sur leurs cibles capacitaires adoptées en juin dernier au micro de @terischultz.bsky.social #natosummit2025

Some solid details in the US strike package over Iran here theaviationist.com/2025/06/22/b...

Israeli Strikes Target Iran’s Nuclear Program www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...

Trump Declares Dubious Emergencies to Amass Power, Scholars Say www.nytimes.com/2025/06/10/u...

Live at #LennartMeriConference @icds-tallinn.bsky.social another high level panel with 🇪🇪 PM @kristenmichalpm.bsky.social , @michaelkofman.bsky.social , @georginaewright.bsky.social & Torrey Taussig. On Ukraine aid and boots on the ground. Reality check badly needed though.

Live at #LennartMeriConference @icds-tallinn.bsky.social great panel on “Can Europe defend itself?”. Gen. Eichelseim from 🇳🇱 : “we already know what US capabilities be lacking in Europe 5 years from now”

Baltic Sea Security: Shadow Fleet in Shallow Waters - Kęstutis Budrys @lithuaniamfa.bsky.social - @rodki.bsky.social - John Mead @natojfcbs.bsky.social - Hanno Pevkur - @annwieanna.bsky.social - @charlyjsp.bsky.social 📸 flic.kr/s/aHBqjCepcC 📹 youtube.com/watch?v=8wKW... #LennartMeriConference

Live at #LennartMeriConference @icds-tallinn.bsky.social, High Rep @kajakallas.bsky.social: “if everybody in Europe 🇪🇺would spend as much as the Netherlands 🇳🇱 in the aid to Ukraine 🇺🇦 it would be enough to fill the gap possibly left by 🇺🇸 default (if any)” Pageing 🇫🇷 🇮🇹 🇪🇸

Alors que des négociations s'ouvrent une nouvelle fois à Istanbul entre Russie et Ukraine, le "Casque et la plume" revient sur leurs perspectives et le rapport de force, avec @rmomtaz.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social et @elietenenbaum.bsky.social. ▶️ lerubicon.org/collimateur-...

British army has given all its AS90 to Ukraine 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 Time to speed up rearmament now! www.army-technology.com/news/reveale...

Difficile d’être en desaccord : ils iront au Canada, au Royaume-Uni ou en Scandinavie, la compétitivité ça ne se décrète pas. www.lemonde.fr/sciences/art...

"It is utterly naïve to think that what is happening in the trade dimension will not affect defence relations." The political connection, built on trust, is just as crucial as the material one, writes Tomas Jermalavičius.

Tiens mais donc au titre de la réciprocité des mesures, on devrait exiger une élection présidentielle démocratique en Russie aussi, non? 😇 on verra bien qui gagnera

#HGGSP C'est quoi le livre blanc pour la défense européenne présenté par la Commission 🇪🇺 le 19 mars dernier? Quelles ambitions, priorités, enjeux/défis? A écouter l'épisode du Collimateur @lerubicon.bsky.social avec @elietenenbaum.bsky.social @rmomtaz.bsky.social lerubicon.org/collimateur-...

On vous promet une émission «Retex» passionnante avec @elietenenbaum.bsky.social et Amélie Zima de @ifri.bsky.social, sur la façon dont Baltes et Polonais perçoivent et se préparent à la menace russe. @mediapart.fr www.mediapart.fr/journal/inte...

UK expects more than 30 countries to join Ukrainian ceasefire coalition https://www.ft.com/content/61cb338a-0d8e-41bc-bd25-72a2096ecf90

🎧Much honored to appear on the indispensable @telegraphnews.bsky.social podcast: “Ukraine The Latest”, interviewed by @adeliepjz.bsky.social on French policy vis-à-vis NATO, Ukraine and the Defense of Europe 💪🇫🇷🇬🇧🇺🇦 Tune in here ⤵️⤵️ shows.acast.com/ukraine-the-...

🚨@ifri.bsky.social just published 🆕 report with 2 contrasting views on the Transatlantic Defense Industry Relations: @jcaverley.bsky.social & E. Kapstein point at the limits of 🇪🇺 strategic autonomy, @leoperiapeigne.bsky.social & I challenge the reliability of 🇺🇸 DTIB www.ifri.org/en/studies/t... ⤵️⤵️

‘"Responding to the historic appeal of the future German Chancellor [Friedrich Merz], I decided to open the strategic debate on the protection by our [nuclear] deterrence of our allies of the European continent," announced Mr. Macron’ lemonde.fr/international/…

🚨 In a formal address to the nation 🇫🇷 President Emmanuel Macron calls on a meeting of selected European Chiefs of defense staff for possible deployment of a security guarantee force in Ukraine 🇺🇦 www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

Here we are: and as planned, Europe is not ready to provide the backfill. We need to place orders now. Most urgent may be to look at SATCOM: to what extent could OneWeb a degraded substitute to StarLink, just to keep UA online before they shut it down? www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/u...

Re-checking, @kiel.institute 3rd Anniversary report last month: overall Western European aid to Ukraine has been very limited: 0.2% of GDP for Germany and UK, 0.1% for France, Italy and Spain. If Europe doubles its funding, it roughly makes up for probable lost US aid, & it would still be less 0.4%

After years of procrastination, Europeans are back to the wall: beyond words of support, they need to put the money 💶💷 on the table *today* in London summit: first for Ukraine, then for themselves. we’re talking a few 100 bn € for 🇺🇦 , 5x that for the rest of Eur 1/3 www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/w...