Doctor Dioxide really enjoyed this song @blackmariahtheater.bsky.social @loudwomen.org

The expiration yesterday of the New START Treaty ends formal limits on U.S. & Russian nuclear deployments. To mitigate the resulting dangers, Russia & the US can commit to remain under the previous limits & negotiate new treaties. Glad to have signed this @deepcutsproject.bsky.social statement.

Doctor Dioxide (see prior post) also really enjoyed Kallemi's debut EP, Viajeras. The doctor likes it when music draws on a wide range of musical and cultural styles, plus, migration is, of course, a theme near and dear to her heart. @loudwomen.org

Hi friends. Happy to announce that my alter ego, Doctor Dioxide (you'll figure it out) is writing about music with @loudwomen.org. The doctor thinks Kid Sophie's new single is pretty darn groovy

Even as fighting continues & Russian bombings leave civilians without heat, Ukrainian politics is back, both behind closed doors & more publicly. However the war unfolds, Mr. Zelenskyy must now think to the future. In this @crisisgroup.org commentary, @luciankim.bsky.social explains the dynamics.

At Davos, by saying he would not use force, Trump somewhat cooled a crisis engendered by his insistence the U.S. own Greenland. But the crisis continues, & however it sorts out, transatlantic relations are irrevocably altered. Our @crisisgroup.org pre-speech analysis lays it out 🧵 1/10

Did Donald Trump rule out use of force in his Davos speech? Not entirely clear, but he did not walk back from his demand for an ally's territory. @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org, Marta Mucznik, & I walk through the implications of this continuing crisis for the European & transatlantic security

As Davos awaits Trump, my colleagues & I lay out what's at stake in the Greenland crisis & what might come next as European allies weigh the value of Donald Trump's United States & their options

Whether you are Ukraine or Denmark, it is imaginable that your leaders might decide to trade territory for security, though this would be a fraught & potentially unwise choice. It seems far less plausible to trade territory for wobbly commitments from unreliable actors.

On the first War & Peace podcast of 2026, @nathalietocci.bsky.social joins @alissadecarbonnel.bsky.social & me to talk U.S. actions in Venezuela, its threats to Greenland, & what's wrong (& right) with European security responses. Plus, multilateralism, what does it even look like now?

Anyone else hear "like it or not" and translate it in their head to "нравится, не нравится"? Because, ya know, they literally mean the same thing.

PSA: --Anti-semitism, like other bigotries, is wrong whatever the political goals of the bigot. --Bigotry from those in power is most dangerous. --Bigotry from those out of power can be dangerous, too. --Anti-semites & other bigots are not really liberal or progressive, whatever else they espouse.

Pleased to be in such erudite company in this strong piece by @sgutterman.bsky.social pulling together expert views on prospects for the Russo-Ukrainian war over the next year. Spoiler: none of us are optimistic we'll see a sustainable peace soon.

You honor the victims of horrific violence by remembering them, and seeking accountability for crimes. You do not honor them by watching recordings of their suffering. Some people must, to make that accountability possible. But if you're not one of them, don't.

Mia Hansen-Love rocks. That is all.

I am not sure the Trump administration views an end to NATO, caused, say, by prospective efforts to seize Greenland, as a downside. Their many NATO-sceptical comments suggest they do not understand what the benefits of NATO to the US actually are. So challenge for allies is to break that down a bit.

Now also available in Armenian!

Welcoming my brilliant colleague @alissadecarbonnel.bsky.social to Bluesky. Follow her for Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye, the South Caucasus, Western Balkans, and European security and related issues write large. You won't regret it.

The day after risks highlighted here are well worth revisiting.

Wondering if anyone has yet added possible Ukrainian contributions to the defense of Greenland to the Coalition of the Willing meeting agenda

Talk about "hold my beer"

Look at their faces & body language. Apparently not how any of these men wanted to start their year.

NEW COMMENTARY | @crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026 2025 was a bloody affair. 2026 promises little better. @comfortero.crisisgroup.org and Richard Atwood unpack the challenges that lie ahead this year. ⬇️ www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...

So depressing. Also, so good. I mean, for those of us still into words. Happy New Year, folks.

How might refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh affect Armenian politics and the peace process with Azerbaijan in months and years to come? In a new @crisisgroup.org commentary, @joshuakucera.bsky.social explores how refugees live today, their concerns, government policy, & what it might mean. 1/2

Frozen asset use is fraught, but debate distracts from real issue: EU & members are helping Ukraine because it's in their own security interests. Decision to commit to further aid but not to underwrite it with frozen Russian assets is Brussels recognizing lack of easy answers, but moving forward.

