And this, my friends, is what IR theorists call the alliance dilemma.

Whoever filmed this is a genius.

Less than 24h back in Paris and two “d’où vient ce petit accent”. I love Paris, but I am so sick of not being able to buy an apple without having the conversation about my accent literally every time. 🤦🏽‍♀️🤦🏽‍♀️🤦🏽‍♀️

After reading all the comments about Trump's UNGA speech and the recurring theme that it makes the Gaddifi speech very normal, I am pretty sure that I should not spend my evening watching the replay. Can someone convince me of the opposite?

Not optimistic but thought-provoking.

„Russia should be in no doubt: NATO and Allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions.“ www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...

Maybe he also didn't like the "Europe Calling" Rafale pic which Macron once posted when Lecornu was still defence minister. Iykyk.

In a nutshell: only 8 percent of German spending will go to US companies - the rest is to be allocated to European industry. Quite a statement and a move into the right direction.

Great to see my piece on the EU's contribution to burden-shifting, which I published with @gmfus.bsky.social earlier this month, in the EU's Think Tank review: www.consilium.europa.eu/en/documents...

Huge if this happens: www.politico.eu/article/germ...

EU is diversifying its partnerships in terms of security and trade. Today: conclusion of the free trade agreement with Indonesia ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

@lemonde.fr has a transcript of Macron's speech at the UNGA yesterday night: www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

Brussels playbook did a few numbers for us: Majority of EU MS now recognise Palestine: Belgium, Czechia, Hungary, Cyprus, Spain, Ireland, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Slovenia, Slovakia, Belgium, Portugal, Malta, France and Luxembourg www.politico.eu/newsletter/b...

💬 "EU Security and Defence Partnerships represent a coping mechanism of middle powers to mitigate the potential ramifications of US-China competition", writes Gesine Weber for CSDS. Read csds.vub.be/publication/... @gesineweber.bsky.social

Macron’s speech at the UNGA is scheduled for 21:00 CEST.

It’s a very slippery slope between flattery and selling out Europe’s own interests.

Have you been to France

Very happy Monday: coming back from my write-cation and finding my pic in the top50 (actually top 30) #EUinfluencer on Bluesky!

💯

I often hear my interlocutors from the US say that the EU would go back to Russian gas as soon as there’s a ceasefire. I guess it won’t. www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

Europeans increasingly refer to the “CRINK alliance” or the “axis of upheaval” when talking about China, Russia, Iran & North Korea. I don’t think that’s helpful - just cringe. Here’s why: geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/crink-is-c...

Yet another proof that EU China policy is very often a function of transatlantic relations. Not necessarily good for Europe.

And another policy brief from yours truly: deep dive into the EU Security & Defence Partnerships, their functions, and their implications in a changing European & global security order:

❗New CSDS Policy Brief❗ In our latest offering, Gesine Weber analyses the challenges and promise of the EU's Security and Defence Partnerships in an era of strategic rivalry. Give it a read! Read csds.vub.be/publication/... @gesineweber.bsky.social

New policy brief on the EU's role as a security actor in Europe and the Indo-Pacific:

"...SDPs can help Europe bridge that gap. An example could be crisis management..." Interesting point in an interesting paper. #CrisisManagement & #CSDP are hardly mentioned in #EU defence nowadays but I agree with @gesineweber.bsky.social: this is an area for more partnerships beyond #NATO #EU.

Watch that space.

Published a short take for The Interpreter @lowyinstitute.bsky.social how uncertainty about US grand strategy makes it more difficult to adapt European strategy to the Indo-Pacific: www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Tentative allocation of SAFE funds for defence procurement has been published. Top beneficiaries: - Poland - Romania - France/ Hungary (exactly same amount) - Italy defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/eu-defence-i...

SOTEU morning, meanwhile at the Eastern flank...

SOTEU speech is over, text is online here. My take: maybe von der Leyen's strongest SOTEU speech. "Europe's independence moment" as a timely theme. Lots of measures that I didn't expect in this scope. A few thoughts: 🧵 commission.europa.eu/document/714...

Really good thread with major elements of #SOTEU:

Watching SOTEU this morning - instead of live-posting, I’ll write a short recap/ thoughts later. I’ll be following all things security & defence, China, Europe in the world 🌏🇪🇺

With my colleagues Martin Quencez and @gesineweber.bsky.social, we analyse what the fall of the Bayrou government — and the appointment of Lecornu as the new PM — mean for France’s domestic and international politics. Spoiler: France’s problems aren’t going away. www.gmfus.org/news/frances...

Did someone say confidently in an interview earlier today that she doesn't see whom Macron could nominate as a prime minister able to get a parliamentary majority? ... me voilà. Still have doubts that Lecornu will manage this.

Mark your calendars, this is tomorrow!

These numbers are pretty wild. France could be expected, but levels in Germany (although we could see change here) and Poland are... impressive. If we say that Zeitenwende happens in the mind, the public seems to be faster than some policy-makers.

Very good illustration how fragmentation in Europe jeopardises its role and perception as a global actor.

100%. Europe's problem is a collective action problem: it's utterly bad in jointly mobilising resources and think strategically about its power.

Pleased to see more research challenging the one-dimensional view on China in the US (and increasingly in Europe, because Europeans too often simply take over US narratives). Deep dive by @stimsoncenter.bsky.social experts: www.stimson.org/2025/rethink...

100%. I think AI images are useful for things that would anyway not construct a snapshot of real life (example: a chessboard with figures pained in flag colours), but I personally never use it to depict IRL people/ situations.

Bluesky FINALLY has the "save post" function (bottom right of a post). Game changer to remember all the papers I want to read but might never find time for.

This is clear: 364 MPs against Bayrou gov, 280 would have been enough to make the gov fall. Now up to Macron to react.

Vote on the non-confidence motion will be closed at 18:50. My guess: government will fall, Macron will rather form a new one than dissolve the parliament

Piece by the Iranian foreign minister in @theguardian.com - of course it's government position, but I've rarely read such a misunderstanding of E3s position. If there's one issue Europeans have been *extremely* critical about, that's the end of JCPoA by Trump I. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

French prime minister Bayrou is now speaking at the French national assembly - the parliament will later vote on non-confidence question/ motion. My guess: government will be voted out, but Macron will not dissolve the parliament. 🧵if you're into French politics: www.lemonde.fr/politique/li...

Interesting (French) perspective on German defence policy: "Germany positions itself today as new military power". I am a bit more sceptical: first, investments need to be made over the long-term. And second, it will need political will and signalling. www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...

Your regular reminder to disconnect on the weekend and do things that are good for you. ☀️

Coalition of the willing meeting today in Paris is over. Livestream below: Key elements: - 26 states ready to deploy troops: Europe, Asia, Canada - deployment ONLY "on the day after the ceasefire" More: 🧵 www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...

I'm normally a big fan of Euractiv, but I find it immensely problematic to have government-sponsored content on media - and this goes, by the way, for any kind of government, incl. European governments. Tells a lot about journalistic standards of those who publish such content.