NEWS from @crisisgroup.org. After 7 years as UN Director, I'm moving to a new program on Global Issues and Institutions. @fortid.crisisgroup.org becomes Head of UN Affairs, backed by @mayaungar.bsky.social. . AND we need a Senior Analyst covering geopolitics 👇 jobs.crisisgroup.org/o/analyst-gl...

Trump isn't the first global leader to try (& try) to find a path to peace in the Russo-Ukraine war. New @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast welcomes @clingendael.bsky.social's Bob Deen to discuss the roles global powers have tried to play & might yet play with guest host Alissa de Carbonnel & me.

NEW BRIEFING | Gaza’s Ceasefire is Vital, but Only a Start Trump’s Gaza ceasefire is holding. But unless the truce is bolstered by sustained international diplomacy and pressure, the plan may collapse, leaving the decimated strip in limbo. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

🔴 We just published the Autumn Update for our Watch List for the European Union. This special @crisisgroup.org report highlights global crises that the EU has the potential to address in 2025. Here are our latest updates: www.crisisgroup.org/global/watch...

‘Israel needs to deliver’: Europe’s private fears over Trump’s plan for Gaza via @politico.eu www.politico.eu/article/isra...

‘Two years on, Gaza has paid the price for global inaction.’ As we mark Hamas’s attacks against Israel on 7 October 2023, @crisisgroup.org’s CEO and President @comfortero.crisisgroup.org reflects on what has unfolded since - and the urgent choices now before us. 1/9 🧵 mailchi.mp/crisisgroup....

🗒️ NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | EU Commission Draws up Plans to Pressure Israel over Gaza Offensive @lisamusiol.bsky.social examines EU proposals to sanction Israel and curb trade benefits, and the likely resistance from some member states. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Read here a quick take on the EU proposal to pressure Israel over Gaza offensive. The ball is now in the court of EU capitals. Failing once again agree on more prerssure would mean standing by as Israel continues to destroy Palestinian life in Gaza. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

#EU ambassadors roll-over #Russia sanctions on more than 2,500 sanctioned persons and entities by 6 months, without any political delistings.

Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.

@crisisgroup.org at its best, separating the signal from the noise. Read my colleague @olyaoliker.bsky.social 's take on the drone incident in Poland. Some headlines suggested a NATO-Russia confrontation might be closer. But the opposite could be true. 👇 www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

Von der Leyen on Israel: - We will put our financial support to Israel on hold - We will propose sanctions on extremist Israeli ministers and violent settlers - We will also propose a partial suspension of the association agreement on trade-related measures

Ursula von der Leyen: "We need to move to qualified majority in some areas, for example, in foreign policy. It is time to break free from the shackles of unanimity. The point is that we need to make sure our Union is faster and can deliver for Europeans." #SOTEU

In her #SOTEU State of the Union speech Von der Leyen surprised with harsh word's against Israel and plans to push for sanctions and partial suspension of Association Agreement www.politico.eu/article/ursu...

Colombia is entering a difficult election year, amid rising armed group violence. The temptation to seek a military solution is a false one. Peace talks work. Sustaining their gains is harder. My column today in @nytimes.com offers a way forward. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/o...

Israel orders evacuation of Gaz city via @financialtimes.com on.ft.com/3Vaxi1v @crisisgroup.org warned in a recent statement that if Israel’s assault on Gaza city, in the midst of a famine, continues, the results look set to be still more horrifying than what the world has witnessed to date.

UPDATE: it's now 187 NGOs & trade unions urging suspension of the #EU - #Israel Association Agreement. Credible findings of genocide & apartheid are NOT compatible with the human rights clause - nor is inaction. EU ministers failed on June 20. They must not fail again on July 15. #SuspendTheDeal

Letzte Woche war voll geopolitischer Entwicklungen. Um alles einzuordnen, waren MdEP Tobias Cremer, @lisamusiol.bsky.social und ich bei @euronewsde.bsky.social zu Gast und sprachen über: 🛡️ NATO-Gipfel ❗ Angriff auf Irans Atomanlagen 🤝 EU–Kanada-Gipfel 🎥 www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-cS...

Iran attack could be the death knell for nuclear non-proliferation More countries will seek atomic weapons unless Europe and its allies defend a flawes but vital treaty - on.ft.com/45Jehd3 via @FT

My quotes @deutschewelle.bsky.social coverage on EU's Gaza policy "It seems that after the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, many member states have fallen into their old positions," she said. www.dw.com/en/double-st...

In a new @crisisgroup.org 'Analyst Notebook' my colleague Marta Musiol unpacks the outcome of the NATO summit with all its pledges and ambiguities. 👇 www.crisisgroup.org/rss.xml

How war became contagious - on.ft.com/3GdXS5Z via @FT "Drones improve by the month, changing the geopolitical calculus."