Russian aircraft over NATO members' skies are not new. But with full-scale war raging in Ukraine & a volatile information environment, policymakers must do better at identifying what's up there & responding appropriately. @alxgraef.bsky.social & I explain for the @deepcutsproject.bsky.social

Some 100K Karabakh Armenians left when Baku regained the territory in 2023. In Armenia today, their aid is shrinking & Yerevan is focused on peace talks & elections. On the new @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast, Alissa de Carbonnel & I discuss the implications with @joshuakucera.bsky.social

On the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Accords, Marko Prelec reflects for @crisisgroup.org on the deal's historic significance at the time and its repercussions since.

Pleased & proud to have this new @crisisgroup.org report on Türkiye-Iraq relations, a collaboration between our Europe & Central Asia Program & our Middle East Program staff. It lays out rapprochement to date & prospects and pitfalls for the future.

While I was away on holiday, Alissa de Carbonnel and Elissa Jobson did a terrific job on the @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast, with guest @sabinefreizer.bsky.social discussing gender dynamics in the war in Ukraine, and how Ukraine's women are responding. Check it out!

@dexeve.bsky.social and I wrote this piece a while ago for @bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?

Mayor-elect of NYC is a man who co-wrote & co-performed a (political) song about salt & I think that is very appropriate

I ❤️ Lynda Barry

Interesting. I had a conversation with someone the other day about whether the language in which you ask the question affects the answer an LLM gives you, particularly when it comes to matters of international affairs, but not only. Have not tested that (and probably won't), so still wondering.

А чем, вообще, являются гарантии безопасности, и почему они стали таким тяжелым вопросом в отношениях между Украиной и ее партнерами? Мы ( @crisisgroup.org ) объясняем (текст доступний українською мовою, на русском, & in English) www.crisisgroup.org/uk/europe-ce...

Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.

Trump isn't the first global leader to try (& try) to find a path to peace in the Russo-Ukraine war. New @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast welcomes @clingendael.bsky.social's Bob Deen to discuss the roles global powers have tried to play & might yet play with guest host Alissa de Carbonnel & me.

Not to be THAT dictionary, but… It’s ‘per se,’ not ‘per say.’ It’s ‘dog-eat-dog world,’ not ‘doggy-dog world.’ It’s ‘hunger pangs,’ not ‘hunger pains.’ It’s ‘one and the same,’ not ‘one in the same.’ It's 'buck naked,' not 'butt naked.'

this is a good speech.

This is a terrific success story. It also offers valuable insight into the gaps in much traditional economic/employment/income analysis: a lot of people, most of them female, do a great deal of unpaid agricultural labor that is not accounted for unless the models are built to recognize it.

This is funny.

Our latest @crisisgroup.org EU Watchlist starts with a sober President's Take on the challenges of navigating between the Scylla of Russian threats and the Charybdis of US inconstancy, then dives deep into how the EU can help make things better in Kosovo, Mexico, Yemen, Somalia, and Taiwan.

More terrific work from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & the CNA team. Come for smart analysis on what nuke infrastructure is/not in Belarus & what signals Moscow & Minsk are trying to send. Stay for Russians grappling with realities of war not matching theories of war.

Really interesting analysis from @massdara.bsky.social on what Russian military is learning, & its learning challenges. Paired with @gabrielairosa.bsky.social's recent work on Russian strategic thinking & threat perceptions www.cna.org/analyses/202..., it's got me thinking. So join me in a 🧵 1/7

The logic of Russian military assistance (including deployments of Wagner and Africa Corps), explained in a short video, with excellent maps, from @crisisgroup.org w/the erudite Pauline Bax narrating! www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0yI...

On this week’s episode, I joined Richard Atwood along with my colleagues @mairavz.bsky.social @maxji.bsky.social and Amjad Iraqi to discuss Trump’s Gaza ceasefire proposals and next steps. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Really important stuff from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social & CNA. Our own assumptions about what others think are bound to get things wrong. Always a good idea to go to the sources. Read the thread, then read the report!

Kayla has been there and done that and knows things.

Moldova's parliamentary elections have given ruling party PAS a mandate to keep on keeping on with European integration and EU accession. But there's still a lot of work to do, and some substantial challenges to overcome. My @crisisgroup.org colleague Marta Mucznik explains.