NATO gathers: as U.S. recalibrates its role & Russia presses Ukraine, a certain amount of improvisation seems destined to be part of Europe’s security architecture, both when it comes to war in Ukraine & when it comes to other future challenges. www.crisisgroup.org/global-usrus... @crisisgroup.org

Overdue. EU’s stance (or let’s rather say, non-stance) on Israel/ Gaza massively harms its credibility as a supporter of the rules-based international order.

The EU “missed an important opportunity to make clear to the Israeli government that its policies in Gaza and the West Bank have long crossed a red line and will come at a cost for EU-Israel relations”. My quote in @theguardian.com coverage of yesterday's FAC. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

“The head-spinning course changes on Iran revealed once again how the US president alternates between blustery threats, efforts to cut deals, extreme measures and sudden victory laps — even when momentous issues are at stake.”

As the #NATO summit kicks off today, with my colleagues @olyaoliker.bsky.social and Marta Mucznik, we analayse the role that improvised platforms for cooperation may play in European security going forward. 👇 www.crisisgroup.org/global-usrus...

❗Important new @crisisgroup.org statement on #EU, #Gaza & #Israel. Words are not enough. For EU governments to help change Israel’s policy, they need to throw more of their economic and diplomatic weight into signalling to Israel that the Gaza campaign must end. bit.ly/3FFM0t5

“South Sudan is one major escalation away from slipping into a new civil war” @crisisgroup.org Horn of Africa Director Alan Boswell @nytimes.com. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/w...

“The talks in Jeddah lasted several hours. According to participants, the Ukrainians opened with Zelensky’s idea for partial ceasefire. The Americans countered with the idea of a complete ceasefire…an initial 30 days, renewable if both combatants agree” www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

Ukraine's European backers' storm of summits draws critiques because no table includes everyone. But a constellation of talks likely smarter than attempting full inclusivity from start. Notable &, I think, critical that UK-hosted meet today includes Türkiye, represented by its foreign minister.

In a nutshell 👇🏾 “People will die,” said Dr. Catherine Kyobutungi, executive director of the African Population and Health Research Center, “but we will never know, because even the programs to count the dead are cut.” www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/h...

Important warning by @stephenwertheim.bsky.social The Trump administration is unlikely to provide the desired “strong” “backstop” to a European “peacekeeping force” in Ukraine. (The same would have been true for a Dems-led US govt.) www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

US aid cuts are having drastic effects in war. Funding for gender equality has been singled out as misaligned with the US administration's values. Within this, sexual & reproductive health is particularly at risk. With it, so are women & girls in conflict. www.crisisgroup.org/global-unite...

If European leaders left Paris without detailed agreement, there was a source of encouragement for some participants: the format of the meeting itself, a manageable gathering of the main security players that may now be able to drive progress From Munich to Paris www.economist.com/incoming/202...

Much talk these days about Ukraine cease-fire, what sorts of deals Trump can make with Putin over everyone's heads, what is & isn't on the table, including peacekeepers, & what Ukraine's European backers should do. A lot of this talk seems a bit muddled? Lotta carts before horses? Hence, a 🧵 1/14

Divisions between the EU and the US on the ICC go way back to the days of George W. Bush. But still noteworthy to see that this is a cause the EU - both @eucopresident.consilium.europa.eu and @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu - swing so clearly behind in contrast to some other Trump moves.

This week, the Trump administration issued NSPM-2, laying out the economic and diplomatic tools of a renewed "Maximum Pressure" campaign, while POTUS @realDonaldTrump called for a "Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement" with Iran.  🧵 on reading the early tea leaves.

The Trump administration has ordered a 90-day pause in virtually all foreign aid. This decision has major implications for Latin America, affecting everything from security operations in Colombia and Haiti to protecting civic space in Venezuela. A 🧵 on its most worrisome effects

Colleagues @crisisgroup.org just published their flagship “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” special briefing – during unsettling times for the continent. Includes, among others, entries on #Sudan, #DRC, #Somalia, the #Sahel and #Cameroon. www.crisisgroup.org/africa/afric...

With war in Ukraine raging on & Donald Trump’s second term as president offering multiple surprises daily, our new @CrisisGroup report on the future of European security predicts a continuing bumpy ride, explains why, & offers some thoughts on how, perhaps to smooth it. Somewhat. A 🧵 1/19

A message to Europe: “Faced with pressure from Trump, Europe should confuse rather than oppose. And the most confusing thing for Trump will be European leaders who focus on their own societies and not on the new American administration.” on.ft.com/4gSdskK

🎧Great to be back with my colleagues Elissa and Olya for a War & Peace podcast episode on the new EU Commission and and how it prepares for a turbulent time ahead. 👇